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Sudden Changes in Venezuela’s Political Situation and Risks to China’s Interests

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How will the Venezuela’s political change affect the world and China?

Zhang Lubo, Ma Xiaolin

On January 3, the U.S. “Delta Force” carried out a military operation inside Venezuela, abducting the incumbent president Maduro and his wife and rapidly transporting them back to the United States, directly placing them into the Drug Enforcement Administration under the U.S. Department of Justice. U.S. President Trump subsequently stated that the United States would “manage” Venezuela until what he called a “safe transition” is achieved.

At present, Venezuela’s Supreme Court has announced that Vice President Rodríguez will serve as acting president. The existing power structure still refuses to accept U.S. intervention. Formally speaking, the state apparatus has not yet collapsed, and the military system has not openly defected. It is impossible that the Trump administration spent months planning merely to seize Maduro; there must inevitably be further action plans. Although Venezuela’s opposition has not formed a single or unified political entity capable of taking over the state, it can serve as political components that the U.S. side can “assemble and use.” The United States is highly likely to continue controlling the situation in Venezuela and attempt to promote some form of arrangement for a “joint transitional government,” and Venezuela may experience a political transformation leaning toward the United States. This sudden change not only provides a demonstration and momentum for right-wing forces in Latin America, but also constitutes a substantive deterrent to left-wing or non–pro-U.S. governments in the region, and will impact China’s interests in Venezuela and even throughout South America.

1. Why Was the U.S. “Decapitation Operation” Able to Succeed So Easily?

From the operational level, this U.S. action was clearly long premeditated and meticulously planned. Special forces were able to complete infiltration, control the target, and withdraw rapidly within a short period of time, indicating that intelligence gathering and inducement preparations were sufficient. This was a systematic operation carried out around clear political objectives. Its focus was not on “eliminating the target,” but rather on systematically creating real conditions, political interfaces, and narratives of legitimacy for controlling Venezuela.

After Maduro was transferred, public opinion operations were rapidly rolled out in coordination. A large number of video clips showing Venezuela’s citizens “cheering” and “celebrating” circulated widely on social media. At the international public opinion level, “popular will” was emphasized and amplified to the greatest extent, thereby weakening the legitimacy foundation of the Maduro regime. The opposition and political forces in exile are striving to compete for legitimacy and future political roles.

It is worth noting that, according to the Associated Press, Maduro and his wife were captured at a residence inside a military camp. Being able to abduct a country’s president from a military camp within just three hours virtually confirms the existence of core insiders who had been turned. This not only shows that the United States is not without points of breakthrough within the Venezuelan military, at least possessing room for maneuver at certain nodes, but also means that it has a certain degree of grasp over the subsequent situation.

Therefore, external observers speculate that the candidates the United States may support include opposition leader María Machado, or Edmundo Urrutia, who has already gone into exile abroad and obtained “electoral legitimacy” endorsements in some Western countries. Trump himself has stated that he will assess “whether Venezuela should be led by opposition leader Machado.”

At present, Venezuela’s opposition exists in three realistic forms. Machado belongs to the symbolic type of opposition. She has a certain degree of social appeal domestically, especially among the middle class and urban strata, and is adept at political mobilization and discursive expression. However, she lacks control over the military, fiscal, and energy systems, and is more like a “symbol of legitimacy” rather than a governor. Edmundo represents an exiled technocratic opposition; his advantage lies in having already been “legitimized” within the political systems of the United States and the European Union, making him usable for interfacing with the IMF, the World Bank, and multinational energy companies. The most critical and most dangerous category is the “marginal people” or swing faction of the old system, including technocrats within the former Chavist system and local military and political personnel. This category can not only maintain the minimum operation of the state apparatus, but is also the core variable capable of determining “whether a transitional government is operable.”

Taking all views together, it is unlikely that the Maduro system will collapse immediately. A mere change of leadership is insufficient to terminate the structural power network. Moreover, due to deep divisions and obstacles arising from strategic disagreements, it is temporarily difficult to form a single or unified opposition to take over the state. The conditions for ending the power struggle are not in place. In the short term, Venezuela’s power pattern will most likely continue to revolve around repeated tug-of-war and localized turbulence between the old power core and the opposition.

What can be determined is that Trump’s adoption of extreme actions is carried out around clear strategic objectives. Its core intentions are at least at three levels: first, to “solve” the root causes of drug trafficking and immigration issues, thereby securing political bargaining chips for the midterm elections; second, at the economic and energy level, to compete for and reshape control over Venezuela’s oil resources, obtaining tangible benefits for U.S. capital and its own energy security. Trump himself has clearly stated to U.S. media that he “will deeply intervene in Venezuela’s oil industry”; third, internationally, to establish U.S. hegemony in Latin America at the lowest cost, exclude extra-regional forces, deter the Latin American left, and at the same time provide clear political support and security guarantees for pro-U.S. right-wing forces.

2. Possible Directions of the Development of the Situation in Venezuela

Most observers believe that before institutional restructuring is completed, Venezuela’s original power structure, military loyalty system, judicial and intelligence institutions will still determine the actual future trajectory. In this sense, military loyalty is the key variable determining the survival of the current regime. If the military continues to remain loyal to Maduro and his successors, the United States may not necessarily be able to achieve its goal of controlling Venezuela.

At present, it appears unlikely that the Trump administration will launch a large-scale ground invasion. This would neither conform to the current limits of U.S. domestic political tolerance nor to the strategic reality of multi-front global competition. The nature of this operation more closely resembles an attempt to leverage changes in political structure at the lowest possible military cost. Some analyses suggest that the fragile power coordination relationship between the vice president and the military high command is facing severe tests, and the situation has entered a zone of high instability. Overall judgment indicates that future evolution broadly presents two main paths.

One possibility is that the military chooses compromise under real pressure. Some senior military officials may, based on considerations of vested interests and personal security, judge that continued resistance no longer yields substantive benefits or meaning, and may even believe that overall resistance will and social foundations are rapidly eroding, thus choosing to detach from the original power structure and seek maximization of personal interests.

Under this scenario, the United States may reach tacit understandings with some remnants of the Maduro system, promoting the establishment of a compromise-based coalition government; or, in the role of “supervisor” or “security guarantor,” take the lead in forming a temporary transitional government and push for so-called “democratic elections,” shaping legitimacy at the procedural and discursive levels. The outcome would almost without suspense result in the victory of pro-U.S. forces.

Another possibility is that the military remains loyal to the Maduro government and chooses to confront the United States. This arrest constitutes an open violation of national sovereignty. If the vice president can, in the name of national righteousness, coordinate the military high command, and if military control retains resilience, the situation will rapidly enter a higher-intensity stage of uncertainty. Under this path, the United States retains at least three operational options.

First, the United States may continue to advance a “decapitation strategy.” Trump himself has publicly stated that “if necessary, the United States is prepared to launch a second round of attacks.” The U.S. side is highly likely to continue striking key individuals and nodes.

Second, the United States may also cultivate or activate proxy armed forces within or around Venezuela, continuously consuming the current regime through a process of “civil war–ization.”

Third, there is also a relatively “low-intensity” variant, in which the opposition leverages momentum to mobilize the public, promotes opposition unity, and continuously challenges the current regime through political legitimacy offensives, forming a “tug-of-war–style confrontation” that similarly, in stages and localized forms, results in substantive submission to the United States.

In addition, it cannot currently be ruled out that Maduro may be used as a hostage to negotiate with Venezuela’s current regime or even with other interested parties. This may be the most “peaceful” approach. Through conditional exchanges, the other side may be forced to make concessions in power structure, policy orientation, or international strategy.

However, regardless of how the above paths evolve, Venezuela has in fact entered a state of being highly influenced and constrained by the United States, and its space for strategic autonomy is being systematically compressed.

3. Negative Impacts on China’s Interests

(I) Direct impacts. Whether the current Venezuelan government is maintained, transformed, or overthrown, the impact on China is obvious. It represents a systemic shock with strong spillover effects, simultaneously affecting multiple dimensions including personnel safety, geopolitical positioning, diplomatic principles, and economic interests.

First, risks to personnel and asset security have risen significantly. The most direct and urgent impact lies in the realm of personnel and asset safety. At present, the Chinese embassy has urgently reminded citizens to “temporarily refrain from traveling to Venezuela” and has requested those already there to “stay away from conflict areas.” This extreme incident will inevitably cause operational disruptions for Chinese-funded enterprises on the ground, project stagnation, and asset depreciation, while the property safety of overseas Chinese residents will also be difficult to guarantee. Rising security uncertainty will weaken medium- and long-term cooperation expectations, causing projects that were already progressing slowly to further lose continuity. If the situation deteriorates, China cannot rule out the need to initiate large-scale evacuation mechanisms, which would bring considerable short-term economic losses and significantly raise Chinese enterprises’ risk assessments regarding investment in Venezuela and even the entire region.

Second, a major setback to geopolitics and China’s Latin America strategy. In 2023, China and Venezuela had just elevated their bilateral relationship to an “all-weather strategic partnership,” a designation that is relatively rare in China’s diplomacy toward Latin America and carries clear political and strategic symbolic significance. Maduro’s direct arrest delivers a frontal blow to this high-level partnership in practical terms, and further signifies a severe setback to the camp of “ironclad friends” in Latin America. If the Venezuelan regime is forced to restructure, or if a new government with explicit anti-China or de-Sinicization tendencies emerges, the political mutual trust, policy coordination, and strategic depth that China has accumulated in the region over many years may be systematically weakened in a short period of time.

Third, challenges to diplomatic principles and the international order. Venezuela has submitted a complaint to the United Nations Security Council, in essence seeking assistance from China and Russia. However, the United States possesses veto power, and the institutional space for maneuver is inherently limited. At the level of principles, the principle of “non-interference in internal affairs” has shifted from “I do not interfere” to “I advocate that no power should interfere in other countries’ internal affairs,” thereby supporting countries’ independent choice of development paths and opposing external intervention. The United States’ use of military means to arrest the sitting leader of a sovereign state recognized by China constitutes a direct shock to this principle. If China’s response lacks sufficient intensity, it will weaken its moral appeal among developing countries. Against the backdrop of this incident, Trump has continued to issue threats against Cuba, and his administration’s new version of the national security strategy has clearly proposed to “revitalize U.S. leadership in the Western Hemisphere” and to treat curbing China’s influence as an important objective.

Fourth, direct impacts on energy security and debt recovery. Venezuela remains one of China’s important sources of crude oil. Turmoil will significantly increase the risk of energy supply disruptions and heighten instability in China’s energy import structure. Over many years, China has provided Venezuela with investments and loans on the scale of tens of billions, and has participated in a large number of infrastructure and energy development projects. These projects were already progressing slowly due to Venezuela’s economic crisis; now, under conditions of high political uncertainty, they face the risk of complete stagnation or repudiation. Whether state-owned oil enterprises or private capital involved in related projects, all will face real pressures of extended investment recovery cycles, asset devaluation, or even losses.

Ma Xiaolin, Professor at Zhejiang International Studies University, Director of the Institute for Mediterranean Studies

Zhang Lubo, Associate Researcher at the Institute for Mediterranean Studies, Zhejiang International Studies University; Deputy Director of the Latin American Studies Center, School of European and American Languages and Cultures, Guangxi Foreign Languages University

Opinion

India’s space sector: A launchpad for global partnerships

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Ambassador Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and the ASEAN and African Union missions

Growing competition in outer space provides India with a unique opportunity to shape a narrative in which collaboration, rather than confrontation, drives space exploration. Recognised as a trustworthy and cost-effective spacefaring nation, India is now well placed to transform its technological advances into enduring international partnerships that contribute to scientific progress, economic growth, and sustainable development.

India’s journey into space has been distinctive. Unlike many space programmes that emerged from Cold War rivalries, India’s programme was conceived as an instrument of national development. Dr. Vikram Sarabhai anchored India’s space vision in practical applications that would improve the lives of ordinary people. Under his leadership, satellites were developed to strengthen communications, weather forecasting, disaster management, healthcare, agriculture and education. This development-oriented philosophy remains central to India’s space programme and resonates strongly with the needs of countries in the Global South, which seek practical applications of space technology rather than prestige alone.

Today, India’s achievements extend  beyond developmental applications. The Chandrayaan missions, the Mars Orbiter Mission, the Aditya-L1 solar observatory, and the forthcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme have established India as a nation capable of executing sophisticated and reliable space missions. Chandrayaan-3’s successful soft landing near the Moon’s south pole placed India among an exclusive group of space powers while demonstrating that world-class innovation can be achieved at comparatively modest cost.

India’s growing credibility comes at a time when the global space economy is expanding rapidly. Valued at over US$600 billion today and projected to approach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, the sector is increasingly driven by commercial activity in satellite communications, Earth observation, navigation, climate services, broadband connectivity, and emerging fields such as in-orbit servicing and lunar exploration. Many countries aspire to participate but lack indigenous capabilities. They seek dependable long-term partners rather than merely launch providers.

India possesses the capabilities to meet these requirements. The liberalisation of the space sector in 2020 transformed the ecosystem by opening it to private participation. The establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the expanding commercial role of NewSpace India Limited, and the growth of private enterprises have created one of the world’s most dynamic emerging space ecosystems. Indian startups are developing launch vehicles, satellite platforms, geospatial applications and propulsion technologies that are attracting global investment and customers. Companies such as Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and Agnikul Cosmos have demonstrated that Indian private enterprise can compete internationally in advanced space technologies.

The next step is to internationalise this ecosystem.

Rather than positioning itself only as a low-cost launch destination, India will offer comprehensive partnerships encompassing satellite design, launch services, mission operations, ground stations, astronaut training, capacity building and downstream applications in agriculture, disaster management and maritime security. Such integrated partnerships would be valuable for countries across the Global South and the Indo-Pacific seeking affordable, customised and reliable technologies to meet their development priorities.

India has demonstrated the diplomatic value of such cooperation. Through the South Asia Satellite, it provided communication and developmental benefits to neighbouring countries. Indian launch vehicles have successfully placed hundreds of foreign satellites into orbit for governments, universities and commercial operators around the world. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords reflects its willingness to participate in the peaceful exploration of the Moon through international collaboration. Cooperation with  NASA, the European Space Agency and JAXA has strengthened India’s scientific and technological capabilities.

These partnerships reinforce India’s standing as a leading voice of the Global South. India offers development partnerships based on affordability, reliability and mutual respect rather than creating technological dependence. Space cooperation has therefore become an increasingly important instrument of Indian diplomacy, strengthening bilateral relationships while delivering tangible developmental benefits.

To realise its full potential, India will aim to sustain the momentum of reform. Faster regulatory approvals, greater access to venture capital, stronger intellectual property protection, and closer collaboration among research institutions, industry and academia will be essential. Public procurement policies would continue supporting Indian startups, enabling them to scale up, innovate and integrate into global supply chains.

India is positioned to play a larger role in shaping the governance of outer space. Orbital congestion, space debris, responsible resource utilisation and equitable access to emerging space opportunities are becoming pressing international concerns. As space activities expand, there will be an increasing need for countries capable of building consensus on responsible norms and practices. India’s long-standing commitment to the peaceful uses of outer space, combined with its growing technological capabilities, equips it to contribute meaningfully to the development of rules that promote transparency, sustainability and equitable access.

The coming decade will determine not only which countries lead in space but also how space is governed. With its scientific capabilities, entrepreneurial ecosystem and international credibility, India is uniquely placed to bridge the gap between established and emerging space nations. By building collaborative partnerships founded on inclusivity, mutual benefit and innovation, India can transform its space programme into a major pillar of its global engagement.

In an increasingly divided world, India’s space sector offers a powerful reminder that the greatest achievements in space are those that bring nations together. That may well become India’s most enduring contribution to humanity’s next frontier.

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Great powers and the fierce rivalry in Africa

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In tandem with the retreat of US imperialism and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, the rivalry among the world’s great powers is intensifying across vast geographies and divergent fronts alike. From Africa to Central Asia, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, an acute contest is unfolding—most conspicuously between the United States and China.

History instructs us that wherever great power rivalry takes root, peace remains elusive. Stability cannot endure there. Wars, internal conflicts, coups d’état, and the mass migrations they inevitably trigger dominate the horizon. Nor do great powers desire the cultivation of participatory democracy, human rights, the rule of law, or class consciousness in these lands. Instead, they bolster dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, totalitarian systems, and repressive governance. The imperialist powers harbor no concern for the scarcity of water, drought, or famine in Africa. Their focus is solely fixed on exploitation, plunder, pillaging the resources of the nations upon which they descend, and capturing their domestic markets.

Africa holds singular importance in this context. It commands attention simultaneously by virtue of its sheer expanse, its demographic weight, and its subterranean wealth. In the rivalry across this ancient and impoverished continent, the United States and China lead the vanguard. Russia, too, makes notable maneuvers, though on a less extensive scale. Between the United States and China, the race is particularly fierce regarding the extraction, processing, and conveyance of subterranean resources to world markets.

Africa—endowed with abundant mineral wealth, a population approaching 1.5 billion, and critical strategic importance along global trade routes—whet the appetites of capitalist, advanced, industrialized, imperialist states as a vast, populous, and expanding market. Geopolitically as well, its position cannot be ignored. Africa’s wealth in rare earth elements, precious minerals such as diamonds and gold, and strategic minerals indispensable to advanced technologies—notably copper, cobalt, and lithium—is indisputable.

AFRICA CARRIES NO WEIGHT IN GLOBAL POLITICS

Unlike other continents such as Europe, Asia, or the Americas, Africa possesses no single country that commands prominence in global politics or the world economy. Nor does Africa host an alliance, international organization, or bloc of comparable global stature. In the Americas, there stands a superpower: the United States. In Asia, there are great powers: Russia and China, with India also ascending. In Europe, major, consequential powers endure: the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Yet on the African continent, no such states exist. What exists in Africa is the rivalry of non-African great powers. Even the 55-member African Union, the institutional body of the continent’s nations, remains far from exerting any real influence—not only in global politics, but even across the African continent itself.

Over the past fifteen to twenty years, Africa has undergone substantial upheavals. Armed conflicts, civil wars, and violence have become pervasive. From Ethiopia to Somalia, Libya to Sudan, armed hostilities have claimed countless lives, destabilized governments, and provoked massive waves of displacement. Terrorist organizations have seized upon these conditions as an opportune opening, and the great powers, in turn, have instrumentalized these terror networks.

In Africa, former nineteenth- and twentieth-century colonial powers such as Britain and France indulge in reveries of bygone eras. They attempt to assert themselves, yet their efforts prove futile. Germany, as Europe’s leading economic, industrial, and technological powerhouse, takes a keen interest in Africa; yet despite this attention, its institutional knowledge and historical experience regarding the continent pale in comparison to those of the British and French. Italy strives to act, but lacks the requisite capacity. The Netherlands and Belgium, once deeply entrenched in Africa, are far removed from their imperial past. Spain and Portugal assert no claim to global primacy. All of these nations languish, to borrow Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar’s phrase, in “a vague longing for a bygone past.”

China, well aware of Africa’s significance, is investing heavily across the continent. It stands as Africa’s largest trading partner and the primary destination for the continent’s exports. In the provision of loans, credit facilities, and grants to African states, it has outpaced Western institutions. China’s investment and foreign aid capacity, economic leverage, and extensive commercial ties naturally consolidate its political and diplomatic influence across Africa, elevating its visibility and prestige. Under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing continues to finance large-scale infrastructure investments as well as major communications and transport projects.

THE FEROCITY AND DIMENSIONS OF THE RIVALRY

It is, of course, impossible for Russia to mount massive economic investments, conduct extensive aid operations, or sustain the volume of trade in Africa that China commands. Consequently, it seeks to distinguish itself by guaranteeing the security of local leaders, corporate enterprises, and ruling elites, relying predominantly on private military companies (the operations of the Wagner Group being a case in point). Russia has deployed mercenaries to Mali and the Central African Republic.

The United States, for its part, endeavors to counter China’s expanding influence, economic footprint, visibility, and public diplomacy initiatives in Africa, while simultaneously laboring to reinforce its own economic and political ties with African states. One need only recall that the United States, having intervened in Libya in 2011 through NATO, has directly struck ISIS targets in Somalia. The strategic depth of Washington’s relationship with Cairo is likewise well known.

The United States, China, and Russia also stand out prominently in arms sales to African nations. As the great power rivalry on the continent grows ever sharper, the spectrum of contestation widens accordingly. Cultural rivalry is superimposed upon economic, political, and military dimensions. Because every great power seeking to expand its sphere of influence and reach is determined to block the advance of its competitors, Africa serves both as the stage for and the witness to this unsparing contest. Some experts explain this rivalry through the lens of a new strain of colonialism; others account for it by pointing to the inherent nature, complexity, and multifaceted character of competition between imperialist metropoles.

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The women who refuse to be erased: On Japan’s surrender anniversary, the fight over wartime sexual slavery continues

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BUSAN, South Korea — On the day Japan marks the 81st anniversary of its surrender in World War Two, a conference room in Busan’s city council building has become the latest front in a battle over memory.

Allan Wilson, Journalist

Last month, on 23 July, academics, activists and lawmakers gathered here for a symposium on one of the war’s most painful legacies: the estimated tens of thousands of women — euphemistically labelled “comfort women” — forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army. The event was co-hosted by the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia division and the Korean Women’s Forum.

“The records of the Japanese military’s comfort women are historical assets that the international community must preserve together,” Nam Myung-sook, the Busan city councillor who co-organised the symposium, told the gathering. “Social consensus must be broadened.”

Her words were aimed at more than the audience in the room.

For three decades, survivors and their advocates have pressed Japan for a full and unequivocal accounting. They have met a familiar pattern: moments of apparent progress — the 1993 Kono statement acknowledging military involvement, the 2015 bilateral agreement with South Korea — followed by retreat. Japanese officials continue to dispute the term “sexual slavery.” Textbooks soften the language. Senior politicians visit Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are honoured alongside the dead.

The symposium came as UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee convened in Busan, and the timing was deliberate. One of the gathering’s stated goals was to revive the push to have comfort women records inscribed on UNESCO’s Memory of the World register — an effort Japan has repeatedly blocked.

“Our aim is to reaffirm the historical facts of comfort women (受害) to the international community and explore directions that contribute to peace and human rights,” said Yu Ying-mo, senior adviser to the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia region, in remarks prepared for the event.

A statue, a warning

The symposium also addressed an incident that has become a diplomatic flashpoint: the recent removal of a comfort women memorial statue in Taiwan.

The statue, one of dozens erected across East Asia and beyond, was taken down in recent months. Organisers in Busan described the removal as “an erroneous approach that erases historical wounds and weakens collective memory,” according to the symposium’s programme.

For advocates, the Taiwan case illustrates what happens when political pressure is allowed to dictate historical memory. “Statues, memorial halls, and archives related to comfort women are important spaces of memory that testify to the victims’ suffering and history,” the Carter Human Rights Center said in its written address. “They must be respected.”

Dozens of comfort women memorials now stand in cities from Seoul to San Francisco to Berlin. Each has become a site of diplomatic friction: Japan’s government has consistently objected to them, arguing they perpetuate what it calls an inaccurate narrative.

The shrinking window

Time is running out. Of the few hundred women who came forward in the 1990s, the number of surviving registered victims in South Korea has dwindled to single digits.

This demographic reality has injected new urgency into the preservation effort. Shim Ok-ju, a research professor at George Mason University Korea, told the symposium that the focus must now shift from oral testimony — soon to be lost — to documentation and education.

Seo Kyung-soon, a professor at Pukyong National University, presented findings from the so-called “Gwanbu Trial” records — a series of postwar legal proceedings in which comfort women sought compensation through Japanese courts. The documents, she argued, contain incontrovertible evidence of state orchestration.

A designated discussant panel followed, bringing together Kim Tae-wan, a political science professor at Dong-eui University; Kim Kyung-hee, an independent researcher; and Ahn Jun-young, a journalist from the Busan Ilbo newspaper. The format was designed to bridge academia and public consciousness — to test whether scholarly findings could survive the scrutiny of working journalists and political scientists.

The international dimension

The comfort women issue has never been purely bilateral. In 1996, the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women concluded that the system constituted “military sexual slavery.” In 2022, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women urged Japan to “ensure that the issue is accurately reflected in school curricula.”

Yet the gap between international consensus and Japanese government policy remains wide. Prime ministerial statements offer “apologies and remorse” but stop short of accepting legal responsibility. Reparations have come from private funds, not the state.

For organisers of the Busan symposium, the path forward runs through multilateral institutions. UNESCO recognition, they argue, would make historical revisionism harder to sustain. But Japan has made clear it will oppose any such move, as it did when Chinese documents related to the 1937 Nanjing Massacre were inscribed in 2015.

“Facing history squarely and respecting it is a fundamental value that the international community should share,” the symposium’s organisers concluded.

This 15 August, as Japan observes its National Memorial Service for the War Dead, the women who survived — and those who did not — will be remembered in rooms like the one in Busan. Their numbers are dwindling. The question is whether their story will outlast them.

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