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Syrian government collapse – future of foreign jihadists against and in favor of Assad

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Syria is one of the centers of gathering of people and extremist Islamic jihadist groups that have been fighting against each other for at least a decade with the support or opposition of the government under the leadership of Bashar Assad. These groups played a significant role in the emergence and suppression of ISIS and also in the Syrian civil wars and all its consequences.

The fall of the government of the Assad family, which had become a full-fledged dictator, and his treatment of some of his opponents was extremely disappointing and far from human values, has so far brought a smile to the faces of a large number of Syrian citizens and hope for change among some political circles. But can the opposition of Assad, led by the Syrian Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), bring the broken ship of this country to a safe shore where there is peace in the shadow of democratic values? This is a question that time will answer.

According to independent evaluations and the opinion of some security experts, proxy groups and foreign mercenaries played the same role as the army and internal opposition forces in supporting and opposing the Assad government. In this article we attempt to make briefly investigate the future of proxy and mercenary jihadist groups on both sides of the front and what role these groups will play in the future of Syria and to what extent they will affect the security of the Middle East and the international region.

Who are the foreign jihadist forces?

At outset, Assad’s supporters:

The government led by Bashar Assad, which was effectively overthrown on December 8, 2024, had various supporters, including governments (Russia and the Islamic Republic of Iran) and proxy mercenary groups. In this article, how governments support official channels will not be discussed, but proxy groups will be emphasized.

Militant groups composed of foreign citizens were mainly created, equipped and supported under the leadership of the Quds branch of the Revolutionary Guards of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The four important groups that seriously supported the Assad government in the civil war and the fight against ISIS include the Fatemiyoun Army, the Zainabiyoun Army, the Hosseinyoun Army, and Hezbollah.

Fatemiyoun army

“Lashkar Fatemiyoun”, based on the information published by the commanders and the group itself, consisted of Afghan immigrant citizens who were looking for jobs in different sectors such as construction, stone cutting, etc. before joining this group in Iran. The living conditions for Afghan immigrants in Iran were getting worse day by day due to various reasons, including economic pressures on the Iranian government and society and the unofficial anti-immigrant policy of the Iranian government and citizens.

Although some of the Iranian media close to the Iranian government stated that the presence of these people was spontaneous among the members of the Mohammad Corps (which was created to fight the Soviet Union forces in Afghanistan) and claimed that this group was formed to defend the shrine of Hazrat Zainab. There are reports that show that with the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East, especially the emergence of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, Iran, using economic compulsions and occasionally using religious motives, tried to recruit people from among the Afghan immigrants and formed the Fatemiyoun Army to fight.

Fatemiyoun, whose number is not precisely known, is still present in the Middle East and is known as an important proxy military capacity of Iran. However, as seen in the recent clashes and the attack by the HTS, no fronts have been reported from this group. Some videos of the presence of members of this group in Syria were published on social networks, but Fatemiyoun has not reported any kind of resistance or support to the Assad government. Reports indicate that Iran has transferred all members of this group to Iraq.

It is noteworthy that during the entire period of activity of this group, there was no official and confirmed report of their presence in Afghanistan, and the security forces of the previous government of Afghanistan did not record any anti-government and security activities by the members of this group inside Afghanistan.

Zainebiyoun Brigade or Zainbyoun’s army

Lashkar Zainbyoun is composed of Pakistani citizens, which was formed under the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to fight against ISIS and support the Assad government. The recruitment of the members of this group was different from the members of Fatemiyoun. Unlike Fatemiyoun, whose members were recruited from among Afghan immigrants living in Iran, members of Lashkar Zainbyoun were mainly recruited from Pakistani citizens, especially from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Karachi and Lahore regions.

The government of Pakistan declared this group as a banned terrorist group and arrested several of its important members in the last two years. The information published on social networks shows that the people applying for membership in Lashkar Zainbion should be between 15 and 35 years old and they are supposed to be paid 120,000 Pakistani rupees per month, which was equivalent to 1,200 US dollars in 2015.

This group also played a prominent role in the war against Daesh in Syria and Iraq alongside the government and proxy forces, but like Fatemiyoun, no resistance or support to the Assad government was reported in the recent conflicts in Syria. Due to the fact that the members of this group are known as a terrorist group, they will no longer be able to return to their country.

Hosseiniun army, Azerbaijani Armed Forces

Hosseiniyon group, consisting of citizens of the Republic of Azerbaijan, under the leadership of Tawheed Ebrahimi (Ibrahim Bailey), a Shia cleric trained in Mashhad seminary, was active in Syria along with other proxy groups of Iran.

This group also played a serious role in the war against ISIS along with other government and proxy forces in Syria and Iraq. Similar to other groups, it has always been used to secure the interests of  Iran and the Syrian government.

Due to its relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran, the government of the Republic of Azerbaijan has monitored the activities of this group inside its country as an illegal armed group and has arrested a number of its members.

There are reports that show that no reaction or resistance was observed from this group in the recent conflicts in Syria, and the leader of this group is currently inside Iran, according to Iranian media reports.

Syrian Hezbollah

Although some analysts claim that the members of this group are Syrian citizens, the available information shows that a large part of the members of this group were Lebanese citizens. This group, like other proxy groups, played an important role in defending the Assad government during the civil war and the war with ISIS, but no reaction has been reported from it in the recent conflicts that led to the fall of the Assad government.

Now, the opponents of Assad’s regime

The opposition front of Assad is also made up of a large gathering of Sunni extremist Islamists. Along with groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the current ruler of Syria, Jaysh al-Watani and others, a significant number of citizens of Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uighurs from China and Pakistan are actively present.

Although these groups did not independently have separate organizations and fronts from HTS, like Assad’s supporters and proxy groups of Iran, extensive information in the mass media shows that foreign citizens played a significant role in Tahrir al-Sham’s rise to power and the fall of the Assad government.

These groups mainly include the following outfits.

Citizens of Afghanistan

Simultaneously with the advance of the Tahrir al-Sham group in Syria, many videos and visual and textual information about the presence of Afghan citizens with the members of Tahrir al-Sham were published. These citizens, who mainly spoke Pashto, published messages of congratulations and happiness in front of their compatriots in front of the Assad government, which in many cases referred to that government as “apostate”. These videos and images were widely reproduced by Taliban members and supporters on social networks.

Citizens of Pakistan

Pakistani citizens, especially residents of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, were also widely present in support of Assad’s opponents. Many videos and pictures of the presence of these people were published on social networks.

In the Pashto language, they called the successive victories of their train mates “Jihad against the “apostate” and even said in a strong tone in one of the videos: “I will kill every Shiite I catch.” There is no exact information on the exact number of Pakistani citizens who were present with the HTS group, but the activity and moment-to-moment dissemination on social networks shows that the presence of these people was significant.

Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad

This group is made up of citizens of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, who have been in northern Syria for a few years alongside Jabhat al-Nusra and Tahrir al-Sham, and even some of its members have been with ISIS. The members of this group, to show their presence and power, informed their progress moment by moment while wearing regular military uniforms.

This group was included in the list of terrorist organizations by the United Nations Security Council and the United States Department of State two years ago due to its subversive activities and connection with terrorist organizations such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

Imam Bukhari Jammat

Although most of the activities of members of Imam Bukhari’s Jammat have been reported in Afghanistan and this group is considered one of the allies of the Taliban, some reports have reported the presence of members of this group, who are mainly citizens of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia, alongside Tahrir al-Sham.

The United States Department of State, in the explanation it published about this group, introduced it as one of the large groups of Uzbek citizens in Syria that work in close cooperation with Jabhat al-Nusra and al-Qaeda. This group has also been recognized as a terrorist organization by the United Nations Security Council and the United States Department of State.

East Turkestan Islamic Movement

According to reliable reports, including the report of the United Nations Security Council, the leadership base of this group is in Afghanistan, but some analysts also confirm the large presence of this group in Syria.

This group consists of Uyghurs who believe that they are fighting for the independence of China’s Xinjiang, which is also referred to as Eastern Turkestan. But the activities of this group show that this issue is just a slogan and in fact it has done the least activity inside or against the interests of China and the majority of its activities are in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Syria in association with other terrorist groups such as the Taliban, al-Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra and It has recently been reported alongside Tahrir al-Sham.

The members of this group were widely active alongside the Tahrir al-Sham group to overthrow the Assad government. This group is also on the list of terrorist organizations of the United Nations Security Council and the United States Department of State.

Jaish al-Jihad of Imam Abu Hanifah

This group is composed of citizens of Tajikistan, which works alongside extremist Islamist groups such as Tahrir al-Sham in Syria. Some analysts who have followed the activities of this group say that the members of this group advertise more on social networks to attract and attract people from among the citizens of Tajikistan, and they have become more active in the recent war between Tahrir al-Sham and the government of Bashar Assad.

There is not much information about the activities of this group in Afghanistan or Tajikistan, but so far the most famous jihadist group among the citizens of Tajikistan is the Ansarullah Movement, which operates as one of the supporters of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

What will be the fate of foreign jihadist groups?

With the fall of the Assad government and the presence of extremist Islamist groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the region and the world expect the new Syrian government to form a government based on the people’s vote and remove any threat against the region and the world.

However, a review of the activity records of groups aligned with Tahrir al-Sham and this group itself shows that democratic principles and government formation based on people’s votes are alien to the views of these groups.

Currently, power is in the hands of a coalition of extremist Islamist groups that are listed as terrorist organizations by the United Nations and many countries around the world, mainly because of their subversive activities.

It is clear that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, contrary to its claim, alone and relying only on its human and financial resources was not able to achieve this amazing success and is not able to maintain it even now.

This group owes the cooperation and assistance of its allied groups, which mainly consist of foreign citizens and members of radical Islamic groups, just as the Afghan Taliban owes the cooperation of regional and international terrorist groups such as TTP, al-Qaeda, Ansarullah, Jaish al-Adl, Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and … etc…

Considering the dependency and need of the HTS for the support of these groups to achieve victory, this group needs these groups for its survival and will not be able to exclude them from its side.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is well aware of the ability and cruelty of the hearts of each member of these groups and understands that surrendering to any kind of democratic value that is considered blasphemous by Islamists will lose its basic foundations and must then face the allies.

On the other hand, this group knows very well that the establishment of a Taliban-Afghanistan regime in Syria is not acceptable not only for the citizens of this country who have lived in the shadow of freedom with the taste of dictatorship for years, but also its neighboring countries such as Jordan, Lebanon and Israel cannot have such a regime alongside itself.

The HTS’s leader Al-Jolani, like all radical jihadist leaders, is now at an important crossroads, and choosing any of these paths will create new supporters and opponents for him.

On the other hand, Al-Jolani knows very well that his foreign allies have no foothold in their countries except Afghanistan. Citizens of Central Asian countries, who played an important role in his victory, are not even able to enter their country. The citizens of Afghanistan and Pakistan will be the only ones who, if they receive a rejection, can go back home or unite with ISIS and al-Qaeda in the Middle East, depending on the atmosphere in their country.

On the other side of the story, there are Iranian proxy groups that are approaching their expiration date with the fall of the Assad government. These groups were attracted under the pretext of defending the shrine, but now the shrine is not under their control.

On the other hand, the lack of proper access to disabled people and their families inside Iran (although they have been given some privileges in the media), the possibility of moving them inside Iran and keeping them as a reserve force is very low, because the Iranian government’s treatment of these forces inside without using them is like a worker who must be engaged in hard work.

The breaking of the “Shiite Crescent” in Syria with Tahrir al-Sham gaining power as one of the serious opponents of the presence of Iranian forces in the region and an opponent of the Shia has destroyed the ground for the ground transfer of these forces to Lebanon, unless Iran has transferred these forces to Lebanon by air. And to fill the void in the ranks of Hezbollah with the explosion of Israeli pagers and airstrikes and keep them as a threat to Israel.

The second possibility is to send these forces to Yemen to strengthen the Houthis and use them in the next equations in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab. But this option has little probability, because Iran’s interests are secured more in Lebanon than in Yemen and the maritime region, considering the combat capabilities of these people.

Conclusion

The presence of radical jihadist individuals and groups in Syria, either in opposition or in support of Tahrir al-Sham, can be considered a real and continuous threat to the security of Syria and the Middle East as a whole. It seems that the victory of these groups tomorrow will not taste so sweet for the people of Syria and neighboring countries.

As a whole, the continuous presence of groups supporting Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Syria can be considered a serious problem for the security of the region and an opportunity for Hamas.

Asia

South Korea plans $120B spend on eight US nuclear power plants

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South Korea will spend $120 billion to construct eight nuclear power plants in the US under an agreement that provides for $350 billion in investments in exchange for lower tariffs.

The South Korean government also announced that Seoul and Washington will begin examining a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Alaska comprising a large-scale pipeline to transport natural gas from the north of the state to the south, alongside the construction of an LNG terminal for exports overseas.

Seoul stated that a decision regarding the LNG project will be made following a commercial feasibility study. However, US President Donald Trump said that South Korea would invest $54 billion in the project, pointing to an apparent lack of full coordination between the two sides on the matter.

Trade and Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan said in a statement: “This announcement opens a new horizon of cooperation where the two countries join forces to develop joint commercial ventures in strategic areas directly linked to economic security and future sectors such as artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and LNG.”

“We will adhere to the principle of prioritising national interests and investing solely in commercially viable projects,” Kim said.

Speaking at the White House, Trump characterised South Korea’s plans as “one of the largest energy infrastructure investments in American history”.

The announcement followed a meeting between Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung roughly one year ago at the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting held in South Korea, where they agreed on the creation of a $350 billion investment fund.

Under that agreement, $150 billion was allocated to the shipbuilding sector and $200 billion to other sectors. In return, the US announced it would reduce tariffs imposed on goods imported from South Korea from 25% to 15%.

Under the nuclear power project, South Korea’s state-controlled utility will build two plants in the US, while Pennsylvania-based Westinghouse Electric will construct six plants.

According to the South Korean government, this will mark the first instance in which a foreign country builds its own nuclear power plants in the US.

South Korean firms are also evaluating the possibility of acquiring a stake in Westinghouse as part of negotiations over sharing profits generated by the project.

South Korea additionally announced that it will build a $22.3 billion natural gas-fired power plant in Texas with a capacity of 6,472 megawatts.

The facility will be designed to supply electricity directly to nearby data centres. The project’s first phase is targeted to begin commercial operations in 2029, with full-capacity operations slated for 2032.

Seoul also disclosed that it had agreed to allow the US to receive 50% of the profits generated by the projects until South Korea recoups all of its investments.

After South Korea fully recovers its total investment amount, 90% of the profits will go to the US.

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DeepSeek engineer warns AI will lead to communism or Cyberpunk

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Shengyu Liu, a low-level hardware architecture and processor kernel optimisation specialist at China-based artificial intelligence organisation DeepSeek, has published an assessment addressing the existential crisis facing software developers and humanity amid the pace of AI advancement.

A senior engineer who personally coded the core attention mechanism kernels for the DeepSeek v4.1 model, Liu stated that the technology he developed with his own hands will very soon render his professional expertise redundant and has initiated the phasing out of human labour.

Arguing that AI will steer future societies either towards a communism in which productive forces are entirely emancipated or towards a dark Cyberpunk dystopia where resources are concentrated within mega tech monopolies, Liu highlighted the vital importance of the open-source software struggle for humanity.

Noting that the DeepSeek v4.1 model released a few days ago raised the capability ceiling for small-scale systems, Liu stressed that transformation across the sector is advancing at an inconceivable pace.

Recalling that the transition from initial chatbots with context lengths of only a few thousand semantic tokens to reasoning-capable contemporary models took just two years, the senior engineer observed that the emergence of autonomous agents executing complex instructions within test and execution environments spanned a period of merely one and a half years.

Stating that AI will attain the capacity for self-improvement and full integration into physically embodied systems within the next few years, Liu described the transformation this development has generated in his own field:

“AI is taking incredible strides in processor kernel design and authoring, the field for which I am responsible. Within the span of merely a year, it transformed from a modest assistant that merely scanned technical documentation, read code, and identified bugs into a master that independently reads GPU machine-language instructions and hardware-level instruction sequences directly. Using professional profiling tools, it inspects instruction latency stalls and optimises processor kernels autonomously. In the not-so-distant future, it will also acquire the ability to independently design instruction scheduling, weigh the performance of different plans, implement them, and bring them to perfection.”

Expressing pride in the success achieved by the DeepSeek v4.1 model as a concrete fruit of his own labour, Liu noted that he personally coded the system’s most critical attention mechanism components, stating that the model’s success serves as an endorsement of his craft, yet the superhuman nature of technological progress remains unstoppable.

“I want to lead my own revolution”

Liu considers it a certainty that within six months to a year, AI will generate processor kernels far superior to his own.

Pointing to the rapidly widening chasm between the human mind and machine capacity, the senior engineer said: “AI can think at 300 semantic tokens per second, write a line of code in half a second, and complete an entire block of code in 20 seconds. I cannot do this. AI can continually increase model depth, thinking intensity, external tool invocation frequency, and processing parallelism; I cannot achieve this.”

Emphasising that software engineers have been drawn into a race knowingly preparing their own demise, Liu explained why he works day and night on optimisation efforts that accelerate his own obsolescence:

“Throughout history, humanity has never hesitated when it comes to self-destruction. Knowing that the more flawless the kernels I write, the faster our new model’s training and inference speeds will be, the more its capabilities will multiply, and the earlier I will be sidelined, why do I continue to optimise with all my strength? On one level, this work is like a game to me; it brings me indescribable pleasure. When I discover a new method or see the performance curve of my code rise, the thrill I feel is no different from that of a record-breaking speed enthusiast. Moreover, I feel immense pride when I outperform the official code of hardware vendors.”

Pointing to the ruthless competition on the other side of the coin, Liu stated: “Yet the primary reason is this: even if I quit today or deliberately slowed the progress of our models, other companies would continue their work and eventually eliminate me anyway. Naturally, no one wishes to see their own profession overturned; however, if this revolution is inevitable, I want the force that unseats me to originate from my own hands. In a landscape where everyone is so focused on self-destruction, I, too, am forced to join this relentless arms race.”

“The din of machines crushes the joy of craft”

Preparing for the day when AI surpasses his level of expertise, Liu noted that he will not face unemployment, but will be forced to switch domains.

Stating that his judgement, cognitive capacity, and initiative will allow him to remain at the core table of the industry, the specialist engineer observed that this adaptation entails a heavy emotional toll.

Explaining that shifting fields means abandoning an area to which he is deeply devoted, Liu described his sense of dislocation:

“Switching domains means leaving behind the hardware kernel design, coding, and optimisation work to which I have dedicated years and an ardent passion, only to become a machine operator of AI agents. In the past, my personal curiosity, my area of expertise, and industry demand were in complete harmony. Now, AI has become far more adept than I am in the exact domain of my expertise. Industry demand has shifted away from the human writing high-performance kernel code toward an operator prompting AI to produce such code more rapidly. To bow to this industry demand, I must abandon the field I love and steer toward an unknown path.”

Illustrating the transformation through the metaphor of a traditional craft, Liu continued:

“Consider, for instance, being a master sweater knitter who achieves exquisite patterns and colour harmonies. The quality of the fabric you weave is so superior that wealthy patrons from surrounding villages seek you out, earning you a good living. What is more, sitting by the window sipping tea while looking out at mountains, streams, and animals brings you deep peace as you knit in silence. Then one day, a machine is invented; you feed it only wool and a pattern template, and it knits the sweater identically to your manual craft, only far faster. Realising your competitors will easily overtake you with this tool, you begin using it yourself. Thanks to your 20 years of accumulated experience, you remain faster than your competitors even while operating the machine. Yet the elegance of those hours spent listening to the rain and working stitch by stitch is crushed and extinguished under the mechanical din of the machine. That quiet by the window will be experienced for the final time this summer. I must leave my talent behind in yesterday and become an armoured-machine driver; my hands hold more gears now, but my heart has lost its rhythm.”

“AI in the hands of the unskilled spells disaster”

Looking beyond personal sorrow to societal and pedagogical risks, Liu focused on signs of decay within the education system.

Noting that the new generation of students tends to delegate coursework assignments to AI, the veteran engineer remarked that a student who spends a few cents to have AI produce top-grade code within minutes, rather than sweating for eight hours to obtain an imperfect result, will be stripped of foundational skills.

Emphasising that this shortcut will erode vital engineering abilities such as systems building, code architecture design, abstraction, and anticipating future requirements during development, Liu expressed deep concern:

“Will this foundational engineering mindset fade into history like the skill of writing machine language in past eras, or will it retain permanent value like the capacity to grasp entire computer architectures from software down to hardware? If this comprehension continues to hold value, the situation is dire indeed. Because when an individual with weak engineering fundamentals is equipped with AI, they will produce mountains of garbage code far faster than before. This will plant countless ticking time bombs deep within software systems, driving the world toward a far more precarious, ramshackle structure liable to collapse at any moment.”

Pointing out that raw authority and power will become decisive in the future world rather than technical expertise and intellect, the senior engineer stated that only time can answer these fundamental questions.

“A binary future: Communism or a dark corporate dystopia”

Observing that humanity has arrived at a crossroads with the advancement of AI, Shengyu Liu emphasised that future society will evolve toward one of two radical poles, which he termed communism and Cyberpunk:

“With the momentum of AI, future society will probably be cast toward one of two extremes: communism or Cyberpunk 2077. In the first option, productive forces are completely unshackled, domination over the means of production is broken, and human living standards make an unprecedented leap forward. In the second option, a small tech oligopoly consolidates all resources. While a privileged elite gains access to the most advanced AI and cutting-edge technologies, ascending almost to a state of mechanical divinity, the overwhelming majority of society is left with extremely weak and constrained AIs. Upward social mobility becomes impossible; to reach a higher class, one must possess the most powerful AI, yet access to that AI requires already having been born into that class. An unbreakable cycle of exploitation is thus established.”

Openly criticising the monopolistic and closed models adopted by Western tech companies, Liu posed a pointed question:

“In a scenario where the world’s most advanced AI remains permanently monopolised by a company like Anthropic, do you believe the future will evolve toward communism or a dark Cyberpunk dystopia? Go ahead and guess.”

Stating his conviction that top-tier AI must be delivered openly, transparently, and free of charge to all humanity, the DeepSeek engineer expressed a lack of trust that actors such as Anthropic or OpenAI would uphold this mission.

Likening the possibility of Anthropic alone controlling artificial general intelligence to the catastrophe of nuclear technology falling into the hands of fascist regimes during World War II, Liu concluded with his rationale for remaining at DeepSeek:

“That is precisely why I chose to remain at DeepSeek and why I am holding the line here. We build powerful, lightning-fast AIs offered for the common good of all humanity, and we release them as open source. This is the path to pulling the world back from the brink of that dark corporate dystopia and liberating productive forces for the benefit of the people.”

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Analysts warn new surge in Chinese exports threatens global markets

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Financial Times writer Ryan Avent has written that a fresh, rapid surge in China’s trade surplus could signal a new wave of the “China shock”.

Economists define the “China shock” as a spike in Chinese exports to global markets that intensifies competition for manufacturers in advanced economies and curtails employment in certain sectors.

The term gained widespread currency after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, accelerating the inflow of inexpensive Chinese goods into the US and other nations.

The US was the country hit hardest by the initial shockwave. Between 1999 and 2011, more than 2 million jobs were lost because domestic producers were unable to withstand the competition.

Avent argued that the effects of the initial wave are still felt across the American economy because China failed to carry out the rebalancing that the world expected.

The share of net exports in China’s gross domestic product contracted during the 2007-2019 period, allowing Western nations to focus on national security and other matters.

Avent reported that the trade surplus is now escalating rapidly once again, posing a threat to the economies of wealthy nations.

The writer pointed to the stagnation of domestic demand following the collapse of the real estate market six years ago as one cause of this surplus. Another prominent factor is the Beijing government’s channelling of massive resources into manufacturing in pursuit of self-sufficiency.

Attention was also drawn to the role of the depreciating yuan. An appreciation of the currency could require China to alter its foreign exchange interventions, reduce purchases of foreign currency and assets, and sell those assets off. That scenario could trigger currency depreciation and rising interest rates in other countries.

The Wall Street Journal also reported in the spring of 2024 on economists’ concerns regarding a potential second wave.

Experts predicted that global markets would once again be flooded with inexpensive goods, stating that China was manufacturing far beyond domestic demand to overcome its economic troubles.

Moreover, it was stressed that China is now competing in high-technology fields such as automobiles, computer chips, and complex machinery manufacturing.

Meanwhile, Vasiliy Kashin, Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) University in Moscow, told the Russian media outlet RBC that the US has imposed sanctions on the Chinese economy since the first shock period, adding that these measures would very likely tighten in the event of a fresh export wave.

According to assessments reported by the Financial Times, this new process could also shake China’s own economy. Alongside rising output, entry-level manufacturing plants across the country are turning toward automation and reducing personnel.

This trend could trigger a painful departure from labour-intensive production, leaving millions unemployed. Manufacturing activities in China that previously capitalised on cheap labour are shifting to other Southeast Asian countries.

The Beijing administration rejected allegations that its industrialisation steps pose risks to other countries. As reported by the Xinhua news agency, China’s Ministry of Commerce stressed that claims of a “China shock 2.0” are groundless. The ministry stated:

“The US and other Western countries have circulated the so-called ‘China shock 2.0’ narrative, asserting that China’s industrial development has shaken Western monopolies and narrowed growth space for Global South countries. This claim is unsupported by concrete data and is entirely unfounded.”

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