Connect with us

Asia

Syrian government collapse – future of foreign jihadists against and in favor of Assad

Published

on

Syria is one of the centers of gathering of people and extremist Islamic jihadist groups that have been fighting against each other for at least a decade with the support or opposition of the government under the leadership of Bashar Assad. These groups played a significant role in the emergence and suppression of ISIS and also in the Syrian civil wars and all its consequences.

The fall of the government of the Assad family, which had become a full-fledged dictator, and his treatment of some of his opponents was extremely disappointing and far from human values, has so far brought a smile to the faces of a large number of Syrian citizens and hope for change among some political circles. But can the opposition of Assad, led by the Syrian Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), bring the broken ship of this country to a safe shore where there is peace in the shadow of democratic values? This is a question that time will answer.

According to independent evaluations and the opinion of some security experts, proxy groups and foreign mercenaries played the same role as the army and internal opposition forces in supporting and opposing the Assad government. In this article we attempt to make briefly investigate the future of proxy and mercenary jihadist groups on both sides of the front and what role these groups will play in the future of Syria and to what extent they will affect the security of the Middle East and the international region.

Who are the foreign jihadist forces?

At outset, Assad’s supporters:

The government led by Bashar Assad, which was effectively overthrown on December 8, 2024, had various supporters, including governments (Russia and the Islamic Republic of Iran) and proxy mercenary groups. In this article, how governments support official channels will not be discussed, but proxy groups will be emphasized.

Militant groups composed of foreign citizens were mainly created, equipped and supported under the leadership of the Quds branch of the Revolutionary Guards of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The four important groups that seriously supported the Assad government in the civil war and the fight against ISIS include the Fatemiyoun Army, the Zainabiyoun Army, the Hosseinyoun Army, and Hezbollah.

Fatemiyoun army

“Lashkar Fatemiyoun”, based on the information published by the commanders and the group itself, consisted of Afghan immigrant citizens who were looking for jobs in different sectors such as construction, stone cutting, etc. before joining this group in Iran. The living conditions for Afghan immigrants in Iran were getting worse day by day due to various reasons, including economic pressures on the Iranian government and society and the unofficial anti-immigrant policy of the Iranian government and citizens.

Although some of the Iranian media close to the Iranian government stated that the presence of these people was spontaneous among the members of the Mohammad Corps (which was created to fight the Soviet Union forces in Afghanistan) and claimed that this group was formed to defend the shrine of Hazrat Zainab. There are reports that show that with the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East, especially the emergence of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, Iran, using economic compulsions and occasionally using religious motives, tried to recruit people from among the Afghan immigrants and formed the Fatemiyoun Army to fight.

Fatemiyoun, whose number is not precisely known, is still present in the Middle East and is known as an important proxy military capacity of Iran. However, as seen in the recent clashes and the attack by the HTS, no fronts have been reported from this group. Some videos of the presence of members of this group in Syria were published on social networks, but Fatemiyoun has not reported any kind of resistance or support to the Assad government. Reports indicate that Iran has transferred all members of this group to Iraq.

It is noteworthy that during the entire period of activity of this group, there was no official and confirmed report of their presence in Afghanistan, and the security forces of the previous government of Afghanistan did not record any anti-government and security activities by the members of this group inside Afghanistan.

Zainebiyoun Brigade or Zainbyoun’s army

Lashkar Zainbyoun is composed of Pakistani citizens, which was formed under the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to fight against ISIS and support the Assad government. The recruitment of the members of this group was different from the members of Fatemiyoun. Unlike Fatemiyoun, whose members were recruited from among Afghan immigrants living in Iran, members of Lashkar Zainbyoun were mainly recruited from Pakistani citizens, especially from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Karachi and Lahore regions.

The government of Pakistan declared this group as a banned terrorist group and arrested several of its important members in the last two years. The information published on social networks shows that the people applying for membership in Lashkar Zainbion should be between 15 and 35 years old and they are supposed to be paid 120,000 Pakistani rupees per month, which was equivalent to 1,200 US dollars in 2015.

This group also played a prominent role in the war against Daesh in Syria and Iraq alongside the government and proxy forces, but like Fatemiyoun, no resistance or support to the Assad government was reported in the recent conflicts in Syria. Due to the fact that the members of this group are known as a terrorist group, they will no longer be able to return to their country.

Hosseiniun army, Azerbaijani Armed Forces

Hosseiniyon group, consisting of citizens of the Republic of Azerbaijan, under the leadership of Tawheed Ebrahimi (Ibrahim Bailey), a Shia cleric trained in Mashhad seminary, was active in Syria along with other proxy groups of Iran.

This group also played a serious role in the war against ISIS along with other government and proxy forces in Syria and Iraq. Similar to other groups, it has always been used to secure the interests of  Iran and the Syrian government.

Due to its relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran, the government of the Republic of Azerbaijan has monitored the activities of this group inside its country as an illegal armed group and has arrested a number of its members.

There are reports that show that no reaction or resistance was observed from this group in the recent conflicts in Syria, and the leader of this group is currently inside Iran, according to Iranian media reports.

Syrian Hezbollah

Although some analysts claim that the members of this group are Syrian citizens, the available information shows that a large part of the members of this group were Lebanese citizens. This group, like other proxy groups, played an important role in defending the Assad government during the civil war and the war with ISIS, but no reaction has been reported from it in the recent conflicts that led to the fall of the Assad government.

Now, the opponents of Assad’s regime

The opposition front of Assad is also made up of a large gathering of Sunni extremist Islamists. Along with groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the current ruler of Syria, Jaysh al-Watani and others, a significant number of citizens of Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uighurs from China and Pakistan are actively present.

Although these groups did not independently have separate organizations and fronts from HTS, like Assad’s supporters and proxy groups of Iran, extensive information in the mass media shows that foreign citizens played a significant role in Tahrir al-Sham’s rise to power and the fall of the Assad government.

These groups mainly include the following outfits.

Citizens of Afghanistan

Simultaneously with the advance of the Tahrir al-Sham group in Syria, many videos and visual and textual information about the presence of Afghan citizens with the members of Tahrir al-Sham were published. These citizens, who mainly spoke Pashto, published messages of congratulations and happiness in front of their compatriots in front of the Assad government, which in many cases referred to that government as “apostate”. These videos and images were widely reproduced by Taliban members and supporters on social networks.

Citizens of Pakistan

Pakistani citizens, especially residents of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, were also widely present in support of Assad’s opponents. Many videos and pictures of the presence of these people were published on social networks.

In the Pashto language, they called the successive victories of their train mates “Jihad against the “apostate” and even said in a strong tone in one of the videos: “I will kill every Shiite I catch.” There is no exact information on the exact number of Pakistani citizens who were present with the HTS group, but the activity and moment-to-moment dissemination on social networks shows that the presence of these people was significant.

Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad

This group is made up of citizens of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, who have been in northern Syria for a few years alongside Jabhat al-Nusra and Tahrir al-Sham, and even some of its members have been with ISIS. The members of this group, to show their presence and power, informed their progress moment by moment while wearing regular military uniforms.

This group was included in the list of terrorist organizations by the United Nations Security Council and the United States Department of State two years ago due to its subversive activities and connection with terrorist organizations such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

Imam Bukhari Jammat

Although most of the activities of members of Imam Bukhari’s Jammat have been reported in Afghanistan and this group is considered one of the allies of the Taliban, some reports have reported the presence of members of this group, who are mainly citizens of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia, alongside Tahrir al-Sham.

The United States Department of State, in the explanation it published about this group, introduced it as one of the large groups of Uzbek citizens in Syria that work in close cooperation with Jabhat al-Nusra and al-Qaeda. This group has also been recognized as a terrorist organization by the United Nations Security Council and the United States Department of State.

East Turkestan Islamic Movement

According to reliable reports, including the report of the United Nations Security Council, the leadership base of this group is in Afghanistan, but some analysts also confirm the large presence of this group in Syria.

This group consists of Uyghurs who believe that they are fighting for the independence of China’s Xinjiang, which is also referred to as Eastern Turkestan. But the activities of this group show that this issue is just a slogan and in fact it has done the least activity inside or against the interests of China and the majority of its activities are in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Syria in association with other terrorist groups such as the Taliban, al-Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra and It has recently been reported alongside Tahrir al-Sham.

The members of this group were widely active alongside the Tahrir al-Sham group to overthrow the Assad government. This group is also on the list of terrorist organizations of the United Nations Security Council and the United States Department of State.

Jaish al-Jihad of Imam Abu Hanifah

This group is composed of citizens of Tajikistan, which works alongside extremist Islamist groups such as Tahrir al-Sham in Syria. Some analysts who have followed the activities of this group say that the members of this group advertise more on social networks to attract and attract people from among the citizens of Tajikistan, and they have become more active in the recent war between Tahrir al-Sham and the government of Bashar Assad.

There is not much information about the activities of this group in Afghanistan or Tajikistan, but so far the most famous jihadist group among the citizens of Tajikistan is the Ansarullah Movement, which operates as one of the supporters of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

What will be the fate of foreign jihadist groups?

With the fall of the Assad government and the presence of extremist Islamist groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the region and the world expect the new Syrian government to form a government based on the people’s vote and remove any threat against the region and the world.

However, a review of the activity records of groups aligned with Tahrir al-Sham and this group itself shows that democratic principles and government formation based on people’s votes are alien to the views of these groups.

Currently, power is in the hands of a coalition of extremist Islamist groups that are listed as terrorist organizations by the United Nations and many countries around the world, mainly because of their subversive activities.

It is clear that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, contrary to its claim, alone and relying only on its human and financial resources was not able to achieve this amazing success and is not able to maintain it even now.

This group owes the cooperation and assistance of its allied groups, which mainly consist of foreign citizens and members of radical Islamic groups, just as the Afghan Taliban owes the cooperation of regional and international terrorist groups such as TTP, al-Qaeda, Ansarullah, Jaish al-Adl, Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and … etc…

Considering the dependency and need of the HTS for the support of these groups to achieve victory, this group needs these groups for its survival and will not be able to exclude them from its side.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is well aware of the ability and cruelty of the hearts of each member of these groups and understands that surrendering to any kind of democratic value that is considered blasphemous by Islamists will lose its basic foundations and must then face the allies.

On the other hand, this group knows very well that the establishment of a Taliban-Afghanistan regime in Syria is not acceptable not only for the citizens of this country who have lived in the shadow of freedom with the taste of dictatorship for years, but also its neighboring countries such as Jordan, Lebanon and Israel cannot have such a regime alongside itself.

The HTS’s leader Al-Jolani, like all radical jihadist leaders, is now at an important crossroads, and choosing any of these paths will create new supporters and opponents for him.

On the other hand, Al-Jolani knows very well that his foreign allies have no foothold in their countries except Afghanistan. Citizens of Central Asian countries, who played an important role in his victory, are not even able to enter their country. The citizens of Afghanistan and Pakistan will be the only ones who, if they receive a rejection, can go back home or unite with ISIS and al-Qaeda in the Middle East, depending on the atmosphere in their country.

On the other side of the story, there are Iranian proxy groups that are approaching their expiration date with the fall of the Assad government. These groups were attracted under the pretext of defending the shrine, but now the shrine is not under their control.

On the other hand, the lack of proper access to disabled people and their families inside Iran (although they have been given some privileges in the media), the possibility of moving them inside Iran and keeping them as a reserve force is very low, because the Iranian government’s treatment of these forces inside without using them is like a worker who must be engaged in hard work.

The breaking of the “Shiite Crescent” in Syria with Tahrir al-Sham gaining power as one of the serious opponents of the presence of Iranian forces in the region and an opponent of the Shia has destroyed the ground for the ground transfer of these forces to Lebanon, unless Iran has transferred these forces to Lebanon by air. And to fill the void in the ranks of Hezbollah with the explosion of Israeli pagers and airstrikes and keep them as a threat to Israel.

The second possibility is to send these forces to Yemen to strengthen the Houthis and use them in the next equations in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab. But this option has little probability, because Iran’s interests are secured more in Lebanon than in Yemen and the maritime region, considering the combat capabilities of these people.

Conclusion

The presence of radical jihadist individuals and groups in Syria, either in opposition or in support of Tahrir al-Sham, can be considered a real and continuous threat to the security of Syria and the Middle East as a whole. It seems that the victory of these groups tomorrow will not taste so sweet for the people of Syria and neighboring countries.

As a whole, the continuous presence of groups supporting Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Syria can be considered a serious problem for the security of the region and an opportunity for Hamas.

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

Asia

Ending Western reliance on China requires $23.6 trillion in investment by 2050, study shows

Published

20 hours ago

on

13/07/2026

By

Western efforts to reduce reliance on China across strategic supply chains could cost the US, the eurozone, and the UK more than $23 trillion over the next quarter-century, according to a study highlighting the immense economic challenge confronting Western policymakers.

Economic analysis indicates that European and US authorities and corporations will need to invest an additional $23.6 trillion over the next 25 years to successfully end their dependence on China in critical sectors such as manufacturing and technology.

The consultancy EY-Parthenon calculated that rebuilding infrastructure, research, software, manufacturing, and supply chains currently reliant on China will cost the US $13.7 trillion, the eurozone $9.1 trillion, and the UK $800 billion by 2050.

For the US, the required annual capital expenditure from the government and private sector to decouple from China is estimated at $550 billion. This sum is roughly equivalent to the $600 billion major US technology companies are projected to invest in data centers in 2025. For the EU, EY-Parthenon estimated that the necessary spending would require nearly doubling the bloc’s annual budget.

The scale of investment required to substitute Chinese resources and materials, on which advanced economies are currently dependent, underscores the formidable challenge Western governments face as they attempt to curb Beijing’s dominance in strategic supply chains.

“Localizing supply chains without creating unbearable costs for taxpayers and consumers will be one of the most difficult challenges confronting both companies and governments in the coming years,” said Mats Persson, a former UK Prime Minister’s adviser who is now a partner at EY-Parthenon.

EY-Parthenon analysts wrote that an average collective additional investment of $940 billion annually over 25 years was, in theory, “not insurmountable.” However, this expenditure would need to be made on top of existing investments in energy, technology, defense, and infrastructure. Persson noted that initial annual outlays would start lower but would escalate as the transition expanded.

The vulnerability of European and US economies to Chinese leverage was exposed last year when Beijing introduced export controls on critical rare earth metals in response to US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 145% tariff on Chinese imports.

Automotive production lines in both economies ground to a near-standstill before a truce was reached between Beijing and Washington. The disruption accelerated efforts by the US and Europe to de-risk their relations with China, which included an EU plan to stockpile rare earth elements.

According to assessments by the International Energy Agency, China is projected to supply more than 60% of the world’s refined lithium and cobalt—materials vital to the transition to cleaner energy sources—and approximately 80% of battery-grade graphite and rare earth elements until 2035.

Alicia García-Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at the investment bank Natixis, said that Beijing’s tight grip on many critical industrial materials meant the West could not decouple from China in the short term, even with massive investment.

“It is not just a question of how much it will cost,” García-Herrero said. “It is also China’s capacity to intervene to block such decoupling, given its current control over supply in everything from rare earth processing to active pharmaceutical ingredients.”

According to the EY-Parthenon analysis, Chinese-made goods generally benefit from a factory-gate price advantage of between 20% and 100% compared to Western competitors. Consequently, reducing dependence on Chinese manufacturing is expected to drive up prices and increase inflation.

The EY-Parthenon report noted that Europe cutting its reliance on China could raise prices in critical sectors by 1% to 2.5%. Citing an analysis by the European Central Bank, the report warned this could cause inflation rates to remain permanently above the 2% targets set by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

According to the report, Western economies seeking a meaningful reduction in China dependence will need to invest heavily in factory and physical infrastructure, as well as workforce training and the automation of production processes.

Given the scale of the challenges, Persson said that “partial decoupling” was a more probable outcome. Under this scenario, companies would need to be selective about where they allocate resources to build resilience against potential bottlenecks controlled by China.

Continue Reading

Asia

China and Russia deploy submarines together in “Joint Sea-2026” drills

Published

20 hours ago

on

13/07/2026

By

The joint deployment and first-ever combined visual capturing of Chinese and Russian submarines during a bilateral military exercise marks a major breakthrough in underwater coordination and signals an unprecedented level of mutual strategic trust between the two powers, according to military analysts.

The maritime phase of the joint naval exercise “Joint Sea-2026,” conducted by China and Russia, concluded on Saturday. According to China Bugle, the official media organ of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) News and Media Center, submarines from both the Chinese and Russian navies were photographed together in the same frame for the first time during the drills.

Speaking to the Global Times, a military affairs expert said the development demonstrates a high level of mutual trust that goes far beyond ordinary bilateral relations.

During the exercises, Chinese and Russian naval units conducted drills covering submarine rescue, strikes on surface targets, air defense, and anti-missile operations. China Bugle reported that both sides deepened mutual trust and further enhanced their joint operational capabilities through highly effective coordination.

The drills employed a flexible planning approach and applied rigorous standards to operational coordination. The joint maneuvers were conducted without predetermined, fixed scenarios; instead, operations were dynamically adapted to real-time battlefield conditions, hydrometeorological factors, and other variable elements.

Participating forces were organized into mixed formations. By utilizing sea, air, and submarine platforms, the two militaries established a multi-domain, integrated combat system.

According to China Bugle, this integrated structure effectively tested both sides’ capabilities in joint reconnaissance and early warning, command coordination, and firepower strikes within complex electromagnetic environments.

During the air defense and anti-missile drills, Chinese and Russian vessels operated in close coordination with a clear division of tasks. Leveraging the distinct strengths of their respective weapon platforms, the forces successfully intercepted incoming targets in the shortest possible time, demonstrating the combined combat capability of the joint Chinese-Russian naval force.

Held regularly since 2012, the “Joint Sea” exercises have become a cornerstone platform for naval cooperation between China and Russia.

According to official statements, both sides deployed elite forces for this iteration of the drills, encompassing surface, underwater, aerial, and support assets. In particular, the participation of submarines and submarine rescue vessels indicates that bilateral naval cooperation continues to expand from surface operations to integrated surface and underwater combat.

Following reports that Chinese and Russian submarines had been captured in the same frame for the first time, Chinese military expert Wang Yunfei told the Global Times on Sunday that the event represents an extraordinary level of mutual trust.

Wang noted that joint submarine operations are exceptionally rare worldwide. By their very nature, submarines operate on the principle of stealth, and their acoustic signatures are guarded by every country as highly classified intelligence.

Pointing out that such vessels are rarely shown in close proximity to one another, Wang said the joint sighting of the two submarines indicates they were operating in close quarters.

Under these conditions, the expert noted, the acoustic signatures of the submarines—including not only their noise levels but also their frequency characteristics—could mutually expose secrets to one another.

Official footage of the exercise revealed that Russia’s improved Kilo-class conventional submarine, the Ufa, participated in the drills, while the Chinese side deployed an improved Type 039B conventional submarine.

According to Wang, when China previously operated Russian-built Kilo-class submarines alongside identical Russian vessels, the implications were different because the acoustic signatures of those platforms were already known to both parties.

However, Wang emphasized that on this occasion, China showcased its domestically developed Type 039B submarine—widely considered state-of-the-art globally—to Russia, reflecting a level of mutual trust that goes beyond standard military exchanges.

Wang also pointed out that the participation of submarines in joint exercises involves communication and data exchange, which serves as another key indicator of high-level mutual trust.

Communication between submarines is highly complex, Wang said, explaining that one method involves raising an antenna above the water’s surface at communication depth. The other method is underwater acoustic communication, where a connection is maintained using specialized equipment—a method that is technically far more challenging.

Regardless of the method used, Wang noted that both sides must share their technical communication characteristics, methods, and tactics with one another.

This level of sharing enables the parties to achieve a high degree of tactical coordination when facing common adversaries, the expert said.

It remains extremely rare for two submarines to participate in joint exercises, share communication data, and coordinate strikes against targets.

Wang said that the ability of China and Russia to achieve this reflects not only the high level of mutual trust between the two sides but also the strong self-confidence of the Chinese military in its own capabilities.

The expert added that this milestone serves as a positive starting point for increasing the depth and intensity of future joint maneuvers.

Following the conclusion of the drills, China Bugle reported that some of the participating forces will conduct joint naval patrols in relevant areas of the Pacific Ocean to continue contributing to regional and international peace and stability.

According to China’s official state news agency, Xinhua, China and Russia launched the “Joint Sea-2026” exercise on July 6 at a military port in Qingdao, located in eastern China’s Shandong province.

A joint command consisting of task forces from both countries’ navies was established to oversee the drills.

Xinhua reported that the exercise would be carried out in three distinct phases: the assembly of forces, port-based planning, and maritime operations.

With the maritime operations phase of the China-Russia “Joint Sea-2026” exercise now concluded, the Chinese Ministry of Defense issued a statement on Sunday.

The ministry stated that both parties will continue to adhere to the principles of openness, transparency, and mutual trust, while further expanding the scope and depth of their joint training.

The ministry added that both nations will make greater contributions to building a maritime community with a shared future and safeguarding global peace and stability.

Continue Reading

Asia

China weighs restricting foreign access to advanced AI models and tightening technology controls

Published

6 days ago

on

08/07/2026

By

China is considering restricting overseas access to its most advanced artificial intelligence models, including designs that have not yet been publicly released.

According to a Reuters report citing three sources familiar with the matter, the government in Beijing is increasing its control mechanisms to protect the domestic AI sector and its proprietary technologies.

Officials from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce have held a series of meetings over the past month with the country’s leading AI developers and technology giants. Represented at these discussions were major corporations including e-commerce platform Alibaba, TikTok owner ByteDance, and information technology firm Z.ai.

The meetings focused on potential restrictions that could be imposed on the distribution of China’s most modern AI models.

Sources said that Beijing plans to increase criminal liabilities for the leak or theft of AI technologies, treating such actions as equivalent to violations of national security law.

Other topics discussed during the meetings included the introduction of additional limitations on the funding of China-based AI startups.

The final framework of the new measures has not yet been established. Sources indicated that the potential restrictions might only affect models developed in the future. The date on which these regulations would take effect remains unknown.

Following the launch of the Chinese-developed DeepSeek R1 model, the country’s AI solutions strengthened their position in the global market by offering low costs and high performance. Industry analysts note that blocking foreign users from accessing these technologies could impact the global AI market and increase costs for companies that rely on Chinese models.

Beijing continues to expand its oversight of the domestic AI industry. According to Reuters, authorities initiated investigations earlier this year into several Chinese AI companies that had relocated their operations abroad. Controls have also been tightened on commercial transactions involving technology, data, and national security.

According to a report by the Financial Times citing internal sources, Beijing is also discussing plans to reduce the number of publications that Chinese scientists submit to foreign academic journals.

The report emphasized that these discussions are driven by growing concerns over technology leaks and a desire to strengthen state control over the dissemination of scientific research results.

In 2024, Chinese academics authored approximately one-third of all publications indexed in the Science Citation Index (SCI) database, which encompasses leading international scientific journals.

Industry experts state that China is transitioning from its previous goal of expanding its international scientific presence to a new phase focused on controlling the usage of technologies developed within its borders. According to these experts, Beijing aims with these moves to both protect its national security and maintain its leverage in the global scientific community.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey