The Japanese press described the meeting between Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Donald Trump in Washington last week as “successful.”
However, observers noted that although tariffs were not mentioned in the joint statement issued after the meeting at the White House, Japan remains concerned about such taxes.
At their first summit on Friday, the leaders reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to Japan’s defense, including “nuclear deterrence against China.” They also discussed multilateral defense cooperation.
Pushing Tokyo to invest in American energy and technology, Trump made it clear that Washington wants to reduce its $68 billion trade deficit with Japan and argued that the problem can be solved without resorting to tariffs.
Prior to the meeting, there were concerns in Japan that Trump might insist on a significant increase in defense spending. However, Trump refrained from making such demands and instead praised Japan’s plan to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP.
Japan has long limited its defense spending to 1% of GDP, but in late 2022 pledged to gradually increase this level to 2% by 2027.
Main agenda: Nippon Steel
Kazuto Suzuki, a professor of international political economy at the University of Tokyo, told the South China Morning Post that Trump seemed to have accepted the goal and “there was less emphasis on China and defense.”
“The main target of this meeting was not only trade and China, but also Nippon Steel,” Suzuki said, adding that the meeting was considered successful given how “normal” it was.
According to Suzuki, there were initially concerns that Trump might deviate from his prepared notes and be “hostile” to Ishiba, a political foe of Japan’s late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
“The main goal was to conduct the meeting as normally as possible,” he added.
During the meeting, Trump announced that Japan’s Nippon Steel had abandoned its attempt to buy Pittsburgh-based US Steel for US$14.1 billion and would instead “invest instead of buy.”
The Japanese firm’s attempt to take over US Steel had previously been blocked by former US President Joe Biden on national security grounds.
According to Japanese media, the issue of Japanese citizens abducted by North Koreans was also raised, and a relative of one of the abductees expressed satisfaction with “winning the support of the United States” and said that the two countries would “join forces against North Korea’s human rights violations.”
Abe is said to have had strong ties with Trump during the Republican’s first term in office and used this advantage to defend Japanese interests on various issues such as North Korea and trade. In December, Trump and his wife Melania hosted a private dinner for Abe’s widow, Akie, at the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.
Defense pledge and support for Taiwan
Yoichiro Sato, a professor of Asia-Pacific studies at Ritsumeikan Asia-Pacific University in Japan, said that a successful outcome for Japan during the meeting was Trump’s assurance that Article 5 of the US-Japan Security Treaty would apply to the disputed Diaoyu Islands, which Japan calls the Senkaku Islands.
This article states that both sides recognize that an armed attack against any party in Japanese-administered territory would pose a threat to peace and security and that they will take collective action to address this common danger.
Sato noted that in their joint statement, the leaders, for the first time, expressed explicit support for Taiwan’s admission to international groups such as the World Health Organization.
Tarriff threat to semiconductors
Although the tariff issue was not mentioned in the joint statement, Sato said Trump mentioned a “global tariff” on semiconductors to be announced around February 18.
“This will undoubtedly affect Japan as well as major East Asian producers such as Taiwan and South Korea,” Sato said.
“It is unclear at the moment whether Japan will be mentioned as well as Canada, Mexico, and China,” Sato said, adding that if the European Union is targeted in Washington’s next round of tariffs, it is possible that Japan will also be mentioned.
In such a case, Japan’s automobile and steel industries would become “extremely fragile,” Sato said, adding that any decision by Washington on tariffs could be linked to Nippon Steel‘s investment in US Steel.
Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at the International Christian University in Tokyo, warned that Washington could make additional demands in the coming months if Tokyo does not take steps to reduce its trade deficit, such as increasing energy imports from the US.
“But at this stage, Tokyo, like all other allies and enemies of the US, is waiting to see what the US demands are, and they are trying to prepare for them as best they can,” Nagy said.
On Sunday, Ishiba identified liquefied natural gas, steel, artificial intelligence, and automobiles as areas where Japanese companies can invest in the United States and pledged to increase such investments to US$1 trillion.
According to the latest data from the US Department of Commerce, Japan was the largest foreign direct investor in the US last year with $783.3 billion, followed by Canada and Germany.