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MIDDLE EAST

The arrest of the soldiers has shaken Israel: Military base and court stormed

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Far-right extremists stormed the Beit Lid military court in Israel, where 9 soldiers are being held on charges of sexually abusing and torturing a Palestinian, and the Sde Teiman military base, where Palestinians detained in Gaza are being held.

A group, including Israeli far-right MKs, broke into the Sde Teiman military base, while another group raided the Beit Lid military court where 9 soldiers were being held. Following the incidents, there were calls for the far right to be removed from the Israeli administration.

In Israel, the news of the arrest of 9 Israeli soldiers accused of torturing and sexually abusing Palestinians in the Sde Teiman prison, where Gaza detainees are held, and what happened afterwards became the political agenda in the country.

After the news of the arrest was reported in the press, a group of dozens of far-right demonstrators, including far-right MKs, forcibly entered the Sde Teiman military base and organised a raid. Pictures in the Israeli press showed the soldiers’ efforts to prevent the far-right MK Zvi Sukkot, who was trying to enter the base, from opening the chained door of the base.

The crowd then forced the soldiers who were trying to hold the iron gate of the military base and entered the base. The moments when the demonstrators rushed into the military base and the soldiers tried to stop some of them, as well as images of the brawl and the chaos, took place on social media.

According to army radio, some armed and uniformed reserve soldiers also arrived in the area to support the protesters.

The crisis that began in Sde Teiman spread to the Beit Lid military base, where the arrested soldiers were taken for interrogation and where the military court is located.

According to reports in the Israeli press, a group of about 100 Israeli right-wing extremists entered the Beit Lid military base. Pictures in the press and on social media showed a scuffle between the demonstrators who broke into the military court and the soldiers who tried to stop them.

Israeli soldiers and police could be seen trying to remove the demonstrators from the military base.

The right-wing extremists who were removed from the Beit Lid military court continued their demonstrations outside the detention centre of the military base. Israeli right-wing extremist groups smashed the iron gate in the section where the military prison is located. Israeli soldiers used water cannons sprayed from the military base to disperse the demonstrators from the area.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu condemned the raid on the base and called for calm.

Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far-right extremist, said he had ordered police to take action against law-breakers.

Israel’s Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi, also reportedly arrived at the military base in the region. Halevi said: “We came to Beit Lid to make sure that nothing more serious will happen. The attempts of the rebels to infiltrate the bases are serious behaviour that violates the law, amounts to anarchy and harms the Israeli forces, the security of the state and the war effort”.

Far-right coalition members under fire

Former Defence Minister Benny Gantz, a member of the Israeli opposition, criticised ‘extremist figures who call for violence’ within the ruling coalition in a post on his social media account, saying that Israel needs a government that makes responsible decisions.

Gantz stated that those who carried out the raid did not represent Israelis as an ‘extremist minority’ and shared the following statements: ‘The absolute majority of Israeli citizens are against violence and chaos’.

Noting that the presence of those who incite this violence within the coalition is a red line, Gantz said: ‘In order to face the difficult conditions, extremists must be isolated from the head of the administration, this government and the prime minister must be replaced. Israel deserves a responsible government that can lead us to victory over our enemies and ensure unity among us,” Gantz concluded.

‘Prevent the disintegration of the state and the army’

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who issued a statement after the raid, called on the government to prevent the disintegration of the state and the army.

Bennett, who was Israel’s prime minister in 2021-2022, said in a written statement published on the X platform: ‘Stop this madness immediately.

Referring to the attack on the town of Majdal Shams in the occupied Golan Heights on 27 July, Bennett said: “Our enemies are attacking us from all sides, and a handful of rebels are storming a military base in order to destroy the Israeli army, the rule of law and our country. They want to dismember the only Jewish state in the world. You will either ignore the chaos or encourage it”.

Bennett claimed that what happened had nothing to do with the Hamas fighters held in the military base, but rather that they were savages who deserved to be subjected to the maximum punishment and hardship that Israeli law allows: “The problem is with us, do we want a state here or militias that act as they please?”

Bennett stressed that the uprisings and riots are the greatest gift to Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, and other enemies of the country, adding that everyone must immediately stop the uprising, leave the military zone and abide by the law.

F”irst of all, I call on the members of the Israeli government to show real leadership,” Bennett said, calling on the Netanyahu government not to allow the rioters, not to pour petrol on the fire and to prevent the disintegration of the State of Israel.

‘Ministers involved in raid should be fired immediately’

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid, also on his X account, commented on the events saying: “We are not on the edge of hell, we are in hell itself”.

Lapid said that all red lines had been crossed today and stressed that the message of the MPs and ministers who took part in the occupation of the military base by the angry militias was that ‘they are tired of democracy and the rule of law’.

“The dangerous fascist group threatens Israel’s existence,” Lapid said of the officials who took part in the raid on the military bases.

Lapid said that the ministers involved in the raid should be fired immediately and stressed that the prime minister should take action, saying: ‘If Netanyahu doesn’t do this, he is not fit to be the head of Israel.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog was also among those to react to the developments.

In a statement posted on his official X account, Herzog said: ‘This is a state of law’ and called on all MPs to calm down immediately.

In his statement, Herzog said: “We are experiencing one of the most difficult and challenging weeks in terms of security, we must no longer burden our soldiers and leaders. Let us support the Israeli army and its leaders, let us defend the army against any calls that would please our enemies”.

MIDDLE EAST

Israel discusses Türkiye’s growing influence in Middle East security meeting

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A ‘security meeting’ was held in Israel concerning Türkiye’s growing influence in the Middle East, following the Nagel report, which recommended preparations for a possible conflict with Türkiye.

According to two Israeli officials who spoke to The Jerusalem Post, the meeting addressed Türkiye’s increasing regional influence and its potential effects on Israel.

The meeting was attended by Israeli Defence Minister Yisrael Katz, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, and several senior officials.

The discussions focused on assessing whether Türkiye’s growing influence represented a change in the level of threat to Israel. An Israeli official revealed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also expected to convene a separate meeting in the coming days to address the same issue.

In its latest report on Israel’s defence budget and security strategy, the Nagel Committee, established under Netanyahu’s instructions, advised that the Tel Aviv administration should prepare for a ‘possible war’ with Türkiye. Presented to Netanyahu, Defence Minister Katz, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, the report claimed Türkiye was pursuing ambitions to regain its Ottoman-era influence. It further suggested this could heighten tensions with Israel and possibly lead to conflict.

The report warned of the risk of Syrian opposition groups allying with Türkiye to form a powerful new threat to Israel’s security. It stated, “The threat from Syria could become even more dangerous than the Iranian threat.”

To address these challenges, the report recommended increasing the defence budget by up to 15 billion shekels (approximately $4.14 billion) annually over the next five years. This would help counter threats posed by Türkiye and other regional challenges.

Commenting on the report, Netanyahu stated, “We are witnessing fundamental changes in the Middle East. Iran has long been our biggest threat, but new forces are entering the arena, and we must be prepared for the unexpected. This report provides us with a road map for securing Israel’s future.”

The report emphasized the need for Israel to strengthen its military capabilities in anticipation of a potential conflict with Türkiye. It specifically recommended acquiring additional F-15 fighter jets, refuelling aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and satellites to bolster Israel’s long-range strike capacity.

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U.S. relaxes sanctions on Syria, supports HTS leadership

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U.S. President Joe Biden and his administration, soon to be succeeded by Donald Trump, have decided to relax the stringent sanctions regime on Syria, which has been in place for years, in favor of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad.

The U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General Authorization No. 24, signifying a major shift in U.S. sanctions policy towards Syria.

This new authorization, valid until 7 July 2025, eases restrictions on specific transactions involving Syria. For instance, transactions with Syrian administrative institutions will be permitted starting 8 December 2024. Key provisions of the authorization include authorization for the sale, supply, storage, or donation of energy resources, such as oil, natural gas, and electricity, to or within Syria, and permission for processing non-commercial personal remittances to Syria, including through the Central Bank of Syria.

However, military and intelligence organizations remain excluded. Transactions involving the governments of Russia or Iran, as well as their goods or services, are still prohibited. Additionally, importing Syrian petroleum products into the United States remains banned, and new investments in Syria are restricted, with limited exceptions for employee salaries.

This new policy represents a considerable easing of sanctions, potentially allowing U.S. allies in the region to offer humanitarian assistance, engage in economic reconstruction, and increase interaction with Syria’s governing institutions.

Speaking to Reuters yesterday, Maher Khalil al-Hassan, HTS’s trade minister, stated that Syria has struggled to secure deals for importing fuel, wheat, and other essential commodities due to strict U.S. sanctions, despite interest from many countries, including Gulf Arab states. Al-Hassan mentioned that Syria’s new leadership has managed to amass enough wheat and fuel to last several months but warned of an impending “catastrophe” if sanctions are not suspended or lifted soon.

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Does India take advantage of current rising tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan?

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At the height of the current tensions between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan, India condemned Pakistan’s airstrikes in Paktika province in eastern Afghanistan with a delay of two weeks. India is the second country that has officially reacted to these attacks.

In a statement, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India supported the position of the Taliban and condemned the killing of civilians in Pakistan’s attacks. Delhi made no mention of Pakistan’s claim that it had struck four hideouts of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), a group that has become a security problem for the Pakistani military. Delhi ironically said that “Islamabad always blames its neighbors.”

Pakistan traditionally holds India and Afghanistan responsible for internal insurgencies and attacks by terrorist and separatist groups on its soil. Recently, Pakistani officials accused the Afghan Taliban of colluding with India to destabilize Pakistan.

Trust-building

India’s new stance can be described as a clever political game or even political opportunism. India, which has always considered the Taliban as Pakistan’s proxy force in the region and was one of the main supporters of the former Afghan government, now plans to use the tension between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan to get closer to the Taliban.

Over the past three years, New Delhi has tried to reduce its longstanding mistrust with the Taliban. Expelling the ambassador and diplomats of the previous government from Delhi, handing over the Afghan embassy and consulates in India to the Taliban, cutting ties with former allies such as the leaders of the resistance front, and stopping the issuance of visas to former officials have been part of this trust building and rapprochement.

Revival of lost influence

Afghanistan has always been important for Delhi due to its geographical proximity to Pakistan. Pakistan says that Delhi’s purpose in getting closer to Afghanistan was to destabilize the tense areas in Pakistan, especially in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

India has traditionally supported Afghan governments against Pakistan. Due to the dispute with Pakistan over the “Durand Line”, Afghanistan has had enough incentive to get closer to India. India has also provided various economic, technical and diplomatic assistance to Afghanistan to strengthen this relationship.

With the return of the Taliban, India was forced to close its embassy and consulates in Kabul, Balkh, Herat, Nangarhar and Kandahar provinces. Following this, India severed all ties – even people-to-people links – with Afghanistan.

Thousands of Afghan students were prevented from continuing their studies in Indian universities due to lack of visas. After the political collapse in Afghanistan, many believed that the history of India’s influence in Afghanistan was also over.

But the Taliban, unlike the previous period, is trying to establish relations with all countries in the region and is not dependent on a particular country, and took steps to strengthen relations with India.

Yaqoob Mujahid, the Minister of Defense of the Taliban, in an unprecedented statement said that the Taliban is ready to send its forces to India for training. India also responded to the goodwill of the Taliban by sending its diplomats to Kabul.

Recently, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian about expanding relations with Afghanistan through Chabahar port. The government of Iran said that “the talk about Afghanistan was made because of the interest of the Indian side.”

India is seriously trying to reduce the Taliban’s dependence on Pakistan and strengthen its relations through Chabahar.

Approaching the enemy border

The importance of India’s efforts to improve relations with the Taliban and open a foothold in Afghanistan should be seen from the eyes of Pakistan. Islamabad has consistently complained about India’s diplomatic presence in Afghanistan, especially in its border areas.

Pakistan considers India a vital threat and does not accept the country’s proximity to its borders. In the previous government of Afghanistan, relations between Kabul and Islamabad were cold.

Pakistani officials had repeatedly expressed concern about the activities of Indian consulates in Jalalabad and Kandahar in meetings with Afghan leaders. Even some Pakistani leaders had made cooperation in securing peace and stability in Afghanistan conditional on reducing relations with India and closing the country’s embassies in the mentioned cities.

Analysts are unanimous on the point that Pakistan considers Afghanistan as a barrier or an area free of Indian influence. This country has continuously supported the paramilitary groups and the subversive central government in order to establish a pro-Pakistan government.

India sees an opportunity to expand its influence in Afghanistan in the worsening relations between Islamabad and the Taliban. However, it is not clear how far this tension will make the Afghan Taliban rely on Delhi.

What is certain is that Pakistan finds the closeness of the Taliban and India intolerable, just as it was angry about the close relations of the former Afghan government with New Delhi.

Of course, we should not ignore the fact that the Afghan Taliban is as much a double-edged sword for Delhi as it is for Pakistan. Because the Afghan Taliban has not cut off its relations with militant and terrorist groups.

Strengthening the Afghan Taliban also means strengthening Pakistani militant Islamist groups, which Delhi considers a tool in the hands of Pakistan and a threat to its national security.

Rising unrest in Pakistan by TTP, a close ally of the Afghani Taliban has benefited India

In recent decades, part of India’s strategy in Afghanistan has been to weaken Pakistan. Supporting separatist groups and creating unrest in Pakistan is an important part of this policy.

Rising unrest in Pakistan by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a close ally of the Afghan Taliban, has benefited India. From 2020 until now, the level of insecurity in Pakistan has increased steadily and 2024 was the most unstable year in Pakistan in a decade.

Pakistan believes that the insecurity and violence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is organized from the soil of Afghanistan and that the Afghan Taliban have collaborated with India.

Understanding the depth of these tensions, India has taken steps to intensify the differences between the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban by supporting the Taliban. India seeks to increase the dependence of the Afghan Taliban on New Delhi in order to exploit these relations in the long run to weaken Pakistan.

The statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India can probably increase Islamabad’s skepticism towards the Taliban. To solve the problem of militants, Pakistan has increased military and political pressure on the Taliban. However, this pressure will make the Afghan Taliban more inclined towards Delhi.

Despite the absence of three years in the diplomatic arena of Afghanistan, India has been able to advance its goals. Pakistan has suffered the most from the recent developments in Afghanistan. The increase in insecurity in Pakistan is largely related to the events after the fall of the republican system in Afghanistan.

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