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The economic mind of Trumpism – 3: American industry and Elon Musk’s robotic humans

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“The dollar’s continued role as the dominant ‘safe’ currency requires the US economy to adapt to what economist Dani Rodrik describes as the inherent contradiction between global integration and national sovereignty. Rodrik states that countries prioritizing greater global integration must relinquish control over their domestic economies, whereas countries preferring to retain local control must limit the extent to which their economies are open to trade and capital flows.

(…)

Because domestic and external economic imbalances must always be aligned in every country. When some countries restrict capital and trade flows to control their external imbalances and maintain favorable domestic conditions, they can impose their own domestic imbalances on trading partners who have less control over their trade and capital accounts. British economist Joan Robinson called these trade policies ‘beggar-thy-neighbor’ and said they would ultimately lead to an increase in global trade conflicts.

(…)

The dollar’s dominance in global trade and finance was long assumed to provide a net benefit for the American economy, but this assumption is increasingly being questioned. While it benefits Wall Street and owners of globally mobile capital, these benefits come at a cost to American manufacturers and farmers.

In a world where some countries actively manage their external imbalances while others do not, the role played by the US dollar as the primary safe currency has made America the main culprit for global economic distortions. Addressing these imbalances requires a fundamental re-evaluation of the rules governing global trade and capital flows.”

These lines were published in the Financial Times under the byline of Michael Pettis. Pettis works as a specialist at the renowned American think tank Carnegie. My reason for starting with such a long quote is to emphasize that the ideas embodied by Stephen Miran and Scott Bessent in the first two parts [of this series] are being discussed much more widely than assumed, even within the “mainstream.” As the article’s title already suggests, according to Pettis, “the US would be better off without the global dollar.”

Advisor Miran and Secretary Bessent call this the rebalancing of global trade/the economy. Have we seen similar examples before?

Some economists believe we have, pointing to the major transformation during the Richard Nixon-Ronald Reagan eras. For example, Yanis Varoufakis, in an article he wrote for Unherd following the “Liberation Day” tariffs, quotes John Connally, who served as Nixon’s Treasury Secretary in 1971. To persuade the President towards the “Nixon shock,” Connally said, “My philosophy, Mr. President, is that all foreigners are waiting there to screw us, and our job is to screw them first,” and underlined that his aim was to trigger a “controlled disintegration” of the world economy.

Varoufakis believes that the Nixon shock was much harsher than the Trump shock, especially for Europeans, and that it achieved its goals much more completely when considered in terms of its long-term consequences. This outcome was: to expand the US trade and budget deficits in order to maintain and extend American hegemony.

At this point, I recall that we wrote about the tight link between national security policy and the economy, even during the “neoliberal” era. Indeed, Varoufakis also quotes the infamous Paul Volcker, one of Nixon’s advisors, who persuaded Connally towards the “shock”:

“It is tempting to view the market as a neutral arbiter. But a number of countries, including the United States, balancing the requirements of a stable international system with the desire to preserve freedom of action for national policies, chose the latter.”

It was time for Western Europe and Japan to accept that their “economic miracles” created after the Second World War were coming to an end. The “controlled disintegration” of the world economy was a legitimate goal for the US.

The infamous Volcker, who became Fed Chairman, shattered the fixed exchange rate regime and sent interest rates skyrocketing in a single move that would go down in history as the “Volcker shock.”

“Therefore, Trump,” says Varoufakis, “is not the first President to seek a controlled disintegration of the world economy through a destructive blow.”

The former Greek finance minister makes an important observation: Deliberately harming US allies to renew and extend US hegemony; being ready to inflict short-term damage on Wall Street to strengthen capital accumulation in the US in the long run… These were not things we were encountering for the first time either. Nixon had done this; before him, President Hoover’s Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon had done it. “Retreating to leap” was one way to guarantee capital accumulation.

This means that Trump and his team are seeking ways to save American hegemony once again, which began with the Nixon shock and was subsequently secured by the Carter and Reagan administrations. Again, the targets are the devaluation of the dollar, a slight trip-up for Wall Street, and demanding that “foreign capitalists” pay the price.

So what will this world look like if he succeeds? Varoufakis has an answer, which is worth reading even though it’s a long quote:

“Perhaps it is too early to say, but neoliberalism has already been challenged by the techno-feudal faith of neo-reactionaries like Peter Thiel. Cloud capital is replacing financial capital, putting the holy grail of the transhuman condition (the fusion of cloud capital, artificial intelligence, and the biological individual) in place of the market’s divine role. Financialization will soon be under similar pressure. As AI develops, Wall Street will not be able to continue resisting the fusion of cloud capital and finance, as seen in Elon Musk’s ambition to turn X into an “everything app”. Such developments will do to payments what the internet did to fax machines, and will have serious implications for financial stability, including any future role for the Federal Reserve. And instead of the dream of the Global Village, we shall have the Walled Nation. However, the retreat of globalisation does not mean that autarky is possible. The Trump Shock is pushing us towards a bifurcated planet; one part of which consists of vassal states bowing to the Trump Plan, while the other consists of countries allowed to pursue the BRICS experiment on their own trajectory.”

It’s not entirely clear whether the picture Varoufakis paints is optimistic or pessimistic. But the problems of a “rebalancing” focused on the dollar’s value surface with every tariff Trump imposes (and withdraws!).

The White House says it imposes tariffs to bring manufacturing back to the US (reshoring). But does this tool serve the purpose of rebalancing? The answer is most likely no.

For example, tariffs on aluminum and steel, which are basic intermediate inputs for manufacturing, do not seem likely to rebalance the US economy towards more manufacturing.

Companies are expected to absorb some of the tariff costs and pass the rest on to consumers. According to some estimates, the additional cost of just automobile tariffs could mean a price increase of $5,000 to $10,000 per vehicle. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers calculates that the overall net effect of the tariffs would cost a family of four approximately $300,000.

Furthermore, the lack of certainty, the inability to see the economic impact of tariffs that are sometimes imposed and sometimes paused, and the failure to combine this entire “reshoring” goal with an appropriate state incentive strategy are leading the American economy towards recession. For example, along with the “Liberation Day” tariffs, Trump and DOGE ended the Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP) program, which had supported the American manufacturing sector for decades. MEP was established by Congress in the 1980s, at the height of the US trade war with Japan, to provide advice to small American manufacturers.

MEP provided taxpayer-subsidized consulting services to thousands of businesses in all 50 states, including manufacturers of ovens, printers, tortillas, and dog food.

Moreover, this shock is being felt not only in financial markets but also in the “real” economy. In March, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was below 50 (49). According to the Washington Post, manufacturing trade groups say they are inundated with calls from members concerned about canceled orders and slowing growth.

Almost all groups in the manufacturing sector say they are facing higher costs for basic materials or machinery, and several say they have already seen demand “drying up” due to tariff-related uncertainty.

It is a fact that the share of manufacturing in the US economy, as well as the proportion of American workers employed in factories, has hit rock bottom. However, this fact also obscures some other realities: Although the number of workers employed in manufacturing has remained stagnant, manufacturing output continues to increase; in other words, productivity is rising. Developments in automation are progressing in parallel with the general laws of capital accumulation.

Furthermore, although not on the scale of “reindustrialization,” we can track from statistics that there has been a partial manufacturing revival since the 2008 crisis: In the 20 years from 1990 to 2010, the share of the manufacturing sector in employment had fallen from 16 percent to 9 percent. However, this steady decline, which had been ongoing since 1953, slowed considerably from 2010 onwards.

In the 15 years since 2010, manufacturing’s share of total employment has fallen by only one percentage point, from 9 percent to 8 percent. The reason for this is that, excluding the Covid years, the number of manufacturing jobs in the US increased from 2010 to 2022.

For example, some writers like Dan McLaughlin point out that manufacturing has shifted regionally from the Midwest and has actually migrated to the South rather than going abroad; they also point to major developments in automation, which mean that factories can produce more with fewer workers today.

McLaughlin writes:

“Just as previous generations who hated factory jobs romanticized farming, there is a tendency to romanticize manufacturing work. We can acknowledge the real human cost of closed factories and still recognize that not every manufacturing job is equally appealing compared to its alternatives: many blue-collar men would likely prefer driving an Amazon delivery truck or working on a construction site to working in a textile mill. Furthermore, economic populists tend to confuse manufacturing jobs with manufacturing capacity. They say it is dangerous for our national security if we can no longer produce things.”

Moreover, relatively few Americans actually want to work in a factory. According to the Financial Times, recent polls show that 80% of Americans think the country would be better off with more manufacturing jobs, but only 25% think they personally would be better off in such jobs.

On the other hand, tariffs are pushing buyers of custom manufacturing services to rapidly reorganize their supply chains, including turning to American suppliers to build their products.

The “SME” strategy is becoming critical here. US small and medium-sized manufacturers also want to benefit from this period and grow their customer base both domestically and abroad.

The US is home to over 500,000 SMEs specializing in everything from CNC machining and injection molding to sheet metal fabrication, 3D printing, and more.

In recent years, buyers have accelerated reshoring efforts, spurred by COVID-19, federal legislation such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the CHIPS and Science Act, and now the global trade environment.

Xometry, which serves as a “digital marketplace” for custom manufacturing, has been tracking the reshoring trend for over two years through its quarterly “Resurgence of American Manufacturing” surveys conducted with Zogby Strategies.

According to the data, in the first quarter, nearly half (42%) of manufacturing CEOs said they had successfully “reshored” facilities, while 19% stated they planned to do so as a result of tariffs.

It is precisely at this point that the trend of “Silicon Valley-ization” appears to be enveloping the entire economy like an octopus: 70% of manufacturing CEOs are adopting emerging technologies like artificial intelligence to achieve efficiency in planning and operations, with automation closely following.

Most of these companies investing in AI have achieved a significant return on investment, and nearly two-thirds (63%) believe that AI and other technologies will be “transformational” for their operations.

In addition to technology, as America’s industrial core becomes more high-tech, manufacturing CEOs are also investing in “talent.”

On the other hand, a survey by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reveals that in March, even before Trump declared the “Liberation Day” tariffs, small business optimism experienced its sharpest drop since 2020; it should, of course, be noted that Republicans were more optimistic than Democrats.

The new tech brokers, whom Varoufakis calls “techno-feudals,” are using the Trump administration as a tool to transform the economy with artificial intelligence, automation, and digitalization.

“President Trump is a successful businessman who has spent decades building productive and successful companies. He knows that the real bosses are the American taxpayers and will continue to demand the high level of dedication and excellence that the American people deserve from all government employees.”

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly says this. The same Trump, as the “CEO of the US,” says regarding personnel cuts in the federal government, “everyone is replaceable.”

Billionaire Musk, Trump’s biggest supporter, says, “You can’t change the world on 40 hours a week.” When asked, “How much do you need?” he doesn’t hesitate: “It varies by person, but about 80 [hours] consistently, sometimes over 100. The pain level increases exponentially above 80.”

If you work 7 days a week, that amounts to 14 hours a day. What Musk and Trump mean by “bringing production back to the US” seems to be like the “factory system” of the 19th century, where English workers were worked to death.

The “transhuman” robot fantasy points not to a system where production is done by humanoid robots, but one where humans are made robotic.

The economic mind of Trumpism — 2: Scott Bessent, the American Dream, and the beauty of the private sector

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Israel looks to Latin America as Isaac Accords seek to expand regional partnerships

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23/06/2026

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As ties between Israel and Latin American countries continue to deepen, the newly launched Isaac Accords are emerging as a framework for expanding cooperation across the region.

The initiative formed the backdrop to a panel discussion on opportunities for Israel in the Western Hemisphere at the 2026 JNS International Policy Summit in Jerusalem on Monday.

The panel, titled “The Coming Isaac Accords: Israel and Latin America,” brought together diplomats and regional experts to discuss developments that could encourage participation in the Isaac Accords, the strategic framework announced in April by Argentine President Javier Milei and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during Milei’s visit to Israel.

Moderated by JNS correspondent Etgar Lefkovits, the discussion featured Panama’s Ambassador to Israel Ezra Cohen, former US Ambassador to Costa Rica Fitzgerald Haney, and Leah Soibel, founder and CEO of Fuente Latina, which provides Middle East news coverage to Spanish-language media outlets.

Soibel said:

“What we need to understand is that the Isaac Accords have an impact that extends far beyond diplomacy. Twenty percent of the US population is Hispanic. By 2050, that figure is expected to reach 30% of the population. This is the demographic group with the lowest levels of antisemitic sentiment.”

The panel also celebrated the victory of pro-US and pro-Israel candidate Abelardo De La Espriella, who defeated his left-wing rival in Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday.

De La Espriella had made the restoration of relations with Israel and the relocation of his country’s embassy to Jerusalem central elements of his campaign platform.

Cohen said that when he looks at a map of Latin America, only four countries are currently governed by left-wing, anti-Israel administrations.

Referring to an earlier panel discussing what participants described as a bleak future for Jews in Europe, Cohen remarked: “When one window closes, another opens. Come to Latin America.”

Haney argued that “Israel’s friends keep winning” and predicted that “we are going to see a lot more positive developments coming out of Latin America.”

He said a colleague in Colombia had sent him a text message promising: “On August 7 at 5 p.m., we will restore relations with Israel.”

Haney noted that this was the date and time when Colombia’s new president is scheduled to take office and predicted that another announcement regarding the relocation of Colombia’s embassy to Jerusalem would follow.

He described Colombia as the latest in a series of Latin American countries turning toward Israel in pursuit of “shared values, shared prosperity and shared security.”

Haney also said that the Israel Allies Foundation, a pro-Israel advocacy group that works with lawmakers, would bring together representatives from 11 legislative bodies across Latin America in Buenos Aires over the weekend to sign a joint declaration of principles.

He noted that the organisation had successfully worked with Brazil’s legislature despite the position of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whom he described as anti-Israel.

According to Haney, Brazil’s legislature has developed a plan to deepen relations with Israel over the next nine months.

Soibel said that 12 Latin American countries had renewed or strengthened their friendships with Israel and that interest in Israel among Spanish-language content creators, influencers and journalists continues to grow. Her organisation has brought 300 non-Jewish Hispanic journalists to Israel.

The panel also highlighted the launch of a Panama-based Spanish-language edition of JNS. Soibel said the work of pro-Israel organisations remains vital because so few such groups operate in the region, while, in her words, “Iran, Qatar and Hezbollah are conducting propaganda campaigns in Spanish throughout Latin America.”

She continued:

“You could probably count on one hand, perhaps two, the number of organisations and leaders operating across the Spanish-speaking world. That makes this work extraordinarily strategic. Its impact is enormous. Israel and the Jewish people should invest more. There is a large Hispanic-Israeli population in Israel, and many of them were victims of the October 7 attacks. We have stories to tell. What we need now is investment and distribution channels to spread those messages and information.”

The panel concluded on an optimistic note, with participants expressing confidence that Latin America will become an increasingly important pillar of Israel’s global diplomatic strategy in the years ahead.

Milei and Netanyahu launch new accord

Argentine President Javier Milei and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the launch of the Isaac Accords last Saturday.

The initiative establishes a new strategic framework aimed at strengthening cooperation among Argentina, Israel and like-minded partners across the Western Hemisphere, described as “the descendants of Isaac and nations rooted in the Judeo-Christian tradition,” in defence of freedom and democracy and in the fight against terrorism, antisemitism and drug trafficking.

Participating countries will seek to strengthen coordination against what the agreement describes as terrorist organisations, with particular emphasis on “Iran’s efforts to expand terrorist networks and operational presence throughout the Western Hemisphere.”

The initiative also seeks to promote coordination and alignment in international forums while creating a framework for expanded cooperation in innovation, technology, trade and economic openness.

Speaking alongside Netanyahu at a joint press conference, Milei said:

“We expressed our unwavering support for the United States and Israel in their struggle against terrorism and the Iranian regime, not only because it is the right thing to do, but also because our countries are united through shared suffering.”

Milei referred to the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires and the 1994 attack on the AMIA Jewish community centre.

Although Argentine courts have attributed both attacks to Iran, Tehran has consistently denied any involvement.

Netanyahu praised the Argentine leader for demonstrating what he called “moral clarity” by standing with Israel and said he hoped other Latin American governments would join the Isaac Accords, which both leaders described as being inspired by the Abraham Accords.

The Abraham Accords, brokered by Washington in 2020, triggered a wave of normalisation in Arab-Israeli diplomatic relations.

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee attended the signing ceremony and described Milei and Netanyahu as “President Trump’s two closest friends.”

Huckabee added: “I do not think there are two other world leaders whom our president respects as much and with whom he has such a personal relationship.”

During the visit, the two sides also announced the launch of the first direct commercial flights between Buenos Aires and Tel Aviv, scheduled to begin in November.

Milei said the new route would create an “unbreakable bond” between the two countries and reiterated his intention to relocate Argentina’s embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

“As soon as circumstances permit, we once again reaffirm our commitment to moving the Argentine embassy to Jerusalem,” he said.

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Iran team leaves thank-you message in Los Angeles locker room after World Cup draw

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22/06/2026

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Iran’s national football team left a message in its locker room at SoFi Stadium, thanking Los Angeles for its hospitality during the World Cup.

The players said they were leaving the city with honor after keeping their hopes of reaching the knockout stage alive with a 0-0 draw against Belgium.

In the handwritten note, published by the Iran Football Federation, the team wrote:

“From the ancient land of Persia thousands of years ago to the civilized Iran of today, the spirit of Iran remains alive and unshaken. Los Angeles, thank you for your hospitality. We arrived in Los Angeles with pride, competed with honor and leave with dignity.”

The note also thanked Iranian supporters who gave their “hearts, voices and souls” to the team throughout its two matches and concluded with a call for peace, respect and friendship among all nations.

Los Angeles hosted both of Iran’s Group G matches, while the team returned to its training base in Tijuana between games.

Iran has been based in Tijuana throughout the tournament and has had to travel back and forth to the United States for matches because of restrictions related to its stay in the country. Entry bans were also imposed on some members of the national team’s coaching staff and officials.

US authorities said the team’s travel arrangements remain under review, while discussions continue over the possible easing of some restrictions.

Iran head coach Emir Ghalenoei has repeatedly criticized the travel restrictions, saying his squad has faced challenges that no other team in the tournament has been required to endure.

After drawing 2-2 with New Zealand in its opening match at SoFi Stadium, Iran will play its final Group G match against Egypt in Seattle.

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Colombia’s de la Espriella claims narrow presidential victory in runoff election

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22/06/2026

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The first results from Colombia’s presidential runoff election showed that right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, backed by Donald Trump, had narrowly won the vote.

The victory of de la Espriella, who has no prior political experience, signals a fundamental shift in the government’s approach to tackling the country’s long-running internal armed conflict and rising violence.

Throughout the campaign, de la Espriella pledged to intensify military pressure on illegal armed groups, drug trafficking networks and criminal organizations. He succeeded in defeating left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda, a close ally of incumbent President Gustavo Petro.

Speaking after the initial results were released, de la Espriella said: “Today marks the beginning of a new era for our country. This era is built on the free and democratic will of millions of citizens who chose to believe in a great, secure, prosperous Colombia full of opportunities.”

Cepeda says he will await official results

According to the preliminary count, with more than 99% of ballots tallied in the runoff election, de la Espriella secured approximately 49.7% of the vote, while Cepeda received 48.7%.

Cepeda, who has not yet conceded defeat, said the preliminary results were neither official nor binding.

“When the official count is completed, the final results are known and the necessary verification procedures are finished, we will recognize the official outcome produced by that process,” Cepeda said.

Reuters reported that the verification process showed very little variation from the preliminary counts recorded during the first round of voting on May 31.

De la Espriella, who grew up in Colombia’s Caribbean region, drew particularly strong support from that part of the country. Addressing a large crowd gathered in the coastal city of Barranquilla after the first results emerged, de la Espriella, who has adopted the nickname “El Tigre” (The Tiger), declared: “Tonight is the beginning of a new story for the nation. Tonight a new era begins, a change of order begins.”

He said he would govern for all Colombians, including those who voted for his opponent, and pledged loyalty to and protection of Colombia’s 1991 constitution.

At celebrations in Barranquilla, supporters wore Colombia’s yellow national football jersey and waved Colombian flags.

With images of de la Espriella projected behind the stage, supporters chanted “Stand firm for the homeland” and “Petro out!” as fireworks lit the sky. Some supporters wore hats bearing the slogan “Make Colombia Great Again,” echoing those worn by supporters of US President Donald Trump.

Trump reacted to the results in a Truth Social post, writing: “BIG won!”

One supporter, Patricia, told reporters: “We are tired of the murders in this country and of this government’s bureaucracy. Now we finally have a president from the coastal region.”

Another supporter said: “We are proud of the Tiger. We hope he transforms the country and, above all, creates a new nation where we will have jobs and greater security.”

Supporters of Cepeda, who narrowly lost the election, also voiced concerns on the streets of Barranquilla.

Catalina La Grande, a student and activist who supports Cepeda, told the BBC: “There is a visible sense of unease in the air. Such a narrow margin worries us because it reflects how divided the country is and the enormous challenges we face in defending democracy, peace and human rights.”

Another young voter backing Cepeda, Maria, said the results showed a divided country but noted that the public had remained peaceful.

“Given the level of polarization we are experiencing, the absence of violence in the streets is a positive development,” she said.

The sharp divisions between the candidates have fueled concerns that unrest could emerge if some opposition groups refuse to accept the outcome.

Late on Sunday night, clashes were reported between protesters and police in Cali, Colombia’s third-largest city. Demonstrators reportedly burned US flags, while police used tear gas to disperse large crowds angered by de la Espriella’s victory.

President Gustavo Petro is also reported to be considering challenging the result. In a post on X, Petro said that based on the preliminary count, “no one can be declared president” and alleged that the security of some polling stations had been compromised. He called for an audit of the voting software but provided no evidence to support the claims.

Who is Abelardo de la Espriella?

De la Espriella, who has no political background, is a lawyer and businessman. During his legal career, he represented clients including Alex Saab, an ally of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro who has faced money laundering charges in the US, and David Murcia Guzman, one of Colombia’s most notorious fraudsters.

De la Espriella says he handled those cases in his capacity as a defense attorney.

Often compared to El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele because of his security policies and distinctive beard, de la Espriella and his supporters frequently wear Colombia’s national football jersey at rallies and on social media. Critics accuse him of politicizing the national team shirt.

He is also known for regularly addressing campaign crowds from behind bulletproof glass panels.

Colombia’s internal armed conflict has persisted for decades, but violence has intensified in recent years. Armed groups and criminal organizations, including dissident factions of the FARC, the ELN and the Clan del Golfo, have doubled their membership over the past five years.

Competition for control of lucrative cocaine trafficking routes and illegal mining operations has further escalated the violence. Fighting along the Colombia-Venezuela border last year displaced tens of thousands of people. Cocaine production in the world’s largest cocaine-producing country has reached record levels.

Critics of President Petro argue that his “total peace” strategy, which prioritizes negotiations with armed groups, has failed, claiming that such groups have used ceasefire arrangements to expand their territorial control and influence.

De la Espriella has pledged to cancel all negotiations with illegal armed groups and increase military pressure to restore order.

As part of that agenda, he has promised closer cooperation with the US, the construction of massive prisons in Colombia’s forests, a smaller state apparatus and reforms to the healthcare system.

Having lived and worked in Miami for many years, de la Espriella has held US citizenship since 2023. During the election campaign, he received support from Donald Trump, who said de la Espriella would “stop illegal migration, fight crime and drugs, and restore law and order.”

Before the election, Trump also said de la Espriella would feel “the full support and strength of the United States” behind him.

Although Colombia has historically been one of Washington’s closest allies in the region, relations have become strained in recent years due to sharp disagreements between President Trump and President Petro over migration policy, tariffs and military intervention in Latin America.

De la Espriella’s election also aligns with a broader trend across Latin America, where security concerns have pushed politics to the right. His victory was welcomed by other conservative leaders across the region.

Argentine President Javier Milei said Colombians had “chosen the path of economic freedom, prosperity and uncompromising security” and had declared that enough was enough to transnational organized crime and drug trafficking.

Chile’s José Antonio Kast said: “A new era of freedom is beginning for Colombia, one that will allow the country to regain security and prosperity.”

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