Russia
The future of war after Kherson
What had been rumored anxiously for some time by the supporters of Russia’s ‘Special Military Operation’ in Ukraine came true; the commander of the operation, Sergei Surovikin, announced that they would withdraw the troops from Kherson region to the left bank of Dnieper River. Civilians had already begun to be evacuated in mid-October, based on the intelligence that Ukraine could destroy the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, causing flooding.
The Russian general staff seems to have decided that the troops in Kherson cannot rely on supplies coming through Dnieper. The Ukrainian general staff agrees: their army destroyed Russia’s logistic hubs, command, and supply systems, and therefore “the enemy had no choice but to resort to fleeing from Kherson.”
So, both sides are convinced that the Kherson issue is a military imperative. There is no doubt that this is one of the aspects of this matter. However, it is not difficult to predict that the issue will have far too political dimension and consequences, given that Kherson is one of the Ukrainian oblasts that joined the Russian Federation in a referendum last September and the “forever with Russia” billboards in the city are kept in mind.
Public reactions in Russia
In Russia, it is doubted that the left-wing and right-wing parties of United Russia have significant differences in their political stance toward Ukraine. It’s not possible to find a party in Duma against ‘Special Military Operation.’
However, the forces led by the right-wing Rodina and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the left-wing Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) are critical of the way in which the operation is conducted, and this is becoming increasingly political. In particular, the CPRF argues that the military issue cannot be resolved unless the operation is called ‘war’ and the economy is restructured accordingly. Russia’s left-wing also expected the Putin administration would carry out a ‘left turn’ with the Ukrainian war because of its nature. But the United Russian government continues following its way, ignoring calls from the left to nationalize the economy.
Another criticism is the fate of local people, now in the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in Ukraine’s oblasts next to Russia. One of the reasons for Putin’s leadership’s intervention in Ukraine was the liberation of the Russian-speaking people living in the east of the country from neo-Nazi pressure. Although it is now considered Russian territory, the lives of pro-Russian people are feared in Kherson, which has been abandoned to Ukraine. Indeed, Ukrainian troops’ posts shared on their Telegram account after entering the city reveal that this terrible expectation has become a reality.
The Russian media, on the other hand, exhibits a great deal of criticism and polyphony, contrary to our perception and that of the West. For example, an article in Russia’s most popular military news portal topwar.ru states that Kherson was handed over without a single bullet being fired, yet ‘sold’ and ‘shameless propagandists’ would legitimize it. The article remarks that what the Russian leadership calls a ‘Special Military Operation’ means war all over the world, and that Russia must now put aside ‘commercial interests’ and engage in ‘a real war’.
According to another website, Katyusha, if the withdrawal from Kherson is not due to a cunning strategy, this is the greatest defeat of the Russian army since 1991, and it is inevitable that the confidence of ordinary people in the leadership of the country will be shaken. Katyusha remains hopeful that the retreat is a trap, but it also does not rule out the possibility that the abandonment of Kherson was due to a backdoor diplomacy between the U.S. and Russia. Both publications suggest that the death of Deputy Governor of Kherson, Kirill Stremousov, who was reportedly killed in a car crash, was questionable, as he opposed the evacuation.
Domestic political conflicts in Russia
While the war continues and the cracking voices in the local public are rising, some polarizations in politics also emerge. Although it is not the first ring of Russian leadership, the polarizations in the second ring are getting deeper.
The most obvious example of this is the interaction between Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder and owner of Wagner, and Alexander Beglov, Governor of St. Petersburg. Prigozhin and media outlets close to him had been claiming for some time that Beglov had established a ‘criminal organization.’ Prigozhin’s company Concord took another step and applied to the Prosecutor General’s Offices of the Russian Federation and the intelligence organization FSB to have Beglov investigated on charges of ‘high treason’. If we give the Latvian-based Meduza website the benefit of doubt, the reason Prigozhin has been waging war on Beglov is because the Governor of Petersburg interfered with some of Wagner’s founders’ business ventures. Finally, the business center Wagner wanted to build in St. Petersburg was denied by the governor’s office.
It should also be noted that Prigozhin’s side also includes Chechnya leader, Ramzan Kadyrov. The two were targeted by General Alexandr Lapin, the commander of the Central Military District, who left his post citing health problems and was replaced by Andrey Mordvicev, close to the Prigozhin-Kadyrov duo.
Kadyrov’s actions are not limited to this. The Chechen leader has long been criticizing the Russian army openly. After the defeat at Liman, Kadyrov blamed General Lapin and Prigozhin immediately joined him. Some believe that the Kadyrov-Prigozhin duo’s public criticism of the Russian armed forces stems from Wagner’s ‘private business relations.’
It’s clear that this issue is more intricate than it seems. The two are thought to be mainly aimed at Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov. Several retired officers and columnists also responded to the salvos of the Kadyrov-Prigozhin duo, describing the pair’s behavior as ‘demotivating.’
Potential secret alliance with the United States
The media also voiced their suspicions that there might be a secret compromise between Moscow and Washington. The Kherson retreat is still more suspicious after Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of the Security Council of Russia and Jake Sullivan, the United States National Security Advisor, allegedly held a secret meeting.
Sources close to Russia say the Putin leadership has decided to end the war by reaching a comprehensive agreement with the ‘Collective West’. The fact that both Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said they did not exclude negotiations with Ukraine and the West could also be seen as a signal. Following the missiles that fell on a village in Poland, regardless of Kyiv’s and Warsaw’s call for the implementation of Article 5 of the NATO treaty, U.S. President Joe Biden’s refusal to blame Russia is also a sign that something has been ‘cooked’ behind closed doors.
The understanding that such an agreement is favored by the Russian leadership, as well as China, India, Turkey, Iran, and other Middle Eastern countries, is becoming widespread. In the West, the influence of the Kadyrov-Prigozhin duo, which comes from Russia and is thought to be a ‘hawk’, is not much exaggerated. The closest example of this is an article published on Carnegie discussing the influence of the Kadyrov-Prigozhin duo on the Kremlin. “They talk the talk, Putin won’t listen to them,” concludes the article’s author in a nutshell.
The weak Trumpist wave in the U.S. by-election also seems to have pushed the Russian leadership to seek a deal. Undoubtedly, the possible presidency of Trump, seen as the voice of American industrialists, will be preferred in Russia. But now that these hopes have been shelved, a need for contact with the ‘Collective West’ seems to have arisen. The meeting of U.S. and Russian spy chiefs in Turkey also speaks volumes more than nuclear fear.
Russia
Russia relaxes diesel export curbs after talks with Trump
Russia has announced that it will ship 500,000 tonnes of diesel fuel to the global market under a partial lifting of its diesel export ban, enacted as part of measures concerning the Ukraine crisis and energy markets.
A statement from the Russian government said the decision was implemented in accordance with understandings reached between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.
Under the decision, which came into effect on 10 October, an initial phase of 500,000 tonnes of diesel fuel will be supplied to the global market.
“Following the rescinded decision, Russian oil companies, in coordination with the government, will immediately begin signing diesel fuel supply contracts with foreign business partners,” the government statement said.
Assessing the matter, Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak stressed that the decision would not affect the interests of Russian consumers.
Noting that diesel fuel is produced from Russian crude at domestic refineries, Novak stated that production volumes are sufficient both to meet all domestic market requirements in full and to ship the specified quantities to the global market.
The ban on diesel fuel exports in Russia was initially put into effect on 31 January 2026, covering only non-producing companies.
The government tightened the restrictions on 9 July by expanding them to include direct producers. Previously announced to remain in place until the end of October, the ban was partially relaxed in light of current developments.
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump held a telephone conversation on 9 October. Following the call, US President Trump announced that an agreement had been reached on the supply of Russian diesel.
Trump said Russia had agreed to send more than 300,000 tonnes of fuel to American and global markets in the initial phase, 500,000 tonnes in November, and 1 million tonnes thereafter.
Trump also stated that an additional shipment of 3 million tonnes could follow at a later stage, adding that they expect this agreement to reduce diesel fuel prices rapidly.
Following the conversation, the US Department of the Treasury, on Trump’s instructions, issued a temporary general licence exempting Russian diesel fuel transactions and shipments to the US—previously prohibited under sanctions—until 7 April 2027.
Putin, in a statement after the call, confirmed Russia’s readiness to supply crude oil and petroleum products to American and global markets, noting that this would have a positive impact on the world economy.
Putin also noted that the two leaders discussed prospects for resolving the conflict in Ukraine, the situation surrounding Iran, and bilateral relations, agreeing to maintain contacts through presidential envoys, intelligence agencies, and other institutions.
A statement issued by Novak’s office after the call said Russia was prepared to ship diesel to the US within October.
Novak stated that export volumes could be increased in November and December as refineries emerge from scheduled maintenance.
Novak also conveyed that Moscow views positively Washington’s steps towards stabilising the global energy market and normalising energy trade.
Russia
Drone strike shuts down Yandex data centre in Russia’s Ryazan region
A drone strike has hit a data centre belonging to Russian internet company Yandex in the town of Sasovo, located in the Ryazan region.
The company announced that a fire triggered by the attack damaged part of the infrastructure and resulted in a complete shutdown of the facility’s operations. No casualties or injuries were reported in the incident.
In a statement, Yandex said competent authorities and relevant teams were working at the scene to remediate the damage.
Owing to the facility being knocked offline, it was noted that some of the company’s online services might temporarily become inaccessible to users.
The company provided no details regarding the financial scale of the damage or when the data centre would be brought back into service.
Shares slide, cloud infrastructure curbs introduced
Following the developments, Yandex shares fell by more than 3.4% as of 10:10 Türkiye time.
A drone threat alert was reportedly communicated to residents of the Ryazan region at 23:48 on the night of 7 October, with the alarm lifted at 02:46 on the morning of 8 October. The facility in Sasovo had commenced operations in 2014.
In an advisory issued via the Yandex Cloud Alerts channel, it was reported that power issues were occurring in the system’s “ru-central1-b” availability zone.
The company stated that efforts to transfer data workloads to other availability zones had been completed and that services in other zones continued to operate normally.
However, it was noted that temporary restrictions could be imposed on the creation of new resources within the cloud infrastructure. According to data from outage-monitoring platform Downdetector, an increase in user complaints concerning Yandex, Yandex Cloud, and the real estate platform CIAN was recorded on the morning of 8 October. Reports were observed to have originated predominantly from Moscow and surrounding regions.

Data centre targeted for first time after logistics warehouses
Whether the attack directly targeted the data centre remains unconfirmed. Nevertheless, as of 8 October, this went on record as the first drone strike directed at data centres in Russia.
Beginning in the summer months of 2026, warehouses belonging to Russia’s leading e-commerce platforms had faced drone attacks.
Fires at several warehouses owned by the company Wildberries caused hundreds of billions of roubles in losses for sellers, after which logistics centres belonging to the company Ozon were also targeted.
Both companies amended their contractual terms, shifting liability for damages arising from attacks onto sellers.
Yandex facilities had previously experienced a widespread outage on 30 March 2025 due to a transformer failure, which temporarily disabled services including Yandex Cloud, Yandex Music, and Yandex Lavka.
Russia
US and Russian figures discuss American stake in Nord Stream lines
Senior officials from Russia and the US have reportedly discussed involving an American investor in the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines.
According to a report by the Reuters news agency based on five sources, those taking part in contacts included Kirill Dmitriyev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and the Russian president’s special representative for investment and economic cooperation with foreign states, and Jared Kushner, son-in-law of the US leader.
Two sources providing information on the scope of the discussions said that while it remains unclear how detailed the consideration of the Nord Stream topic was, the matter nevertheless remains on the agenda.
Kushner reportedly views business-oriented cooperation as an instrument in initiatives aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
A potential agreement could reportedly offer US investors an opportunity to profit from energy shipments to Europe once the war ends.
White House states no recent contacts have taken place
A White House official told Reuters that no negotiations regarding Nord Stream have been conducted recently.
The official emphasised that any agreement with Russia would require approval from the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the US Department of the Treasury, adding that such steps must yield benefits for US taxpayers and companies.
Another US official described reaching an understanding in the medium term as unlikely due to existing obstacles.
The natural gas pipelines are subject to US and European Union sanctions. A spokesperson for the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy stated that the approval of the German federal government is mandatory for the pipelines to be brought back into service, adding that the Berlin administration does not support such a step.
The spokesperson also recalled that Germany has secured alternative supplies to Russian gas.
The ownership structure of Nord Stream also features among the issues complicating the ground for negotiations.
In the consortium operating the project, Russian energy giant Gazprom holds a 51% stake, while the combined share of two German partners stands at 31%.
The remaining shares are held by France- and Netherlands-based companies.
A source speaking to the agency stated that the German partners wish to retain their stakes in order to preserve their influence in the project should Gazprom’s shares be sold.
What had American investor Lynch proposed?
The concept of involving a US financier in the Nord Stream projects had also surfaced in 2024.
American investor Stephen Lynch, founder of Monte Valle Partners, who conducted commercial activities in Russia for 20 years, had applied to the US administration for a licence allowing him to bid if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline were put up for auction.
Lynch described this potential move as an opportunity to keep Europe’s energy supply under control until the fossil-fuel era ends, as well as leverage against Russia in peace negotiations.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party described the possibility of transferring the pipeline to Lynch as an illustration of the German government’s irrational policy.
Separately, The New York Times (NYT) reported earlier this month that Ukraine-related contacts between Russia and the US were expanding to include a multi-billion-dollar oil deal covering Lukoil’s foreign assets.
The assets in question included Lukoil’s refineries in Eastern Europe as well as filling stations in the US.
NYT sources reported that discussions in this framework were also addressed during a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Steven Witkoff, and Kushner.
The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines took place in September 2022, with three of the four lines damaged by explosions.
One string of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which had not yet been commissioned at the time, remained intact.
The Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSB) classified the incident as an act of international terrorism, while Putin claimed that “Anglo-Saxons” were behind the attack.
In investigations into the incident, judicial proceedings were pursued against several Ukrainian citizens, including professional diver Vladimir Juravlyov, suspected of planting explosives off the island of Bornholm, and Sergey Kuznetsov, who allegedly skippered the yacht Andromeda.
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