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The Kursk battles and the crisis of Russian military strategy

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While everyone was waiting for Iran to attack Israel, Ukraine opened a new front in the Kursk Oblast bordering Russia. On the morning of 6 August, the Ukrainian army advanced to a depth of 10 to 15 kilometres in the Kursk region, capturing some settlements and carrying out intensive shelling of civilian targets.

At the same time, there were rumours that the Ukrainian army was planning to seize the Kursk nuclear power plant and the Sudja gas station.

At the beginning of the offensive, at 8am, according to the Russian Defence Ministry, about 300 Ukrainian troops, 11 tanks and more than 20 armoured vehicles moved to the border of the Kursk region. The Russian army and border guards (Rosgvardia) initially managed to repel the attack, destroying some tanks and armoured vehicles.

However, the fighting continued and intensified throughout the day, with air defence systems deployed near the border hampering the Russian air force, which went on the offensive, resulting in the capture of three Russian villages by Ukrainian troops.

Immediately after the attack, Russian President Vladimir Putin convened a meeting of the Security Council at 13:00. As at every sensitive moment, the Russian authorities used the rhetoric of an act of terrorism, aimed at minimising the psychological impact on the population, but which for a long time bordered on denial.

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova was no exception, setting out the official position: “We are talking about a new act of terrorism. It is clearly directed against the civilian population.

When you have hundreds of soldiers, armoured vehicles and tanks, air defence systems and thousands of foreign mercenaries on standby, it is not just an act of “terror”, it is an act of war. More specifically, it is the opening of a new front in this war. Perhaps it will fail, but for now they are holding the villages of Kursk.

The fact that Kyiv is targeting an energy and trade route is another matter.

Until now, natural gas from Russia has been transported to the European Union via two gas metering stations: Sokhranovka and Sudzha. In 2022, Naftogaz, Ukraine’s state-owned gas company, refused to supply gas to Europe via Sokhranovka because it is located in the Lugansk People’s Republic. The only remaining route is Sudzha, which is currently under attack. So the aim seems to be to take control of the Sudja station and then destroy it.

It is possible to see another purpose in the current configuration: Kharkiv against Kursk. Kyiv wants to force Moscow to withdraw its troops from Kharkiv in order to regain the territory it has lost in the Kursk Oblast. Although Russia retains the initiative on the front line, it would be the loser in such a situation.

Current situation on the ground

Kommersant quoted Health Minister Mikhail Murashko as saying that 69 victims of the 11 August shelling in Kursk oblast had been hospitalised, 17 of them in serious condition. Of the 29 outpatients, 8 have been discharged.

A rocket attack on Kursk early on Sunday destroyed a nine-storey building and injured 13 people, two of them seriously.

According to local officials, the situation in the border regions remains tense following the attack by Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance troops. However, there are currently no active clashes in the Belyovsky and Oboyansky regions.

Source: Kommersant

The Russian Defence Ministry reported that 14 drones and four Tochka-U tactical missiles were intercepted over Kursk on the night of 11 August.

Meanwhile, Alexei Lihachev, head of the federal nuclear corporation Rosatom, discussed the threat to the Kursk nuclear power plant with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) President Rafael Grossi, stressing the global risks posed by the situation.

Evacuations continue in the region, with more than 76,000 people displaced and more than 4,400 in temporary shelters.

Official discourse and loss of trust

From the beginning, the Russian Ministry of Defence kept the information it released to a minimum. First it said that an attack had been launched by 300 troops, then that it was a thousand and that they had been repulsed. But on the evening of the second day, as Ukrainian troops continued to advance, the evening news showed unrealistic scenes with officials making statements that were far from reality. In fact, at least five brigades of between 7,000 and 17,000 troops had entered Russian territory.

But Kursk residents who witnessed the situation with their own eyes, and war correspondents such as Mikhail Zvinchuk and Yuriy Podoliak of the Rykbar Telegram channel, disagreed:

“It is true that [Chief of General Staff Valery] Gerasimov is doing very well, so much so that we would like to ask him on what objective factors is this optimism based? The need to please the boss? The need to lull the pure of heart to sleep? Or is it denial based on an inability to face reality and the consequences of the situation?

The mainstream media played the same game, with Izvestiya going so far as to publish a story claiming that the Ukrainian army had been driven out of Sudzha. While they do not hold the whole town, there is a pocket of resistance just to the east, where Russian troops are clashing. Podoliak said:

“I would like to draw the attention of our television crews to the fact that there is no need to deceive people and make Izvestiya’s report of the 6th of the month look like it was filmed on the 7th. Why is this important? Yes, it misleads Muscovites and the whole country, but it also does not allow people on the ground to get their bearings and make the right decisions, including the decision to evacuate. And then people die because of these lies.

In times of war, when you don’t have all the facts in your favour, it’s particularly dangerous to create a completely virtual world; the ruling elite can lose the trust of a population that doesn’t understand what’s really going on, but knows very well that something dangerous is going on.

Functional problems in the army far from solved

The new defence minister, Andrei Belousov, is highly respected, but he is not a soldier, and cases of corruption are on the rise. So much so that they sometimes raise the question of internal reckoning, as in the case of General Ivan Popov, who stopped the Ukrainian army’s advance in Zoporoye in 2023 and is now under house arrest. Some ask why Popov is not in Kursk at the moment. These questions show how difficult it will be for the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff to reform themselves through corruption cases alone. And there are many other questions. At least for an army at war: who is responsible for military strategy? And who is responsible for the Kursk Oblast?

Obviously, the process of legionisation of the army in wartime is reaching its limits. We are faced with paid contract soldiers, career officers with a different pay scale, and mobilised soldiers with a different status, and they are all fighting. Moreover, the conscripts remain outside the war zones… And this is an ideological problem.

And all this creates time bombs in society. Perhaps, in order to win the war, it is necessary to put an end to the logic of “special operation”.

Moscow, which has still not changed its position, is calling on the proverbial “international community” to condemn the “terror” in Kursk unequivocally, and to do so at the UN. At the same meeting where the ambush of the Wagnerians in Mali was discussed, a few words were said about Kursk, as if they were events of the same nature.

Moreover, the Russian press assures us that the IAEA is aware of the situation at the Kursk plant. A state of emergency has been declared in the Kursk Oblast, where the population is under attack, its territory occupied and facing a pogrom. Just as in the case of major fires or floods. In this context, however, a state of war should not have been declared in the region, which did not happen.

In other words, Moscow is still within the framework of “special military operation”. On the other hand, Russia is losing time and power in a war that it still does not officially recognise as a war. If it adopts an international discourse centred on negotiations, it will get in return the bombing of Sevastopol and the attacks on Kursk.

Meanwhile, the discourse of the creation of a Kursk People’s Republic “waiting to be liberated” and annexed to Ukraine is on the rise. This does not mean that this fantasy will be realised, but the intention is clear.Russia must take back the territories it currently occupies, otherwise it will be forced to negotiate its surrender, which will inevitably drag the current ruling elite into the depths of history.

Unlike Kharkiv in 2022, there can be no “strategic retreat” because the border has been crossed. In the event of a retreat, it will be impossible not to raise the question of treason, and the Putin umbrella will hardly protect these “great strategists” from popular vengeance. The ruling elite seems to be taking precautions, and there are two reactions.

Dmitry Medvedev wrote the following:

“From now on, special military operations must have a clear extraterritorial character. It is no longer just an operation to regain our official territory and punish the Nazis. We can and must go into the territory of Ukraine that still exists. To Odessa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolayiv, Kyiv and beyond. There should be no restrictions in terms of the recognised borders of the Ukrainian Empire. Now we can and must talk about this openly, without shame or diplomatic fawning.”

Medvedev is right, but to do so it is necessary to review the situation and envisage victory. This requires a change in the ideological framework and political courage. So far there is no sign of either.

Russia

Drone strike ignites St. Petersburg oil terminal as major economic forum opens

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Drone strikes targeted Russia’s Leningrad region overnight, sparking a fire at a strategically vital oil terminal in St. Petersburg on the opening day of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. The attacks, which struck multiple regions across Russia, prompted widespread airspace restrictions and targeted military-industrial facilities.

Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of the Leningrad region, announced that Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) carried out an attack on the region during the night of June 3.

According to information provided by the governor, a total of 50 drones were shot down during the aerial assault, which began around 02:00 and continued until 07:00. Governor Drozdenko did not share detailed information regarding any damage or casualties resulting from the attack.

Local media outlet Bumaga reported that the sounds of explosions were heard in the Admiralteysky, Vasileostrovsky, Primorsky, and Krasnoselsky districts of St. Petersburg.

In the Kirovsky district, the attack resulted in a fire at the Petersburg Oil Terminal, one of Russia’s largest oil transshipment facilities on the Baltic Sea.

With an annual transit capacity of 12.5 million metric tons of fuel and housing 21 reservoirs used for storing petroleum products, this enterprise holds strategic importance for ensuring Russia’s security.

The drone attack on the oil terminal occurred on the opening day of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), scheduled to take place from June 3 to 6, where Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to deliver a speech.

The Expoforum exhibition center, where the forum is being held, is reportedly located approximately 17 kilometers from the targeted oil terminal. Due to drone activity and the threat of aerial attacks, more than 29 flights experienced delays at Pulkovo Airport.

On the same night, the city of Michurinsk in the Tambov region, located in the interior of Russia, was also targeted by aerial attacks. Region Governor Yevgeny Pervyshov stated in a declaration on the matter: “As a result of the crash of UAVs belonging to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, an apartment building, a library, and an art school were damaged, with their windows shattered, and the outbuildings of an industrial enterprise were also damaged. There are no casualties or injuries.”

According to an investigation by the Astra news portal, the primary target of the drones in the area was the Progress factory, which manufactures control systems for aviation and missile technologies.

The military-industrial facility in question had previously been subjected to drone attacks in February of this year, as well as in June 2025 and December 2024.

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced in a statement that a total of 354 drones were shot down over Russian territory throughout the night.

It was reported that air defense systems intercepted or shot down drones across a total of 16 administrative regions, including the Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kaluga, Kursk, Leningrad, Novgorod, Oryol, Rostov, Tula, and Moscow regions.

Due to the threat of aerial attacks, the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) imposed temporary restrictions on the operations of Moscow’s Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports, as well as airports in the cities of Kaluga, Saratov, Nizhny Novgorod, Yaroslavl, and Pskov, starting from the evening of June 2.

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Russia moves to privatize major oil port operator amid widening budget deficit

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Russia is preparing to privatize the state’s stake in Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port (NMTP), one of the country’s largest port operators, as the government seeks to finance a widening federal budget deficit. Russia’s federal budget shortfall reached nearly 6 trillion rubles in the January-April period.

After Rosimushchestvo on Friday announced plans to sell the state’s stake in Aeroflot, a 20% government holding in NMTP was also added to the privatization program. According to Interfax, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed the relevant decree on May 23.

The entire state stake in the holding company is expected to be offered for sale during the 2026-2028 period. NMTP includes two major oil ports that together handle roughly half of Russia’s oil exports.

One of them is the Novorossiysk port on the Black Sea, with a capacity of around 500,000 barrels per day. The other is the Primorsk port on the Baltic Sea coast, with a capacity of approximately 1 million barrels per day.

The holding also includes the Baltiysk port in the Kaliningrad region. Last year, the company generated revenue of 76.5 billion rubles and net profit of 40.6 billion rubles.

State-owned pipeline operator Transneft is NMTP’s largest shareholder, holding a 60% stake.

Transneft acquired the shares in 2018 after the previous shareholder, billionaire Ziyavudin Magomedov, was arrested on charges of creating an organized criminal group.

Magomedov was later sentenced to 19 years in prison in the same case. Around 20% of NMTP is held by private investors, including stock market participants.

According to Reuters estimates, the state could raise around 33 billion rubles from the sale of its NMTP stake. That would be slightly below the estimated 45 billion ruble valuation of the Aeroflot stake slated for privatization.

Potential buyers for the 20% state stake have not yet been identified, and no official information has been released. However, Freedom Finance Global analyst Natalya Milchakova said major investors could show interest in the asset.

“The asset could attract the attention of state-linked organizations ranging from commodity and transport-logistics companies to major financial institutions. Players with more limited financial resources would neither be able to acquire the NMTP shares in question nor become strategic investors in this sector,” Milchakova said.

Revenue generated from the privatization will be transferred to the federal budget. The Russian government drafted this year’s budget with a projected deficit of 3.8 trillion rubles.

However, by the end of April, the actual budget deficit had exceeded the annual target by more than 1.5 times.

Economist Dmitry Polevoy previously said the budget could lose between 300 billion and 700 billion rubles in revenue this year because of lower economic growth forecasts.

According to Polevoy’s calculations, undercollection of non-oil budget revenues could rise to between 1.3 trillion and 1.8 trillion rubles next year.

Polevoy said that unless current conditions change, the government would be forced either to cut spending or seek additional revenue sources of a similar scale.

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Iran and Russia reaffirm strategic alliance following high-level talks in St. Petersburg

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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, following high-level meetings in Moscow and St. Petersburg, stated that recent regional developments have once again demonstrated the depth and strength of the strategic partnership between Iran and Russia.

The Iranian minister met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in St. Petersburg on Monday.

During the meeting, Putin described the Iranian people’s struggle to preserve their sovereignty as “brave and heroic.” Putin further expressed his hope for the restoration of peace and stated that Russia would take the necessary steps to protect the interests of both Iran and regional states while contributing to the establishment of stability in the area.

Araghchi noted that Tehran appreciates the support provided by the Moscow administration during the period of US and Israeli attacks against Iran.

Emphasizing that relations between Iran and Russia will continue to strengthen on the basis of a strategic partnership, Araghchi criticized the silence of certain countries in the face of violations and pressure exerted by the US. He warned that this application of double standards would negatively impact the entire international community.

Addressing mediation efforts led by Pakistan, Araghchi said that the Washington administration’s unreasonable demands, shifting positions, use of threatening language, and frequent violations of its commitments remain the primary obstacles to diplomatic processes.

In an additional statement shared via his social media accounts, Araghchi expressed satisfaction with the “highest-level” talks held in Russia at a time when West Asia is undergoing a transformation driven by the policies of Israel and its Western supporters. Araghchi reiterated his gratification regarding Russia’s solidarity and its support for diplomacy, noting that bilateral relations will continue to evolve.

Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov also stated that mutual support between Moscow and Tehran would continue in the face of the aggressive stance displayed by the US toward Iran.

According to the TASS news agency, Belousov met with Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Reza Talai-Nik in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, where he emphasized that Russia would maintain its support for Iran regardless of evolving conditions. Belousov noted that Russia supports Iranian sovereignty and territorial integrity, adding that Moscow favors a resolution of the crisis through diplomatic channels exclusively and is prepared to do everything within its power to facilitate such a solution.

Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Reza Talai-Nik expressed satisfaction with Moscow’s support for Tehran in international forums and its commitment to enhancing defense cooperation.

These meetings took place against a backdrop of a continuing US blockade of Iranian ports and vessels. The Tehran administration characterizes this blockade as part of US aggression and a violation of ceasefire conditions.

The Iranian side has announced that it will not enter into a new negotiation process with Washington unless the current blockade is lifted. According to leaked information, Tehran is proposing a three-stage plan for potential talks with the US.

In the first stage of this formula, Iran demands an end to the war and guarantees that attacks against Iran and Lebanon will not be repeated. The second stage envisions the management of the Strait of Hormuz being handled in coordination with Oman, while the nuclear file is intended to be brought to the agenda only after these two stages have been completed.

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