Russia
The Kursk battles and the crisis of Russian military strategy
While everyone was waiting for Iran to attack Israel, Ukraine opened a new front in the Kursk Oblast bordering Russia. On the morning of 6 August, the Ukrainian army advanced to a depth of 10 to 15 kilometres in the Kursk region, capturing some settlements and carrying out intensive shelling of civilian targets.
At the same time, there were rumours that the Ukrainian army was planning to seize the Kursk nuclear power plant and the Sudja gas station.
At the beginning of the offensive, at 8am, according to the Russian Defence Ministry, about 300 Ukrainian troops, 11 tanks and more than 20 armoured vehicles moved to the border of the Kursk region. The Russian army and border guards (Rosgvardia) initially managed to repel the attack, destroying some tanks and armoured vehicles.
However, the fighting continued and intensified throughout the day, with air defence systems deployed near the border hampering the Russian air force, which went on the offensive, resulting in the capture of three Russian villages by Ukrainian troops.
Immediately after the attack, Russian President Vladimir Putin convened a meeting of the Security Council at 13:00. As at every sensitive moment, the Russian authorities used the rhetoric of an act of terrorism, aimed at minimising the psychological impact on the population, but which for a long time bordered on denial.
Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova was no exception, setting out the official position: “We are talking about a new act of terrorism. It is clearly directed against the civilian population.
When you have hundreds of soldiers, armoured vehicles and tanks, air defence systems and thousands of foreign mercenaries on standby, it is not just an act of “terror”, it is an act of war. More specifically, it is the opening of a new front in this war. Perhaps it will fail, but for now they are holding the villages of Kursk.
The fact that Kyiv is targeting an energy and trade route is another matter.
Until now, natural gas from Russia has been transported to the European Union via two gas metering stations: Sokhranovka and Sudzha. In 2022, Naftogaz, Ukraine’s state-owned gas company, refused to supply gas to Europe via Sokhranovka because it is located in the Lugansk People’s Republic. The only remaining route is Sudzha, which is currently under attack. So the aim seems to be to take control of the Sudja station and then destroy it.
It is possible to see another purpose in the current configuration: Kharkiv against Kursk. Kyiv wants to force Moscow to withdraw its troops from Kharkiv in order to regain the territory it has lost in the Kursk Oblast. Although Russia retains the initiative on the front line, it would be the loser in such a situation.
Current situation on the ground
Kommersant quoted Health Minister Mikhail Murashko as saying that 69 victims of the 11 August shelling in Kursk oblast had been hospitalised, 17 of them in serious condition. Of the 29 outpatients, 8 have been discharged.
A rocket attack on Kursk early on Sunday destroyed a nine-storey building and injured 13 people, two of them seriously.
According to local officials, the situation in the border regions remains tense following the attack by Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance troops. However, there are currently no active clashes in the Belyovsky and Oboyansky regions.
Source: Kommersant
The Russian Defence Ministry reported that 14 drones and four Tochka-U tactical missiles were intercepted over Kursk on the night of 11 August.
Meanwhile, Alexei Lihachev, head of the federal nuclear corporation Rosatom, discussed the threat to the Kursk nuclear power plant with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) President Rafael Grossi, stressing the global risks posed by the situation.
Evacuations continue in the region, with more than 76,000 people displaced and more than 4,400 in temporary shelters.
Official discourse and loss of trust
From the beginning, the Russian Ministry of Defence kept the information it released to a minimum. First it said that an attack had been launched by 300 troops, then that it was a thousand and that they had been repulsed. But on the evening of the second day, as Ukrainian troops continued to advance, the evening news showed unrealistic scenes with officials making statements that were far from reality. In fact, at least five brigades of between 7,000 and 17,000 troops had entered Russian territory.
But Kursk residents who witnessed the situation with their own eyes, and war correspondents such as Mikhail Zvinchuk and Yuriy Podoliak of the Rykbar Telegram channel, disagreed:
“It is true that [Chief of General Staff Valery] Gerasimov is doing very well, so much so that we would like to ask him on what objective factors is this optimism based? The need to please the boss? The need to lull the pure of heart to sleep? Or is it denial based on an inability to face reality and the consequences of the situation?
The mainstream media played the same game, with Izvestiya going so far as to publish a story claiming that the Ukrainian army had been driven out of Sudzha. While they do not hold the whole town, there is a pocket of resistance just to the east, where Russian troops are clashing. Podoliak said:
“I would like to draw the attention of our television crews to the fact that there is no need to deceive people and make Izvestiya’s report of the 6th of the month look like it was filmed on the 7th. Why is this important? Yes, it misleads Muscovites and the whole country, but it also does not allow people on the ground to get their bearings and make the right decisions, including the decision to evacuate. And then people die because of these lies.
In times of war, when you don’t have all the facts in your favour, it’s particularly dangerous to create a completely virtual world; the ruling elite can lose the trust of a population that doesn’t understand what’s really going on, but knows very well that something dangerous is going on.
Functional problems in the army far from solved
The new defence minister, Andrei Belousov, is highly respected, but he is not a soldier, and cases of corruption are on the rise. So much so that they sometimes raise the question of internal reckoning, as in the case of General Ivan Popov, who stopped the Ukrainian army’s advance in Zoporoye in 2023 and is now under house arrest. Some ask why Popov is not in Kursk at the moment. These questions show how difficult it will be for the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff to reform themselves through corruption cases alone. And there are many other questions. At least for an army at war: who is responsible for military strategy? And who is responsible for the Kursk Oblast?
Obviously, the process of legionisation of the army in wartime is reaching its limits. We are faced with paid contract soldiers, career officers with a different pay scale, and mobilised soldiers with a different status, and they are all fighting. Moreover, the conscripts remain outside the war zones… And this is an ideological problem.
And all this creates time bombs in society. Perhaps, in order to win the war, it is necessary to put an end to the logic of “special operation”.
Moscow, which has still not changed its position, is calling on the proverbial “international community” to condemn the “terror” in Kursk unequivocally, and to do so at the UN. At the same meeting where the ambush of the Wagnerians in Mali was discussed, a few words were said about Kursk, as if they were events of the same nature.
Moreover, the Russian press assures us that the IAEA is aware of the situation at the Kursk plant. A state of emergency has been declared in the Kursk Oblast, where the population is under attack, its territory occupied and facing a pogrom. Just as in the case of major fires or floods. In this context, however, a state of war should not have been declared in the region, which did not happen.
In other words, Moscow is still within the framework of “special military operation”. On the other hand, Russia is losing time and power in a war that it still does not officially recognise as a war. If it adopts an international discourse centred on negotiations, it will get in return the bombing of Sevastopol and the attacks on Kursk.
Meanwhile, the discourse of the creation of a Kursk People’s Republic “waiting to be liberated” and annexed to Ukraine is on the rise. This does not mean that this fantasy will be realised, but the intention is clear.Russia must take back the territories it currently occupies, otherwise it will be forced to negotiate its surrender, which will inevitably drag the current ruling elite into the depths of history.
Unlike Kharkiv in 2022, there can be no “strategic retreat” because the border has been crossed. In the event of a retreat, it will be impossible not to raise the question of treason, and the Putin umbrella will hardly protect these “great strategists” from popular vengeance. The ruling elite seems to be taking precautions, and there are two reactions.
Dmitry Medvedev wrote the following:
“From now on, special military operations must have a clear extraterritorial character. It is no longer just an operation to regain our official territory and punish the Nazis. We can and must go into the territory of Ukraine that still exists. To Odessa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolayiv, Kyiv and beyond. There should be no restrictions in terms of the recognised borders of the Ukrainian Empire. Now we can and must talk about this openly, without shame or diplomatic fawning.”
Medvedev is right, but to do so it is necessary to review the situation and envisage victory. This requires a change in the ideological framework and political courage. So far there is no sign of either.
Russia has announced that it will ship 500,000 tonnes of diesel fuel to the global market under a partial lifting of its diesel export ban, enacted as part of measures concerning the Ukraine crisis and energy markets.
A statement from the Russian government said the decision was implemented in accordance with understandings reached between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.
Under the decision, which came into effect on 10 October, an initial phase of 500,000 tonnes of diesel fuel will be supplied to the global market.
“Following the rescinded decision, Russian oil companies, in coordination with the government, will immediately begin signing diesel fuel supply contracts with foreign business partners,” the government statement said.
Assessing the matter, Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak stressed that the decision would not affect the interests of Russian consumers.
Noting that diesel fuel is produced from Russian crude at domestic refineries, Novak stated that production volumes are sufficient both to meet all domestic market requirements in full and to ship the specified quantities to the global market.
The ban on diesel fuel exports in Russia was initially put into effect on 31 January 2026, covering only non-producing companies.
The government tightened the restrictions on 9 July by expanding them to include direct producers. Previously announced to remain in place until the end of October, the ban was partially relaxed in light of current developments.
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump held a telephone conversation on 9 October. Following the call, US President Trump announced that an agreement had been reached on the supply of Russian diesel.
Trump said Russia had agreed to send more than 300,000 tonnes of fuel to American and global markets in the initial phase, 500,000 tonnes in November, and 1 million tonnes thereafter.
Trump also stated that an additional shipment of 3 million tonnes could follow at a later stage, adding that they expect this agreement to reduce diesel fuel prices rapidly.
Following the conversation, the US Department of the Treasury, on Trump’s instructions, issued a temporary general licence exempting Russian diesel fuel transactions and shipments to the US—previously prohibited under sanctions—until 7 April 2027.
Putin, in a statement after the call, confirmed Russia’s readiness to supply crude oil and petroleum products to American and global markets, noting that this would have a positive impact on the world economy.
Putin also noted that the two leaders discussed prospects for resolving the conflict in Ukraine, the situation surrounding Iran, and bilateral relations, agreeing to maintain contacts through presidential envoys, intelligence agencies, and other institutions.
A statement issued by Novak’s office after the call said Russia was prepared to ship diesel to the US within October.
Novak stated that export volumes could be increased in November and December as refineries emerge from scheduled maintenance.
Novak also conveyed that Moscow views positively Washington’s steps towards stabilising the global energy market and normalising energy trade.
A drone strike has hit a data centre belonging to Russian internet company Yandex in the town of Sasovo, located in the Ryazan region.
The company announced that a fire triggered by the attack damaged part of the infrastructure and resulted in a complete shutdown of the facility’s operations. No casualties or injuries were reported in the incident.
In a statement, Yandex said competent authorities and relevant teams were working at the scene to remediate the damage.
Owing to the facility being knocked offline, it was noted that some of the company’s online services might temporarily become inaccessible to users.
The company provided no details regarding the financial scale of the damage or when the data centre would be brought back into service.
Shares slide, cloud infrastructure curbs introduced
Following the developments, Yandex shares fell by more than 3.4% as of 10:10 Türkiye time.
A drone threat alert was reportedly communicated to residents of the Ryazan region at 23:48 on the night of 7 October, with the alarm lifted at 02:46 on the morning of 8 October. The facility in Sasovo had commenced operations in 2014.
In an advisory issued via the Yandex Cloud Alerts channel, it was reported that power issues were occurring in the system’s “ru-central1-b” availability zone.
The company stated that efforts to transfer data workloads to other availability zones had been completed and that services in other zones continued to operate normally.
However, it was noted that temporary restrictions could be imposed on the creation of new resources within the cloud infrastructure. According to data from outage-monitoring platform Downdetector, an increase in user complaints concerning Yandex, Yandex Cloud, and the real estate platform CIAN was recorded on the morning of 8 October. Reports were observed to have originated predominantly from Moscow and surrounding regions.
Data centre targeted for first time after logistics warehouses
Whether the attack directly targeted the data centre remains unconfirmed. Nevertheless, as of 8 October, this went on record as the first drone strike directed at data centres in Russia.
Beginning in the summer months of 2026, warehouses belonging to Russia’s leading e-commerce platforms had faced drone attacks.
Fires at several warehouses owned by the company Wildberries caused hundreds of billions of roubles in losses for sellers, after which logistics centres belonging to the company Ozon were also targeted.
Both companies amended their contractual terms, shifting liability for damages arising from attacks onto sellers.
Yandex facilities had previously experienced a widespread outage on 30 March 2025 due to a transformer failure, which temporarily disabled services including Yandex Cloud, Yandex Music, and Yandex Lavka.
Senior officials from Russia and the US have reportedly discussed involving an American investor in the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines.
According to a report by the Reuters news agency based on five sources, those taking part in contacts included Kirill Dmitriyev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and the Russian president’s special representative for investment and economic cooperation with foreign states, and Jared Kushner, son-in-law of the US leader.
Two sources providing information on the scope of the discussions said that while it remains unclear how detailed the consideration of the Nord Stream topic was, the matter nevertheless remains on the agenda.
Kushner reportedly views business-oriented cooperation as an instrument in initiatives aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
A potential agreement could reportedly offer US investors an opportunity to profit from energy shipments to Europe once the war ends.
White House states no recent contacts have taken place
A White House official told Reuters that no negotiations regarding Nord Stream have been conducted recently.
The official emphasised that any agreement with Russia would require approval from the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the US Department of the Treasury, adding that such steps must yield benefits for US taxpayers and companies.
Another US official described reaching an understanding in the medium term as unlikely due to existing obstacles.
The natural gas pipelines are subject to US and European Union sanctions. A spokesperson for the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy stated that the approval of the German federal government is mandatory for the pipelines to be brought back into service, adding that the Berlin administration does not support such a step.
The spokesperson also recalled that Germany has secured alternative supplies to Russian gas.
The ownership structure of Nord Stream also features among the issues complicating the ground for negotiations.
In the consortium operating the project, Russian energy giant Gazprom holds a 51% stake, while the combined share of two German partners stands at 31%.
The remaining shares are held by France- and Netherlands-based companies.
A source speaking to the agency stated that the German partners wish to retain their stakes in order to preserve their influence in the project should Gazprom’s shares be sold.
What had American investor Lynch proposed?
The concept of involving a US financier in the Nord Stream projects had also surfaced in 2024.
American investor Stephen Lynch, founder of Monte Valle Partners, who conducted commercial activities in Russia for 20 years, had applied to the US administration for a licence allowing him to bid if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline were put up for auction.
Lynch described this potential move as an opportunity to keep Europe’s energy supply under control until the fossil-fuel era ends, as well as leverage against Russia in peace negotiations.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party described the possibility of transferring the pipeline to Lynch as an illustration of the German government’s irrational policy.
Separately, The New York Times (NYT) reported earlier this month that Ukraine-related contacts between Russia and the US were expanding to include a multi-billion-dollar oil deal covering Lukoil’s foreign assets.
The assets in question included Lukoil’s refineries in Eastern Europe as well as filling stations in the US.
NYT sources reported that discussions in this framework were also addressed during a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Steven Witkoff, and Kushner.
The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines took place in September 2022, with three of the four lines damaged by explosions.
One string of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which had not yet been commissioned at the time, remained intact.
The Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSB) classified the incident as an act of international terrorism, while Putin claimed that “Anglo-Saxons” were behind the attack.
In investigations into the incident, judicial proceedings were pursued against several Ukrainian citizens, including professional diver Vladimir Juravlyov, suspected of planting explosives off the island of Bornholm, and Sergey Kuznetsov, who allegedly skippered the yacht Andromeda.
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