Diplomacy
The NATO summit begins in Washington: Ukraine and Trump top agenda
The leaders of 32 NATO member states gather in Washington today (Tuesday 9 July) for a three-day summit.
NATO’s alliance against the Soviet Union and communism was launched in Washington exactly 75 years ago, on 4 April 1949, with the agreement of 12 countries. A commemorative programme to mark the 75th anniversary is expected to take place on 9 July, the first day of the summit.
The war in Ukraine, a possible Donald Trump presidency and fissures within the alliance will dominate the summit agenda.
40 billion aid package for Kyiv
NATO leaders are expected to pledge €40 billion in one-year aid to Ukraine this week, as key alliance members face domestic political turmoil that limits their ability to commit longer-term resources to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said ahead of the summit: “Of course in democracies we can never give guarantees. We do not live in that world. But we live in a world where good outcomes are maximised and bad outcomes are minimised,” he said.
Stoltenberg added that the €40 billion pledged for Ukraine next year is an improvement on the current situation, where individual contributions are not always transparent or calculated according to the same criteria.
However, the new plan is less ambitious than NATO’s original proposal for a $100 billion multi-year assistance package.
“You can argue about whether the glass is half full, but the glass is more than half full,” Stoltenberg told reporters.
Nato will not issue a formal invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance, the outcome Zelensky’s government most wants. But a senior Biden administration official told the Financial Times that the allies would make “significant” statements of support for Ukraine, including “new steps” to strengthen its air defences.
US President Joe Biden will also host an event on Thursday with Zelensky and nearly two dozen allies who have signed bilateral security agreements with Kyiv.
US election tensions
In the US, the Alliance’s engine room, discussions on Trump’s approach to NATO and Biden’s candidacy are on the agenda ahead of the November elections.
Biden is hosting the summit amid growing calls for him to suspend his re-election campaign to allow another Democrat to take on Donald Trump in November.
Trump, who leads Biden in most national and swing state polls, has threatened to withdraw from NATO if elected to another four-year term. The former president has also repeatedly promised to end military support for Ukraine.
According to interviews with former Trump national security officials and defence experts who are likely to serve in a second Trump term, Trump is unlikely to leave NATO altogether.
According to an analysis published in Politico, in exchange for continued US participation, Trump will not only expect European countries to substantially increase their spending on NATO, but will also undertake what has been described as a “radical reorientation” of the organisation.
Call for members to increase defence spending
Another area of concern is the need to increase defence budgets across NATO to ensure that all countries meet the 2 per cent of GDP spending target, while maintaining support for Kyiv.
This will be a key priority for Mark Rutte, who takes over from Stoltenberg on 1 October.
Alliance diplomats warn that this will be complicated by taxpayers’ resistance to increased defence budgets.
Managing internal tensions: Orban a cause for concern
Another challenge is managing divisions within the alliance, as illustrated by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s controversial trip to Moscow last week to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Orban, one of NATO’s most prominent sceptics of supporting Kyiv, vetoed Rutte’s appointment last month, exempting him from NATO activities in support of Ukraine.
A Biden administration official told the FT that the US was “concerned” about Orban’s trip, which “will not advance the cause of peace or support Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence”.
“Concerns always arise and we always prove that we are resilient,” Stoltenberg said, adding that NATO had always managed to resolve internal divisions since its creation in 1949.
Berlin and Washington’s objections to the joint statement
In the final negotiations of the summit declaration, the US and Germany led efforts to oppose the inclusion of a reference to Ukraine’s path to NATO membership being “irreversible”, as demanded by many other allies, especially in Eastern Europe.
US and German scepticism about Ukraine’s membership has not yet been overcome.
Officials say that Kyiv needs to undertake major structural reforms and that formal progress on membership is unlikely until the war is over.
A senior US State Department official told the FT: “Every time we have contact with the Ukrainians […] we have been clear about the limitations, the need for reform and the fact that part of their territory is occupied”.
Instead, NATO will offer Ukraine a package of support that includes control of much of the coordination of military aid to Kyiv, a role previously played by the US, and leadership of several national programmes to train Ukrainian troops in Poland.
The operation will not be officially labelled a “NATO mission” after Berlin, wary of anything implying that NATO is a direct participant in the conflict, refused to endorse such terminology as too militaristic.
Tougher language on China expected
Meanwhile, Nato allies are expected to agree on tougher language than before on China to condemn Beijing for its economic support for Moscow in the war in Ukraine.
China’s support includes increased supplies of technology such as microchips and chemicals intended for civilian use but used to make Russian weapons.
According to senior White House sources quoted by Hurriyet, the NATO summit will not only bring Ukraine closer to NATO and build a “bridge” to eventual membership, but will also send a message to China in the Pacific.
Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand will also attend the summit, which the senior official said would “send an important message to the world through our partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region”.
Diplomacy
Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour
Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.
As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.
The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.
Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.
In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.
Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”
US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”
On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.
According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.
Diplomacy
Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.
According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.
Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.
The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.
Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.
He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.
The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.
On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.
In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.
In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.
The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.
Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.
In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.
“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”
Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.
He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.
Washington pledges to maintain defence support
Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.
“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.
Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.
“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.
Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks
In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.
He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.
Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”
Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.
The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.
In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.
The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.
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