Diplomacy
The NATO summit begins in Washington: Ukraine and Trump top agenda
The leaders of 32 NATO member states gather in Washington today (Tuesday 9 July) for a three-day summit.
NATO’s alliance against the Soviet Union and communism was launched in Washington exactly 75 years ago, on 4 April 1949, with the agreement of 12 countries. A commemorative programme to mark the 75th anniversary is expected to take place on 9 July, the first day of the summit.
The war in Ukraine, a possible Donald Trump presidency and fissures within the alliance will dominate the summit agenda.
40 billion aid package for Kyiv
NATO leaders are expected to pledge €40 billion in one-year aid to Ukraine this week, as key alliance members face domestic political turmoil that limits their ability to commit longer-term resources to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said ahead of the summit: “Of course in democracies we can never give guarantees. We do not live in that world. But we live in a world where good outcomes are maximised and bad outcomes are minimised,” he said.
Stoltenberg added that the €40 billion pledged for Ukraine next year is an improvement on the current situation, where individual contributions are not always transparent or calculated according to the same criteria.
However, the new plan is less ambitious than NATO’s original proposal for a $100 billion multi-year assistance package.
“You can argue about whether the glass is half full, but the glass is more than half full,” Stoltenberg told reporters.
Nato will not issue a formal invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance, the outcome Zelensky’s government most wants. But a senior Biden administration official told the Financial Times that the allies would make “significant” statements of support for Ukraine, including “new steps” to strengthen its air defences.
US President Joe Biden will also host an event on Thursday with Zelensky and nearly two dozen allies who have signed bilateral security agreements with Kyiv.
US election tensions
In the US, the Alliance’s engine room, discussions on Trump’s approach to NATO and Biden’s candidacy are on the agenda ahead of the November elections.
Biden is hosting the summit amid growing calls for him to suspend his re-election campaign to allow another Democrat to take on Donald Trump in November.
Trump, who leads Biden in most national and swing state polls, has threatened to withdraw from NATO if elected to another four-year term. The former president has also repeatedly promised to end military support for Ukraine.
According to interviews with former Trump national security officials and defence experts who are likely to serve in a second Trump term, Trump is unlikely to leave NATO altogether.
According to an analysis published in Politico, in exchange for continued US participation, Trump will not only expect European countries to substantially increase their spending on NATO, but will also undertake what has been described as a “radical reorientation” of the organisation.
Call for members to increase defence spending
Another area of concern is the need to increase defence budgets across NATO to ensure that all countries meet the 2 per cent of GDP spending target, while maintaining support for Kyiv.
This will be a key priority for Mark Rutte, who takes over from Stoltenberg on 1 October.
Alliance diplomats warn that this will be complicated by taxpayers’ resistance to increased defence budgets.
Managing internal tensions: Orban a cause for concern
Another challenge is managing divisions within the alliance, as illustrated by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s controversial trip to Moscow last week to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Orban, one of NATO’s most prominent sceptics of supporting Kyiv, vetoed Rutte’s appointment last month, exempting him from NATO activities in support of Ukraine.
A Biden administration official told the FT that the US was “concerned” about Orban’s trip, which “will not advance the cause of peace or support Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence”.
“Concerns always arise and we always prove that we are resilient,” Stoltenberg said, adding that NATO had always managed to resolve internal divisions since its creation in 1949.
Berlin and Washington’s objections to the joint statement
In the final negotiations of the summit declaration, the US and Germany led efforts to oppose the inclusion of a reference to Ukraine’s path to NATO membership being “irreversible”, as demanded by many other allies, especially in Eastern Europe.
US and German scepticism about Ukraine’s membership has not yet been overcome.
Officials say that Kyiv needs to undertake major structural reforms and that formal progress on membership is unlikely until the war is over.
A senior US State Department official told the FT: “Every time we have contact with the Ukrainians […] we have been clear about the limitations, the need for reform and the fact that part of their territory is occupied”.
Instead, NATO will offer Ukraine a package of support that includes control of much of the coordination of military aid to Kyiv, a role previously played by the US, and leadership of several national programmes to train Ukrainian troops in Poland.
The operation will not be officially labelled a “NATO mission” after Berlin, wary of anything implying that NATO is a direct participant in the conflict, refused to endorse such terminology as too militaristic.
Tougher language on China expected
Meanwhile, Nato allies are expected to agree on tougher language than before on China to condemn Beijing for its economic support for Moscow in the war in Ukraine.
China’s support includes increased supplies of technology such as microchips and chemicals intended for civilian use but used to make Russian weapons.
According to senior White House sources quoted by Hurriyet, the NATO summit will not only bring Ukraine closer to NATO and build a “bridge” to eventual membership, but will also send a message to China in the Pacific.
Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand will also attend the summit, which the senior official said would “send an important message to the world through our partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region”.
Diplomacy
CSTO strips Armenia of voting rights over two-year budget debt
Members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have stripped Armenia of its voting rights and its ability to appoint representatives to official positions due to a two-year debt to the organization’s budget.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “This decision was taken based on the organization’s charter due to Armenia’s failure to fulfil its obligations for several years.”
Prior to the CSTO leaders’ summit in Moscow, Peskov had stated that member states would “react” to the Caucasus country’s non-participation in the organization’s activities.
Ahead of the Moscow summit, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said his country’s “interest has run out” regarding the CSTO. Through his press spokesperson, he announced that he would travel to Türkiye on 11 November to attend the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) instead of going to Russia.
The CSTO leaders’ meeting was held with the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin alongside the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
The leaders jointly took the decision to revoke Armenia’s voting rights.
At the conclusion of the meeting, the participants also signed a joint declaration.
The declaration stated: “We confirm our unconditional commitment to the goals set out in the CSTO treaty and charter towards creating favourable and stable conditions for the comprehensive development of member states.”
Pashinyan had frozen Yerevan’s de facto participation in the CSTO in February 2024, citing the organization’s failure to aid the Armenian side during the armed clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.
Having referred to the CSTO as a “soap-bubble alliance” since that time, Pashinyan accused the organization’s members of “planning war” together with Baku. He stated that Armenia would not return to active work within the alliance at least “over the next five years”, adding that he would welcome it if the country were expelled from membership.
Relations between Armenia and Russia grew tense once again in the spring of 2026, after Yerevan moved closer to the European Union (EU) and the Kremlin responded with a trade war.
In May, Pashinyan refused to travel to Moscow to attend the Victory Day parade and declared that he did not support Russia on the Ukraine issue.
In response, Putin called on Yerevan to determine its foreign policy course through a referendum, advising Armenian authorities not to forget the fate of Ukraine.
Diplomacy
US urges Russia to draft proposals for new European security pact
The US administration has reportedly called on Russia to submit proposals for a prospective security treaty with Europe that would include measures to ease tensions between European nations and Moscow.
According to a report by news site Axios citing sources familiar with the matter, the US side conveyed the request during trilateral negotiations held in Abu Dhabi.
During the talks, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner suggested that the Russian delegation prepare a fresh proposal outlining its security concerns and demands.
The US delegation reportedly asked that this proposal clarify what kind of “symmetrical steps” Moscow is prepared to take to de-escalate tensions and “provide non-aggression guarantees to Europe”.
Another source familiar with the White House’s approach said the Trump administration aims to run the processes for a new European security architecture and a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine simultaneously.
Under this plan, the actual implementation of the security understandings would take effect only after the signing of an accord ending the conflict in Ukraine.
Assessing the approach to the process, the source said: “[Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy will not agree to any compromise without knowing what will happen next regarding security guarantees. Putin also wants to see the exact same picture clearly. This is precisely why the security portfolio is so decisive.”
The same official noted that the US will not reach a security agreement with Russia without the support of Europe and Ukraine, adding that Washington will not grant Moscow veto power over European security decisions.
Vladimir Medinsky, aide to the Russian president and head of the delegation in the Ukraine negotiations, previously stated that the fundamental objective was building a comprehensive new security system in Europe.
Medinsky noted that the structure in question must take on the character of “a fair, new, modern Yalta and Potsdam that carries the spirit of Helsinki 1975 and responds to contemporary realities”.
The Russian official argued that if such a system were established, peace lasting for decades, or even centuries, could be secured in Europe.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also announced that Moscow possesses its own position paper on how a new security architecture in Eurasia should take shape.
Lavrov stated that Russia hopes the Washington administration will “maintain its determination to pursue dialogue aimed at achieving an honest balance of interests where nobody’s security is impaired”.
Russian authorities have repeatedly stated that the country has no intention of attacking Europe.
Pointing out that they have no reason to fight NATO countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin previously said: “We have no interest whatsoever, neither geopolitical nor economic, political nor military.”
In a statement in October, Putin said Russia has no plans to attack anyone “in 2029, in 2030, or in the year 2050”.
On the other hand, Putin claimed that “all NATO countries are fighting Russia” and stated that the Russian military is currently the most combat-ready armed force in the world.
Following the contacts in Abu Dhabi, Kushner announced that he and Witkoff would travel to Moscow.
Explaining that they plan to meet Putin during the visit to discuss European participation in negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict, Kushner argued that the parties could make “far greater progress” if the Russian leader consents to such involvement.
Yury Ushakov, aide to the Russian president, stated that the US special envoys will arrive in Moscow on 12 November, with the planned meeting with the Russian president scheduled for the first half of the day.
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
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