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MIDDLE EAST

The worse consequence of regional tensions

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Afghanistan cannot be exempted from the positive and negative consequences of current tensions in other parts of the world. The war in Eastern Europe and the Middle East has negative consequences for Afghanistan, but not for the Taliban, because they are making efforts to extend their government as much as they can by using the turbulent situation.

In Afghanistan, eyes are focused on the decision of the world, especially the great powers, to open a way to overcome the current impasse. But the countries involved in the Afghanistan conflict have forgotten this country and have defined more important missions for themselves in other parts of the world.

After the Taliban returned to power, the war in Ukraine broke out, where the world has reverted its attention from the Afghanistan crisis, and the war in Ukraine turned into the main topic and agenda of the world leaders.

In the war in Ukraine, not only Russia, but also the United States and the European Union were involved, the two major blocks, and if they want they can end the Afghan crisis.

Now that more than two years have passed since the war in Ukraine, not only is there no news of the end of the crisis, but more costs and resources are pouring in from all sides to sustain the war. Even some security experts admit that the war in Ukraine may last for years.

Before finding a way out of the Ukraine crisis, the Gaza war broke out — the war that has turned the Middle East into a “powder keg” and so far no way to overcome this situation has been found.

The regional and global actors have failed to manage the situation, or even break a deal for a short-term ceasefire to help reduce civilian casualties in Gaza.

The US is not only involved in the war in Ukraine, but also in the war in Gaza — the factor that has caused Washington to think only about the survival and security of Israel and not care about the problem of Afghanistan.

Unfortunately if Tehran and Tel Aviv enter into a cycle of extensive conflict, the war in the Middle East will take on a regional nature

Instead of ending the Gaza war, it became the cause of another war in Lebanon. What is happening in Lebanon these days is the result of the Gaza war and the most annoying is that civilians are again the target.

For the USA, not only the war in Ukraine and Gaza, but also the war in Lebanon is a big concern. Likewise, France, as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, is involved in the Lebanon war.

Iran, as a neighbor of Afghanistan and a regional power, finds itself stuck in the battle of Lebanon. The Lebanese crisis is also a concern of Saudi Arabia. The aid that Riyadh has sent to Lebanon in the last few months has not been sent to Afghanistan in the last three years.

Like the other two crises, the prospect of the end of the Lebanon war looks dark, at least in the short term. It is not unlikely that a bigger crisis will be born from it — the war between Israel and Iran.

Not long ago, Tehran launched nearly two hundred ballistic missiles towards Israel, to which Tel Aviv has not yet responded. For three weeks, the eyes of the world’s inhabitants have been focused on Israel’s possible response — an answer that is unlikely to light the fire of a full-scale war between the two sides.

Obviously, when Tehran and Tel Aviv enter into a cycle of extensive conflict, the war in the Middle East will take on a regional nature. When Gaza, Lebanon, Israel, Iran, etc. are involved in war, what is happening in the Middle East can be called a regional war. In that case, the allied militias of Iran from Yemen, Iraq, etc. will also shoot at Israel, and there will be no doubt that the war is regional.

Fortunately, war in Afghanistan has ended

In the meantime, among other crises and conflicts, the Afghanistan crisis would be forgotten. Whereas, if it were not for the above crises, the presence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, especially the rights of women to work and girls to education would be on top agenda of the world leaders.

Now, compared to other crises, the situation in Afghanistan is not described as a crisis. It is true that Afghanistan is suffering from statelessness, but according to many, the war has ended there. If terrorism is active in Afghanistan, it has not seriously and directly threatened the interests of other countries. In case if there is any threat it is nothing in the eyes of the world compared to other current crises.

Even if the economic crisis is rampant in Afghanistan, in the eyes of the world, the image of the refugees and famine victims of Gaza and Lebanon will be better than the hungry people of Afghanistan. This is the image created in the world’s mind of the Afghanistan crisis. The big regional and global actors are looking for their interests in the end of other crises than the Afghan crisis.

The big regional and global actors are looking for their interests in the end of every war

In the last few months, only organizations such as Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, etc., publish statements describing the situation in Afghanistan as dangerous and calling for the serious attention of the world.

Or the World Food Program and other humanitarian agencies write about the increase in hunger and the spread of diseases such as tuberculosis, etc. that even for that cause, there are no eyes to see and no ears to listen. The rest of the world’s effective institutions and powers involved in Afghanistan are silent and are watching what is happening in Gaza, Lebanon, and Ukraine.

Summarizing the challenges of stateless Afghanistan to seasonal diseases shows that this country has disappeared from the eyes of the world at least for now.

More importantly, ignoring the bad situation of the Afghan media indicates the lack of importance of the country’s crisis in the eyes of the world.

Recently, the media has been subjected to repression and censorship more than before. According to some sources, TVs will be blocked or turned into radios. So far, no serious voice has been raised in support of the media from Western institutions and countries against this decision of the Taliban. 

Only the “Afghanistan Journalists Support Organization” and some other organizations raise their voices, but that would bear no result.

The US presidential elections, which were a source of hope for many, cannot be hoped for too much now because if Democratic Party’s nominee, Kamala Harris wins, she will follow the footstep of Joe Biden regarding policies with Afghanistan. And if Republican Party’s candidate Donald Trump wins, assuming he intends to end the war, and will prioritize the crisis in Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, not Afghanistan under Taliban rule. In this case, it still takes a lot of time to resolve the crisis in Afghanistan.

MIDDLE EAST

Israel resumes massacre in Gaza after US green light

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After failing to impose its terms on Hamas, Israel, in violation of the ceasefire agreement, launched an intense aerial assault on Gaza. With the approval of the US, the attacks in the early morning resulted in the deaths of Gazan children in their sleep.

Israel announced the end of the ceasefire and began conducting heavy airstrikes in the Gaza Strip. Tent camps where displaced Palestinians had sought refuge were also bombed, causing fires.

In a few hours, the number of people killed in the Israeli attacks exceeded 205, and the number of injured surpassed 300. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, 113 of the victims were killed in the southern part of the region. Many families were completely wiped out, and children were killed in their sleep. Images of dead babies emerged from hospitals.

The office of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu stated in a post on the social media platform X that the Israeli army was striking Hamas targets in Gaza. The statement cited Hamas’s “continued refusal to release hostages” and “Trump’s Middle East Representative Steve Witkoff turning down all proposals offered by mediators” as the reasons for the attacks.

The statement signaled that Israel would expand its attacks.

Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz also claimed that they had relaunched the attacks because Hamas refused to release the Israeli captives. Katz said, “If Hamas does not release all the captives, the gates of hell will open in Gaza.” Katz stated that they would continue the attacks until they achieved their goals.

The Israeli army also announced that the order to attack was given by Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz. The army emphasized that it would continue the airstrikes “as long as necessary” and was ready to move the surprise attack beyond the air operation if ordered.

Chief of General Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir is managing the attacks from the army headquarters together with Shin-Bet Director Ronen Bar.

US support for Israel, which broke the ceasefire and began targeting civilians again with attacks on Gaza, was not delayed. The White House announced that Israel had consulted with the US regarding the attacks.

Speaking to Fox News, White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt, using the expression “Doomsday will break out,” stated that Trump was not afraid to support Israel.

In a written statement from Hamas, it was stated that the Israeli government had broken the ceasefire agreement that came into effect on January 19 and had declared war on the Gaza Strip.

The statement reminded that the Palestinian people were subjected to a barbaric war as well as systematic starvation policies, and added, “We hold the criminal Netanyahu and the Zionist Nazi occupiers responsible for the consequences of the treacherous attacks against Gaza and the defenseless Palestinian people.”

The statement said, “Netanyahu and his radical government, by deciding to undermine the ceasefire agreement, are endangering the lives of the captives in the Gaza Strip and dragging their fate into uncertainty. We call on the mediators to hold Netanyahu and the Zionist occupier responsible for undermining the ceasefire.”

In the statement, Arab countries and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) were called upon to fulfill their responsibilities and stand by the Palestinian people and break the blockade imposed on the Gaza Strip, and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) was called upon to convene urgently.

In its statement, Hamas requested that the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip continue and that Israeli forces withdraw, in accordance with UNSC Resolution 2735.

The first phase of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which came into effect in January, involved Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the release of some of the Israeli hostages. In the second phase, which was supposed to begin after the completion of the first phase, Israel was expected to withdraw completely from Gaza, and the remaining hostages held by Hamas were to be released gradually.

However, if the second phase were to begin and Israel were to withdraw its soldiers from Gaza, Netanyahu’s government was likely to collapse. Unwilling to take this risk, Netanyahu tried to extend the first phase and rescue the Israeli hostages by pressuring Hamas together with the mediators, instead of moving on to the second phase of the agreement. However, Hamas did not accept this and demanded that the agreement be implemented in full.

Meanwhile, Israel’s attack move came after Prime Minister Netanyahu removed Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin-Bet internal intelligence organization, and David Barnea, the director of the Mossad foreign intelligence service, from the country’s negotiation team. Netanyahu argued that he made these changes because the intelligence officials were acting “too softly” in the negotiations.

There is a tension between Israel’s security institutions and the Netanyahu government, the roots of which date back to before the October 7 raid. Due to this tension, which has been increasing since October 7, the previous Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi resigned earlier this month. Shin-Bet Director Ronen Bar was fired by Netanyahu. Reactions from the opposition that Netanyahu was trying to fire Bar for personal reasons increased calls for street protests. With this attack move, Netanyahu has also set a barrier to the major protests planned for tomorrow.

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MIDDLE EAST

Türkiye to double electricity exports to Iraq, reaching 600 MW

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Türkiye is set to double its electricity exports to Iraq, raising the capacity to 600 megawatts. As summer approaches, the Baghdad administration is seeking alternative energy sources to replace those from Iran, which is currently under US sanctions.

The Iraqi Ministry of Electricity announced on Sunday that “All necessary logistical and infrastructure preparations have been completed to increase the electricity supply capacity via the Iraq-Türkiye interconnection line to 600 megawatts.”

During a visit to Iraq, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar met with various officials, including Iraqi Minister of Electricity Ziyad Ali Fadel. The Iraqi Ministry of Electricity stated that Bayraktar confirmed the electricity supply would increase “in the coming months.”

The National reported that in July of last year, Baghdad and Ankara inaugurated the electricity line, which currently supplies 300 MW of electricity to Iraq.

Under the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran initiated by US President Donald Trump, Washington revoked the waiver last week that permitted Iraq to import energy from Iran.

Despite being the second-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Iraq struggles to meet its electricity demand due to decades of war, mismanagement, and corruption. Former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Kazimi said in 2020 that the country had spent at least $60 billion on the electricity sector since the US-led invasion in 2003.

Baghdad sources approximately one-third of its electricity from Iran. Iraq buys 50 million cubic meters of natural gas and 500 megawatts of electricity daily from Iran. Iraqi officials have stated that US sanctions will only impact electricity imports.

Since 2018, Washington has granted waivers allowing Iraq to import energy from Iran for specific periods, typically ranging from 45 to 120 days. However, the US seeks to reduce Iraq’s reliance on Iran and continues to apply pressure to achieve this.

Iraq has taken steps in recent years to develop its natural gas resources and address the deficit in the electricity sector. According to the Iraqi Ministry of Oil, the country’s natural gas reserves are approximately 3.714 billion cubic meters.

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MIDDLE EAST

New Syrian constitution draft sparks controversy over Islamic law

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Ahmed Shara, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) administration in Syria, signed a declaration outlining the basic provisions of the interim constitution. The de facto administration in northern Syria, led by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDG) which signed an agreement with HTS earlier this week, rejected the articles in the draft constitution, stating that they are “identical to the laws on which the Ba’ath regime is based.”

In a statement made on behalf of the de facto administration, which calls itself the “Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria” under the leadership of the SDG, it was stated, “Months after the fall of the Ba’ath regime and despite the joy of the Syrian people who rebelled against this regime and its oppressive practices, a ‘Draft Constitution’ declaration was published in Damascus.”

The statement claimed that the articles in the draft constitution are “identical to the laws on which the Ba’ath regime is based” and are “far from the reality and diversity of Syria.”

It was stated that the draft constitution excludes the main components of Syria’s national structure, including Kurds, Arabs, Assyrians, and other ethnic and religious groups, and that they reject and condemn the draft in its current form.

“This so-called constitutional framework does not reflect the demands of the Syrian people and its various communities,” the statement said. “The Syrian people revolted against such practices, and a return to this outdated approach will further deepen the nation’s wounds.”

The statement continued: “The correct constitution that should be in place is one prepared and agreed upon by all communities. We hope that some exclusive, narrow-minded views and thoughts do not take us back to square one. Only in this way can it serve as the foundation for a sustainable democratic future in Syria.”

An agreement was reached between the HTS administration and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDG) on Monday, March 10. The agreement, signed between Ahmed Shara, the leader of the HTS administration, and Mazlum Abdi, the leader of the SDG, envisioned the integration of the SDG into Syrian state institutions.

Yesterday, three days after the agreement with the SDG, Shara signed a 53-article declaration outlining the basic provisions of the interim constitution. According to the declaration, the constitution includes the article, “The religion of the President is Islam, and Islamic law (fiqh) is the main source of legislation.”

The constitution, which envisages a five-year transition period, grants Shara, who is declared the “interim President,” executive power, the authority to appoint one-third of the legislative body, and the power to appoint judges to the constitutional court. Shara will also have the power to declare a state of emergency. Additionally, all political party activities in the country are suspended until the political parties law comes into effect.

According to Anadolu Agency, the highlights of the interim constitutional declaration are as follows:

– Article 1: The Syrian Arab Republic is a fully independent and sovereign state. Its geographical and political unity is indivisible, and no part of it can be relinquished.

– Article 2: The religion of the President is Islam, and Islamic law (fiqh) is the main source of legislation. Freedom of belief is guaranteed. The state respects all heavenly religions and guarantees freedom of worship. However, this freedom must not violate public order.

– Article 6: All citizens have equal rights and obligations before the law. Discrimination based on race, religion, gender, or lineage is prohibited.

– Article 7: The personal status of religious communities is protected and applied in accordance with their beliefs and Sharia. It is regulated within the framework of existing laws.

– Article 8: The state regulates the national economy based on social justice, free competition, and the prevention of monopolies. It supports production sectors, encourages investment, and protects investors to strengthen sustainable development.

– Article 13: The state guarantees freedom of expression, thought, press, publication, and media. These rights are regulated by law to protect public order and respect the rights of others.

– Article 14: The state recognizes the right to political participation and the freedom to form parties based on national foundations. A commission will be formed to prepare the party law, and party activities will be suspended until this law comes into effect.

– Article 15: The state commits to protecting human rights and fundamental freedoms in accordance with international conventions and humanitarian norms.

– Article 16: The state protects the family as the foundation of society and commits to supporting motherhood and childhood.

– Article 17: The state commits to protecting the social status and active role of women and protecting them from all forms of violence and discrimination.

– Article 18: The state commits to protecting children from abuse and mistreatment and ensuring their access to education and health services.

– Article 20: The People’s Assembly is appointed by the President and performs legislative duties until a permanent constitution is adopted and new parliamentary elections are held.

– Article 27: The President is the head of state, the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and the highest authority responsible for the administration of the country.

– Article 35: The judiciary is independent. Judges are bound only by law and their conscience.

– Article 36: No crime or punishment can be applied without a legal regulation. Everyone is presumed innocent until proven guilty. Extraordinary courts cannot be established.

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