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‘There is no shift in Turkey’s axis’

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The NATO summit in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius has ended. Do Turkey’s intra-NATO maneuvers signal a change or a fine-tuning of Ankara’s post-election foreign policy course? According to Dr. Kaan Kutlu Ataç, there is no shift in axis or geopolitical reason for it. Stating that Turkey has two main agendas focused on economy and defense, Ataç emphasizes that the maneuvers, negotiations and steps in foreign policy should be viewed from this perspective.

The NATO summit in Vilnius is the second meeting held in the shadow of the Russia-Ukraine war. Having been on its agenda since the war, NATO’s enlargement policy is noteworthy as a bargaining chip that Ankara uses against its Western allies.

At the Spain Summit, Ankara put forward certain demands in exchange for Finland and Sweden’s membership, and although it gave its approval to Finland, it kept the Sweden card until this summit. In Vilnius, the new foreign affairs team re-set the bargaining table by bringing up the back-burner issue of “opening Turkey’s path to the European Union (EU)”.

While lifting sanctions on the defense industry, paving the way for the sale of F-16s, and Sweden’s consideration of Ankara’s sensitivities in the fight against terrorism were the most prominent demands, according to Dr. Kaan Kutlu Ataç, “the economic pendulum is the most important parameter for Ankara in foreign policy.”

“Ankara is maximalist in negotiations”

Commenting on the NATO summit to Harici, Dr. Kaan Kutlu Ataç, a lecturer at Mersin University, shares the view that the sometimes hardening or softening relations between Turkey and the West cannot be discussed in the brackets of “axis shift”. According to Ataç, “the typical approach of Turkish foreign policy is maximalist.”

Underlining that “middle powers act with a maximalist approach in their foreign policies and aim for the highest benefit,” Ataç says, “Lifting sanctions is a priority for Turkey.”

Ataç assesses that the rapprochement process with Russia after the 2016 coup attempt was also driven by pragmatic priorities and reminds that both countries have deep mutual mistrust.

Ataç says that although Turkey and Russia have conflicting interests in the Caucasus, Africa and Libya, these differences do not prevent them from developing deep relations in trade, tourism and energy.

“There are security-related tensions and mutual concerns,” Ataç says, adding that despite these, Ankara and Moscow will continue to develop relations based on pragmatic mutual benefit.

Why is there no axis shift?

How will the prioritization of NATO and the EU agenda and Ankara’s desire to open a new page with Western allies affect relations with Moscow? According to Russian statements, there will be no significant change. Indeed, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “Turkey has obligations to NATO regarding Sweden’s NATO membership,” adding that Moscow is willing to develop relations with Ankara despite differences of opinion.

“Historically, relations with Russia have always been based on tensions,” said Dr. Kaan Kutlu Ataç, adding that “Turkey is developing the relations with Moscow that it needs. There are conflicts of interest in Turkey’s relations with Moscow.”

He summarizes the relations between Ankara, Brussels and Moscow as “Turkey has pragmatic relations with Russia, and there is no strategic rupture with NATO.”

Ataç justifies why he thinks there is no axis shift as follows: “There does not seem to be an axis shift in a technical sense. For there to be an axis shift, the importance of the Anatolian peninsula must strategically increase or decrease. On the axis stretching from North Africa to the Baltic, Anatolia is right in the middle. In NATO’s security policies, Anatolia should be one of the thickest links in the chain.”

“The US is taking Greece to another level”

According to Prof. Kaan Kutlu Ataç, Turkey’s desire for the lifting of Western overt and covert sanctions has two goals. The first is to meet the need for modernization in the defense industry. The second is to ensure the flow of Western resources into the blocked financial system.

On the other hand, “there is a sharp line in Turkey-US relations,” says Ataç, adding that the US has “shifted security from Ankara to Athens.

Emphasizing that modernization is a priority in Turkey’s defense, Ataç says Washington has “elevated the Greek army to another level.”

“The West will not give too much”

“Turkey is looking to get what it can from the West in terms of economy and defense industry,” says Ataç, noting that there is a bottleneck on financial and monetary issues.

To what extent can Ankara, which focuses on creating a positive agenda with NATO, the US, the EU and the West in general, achieve the desired results?

At this point, Ataç says, “It seems that they will not give too much. Turkey is looking to Arab capital for this. However, Arab capital also has close financial ties with the West,” he notes.

“The US wants to further wear Russia down”

Ukraine’s NATO membership agenda has been postponed indefinitely, but signs of escalating war have raised tensions. Moscow responded harshly to the G7 countries’ pledge of security guarantees for Ukraine and the hot topic of supplying Kiev with fighter jets. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called Western plans to supply Kiev with US-designed fighter jets “an extremely dangerous development” and said Moscow sees the F-16 supply as a nuclear threat.

“For the United States, Russia is an adversary that can be overcome,” Ataç said, adding that Washington “wants to further wear Russia down.”

Ataç continued:

“Creating an adversary you can overcome… This is how Russia is defined in the strategy. And crisis management is important for managing tensions, so you need to keep that tension with Russia. The West has not technically integrated Moscow into Western institutions, neither during the Cold War nor after the Cold War.”

“The US is playing this game very hard,” Ataç says, emphasizing that the US “needs the Russian threat” to maintain its domination over Europe.

Diplomacy

NATO chief introduces ‘DOGE’-style reforms ahead of Trump summit

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NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has begun to reduce employment within the alliance as part of a major restructuring effort.

Rutte, who took office as NATO chief last October, plans to eliminate two divisions at the Brussels headquarters and cut dozens of positions.

“He is basically DOGE-ing NATO,” said an alliance official, referring to the radical downsizing initiative in the US federal government led by Elon Musk earlier this year.

This previously unreported restructuring comes ahead of a critical summit in The Hague, which begins on Tuesday and will be attended by US President Donald Trump, amid widespread concerns that the NATO-skeptic president might one day withdraw from the military alliance.

The reforms are taking place in a complex geopolitical and defense environment, with wars shaking Ukraine and the Middle East, and warnings from the Trump administration that the US may take a backseat in Europe’s security in the future.

When Rutte took over from Jens Stoltenberg after his ten-year tenure last year, he announced in his first speech that there was “work to be done” to improve NATO. “My task is to ensure that our alliance continues to adapt to a more complex world,” he said.

The former Dutch prime minister wasted no time in restructuring the alliance’s bureaucracy.

In recent months, he has held two internal meetings with his staff, announcing a series of changes, including reducing NATO’s international staff divisions from eight to six.

The divisions to be eliminated are the Public Diplomacy Division, which serves as NATO’s press service, and the Executive Management Division, the alliance’s human resources department.

The functions of these divisions will largely be taken over by other departments. However, the assistant secretaries general, who are division heads appointed by the secretary general after consulting with member countries, will no longer continue in their roles, a directly knowledgeable official confirmed to POLITICO.

The Assistant Secretary General for Public Diplomacy, Marie-Doha Besancenot of France, left her post in March and has not been replaced. The head of the Executive Management Division, Carlo Borghini of Italy, will also be leaving his position.

Another official told POLITICO that dozens of positions will be eliminated as part of the restructuring, but added that the cuts do not “seem very high” and that new staff will be hired.

“This is something that happens when a new secretary general comes in,” a former senior NATO official told POLITICO about Rutte’s plans to restructure the alliance.

The former senior official said Rutte’s reform is not as reckless as Musk’s infamous Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative, which resulted in the dismissal of American federal employees with almost no warning and the shutdown of US agencies.

“This is being done by insiders who really understand the priorities, the existing structures, and the processes. That’s why it’s a much more long-term and deliberate process than DOGE,” the official said.

NATO is headquartered in Brussels and employs approximately 4,000 people, including about 1,500 international staff for whom Rutte is responsible.

Most are temporary workers or “temporary staff”—typically younger, junior personnel on short-term, six-month contracts. Two current officials told POLITICO there has been a distinct shift toward reducing the number of temporary positions and making more roles permanent.

“It’s hard to ensure consistency if you go from temporary job to temporary job,” said the former senior NATO official, adding that discussions about high turnover and reducing reliance on short-term staff began before Rutte’s tenure.

“They are incredibly talented and dedicated people, and I hope that because of their experience and the fact that they already have security clearance, they will have the chance to apply for suitable contract positions,” the former official added.

Speaking on behalf of the alliance, a senior NATO official said regarding the staff cuts, “Secretary General Rutte is committed to an effective and efficient NATO,” and “he has initiated a restructuring process to optimize the operations of NATO headquarters.”

“The restructuring process, which has also taken into account the views of the staff and has been approved by the allies, is ongoing,” the official added.

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UK faces critical decision on potential US-Iran conflict

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British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has put his cabinet on alert for a potential US attack on Iran.

British officials describe the situation as “serious and volatile,” while the prime minister’s team has discussed whether Donald Trump will launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities from the joint US-UK airbase on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

So far, the United Kingdom has not been directly involved in the Israeli-Iranian conflict and appears determined to avoid any steps that could lead to the closure of its embassy in Tehran, a key Western diplomatic hub in the Middle East.

According to officials familiar with the discussions who spoke to the Financial Times (FT), Starmer discussed the possibility of a US attack on Iran during a meeting of the Whitehall emergency committee on Wednesday.

The meeting was attended by senior cabinet ministers, military officials, intelligence chiefs, and the US Ambassador, Lord Peter Mandelson.

The prime minister has maintained his call for “de-escalation,” which is the official reason for the UK not offering any support to Israel in defending itself against Iranian air attacks.

On Wednesday evening, Starmer held a phone call with the Emir of Qatar, who has close ties with Iran, to discuss the conflict.

Downing Street stated that Starmer and Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani emphasized “the need for de-escalation and diplomacy.”

At the G7 summit in Canada on Tuesday, Starmer noted that Trump had said “nothing to indicate he would get involved in this conflict.”

However, British officials later acknowledged that it was unlikely Trump would share his true intentions over dinner with Western leaders and that the White House’s approach to the crisis was an “iterative process.”

The US’s use of the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean for air strikes with B-2 stealth bombers could draw the United Kingdom further into the conflict.

A British official said there was no clear “yes or no” answer as to whether Washington would need London’s approval to use the base for an attack.

However, according to The Times, the US does require the UK’s permission to use the base.

A US military source told the newspaper, “Diego Garcia is under United Kingdom sovereignty. We request permission for any activity related to Diego Garcia.”

The US could also use the UK’s base in Cyprus, where it might be asked to deploy American refueling aircraft.

Last month, the United Kingdom signed a £3.4 billion deal to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, while retaining a 99-year lease on the airbase on Diego Garcia, the largest of the islands.

Israel’s ambassador to London said on Tuesday that London’s defensive support had not been discussed or requested.

This contrasts with last April, when Royal Air Force (RAF) fighter jets shot down Iranian drones fired at Israel. RAF aircraft also provided assistance during Tehran’s missile attack on Israel last October.

The United Kingdom also assisted with US military strikes in Yemen last year.

Britain’s involvement in the current crisis could raise questions about the continued presence of British diplomats in Tehran, where the US does not have an embassy.

A Downing Street spokesperson said after the Whitehall committee meeting, “Ministers were briefed on ongoing diplomatic efforts and efforts to support British nationals in the region and ensure regional security.”

Starmer has repeatedly emphasized “Israel’s right to defend itself” and said Iran cannot be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, but he has avoided stating whether he would support US intervention in the Israeli-Iranian conflict.

Attorney General Lord Hermer has raised concerns about the legality of London’s intervention in the conflict. According to his legal opinion, Britain should limit its involvement to “defensive” support.

However, another government source expressed concern that the UK refusing a US request to conduct bombing raids against Iran would have significant implications for the “special relationship.”

According to The Times, ministers at the meeting discussed various scenarios, including completely withholding support, allowing the use of Diego Garcia, providing logistical support, and a full-scale military intervention. A limited offer of support is seen as the most likely outcome.

No decision has been reached yet, and the government hopes that Trump can be persuaded not to intervene during a brief “window of opportunity” before US military forces are deployed.

The British military is on high alert over fears that troops deployed in the region could be targeted. There are currently 14 Typhoon jets in Cyprus to protect British personnel, and there are concerns that the 100 British soldiers stationed in Baghdad and Erbil could be attacked if the UK is seen to be participating in the conflict.

Theoretically, the Typhoons, flying over Iraq and Syria as part of “Operation Shader” against ISIS, could be used to protect British soldiers from drone attacks or to drop precision-guided Paveway IV bombs on proxy forces.

It is rumored that any US attack on Iran might initially focus on the heavily fortified Fordow nuclear facility, which Israel lacks sufficient bombs to destroy.

The US bunker-buster bombs capable of penetrating Fordow must be launched from American B-2 stealth bombers. In March, Washington deployed at least six B-2As to Diego Garcia as it increased pressure on Tehran to accept a nuclear deal.

Experts noted that the US could launch B-2 attacks from its main base in Missouri, but the additional distance and need for refueling would make any mission more challenging.

A British government spokesperson said they would “not comment on hypothetical operations.”

Meanwhile, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) announced that family members of British embassy and consulate staff in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem have been “temporarily withdrawn as a precautionary measure.”

This decision contradicts the FCDO’s current advice, which instructs British citizens in Israel to register with the British embassy or consulate but does not tell them to leave the country.

British officials stated that the number of people who have registered for advice and other consular assistance is in the “thousands,” most of whom are dual British-Israeli citizens.

The FCDO has reported that it is still possible to leave the country using commercial land routes through Egypt or Jordan, but it has advised British citizens not to attempt to exit Israel.

A Number 10 spokesperson said, “Our key message to British nationals is to follow the advice of local authorities, stay near shelters, and register their presence with the FCDO.”

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Critical 48 hours for US decision on Iran as military options are weighed

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As the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, US President Donald Trump is considering direct military action to deliver a permanent blow to Iran’s nuclear program.

President Trump, who met with his top advisers in the White House Situation Room yesterday, is said to have a critical 24 to 48 hours to decide between diplomacy and military intervention. US officials indicate that it will become clear within this timeframe whether a diplomatic solution with Iran is possible.

Before the meeting, Trump significantly hardened his rhetoric against Iran, claiming to know exactly where Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is hiding. In a social media post, Trump stated, “He is an easy target but he is safe there. We will not take him out (kill him!), at least for now. But we do not want missiles fired at civilians or American soldiers. Our patience is running out.” In another post, he claimed, “We have complete and total control of the skies over Iran right now.”

A final chance for diplomacy?

Despite this intimidating rhetoric, US negotiators believe Iran is in a weak position and can be forced back to the negotiating table. According to several officials involved in the diplomatic process who spoke to ABC News, it is thought that Iran might eventually agree to a deal requiring it to abandon all nuclear enrichment activities.

Officials noted that while Iran and Israel were exchanging attacks, Iran signaled its intention to resume talks with the US. However, the Trump administration is seeking more concrete commitments before abandoning the path to war. If Iran returns to negotiations and agrees to halt uranium enrichment, US officials believe a high-level meeting, led by Special Representative Steve Witkoff and potentially Vice President JD Vance, could take place this week.

This scenario, however, requires Iran to act quickly. President Trump has previously expressed that his patience with the situation in the Middle East is wearing thin. Sources close to the US President said that Trump is frustrated by a destabilized Iran’s inability to provide immediate responses to his administration and is not inclined to allow a situation where Tehran appears to have successfully called his military bluff.

US military buildup increases

Meanwhile, the US military has already begun deploying assets to the region. In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said of the US posture in the Middle East, “We are strong, we are ready, we are on defense, and we are there.”

Although these moves are described as defensive, the repositioning of assets leaves options open should the Trump administration decide to directly assist Israel’s ongoing offensive against Iran. “It is our role to keep options on the table, but our posture is still defensive,” an American official stated.

These steps include sending additional aircraft and a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East to protect the approximately 40,000 American troops stationed in the region. Additionally, more than 30 refueling aircraft have been sent to Europe. Another American official said these planes were moved to the European theater to provide Trump with “options” if the situation escalates further and the US decides to become more involved. The refueling tankers could be used to assist in refueling Israeli jets, offering Trump a less intensive military engagement option.

‘Bunker buster’ bombs on the table

One of the biggest questions facing Trump is whether the US will drop GBU-57 “bunker buster” bombs on Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility. Iran hawks argue this move is necessary to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear threat. Israel does not possess this bomb, which is believed to be the only weapon capable of destroying the highly protected nuclear facility buried deep inside an Iranian mountain.

Furthermore, Israel does not have the B-2 stealth bomber capable of dropping this bomb in its inventory. This situation has led current and former Israeli officials to pressure the US to enter the conflict. The US fleet of 19 B-2 bombers is currently located at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. Six of these aircraft were previously deployed to the air base on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, a location much closer to Iran.

Israel pressures Washington to act

Former Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz told CNN on Monday, “The United States is much stronger than we are. They have capabilities that we do not have. I am sure that if the US decides to act, it will do so not only for our interests but for its own.”

Another former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, told CNN that Trump has a “responsibility to ensure the region moves in a positive direction and that the world is free from a nuclear-armed Iran.”

In the fifth day of missile attacks, Israel has damaged Iran’s energy facilities, missile sites, nuclear infrastructure, command centers, and state television. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shows no interest in negotiations after launching the largest-ever military operation against his regional rival last week. In the ongoing large-scale missile exchanges between the two sides, at least 24 people have been killed in Israel and more than 220 in Iran.

Trump’s agenda is changing

Among the signs that the Trump administration may be approaching military action is the possibility that the president will cancel his travel plans to a NATO summit in the Netherlands next week. At a press conference yesterday, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said the summit was still “on the schedule” but that the situation could change depending on the dynamic with Iran. “This is a very fast-moving situation. So I would say anything is possible,” Bruce assessed.

President Trump had returned to Washington early from the G7 summit in Canada on Monday to monitor the situation in the Middle East from the White House.

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