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Three years history of anti-Taliban movements and their common failures

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Three years have passed since the fall of the “Afghanistan Republic” following the victory of the Taliban after over 20 years of deadly fighting against the US forces and the then Afghan security forces. The Taliban entered Kabul, the capital city, on 15 of August 2021, following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in a hasty way. At the outset, the Taliban announced amnesty to everyone including the Afghan politicians, former soldiers and those who worked for the US and other foreign troops in Afghanistan in the last 20 years. The Taliban called on the exile-Afghan politicians to return back to their country under full protection of the Taliban. However, it seems, no politician was willing to go back rather they called for resistance against the Taliban.

Meanwhile, some politicians formed new political parties with different names to fight against the Taliban, while some of them remained silent and opposed armed resistance against the Taliban.

Military fronts have also formed against the Taliban and it seems that they have failed to create a serious challenge to the government of Taliban. Now, on the three-year anniversary of the fall of the Republic, a look at the three-year track record of anti-Taliban movements and fronts is being taken.

Supreme Council of National Resistance of Afghanistan

Afghanistan’s national resistance movement is one of the first anti-Taliban political movements in which political figures and jihadi leaders have gathered.

This council announced its existence very soon after the fall of the Afghan government. Key political  figures including Atta Mohammad Noor, Mohammad Mohaqeq, Marshal Dostum, Ahmad Massoud, Ahmadwali Massoud, Ahmadzia Massoud, Abdul Rab Rasool Sayyaf, Salahuddin Rabbani, Mohammad Younis Qannoni, Mohammad Sarour Danesh, Abdul Latif Pedram, Mir Rahman Rahmani, Mohammad Alam Izdiyar, Hazrat Ali and a number of other political figures are members of the council.

This council, which is known by its full name “Supreme Council of Resistance for the Rescue of Afghanistan”, has continuously followed the major political issues of the country since its establishment and has reacted to those issues by issuing declarations in many cases.

The main desire of this council is the presence of all ethnic groups living in the country in political organizations and their participation in power. In order to achieve this goal, this council has proposed the establishment of a political system based on elections and has asked the Taliban to come to the intra-Afghan dialogue and negotiate about the future political system. This was rejected by the Taliban at the very beginning of the formation of this council. 

This council and its prominent members have always said that their priority is to negotiate to solve the political problem of Afghanistan, but if the Taliban do not engage in negotiations and do not make a positive change in their behavior and policy, they will inevitably resort to the military option. 

However, the Taliban said that there is no need to talk about the situation of Afghanistan abroad, and called on them to return to Afghanistan and they will carry talks on the structure of the government inside the country.

National Peace and Justice Movement

The National Peace and Justice Movement political party announced formation by holding an online meeting a year ago. Among the prominent members of this organization are Mohammad Haneef Atmar, Mohammad Masoom Stanekzai, Nisar Ahmed Ghoryani, General Khodadad, Mobarez Rashidi, General Murad Ali Murad, Salamat Azimi, Alam Sai, Seyyed Nurullah Sadat and several other officials of the previous government.

The goal of this political movement is to achieve a system based on people’s votes, and the way to achieve it is the Taliban’s adherence to their commitments in the Doha Agreement between the Taliban and the United States.

This political organization, which has completely excluded war from the options, has not said that if the Taliban do not stick to their commitment, what means and solutions do they have to reach the government based on people’s votes. Although Jalil Shams was mentioned as its temporary head at the time of the announcement of the existence of this political movement, but the speculations are that Mr. Atmar and Mr. Stankzai are in fact in charge of its management and leadership.

However, after this movement announced its existence, it is no longer present in the political and media environment, even to the extent of reacting to cases in news announcements, although it is not completely absent. For example, after a long time, after the United Nations published a report on the functioning of the Ministry of Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, this political movement reacted to it and called the Taliban’s behavior “playing with the religion of Islam” in a statement. This was the only reaction of the national peace and justice movement in 2024. However, this political organization announced that they have formed a coalition with four other political currents under the name “Afghanistan National Movements Coalition” whose desire is to form a government based on people’s votes.

Justice and Freedom Party of Afghanistan led by Sarwar Danesh

Mohammad Sarwar Danesh, the second vice president of Ashraf Ghani from 2014 to 2021, after he left the country on the day of the fall of the Afghan government, he created a political current outside the country called the “Justice and Freedom Party”. As far as the information is available, the members of the leadership of this party are mostly those who were close to Mr. Danesh in the government under the leadership of Ashraf Ghani, including his advisers in the second vice-president.

When Danesh was the vice president of Ghani, changing the political structure from a centralized presidency to federalism with the aim of horizontal distribution of power had become a relatively serious demand at the country level.

At that time, some political parties and the people of Afghanistan continuously emphasized on changing the structure to a federal one, but Mr. Danesh considered it to the detriment of Afghanistan and said that the ground for establishing such an order in the country is not favorable. But now he leads a party whose main goal is to achieve federalism in Afghanistan.

National Resistance Front of Afghanistan led by Ahmad Masoud

On August 15, 2021, when Kabul fell to the Taliban, most of the politicians were deported or evacuated to the foreign countries, but a number of politicians and officials of the previous government went to Panjshir province to start resistance against the Taliban, where it had not yet fallen into the hands of the Taliban. Amrullah Saleh, the first vice president of Ghani, Basmullah Mohammadi, the defense minister of the previous government, and Fazal Ahmed Manavi, the justice minister of the previous government, were prominent government officials who went to Panjshir with a number of former military forces and launched the “Afghan National Resistance Front” under the leadership of Ahmad Masoud

Mr. Saleh claimed the presidency and said that according to the constitution, if the president dies, flees or resigns, his first vice president becomes the interim president. The main goal of this front is to establish a moderate and decentralized Islamic democratic system with respect for human rights and women’s rights. The National Resistance Front first entered into negotiations with the Taliban, but very quickly the issue turned into a frontal war.

On September 6, the Taliban launched an all-out attack and took control of Panjshir, and the last province of Afghanistan also fell into the hands of the Taliban. At the same time, the leaders of the National Resistance Front went abroad, but some of its commanders remained in the field with their military forces and continued to fight against the Taliban. The focus of the war was on parts of Panjshir, Andrabs of Baghlan province and part of Takhar province.

In this war, several prominent commanders of the National Resistance Front, including Commander Malek Dara, Commander Tahir, Commander Khair Mohammad Khairkhah, and some others, were killed along with some of their foot soldiers.

Common failure of anti-Taliban movements

From the very beginning, it was clear that the anti-Taliban movements simply cannot stand together and unite. The creation of so many parties and political or military currents is the most obvious reason for this fragmentation. The current chaotic situation of the Afghan society can also be seen in the face of the anti-Taliban currents.

They can’t trust each other, they don’t accept other leadership and they haven’t been able to get popular support. They are not even in the same page regards to engagement with the Taliban. Some of them in support of a large-scale military operation, while other says war is not the solution, and at the same time the Taliban are saying they are willing to talk with the former politicians but they want this to happen inside the country. The Taliban says that this is an internal issue and must be resolved in the country.

Meanwhile, there is a common perception that these former politicians cannot unite or trust each other and also all of them want to lead the leadership. This common weakness has made the anti-Taliban currents unable to challenge this group in the last three years.

Worth mentioning that some of those who lead the anti-Taliban parties own real estate in Afghanistan under the control of the Taliban, which probably affected their performance.

On the other hand, these people, most of whom held high positions in the previous government of Afghanistan, just as they took the bitter experience of failure with them outside the country, they also took with them the bad memories of accusing each other, negative rivalries and disruptions. Some of them, who have been seen around the country’s politics for years, are accused in public opinion and do not have very defensible cases. Instead of focusing more on people’s power and trying to win people’s trust, these currents and fronts have tried to win foreign support, but they have failed.

Anti-Taliban moments and fronts have failed to gain the trust and support of foreign powers because they have not united and, according to foreigners, have not been able to form an alternative to the Taliban.

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A passenger plane travelling from Baku to Grozny crashes in Kazakhstan

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A passenger plane travelling from Baku to Grozny in Kazakhstan crashed near the city of Aktau. According to Tengrinews, the crew signaled an emergency before the crash occurred.

The Ministry of Transport of Kazakhstan confirmed that the Embraer E190 aircraft, operated by Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL), was carrying 62 passengers and 5 crew members. Among the passengers were 37 citizens of Azerbaijan, 16 citizens of Russia, 6 citizens of Kazakhstan, and 3 citizens of Kyrgyzstan.

Rescue teams from the Kazakhstan Ministry of Emergency Situations, along with 14 ambulances, were dispatched to the crash site. Reports indicate that 28 people have been rescued, including one child. The injured passengers were transferred to Mangistau Regional Hospital in Aktau, where Kazakhstan Health Minister Akmaral Alnazarova stated that the condition of six individuals was critical.

Preliminary investigations suggest the crash may have been caused by a collision with a flock of birds. Azerbaijan Airlines reported that the aircraft crashed near Aktau Airport while attempting to land on a spare runway.

According to officials from Grozny Airport, the aircraft was initially diverted to Makhachkala due to dense fog in Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, and later rerouted to Aktau. The crew signaled an emergency at 08:35, citing a malfunction in the aircraft control system. Emergency landing permission was requested at 08:49, and the crew attempted a manual landing in direct mode. However, the aircraft struck the ground at 09:28.

Authorities, including Rosaviatsiya (Russian Civil Aviation Authority) and aviation officials from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, are investigating the incident. A government commission was established on the instructions of Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to determine the cause of the crash.

In response to the tragedy, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev cancelled his participation in the informal CIS Summit in Russia and decided to return to Baku.

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Trust issue: Pakistan and Afghanistan to boost up fraternal ties

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Pakistan’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, Ambassador Mohammad Sadiq, and his delegation, visited Kabul and held a series of talks with the top Taliban leadership, including interior and foreign ministries.

This is Sadiq’s first visit to Kabul after being assigned as Special Representative for Afghanistan and the reason for his visit was to enhance mutually beneficial cooperation in various fields and advance the fraternal ties between the two neighboring countries, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Sadiq announced the trip on X, saying, “looking forward to meaningful discussions with Afghanistan’s interim ministers (Taliban officials) to strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation.”

During the trip, Sadiq first met with Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Taliban’s acting interior minister – who has lots of influence in Khost, Paktia and Paktika provinces. According to Pakistan, these provinces are the places of movement of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and basically, Kabul and Islamabad relations deteriorated as Pakistan wants Afghanistan to smash on the movements of the TTP inside Afghan soil. However, the Taliban leadership says there are no TTP fighters in the country, and Taliban will not allow any group, including TTP to pose a threat to Afghanistan and to the regional countries.

During the meeting, Sadiq and Haqqani discussed a range of bilateral issues of common interest. Both sides agreed to strengthen bilateral cooperation in various fields to further enhance the fraternal relations between the two countries. The Afghan Ministry of Interior in a statement said that both sides discussed important topics for the improvement of relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan and the solution of existing problems. The Pakistani delegation also expressed their condolences on the assassination of Khalilur Rehman Haqqani, the uncle of Sirajuddin Haqqani and key member of the Haqqani network.

Sadiq first met with Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqain against diplomatic norms to first meet with Foreign Minister 

Khili Haqqani was the first Taliban official who entered Kabul when the Taliban overthrew the former Afghan government following withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan after 20 years of presence. He has served as refugee minister since victory day on August 15 2021. He was killed by a Daesh suicide bomber inside his ministry compound.

Referring to the pessimism of the Taliban leader towards the Haqqani network, the former deputy of the European Union in Afghanistan, Michael Semple does not consider it unlikely that the members of the Taliban supreme leader were involved in the assassination of Khalil Haqqani. Michael Semple said that his assassination dealt a heavy blow to the Haqqani network and that the Taliban would likely pay a price for this.

The Haqqani family has denied the involvement of members of the Taliban supreme leader in the assassination of Khalil Haqqani. Haqqani family members insisted on the unity of the Taliban and the Haqqani family’s obedience to Hebatullah Akhundzadeh, the Taliban’s supreme leader. Their statements were made to deny rumors of differences or the involvement of people close to Hebatullah in Khalil Haqqanis assassination.

But Semple says that Hebatullah was particularly concerned about the Haqqani network’s contacts with Taliban opposition groups and foreign powers.

He added that Khalil Haqqani was more active in this field compared to other Taliban officials, because he had a political and social personality.

Semple said that Khalil Haqqani had connections with the Taliban opposition front and some foreign powers. According to him, although the Haqqani network, especially Sirajuddin Haqqani, have tried to convince the Taliban leader that they are aligned and united, Hebatullah has doubts about them.

He emphasized that Khalil Haqqani had contacts with Sirajuddin, which seemed “illegitimate” from Hebatullah’s point of view.” Sepmel reminded that Khalil Haqqani is not the first Taliban minister who was killed. During the first period of Taliban rule, Mullah Abdul Raqib was killed due to foreign contacts.

Former deputy of the European Union in Afghanistan underlined trust issue between Kandahar Taliban and the Haqqani’s 

The former diplomat. Sempel said that it is possible that the suicide bomber was a member of ISIS in the past, but he managed to assassinate Haqqani with the support of the Kandahar faction.

Sample clarified that the loss of Khalil Haqqani has put a serious blow to the Haqqani network, adding that Khalil Haqqani was one of the survivors of Jalaluddin Haqqani, the leader and founder of Haqqani network, who played a major role in the diplomacy of this network.

Pakistan Special Envoy Sadiq met with Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, where they agreed to work together to further strengthen bilateral cooperation as well as for peace and progress in the region.

Meanwhile, Sadiq also met with Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi on Tuesday, where they held wide ranging discussions. “Agreed to work together to further strengthen bilateral cooperation as well as for peace and progress in the region,” Sadiq said.

The Afghan Foreign Ministry in a statement said both sides discussed bilateral relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, enhancing diplomatic relations, trade, transit, and people-to-people relations.

Also, Sadiq met with Afghan traders and chamber representatives from across Afghanistan to discuss enhanced trade cooperation and economic ties, fostering a stronger bilateral relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The visit comes at a time where ties between Islamabad and Kabul have deteriorated in recent months, especially tensions have flared over the activities of the TTP, an armed group that has escalated attacks in Pakistan since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 2021.

Pakistani top officials, including Prime Minister and the country’s defense minister accused the Taliban of providing safe havens for TTP, an allegation the Taliban denied in strongest possible terms.

Pakistan says that Kabul allowed the TTP fighters to cross the border and carry attacks against the country’s security forces and border guards.

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China plans $411bn private treasury bond issuance in 2025

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Chinese authorities have approved a record issuance of 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in private treasury bonds for 2025, according to two sources cited by Reuters. The move signals Beijing’s commitment to using fiscal stimulus to address economic stagnation.

This represents a significant increase from the 1 trillion yuan issued this year and coincides with preparations for potential tariff hikes on Chinese imports as Donald Trump is expected to reassume the U.S. presidency in January.

The proceeds will target initiatives such as consumer subsidies, business equipment upgrades, and investments in innovation-driven sectors. According to the sources, who spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the issue, the plan underscores China’s proactive approach to offsetting deflationary pressures.

Officials from the State Council Information Office, Ministry of Finance, and National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) did not immediately comment on the development.

Following the announcement, yields on China’s 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds rose by 1 basis point and 2 basis points, respectively. The planned issuance, the largest on record, demonstrates Beijing’s willingness to expand borrowing to stabilize the world’s second-largest economy.

China generally reserves ultra-long-term corporate bonds for extraordinary circumstances, reflecting the significance of this initiative.

Approximately 1.3 trillion yuan from the new issuance will fund “two major” and “two new” programs: A consumer subsidy program to encourage trade-ins for new vehicles and appliances, subsidies for large-scale business equipment upgrades, and infrastructure projects in critical sectors, including railways, airports, and farmland.

The NDRC reported that 70% of the proceeds from this year’s bond issuance funded major projects, while the remainder supported new schemes.

Another significant portion, exceeding 1 trillion yuan, will drive investments in advanced manufacturing, including electric vehicles, robotics, semiconductors, and green energy. Additionally, funds will recapitalize state-owned banks struggling with shrinking margins, declining profits, and rising non-performing loans.

The issuance will account for 2.4% of China’s 2023 GDP. For comparison, Beijing’s 2007 issuance of 1.55 trillion yuan represented 5.7% of GDP at the time.

The announcement follows the annual Central Economic Work Conference, where President Xi Jinping and senior officials outlined economic plans for 2025. The state media summary emphasized “steady economic growth,” raising the fiscal deficit ratio, and increasing government debt issuance, without detailing figures.

Recent Reuters reports indicate China may raise its budget deficit to a record 4% of GDP and aim for an economic growth target of around 5% next year.

China’s economy faces multiple headwinds, including a protracted property crisis, rising local government debt, and weak consumer demand. Exports, traditionally a growth driver, risk new U.S. tariffs of over 60%, threatening another economic lifeline.

Domestic consumption remains subdued, with households grappling with falling property values and minimal social safety nets. To counter weak demand, Beijing plans to expand its consumer and industrial equipment swap programs to more products and sectors.

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