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Three years history of anti-Taliban movements and their common failures

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Three years have passed since the fall of the “Afghanistan Republic” following the victory of the Taliban after over 20 years of deadly fighting against the US forces and the then Afghan security forces. The Taliban entered Kabul, the capital city, on 15 of August 2021, following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in a hasty way. At the outset, the Taliban announced amnesty to everyone including the Afghan politicians, former soldiers and those who worked for the US and other foreign troops in Afghanistan in the last 20 years. The Taliban called on the exile-Afghan politicians to return back to their country under full protection of the Taliban. However, it seems, no politician was willing to go back rather they called for resistance against the Taliban.

Meanwhile, some politicians formed new political parties with different names to fight against the Taliban, while some of them remained silent and opposed armed resistance against the Taliban.

Military fronts have also formed against the Taliban and it seems that they have failed to create a serious challenge to the government of Taliban. Now, on the three-year anniversary of the fall of the Republic, a look at the three-year track record of anti-Taliban movements and fronts is being taken.

Supreme Council of National Resistance of Afghanistan

Afghanistan’s national resistance movement is one of the first anti-Taliban political movements in which political figures and jihadi leaders have gathered.

This council announced its existence very soon after the fall of the Afghan government. Key political  figures including Atta Mohammad Noor, Mohammad Mohaqeq, Marshal Dostum, Ahmad Massoud, Ahmadwali Massoud, Ahmadzia Massoud, Abdul Rab Rasool Sayyaf, Salahuddin Rabbani, Mohammad Younis Qannoni, Mohammad Sarour Danesh, Abdul Latif Pedram, Mir Rahman Rahmani, Mohammad Alam Izdiyar, Hazrat Ali and a number of other political figures are members of the council.

This council, which is known by its full name “Supreme Council of Resistance for the Rescue of Afghanistan”, has continuously followed the major political issues of the country since its establishment and has reacted to those issues by issuing declarations in many cases.

The main desire of this council is the presence of all ethnic groups living in the country in political organizations and their participation in power. In order to achieve this goal, this council has proposed the establishment of a political system based on elections and has asked the Taliban to come to the intra-Afghan dialogue and negotiate about the future political system. This was rejected by the Taliban at the very beginning of the formation of this council. 

This council and its prominent members have always said that their priority is to negotiate to solve the political problem of Afghanistan, but if the Taliban do not engage in negotiations and do not make a positive change in their behavior and policy, they will inevitably resort to the military option. 

However, the Taliban said that there is no need to talk about the situation of Afghanistan abroad, and called on them to return to Afghanistan and they will carry talks on the structure of the government inside the country.

National Peace and Justice Movement

The National Peace and Justice Movement political party announced formation by holding an online meeting a year ago. Among the prominent members of this organization are Mohammad Haneef Atmar, Mohammad Masoom Stanekzai, Nisar Ahmed Ghoryani, General Khodadad, Mobarez Rashidi, General Murad Ali Murad, Salamat Azimi, Alam Sai, Seyyed Nurullah Sadat and several other officials of the previous government.

The goal of this political movement is to achieve a system based on people’s votes, and the way to achieve it is the Taliban’s adherence to their commitments in the Doha Agreement between the Taliban and the United States.

This political organization, which has completely excluded war from the options, has not said that if the Taliban do not stick to their commitment, what means and solutions do they have to reach the government based on people’s votes. Although Jalil Shams was mentioned as its temporary head at the time of the announcement of the existence of this political movement, but the speculations are that Mr. Atmar and Mr. Stankzai are in fact in charge of its management and leadership.

However, after this movement announced its existence, it is no longer present in the political and media environment, even to the extent of reacting to cases in news announcements, although it is not completely absent. For example, after a long time, after the United Nations published a report on the functioning of the Ministry of Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, this political movement reacted to it and called the Taliban’s behavior “playing with the religion of Islam” in a statement. This was the only reaction of the national peace and justice movement in 2024. However, this political organization announced that they have formed a coalition with four other political currents under the name “Afghanistan National Movements Coalition” whose desire is to form a government based on people’s votes.

Justice and Freedom Party of Afghanistan led by Sarwar Danesh

Mohammad Sarwar Danesh, the second vice president of Ashraf Ghani from 2014 to 2021, after he left the country on the day of the fall of the Afghan government, he created a political current outside the country called the “Justice and Freedom Party”. As far as the information is available, the members of the leadership of this party are mostly those who were close to Mr. Danesh in the government under the leadership of Ashraf Ghani, including his advisers in the second vice-president.

When Danesh was the vice president of Ghani, changing the political structure from a centralized presidency to federalism with the aim of horizontal distribution of power had become a relatively serious demand at the country level.

At that time, some political parties and the people of Afghanistan continuously emphasized on changing the structure to a federal one, but Mr. Danesh considered it to the detriment of Afghanistan and said that the ground for establishing such an order in the country is not favorable. But now he leads a party whose main goal is to achieve federalism in Afghanistan.

National Resistance Front of Afghanistan led by Ahmad Masoud

On August 15, 2021, when Kabul fell to the Taliban, most of the politicians were deported or evacuated to the foreign countries, but a number of politicians and officials of the previous government went to Panjshir province to start resistance against the Taliban, where it had not yet fallen into the hands of the Taliban. Amrullah Saleh, the first vice president of Ghani, Basmullah Mohammadi, the defense minister of the previous government, and Fazal Ahmed Manavi, the justice minister of the previous government, were prominent government officials who went to Panjshir with a number of former military forces and launched the “Afghan National Resistance Front” under the leadership of Ahmad Masoud

Mr. Saleh claimed the presidency and said that according to the constitution, if the president dies, flees or resigns, his first vice president becomes the interim president. The main goal of this front is to establish a moderate and decentralized Islamic democratic system with respect for human rights and women’s rights. The National Resistance Front first entered into negotiations with the Taliban, but very quickly the issue turned into a frontal war.

On September 6, the Taliban launched an all-out attack and took control of Panjshir, and the last province of Afghanistan also fell into the hands of the Taliban. At the same time, the leaders of the National Resistance Front went abroad, but some of its commanders remained in the field with their military forces and continued to fight against the Taliban. The focus of the war was on parts of Panjshir, Andrabs of Baghlan province and part of Takhar province.

In this war, several prominent commanders of the National Resistance Front, including Commander Malek Dara, Commander Tahir, Commander Khair Mohammad Khairkhah, and some others, were killed along with some of their foot soldiers.

Common failure of anti-Taliban movements

From the very beginning, it was clear that the anti-Taliban movements simply cannot stand together and unite. The creation of so many parties and political or military currents is the most obvious reason for this fragmentation. The current chaotic situation of the Afghan society can also be seen in the face of the anti-Taliban currents.

They can’t trust each other, they don’t accept other leadership and they haven’t been able to get popular support. They are not even in the same page regards to engagement with the Taliban. Some of them in support of a large-scale military operation, while other says war is not the solution, and at the same time the Taliban are saying they are willing to talk with the former politicians but they want this to happen inside the country. The Taliban says that this is an internal issue and must be resolved in the country.

Meanwhile, there is a common perception that these former politicians cannot unite or trust each other and also all of them want to lead the leadership. This common weakness has made the anti-Taliban currents unable to challenge this group in the last three years.

Worth mentioning that some of those who lead the anti-Taliban parties own real estate in Afghanistan under the control of the Taliban, which probably affected their performance.

On the other hand, these people, most of whom held high positions in the previous government of Afghanistan, just as they took the bitter experience of failure with them outside the country, they also took with them the bad memories of accusing each other, negative rivalries and disruptions. Some of them, who have been seen around the country’s politics for years, are accused in public opinion and do not have very defensible cases. Instead of focusing more on people’s power and trying to win people’s trust, these currents and fronts have tried to win foreign support, but they have failed.

Anti-Taliban moments and fronts have failed to gain the trust and support of foreign powers because they have not united and, according to foreigners, have not been able to form an alternative to the Taliban.

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Afraid of the gun; Taliban supreme leader fears of a coup

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Hibatullah Akhundzada, the supreme leader of the Taliban, has ordered the security institutions that without his permission, “no one can distribute or use the military equipment registered by the ministries of defense and interior, the directorate of intelligence and other independent institutions.”

Experts and analysts have considered this move by Hibatullah as last resort to weaken the position of defense minister, Yaqoob Mujahid, interior minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani and the head of Taliban intelligence, Abdul Haq Wasiq in order to prevent a possible internal coup that was initiated by these three top officials.

In the first article of the order, it is mentioned that no person can distribute military equipment registered in the reserves of the ministries of defense, interior and intelligence, or issue an order to distribute it without the order of Hibatullah.

This decree titled “Regarding the distribution, protection and supervision of registered military equipment”, specifies that whenever an Emirate entity (Taliban-related entity) needs weapons, ammunition, night vision cameras, telecommunications and other military equipment” must receive the approval order from the leader of the Taliban.

Also, in the second article of this decree, it is stated that whenever one of the military departments of the Taliban needs military equipment, it must send its request to Hibatullah’s office in Kandahar.

In the third article of the decree, it is emphasized that if the military equipment was distributed or used without the permission of the Taliban leader before the issuance of this decree, they must be returned to the reserves.

Ministries of defense, interior and head of intelligence department are banned from disturbing military weapons.

According to this article, Hibatullah entrusted the ministries of defense and interior, as well as the general directorate of Taliban intelligence, with the responsibility to report the list of available military equipment to the directorate of registration, and protection of military equipment.

This order of the Taliban leader has been considered as another step in the direction of concentrating more power in the hands of Mullah Hibatullah in Kandahar. Many have seen it as a sign of Hibatullah’s increasing distrust of senior Taliban officials in Kabul. Previously, some senior Taliban officials, including Sirajuddin Haqqani, have openly disobeyed Hibatullah’s order to prohibit photography and filming and have not followed the order of their supreme leader.

(R) Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoob Mujahid and (L) Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani.

Previously, several reports have been published about the sale of military equipment left over from the US troops and Afghan security forces during the republic government. Even the US-elected president Donald Trump, repeatedly mentioned this issue during his election campaigns. Not long ago, the government of Pakistan also announced that the Pakistan security forces have discovered and confiscated a car carrying US weapons smuggled from Afghanistan.

Pakistani media reported that this equipment included M4 assault rifles, night vision cameras and thousands of rounds of ammunition, which were transported in a truck carrying vegetables. Pakistani security officials have estimated the total value of weapons smuggled from Afghanistan in this truck to be 126,354 US dollars.

The cost of US’s remaining equipment in Afghanistan estimated over 7 billion US dollars

The Pentagon has already announced that after the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, about 7 billion dollars of military equipment fell into the hands of the Taliban. This equipment reached the hands of the Taliban after the fall of Afghanistan on 15 August, 2021.

It has been reported that when the US forces left Afghanistan, there were 78 US-made aircrafts in the country, whose value reached 1 billion dollars. According to CNN, with the end of the US military presence, a total of more than 9,000 air-to-ground munitions worth more than six and a half million dollars have remained in Afghanistan.

The report also states that out of a total of 96,000 military vehicles, more than 40,000 units, including 12,000 Humvees (armored tanks), fell into the hands of the Taliban. Moreover, out of a total of more than 400,000 weapons that the US gave to the forces of the former Afghan government, about 300,000 remain in the country.

Almost all “communications equipment, including mobile base stations, portable and hand-held commercial and military radio systems, and associated transmitters and encryption devices, all remain in Afghanistan,” according to the report.

The report added that “almost all” of the equipment for night vision cameras, surveillance, biometric and positioning equipment,” a total of nearly 42 thousand pieces of specialized equipment, remained in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, Five Mi 17 helicopters of the then Afghan army, which were transferred to Ukraine for repair before the collapse of the government, have also returned to Afghanistan and now are used by the Taliban.

It should be noted that the internal rivalries in the Taliban, especially among the different factions of this group, is one of the important reasons for Mullah Hibatullah’s distrust of some Taliban officials. Some officials, including interior minister Sirajuddin Haqqani and defense minister Mohammad Yaqub Mujahid, gained a lot of power, especially during the Taliban’s war against foreign forces, and Mullah Hibatullah may be worried that these officials are trying to expand their power, which is a clear threat to his position as the Taliban leader.

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China’s BYD prepares to launch latest SUV, the Sealion 07, in Europe despite EU tariffs

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BYD, the world’s largest electric vehicle (EV) maker, is set to launch its latest SUV, the Sealion 07, in Europe, undeterred by recent tariff increases on Chinese-made electric vehicles. This strategic move highlights BYD’s commitment to expanding overseas sales despite economic barriers.

Deliveries of the Sealion 07 are scheduled to begin in 2025, marking BYD’s seventh all-electric model in the European market, the company announced on Wednesday. Additionally, BYD plans to enter the South Korean market next year, adding to its existing presence in 95 countries worldwide.

This European expansion comes on the heels of the European Union’s decision last month to impose new tariffs—ranging from 17% to 35.3%—on Chinese electric vehicles following an anti-subsidy investigation. BYD’s EVs are subject to a 17% tariff, in addition to the standard 10% tariff applied to all pure electric cars imported from China. These tariffs, which took effect last month, will remain in place for five years. Meanwhile, U.S. tariffs on Chinese-made EVs increased from 25% to 100% as of September, citing similar concerns.

Despite the added costs, BYD’s vehicles continue to hold strong appeal in export markets. “BYD’s vehicles remain attractive even after the additional tariffs, so it’s not really a big problem for the company,” said Chen Jinzhu, CEO of Shanghai Mingliang Auto Service, a leading industry consultancy. “The Sealion 07 exemplifies how BYD’s cost advantage enables it to counteract such trade barriers in key export markets.”

Shenzhen-based BYD has yet to disclose the European pricing for the Sealion 07. On the mainland, the SUV—featuring a range of 450 kilometers—starts at 189,800 yuan (approximately US$26,272), with deliveries beginning in May.

According to a report last year from UBS analysts, BYD has a sustainable cost advantage of 25% over traditional European brands.

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Singles’ day promotions target overseas Chinese as China’s domestic demand slows

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After last year’s Singles’ Day shopping festival in China was dubbed the “quietest in history,” China’s e-commerce platforms focused on a new strategy this year.

For this year’s Singles’ Day event, major e-commerce companies such as Alibaba, JD.com, and Pinduoduo invested heavily in expanding overseas markets, targeting the estimated 100 million Chinese living abroad with offers like discounts and free or low-cost shipping.

The central question, however, is not whether these efforts will succeed in the short term, but rather if this shift can help platforms grow their user bases as online sales growth in China reaches a bottleneck.

“Domestic consumption is quite weak right now, and every company is certainly considering new ways to drive growth for Singles’ Day,” said an executive at a leading online retailer, who requested anonymity. “The overseas market is widely seen as a promising source for additional growth,” he added in an interview with Nikkei Asia.

Singles’ Day, a one-day sales event launched by Alibaba in 2009 as a celebration for singles, has since evolved into a month-long campaign with special offers and deep discounts, culminating on or around November 11.

This year, China aimed to revitalize its retail sector with the event. Total consumer goods sales rose by 3.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, though high-end consumer spending remained stagnant. Cosmetics sales fell by 1%, while gold and silver jewelry sales declined by 3.1% year-on-year.

Last month, Alibaba’s Taobao launched a significant marketing campaign in Hong Kong and Taiwan, flooding subway stations with advertisements for “free shipping on orders over 99 yuan,” among other offers. According to the company, the campaign cost 2 billion New Taiwan dollars ($61.7 million) in Taiwan and 1 billion yuan ($138 million) in Hong Kong.

Following Alibaba’s move, JD.com announced it had invested 1.5 billion yuan to offer discounted product prices and cheaper shipping to Hong Kong shoppers. Bargain platform Pinduoduo took it a step further, offering free shipping via courier SF Express for Hong Kong shoppers, regardless of the item’s price. All products on these platforms are shipped from mainland China.

A spokesperson from Alibaba’s International Digital Commerce Group noted that since the overseas initiative launched in October, Taobao Hong Kong has achieved double-digit growth in both orders and gross merchandise value (GMV)—a metric that excludes canceled orders—on both a monthly and year-on-year basis.

The platforms are also targeting Chinese shoppers in Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore.

This year, unlike in previous years, shoppers could combine online discounts with a subsidy program introduced by the Chinese government to boost domestic consumption, primarily for home appliances and household products. Analysts suggest these incentives will likely boost sales for JD.com, which is known for selling high-quality large appliances and offering after-sales services.

While JD.com has yet to release sales or GMV figures for home appliances during the shopping festival, it is expected to share its June-September results, along with Alibaba, later this week.

Last year, data provider Syntun estimated that total GMV on major e-commerce platforms grew by only 2.1% to 1.14 trillion yuan, falling short of the 2.9% growth forecast for 2022. Similarly, consultancy Bain predicted that Singles’ Day sales would reach 1.15 trillion yuan in 2023.

On Tuesday morning, Alibaba announced “strong GMV growth” and a “record number” of active shoppers for this year’s Singles’ Day event.

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