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TikTok ban is on the cards in US

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In a rare ‘bipartisan’ move, the US House of Representatives yesterday voted 352-65 in favour of legislation that could ban TikTok. If the company’s owner, ByteDance, does not sell the application within 6 months, TikTok will be removed from application stores in the US.

The passage of federal legislation targeting TikTok in the House of Representatives is the most advanced step since lawmakers began questioning whether the app’s Chinese ownership compromised national security. The bill, which would require TikTok’s parent company ByteDance to sell or shut down the app, now goes to the Senate.

The fact that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has not made a clear statement about when he will bring the bill to the Senate floor suggests that there will be a long process to get the bill passed.

Some senators, including Senator Rand Paul, are concerned that the bill could violate free speech rights.

If the bill were to become law, it is possible that the TikTok ban could have an impact on the economy created by creators, small businesses, and advertisers.

In the event of a TikTok ban, it has been estimated that content creators and their followers may turn to alternative platforms such as Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, and Snapchat to compensate for the loss.

This change could also benefit US-based Meta and Alphabet, as they are expected to receive some of TikTok’s advertising revenue.

“This is a ban based on zero evidence,” a company spokesperson told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

According to research group OpenSecrets, TikTok has spent over $21 million lobbying to fight the ban since 2019.

The decision has caused discomfort in China as well. A spokesman for the foreign ministry accused the US of ‘suppressing TikTok’ and stated that “In the end, this will inevitably come back to bite the US itself.”

According to Reuters, if President Joe Biden were to follow through on his promise to sign a ban on TikTok due to its ties to the Chinese government, it could potentially impact his re-election campaign by depriving him and other Democrats of a platform that they rely on to reach young voters.

On Tuesday, Biden’s campaign received thousands of likes on a TikTok video that criticized his Republican rival, Donald Trump, for cutting social security spending. However, the comments section was focused on a different topic altogether. The current situation regarding TikTok is being discussed in the Senate, with the White House advocating for a ban. President Biden has expressed his intention to sign the bill if it is passed.

It is worth noting that a significant portion of TikTok’s user base identifies as Democrats, and it is important for the Biden administration to consider their views. Conversely, it is worth noting that the Trump campaign does not have an official TikTok account.

According to the Pew Research Centre’s 2023 survey, approximately 60% of TikTok’s regular users identify as Democrats or lean towards the Democratic party. According to available data, it appears that a significant proportion of TikTok’s user base comprises individuals who identify as Black or Hispanic, with rates of 19% and 30% respectively. These figures are somewhat higher than the corresponding percentages of the general US population, which stand at 14% and 19%. Additionally, it is worth noting that a considerable proportion of TikTok’s users fall within the 18-29 age range, accounting for approximately 44% of the platform’s consumer base.

The White House provided information to over 70 influencers and content creators with a combined following of more than 100 million on social media platforms, including TikTok, regarding topics such as student debt and economic issues. This was done to increase the reach of the President’s message prior to his State of the Union address.

A senior White House official expressed confidence and stated that they are not worried about the ban affecting President Biden’s re-election prospects. Another White House official emphasized the importance of national security concerns over personal opinions. According to a second White House official, the President’s consideration of national security is not influenced by users’ comments on social media platforms such as TikTok.

It is worth noting that federal employees are not permitted to have TikTok on their phones, and as such, the Biden administration staff are not allowed to have the app on their work phones.

AMERICA

Fed cuts interest rates, dollar surges to two-year high

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The U.S. Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by a quarter percentage point but signaled a slower pace of easing next year. This move drove the U.S. dollar to its highest level in two years and triggered a sell-off in both domestic and international stock markets.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted on Wednesday to lower the benchmark interest rate to 4.25–4.5%, marking the third consecutive cut. The lone dissenting vote came from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who favored maintaining the current rates.

Officials highlighted concerns about persistent inflation, projecting fewer rate cuts for 2025 than previously expected. Reflecting these worries, policymakers also raised their inflation forecasts for the coming year. Following the announcement, Fed Chair Jay Powell remarked that the current policy settings were “significantly less restrictive,” indicating the Fed’s inclination to adopt a more cautious approach to further easing.

“This decision was a ‘closer call’ than prior meetings,” Powell noted, emphasizing that inflation trends remain “sideways” while risks to the labor market are “diminishing.”

Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America, described the Fed’s message as “unabashedly hawkish.” He pointed to the shift in officials’ 2025 forecasts, which now anticipate just two quarter-point rate cuts instead of three, calling it a “wholesale shift.”

JPMorgan Chase, a key player in U.S. bond markets, noted that money markets are pricing in only a 0.31 percentage point rate cut in 2025. This outlook, significantly tighter than the bank’s earlier 0.75-point forecast, underscores the magnitude of the Fed’s policy shift.

The decision triggered a sharp sell-off on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 falling 3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropping 3.6%. High-profile winners of the 2024 rally were hit hard, including: Tesla, down 8.3%; Meta (Facebook’s parent company), down 3.6%; Amazon, down 4.6%.

Smaller companies, often seen as more sensitive to US economic fluctuations, also suffered. The Russell 2000 index declined 4.4%.

In Asia, stocks fell in early Thursday trading. Benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan dropped 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, U.S. government bond prices fell, driving the yield on two-year Treasuries—sensitive to Fed policy—up by 0.11 percentage points to 4.35%.

The U.S. dollar surged 1.2% against a basket of six major currencies, reaching its strongest level since November 2022. According to Wells Fargo senior economist Mike Pugliese, the currency had already been rising on expectations of inflationary pressures following Donald Trump’s election victory last month. However, Wednesday’s Fed decision “poured more petrol on the fire.”

The South Korean won dropped to a 15-year low against the dollar, while the Japanese yen weakened 0.5%.

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Amazon pledges $1 billion to Trump inauguration fund

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Amazon confirmed on Thursday that it will contribute $1 million to Donald Trump’s inauguration fund, a move mirroring similar actions by other major tech companies, including Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram. Amazon also plans to broadcast Trump’s inauguration via its Prime Video service.

This announcement comes as major tech executives seek to establish ties with the incoming U.S. president, despite Trump’s longstanding criticisms of Big Tech. Trump has frequently accused technology companies of censorship and bias against conservative media.

Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and CEO, is reportedly planning to meet Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort next week, according to The Wall Street Journal, which first reported Amazon’s donation. Similarly, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Apple CEO Tim Cook have expressed their congratulations to Trump since his election victory in November.

Trump’s relationship with Amazon has been fraught with challenges. During his first term, he accused the company of undercutting competition and criticized its tax policies. In 2018, Trump ordered a review of U.S. Postal Service package pricing, claiming the agency acted as Amazon’s “courier.”

Apple, meanwhile, faces potential risks from Trump’s proposed tariff policies, which could disrupt critical supply chains in China. However, during Trump’s first term, Cook secured exemptions for certain Apple products.

Meta’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, and other tech leaders have also engaged with Trump. According to The Information, Zuckerberg dined with Trump after the election. Pichai is also expected to meet Trump this week.

While Trump scrutinized Big Tech during his presidency, Amazon now faces mounting regulatory pressure under President Joe Biden. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC), led by Lina Khan, has been investigating Amazon for alleged monopoly practices, with several states filing lawsuits last year. The FTC is also examining major cloud service providers, including Amazon, over partnerships in artificial intelligence.

Despite earlier conflicts, Bezos recently praised Trump for his “tremendous grace and courage under real fire” in a post on X (formerly Twitter) following an assassination attempt. Bezos, who also owns The Washington Post, reportedly prevented the newspaper from endorsing Trump’s Democratic opponent Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.

Speculation about a tacit agreement between Bezos and Trump has surfaced, allegedly tied to Blue Origin, Bezos’s rocket company competing with Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

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Investors poured $140 billion into U.S. equities following Trump’s victory

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Nearly $140 billion has flowed into U.S. equity funds since last month’s election, as investors anticipate Donald Trump’s administration will implement sweeping tax cuts and regulatory reforms.

According to the Financial Times (FT), which cites data from EPFR, U.S. equity funds have seen inflows totaling $139.5 billion since Trump’s victory on November 5. This surge in investment made November the busiest month for equity inflows since records began in 2000.

The massive influx of funds has driven major U.S. stock indexes to a series of record highs, as investors appeared to shrug off concerns about potential economic risks, including inflation and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

“The growth agenda that Trump has put on the table is being fully embraced,” said Dec Mullarkey, Chief Executive of SLC Management. He added that Trump’s picks for top administration posts have been seen as “very market friendly.”

Trump has promised to fill his administration with financial experts, including Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, and Paul Atkins, a cryptocurrency advocate, as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The president-elect has outlined a pro-growth agenda, emphasizing reduced taxes, deregulation, and economic expansion. These proposals have spurred optimism among investors, fueling a rally in the market.

The S&P 500, Wall Street’s primary stock market indicator, has risen 5.3% since Election Day, bringing its total gains for the year to 28%. Smaller companies, which are often seen as more responsive to changes in the U.S. economy, have outperformed larger firms during this period. The Russell 2000 index recently hit a record high for the first time in three years.

While U.S. equity funds have enjoyed record inflows, other global markets have experienced outflows emerging market funds have seen net withdrawals of $8 billion, with China-focused funds accounting for $4 billion; funds investing in Western Europe have lost $14 billion; and Japan-focused funds have seen outflows of approximately $6 billion.

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