Middle East
Trump administration to unveil new Gaza governance structure led by Nikolay Mladenov
The Trump administration is moving into the “second phase” of its regional strategy, preparing to unveil a new governance structure for Gaza on Wednesday, January 14, following a series of prolonged delays.
US and Israeli officials tasked with managing the fragile ceasefire insist that progress is achievable, despite the controversial track record of the same individuals involved in the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). The GHF was a previous aid distribution initiative that largely failed after Israeli forces repeatedly opened fire on its designated access routes.
Sources familiar with the plans told the Financial Times (FT) that, following the announcement by senior officials, the administration aims to achieve “quick wins” with Israeli backing. These objectives include the full reopening of the Rafah border crossing into Egypt, the provision of expanded medical support for Palestinians, and the easing of import restrictions on goods entering the Gaza Strip.
According to individuals close to the matter, Nikolay Mladenov, the former Bulgarian defense minister and UN envoy, will be named “High Representative” for the divided territory. Mladenov, a respected diplomat who was not involved with the GHF, will oversee the daily governance operations of a 14-member committee of Palestinian technocrats.
Sources noted that the official announcement of a “Peace Board,” to be led by President Donald Trump and other world leaders, will be deferred for the time being. However, the White House plans to announce an executive committee for the general “board,” comprising key international actors, including US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and the primary architect of the administration’s Gaza policy.
The timing of these announcements may be influenced by Trump’s pending decision on whether to launch military action against Iran.
The next steps in the “second phase” of the ceasefire involve deploying Palestinian technocrats to Gaza to assume control of civil affairs from Hamas, as outlined in the US-brokered ceasefire agreement signed last October that ended two years of conflict.
“We need to demonstrate that they can succeed,” said one regional diplomat, referring to the technocratic committee. However, several individuals familiar with the plans cautioned that significant obstacles remain. Western and Muslim nations remain hesitant to provide peacekeeping forces or funding while Israeli forces occupy half of the territory and Hamas maintains tight control over the other half.
A regional diplomat estimated that tens of billions of dollars are required for reconstruction, yet only $1 billion has been raised to date. US officials, who intend to use this month’s Davos Economic Forum to drum up financial and political support for the Gaza plans, identified the primary hurdles as the uncertainty surrounding the disarmament of Hamas and the Israeli government’s refusal to accept large-scale reconstruction or further troop withdrawals without such disarmament.
Last week, Mladenov traveled to Israel to meet with senior US and Israeli officials, including Benjamin Netanyahu. Present at the Prime Minister’s Office on Thursday were several figures responsible for Gaza’s post-war transition, including Miroslav Zafirov, Mladenov’s chief aide and a former Bulgarian and UN diplomat with extensive Middle East experience.
On the “American” side of the table sat the two Bulgarians alongside Aryeh Lightstone, a senior US envoy leading the Gaza team in Israel, and Liran Tancman, an Israeli tech entrepreneur and former reservist serving as a voluntary advisor to the US team. Facing them on the “Israeli” side were Michael Eisenberg, an Israeli-American venture capitalist advising Netanyahu on Gaza and US policy, and General Roman Gofman, the Prime Minister’s military secretary, who is slated to lead the Mossad intelligence agency later this year.
Sources indicated that all four US and Israeli officials played pivotal roles in planning and promoting the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which operated alongside US private military companies to secure food distribution points in Israeli-controlled areas of Gaza last year. According to GHF insiders and associates, Lightstone worked to secure funding and international backing, while Eisenberg, Tancman, and Gofman developed and advanced the concept within the Israeli establishment.
The private aid distribution plan was linked to attempts to undermine Hamas’s administrative and economic grip on Gaza, a goal that largely failed.
Critics of the US-led “second phase” initiative, including Israeli and Western officials and analysts, argue that the latest plans are detached from the political and security realities on the ground in Gaza. They contend that the small team of US and Israeli officials—consisting of diplomats, businessmen, and informal advisors—is highly ambitious but lacks localized expertise and is overly aligned with Netanyahu’s right-wing administration.
This group has developed an audacious 32-page blueprint titled “Project Sunrise,” a $112 billion plan to redevelop Gaza into a futuristic, AI-powered luxury enclave within a decade. “They are focused on ‘Sunrise’ and are working backward, but there is nothing in between to get there from the current situation [in Gaza],” said one individual involved in Gaza affairs.
A regional diplomat remarked that the group behind the “Sunrise” plan “thinks the sun has risen just because they woke up.” However, the diplomat added, “This is the only option… You can say it’s a bad plan or an insufficient plan, but until someone comes up with a better idea, this is what will happen.”
Two Israeli officials stated that the recent planning reflects the unconventional style Trump has adopted in his second term, where policy is driven by private-sector businessmen utilizing tech-industry methodologies and “informal-official” envoys. This group of US and Israeli civilian officials has effectively bypassed the influence of the Civil-Military Coordination Center, the US-led military headquarters in southern Israel established after last October’s ceasefire.
Meanwhile, an Arab diplomat and a Palestinian official told the Times of Israel that approximately a dozen Palestinians received formal invitations on January 13 to serve on the technocratic committee that will manage Gaza’s daily affairs in place of Hamas. Two technocrats who received the letters said the invitations were signed by Nikolay Mladenov in his capacity as the High Representative appointed by the “Peace Board.”
Reports suggest the US informed interlocutors last month that leaders from Egypt, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Germany had committed to joining the “Peace Board” alongside Trump.
The technocratic committee will be headed by Ali Shaath, who previously served as the Palestinian Authority’s deputy minister of transportation. Shaath is originally from Gaza but currently resides in the West Bank. Iyad Abu Ramadan, president of the Gaza Chamber of Commerce, was also among those who received a letter from Mladenov on Tuesday, requesting that he serve as the Commissioner for Economy, Trade, and Industry.
Abu Ramadan expressed that he was “eager to begin work to alleviate the suffering of the people of Gaza.” His decision to speak openly to Israeli media under his own name has been viewed as a notable development. An Arab diplomat noted that the US is working to persuade Israel to accept a series of steps—including the reopening of the Rafah crossing—to provide the technocratic committee with an initial boost of legitimacy.
Middle East
Iran to receive hundreds of Chinese shoulder-fired missiles within weeks, sources say
Iran is expected to receive its first shipment of 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air defense missile systems within weeks as it seeks to rebuild its air defenses amid an ongoing war with the US.
Three sources with knowledge of the agreement disclosed the information to Reuters.
Valued at between $60 million and $70 million, the purchase represents one of Tehran’s largest known efforts to bolster its short-range air defense capabilities since the outbreak of hostilities with the US and Israel.
According to the sources, the contract covers between 300 and 400 man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, including Chinese-made QW-12 and FN-16 missiles.
The deal was signed with Hong Kong-based Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, which reportedly acted as an intermediary between the Iranian side and the Chinese supplier.
Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not yet responded to a request for comment from Reuters regarding the information provided by the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued the following statement:
“The relevant reports are completely baseless. China has consistently played a role in promoting peace and bringing an end to the conflict.”
Beijing-based Zhong Qing Bao Shang Group, the parent company of Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent on Tuesday.
Iran needs to rearm following months of conflict during which the US and Israel struck facilities tied to its missile, drone, and air defense programs. Tehran responded to those attacks with salvos of ballistic missiles and drones.
The fighting demonstrated the difficulty of defending static military and strategic installations against advanced fighter jets and precision-guided munitions.
Washington abruptly halted its two-week bombing campaign on Saturday. However, US President Donald Trump said attacks would resume if negotiations aimed at ending the five-month war—which has theoretically been under a ceasefire since April—fail.
The delivery of hundreds of MANPADS systems would significantly expand Iran’s inventory of short-range air defense weapons.
However, the sources cautioned that while the agreement has been signed, the delivery schedule, quantities, and other operational details remain subject to change.
Under the plan agreed upon by the parties, initial deliveries will be transported by air from the western Chinese city of Urumqi before being routed through Pakistan to Iran. The sources did not clarify whether transport following the transit through Pakistan would occur by air or land.
The Pakistani military’s public relations wing, ISPR, said in a statement:
“Allegations that Pakistan is playing a role in the supply of air defense weapons from China to Iran are completely fabricated and contrary to fact.”
Two Western intelligence sources and an Iranian official said Tehran is also exploring the option of using overland routes to transport Chinese-made military equipment and dual-use components more covertly, reducing the risk of shipments being intercepted.
The procurement process underscores how the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to rely on a combination of domestic arms production and foreign suppliers, despite years of sanctions and defense import restrictions.
Reuters previously reported, citing individuals familiar with the discussions, that Iran was close to concluding a separate deal to purchase anti-ship cruise missiles from China. Reuters was unable to confirm whether that agreement was finalized.
Middle East
Saudi crude exports from Yanbu plunge 40% as Yemeni strikes force reliance on costlier routes
Crude oil shipments from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast have dropped by 40% over the past few days.
According to data published on July 26 by maritime intelligence firm Vortexa, the Riyadh administration has begun utilizing the SUMED pipeline in Egypt and alternative transit routes in an effort to bypass the naval blockade declared by forces aligned with Sanaa.
The sharp decline in shipment volumes follows retaliatory operations and the enforcement of a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia by the Yemeni Armed Forces, operating under the Ansarallah movement.
Riyadh has maintained military strikes and blockade measures against Yemen for nearly 12 years.
A Sunday report by maritime intelligence firm Windward, drawing on Vortexa data, noted that Saudi Arabia has established a new logistical framework to maintain its export flows. “Saudi Arabia has created an alternative export route functioning via the SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope,” the report stated. The agency reported that this shift has driven up transportation costs by approximately $9 per barrel.
The market analysis report provided the following assessment regarding the operational mechanics of the transition:
“Saudi crude shipments have not stopped; they have been split into two distinct routes. Tankers berthing at Yanbu Port are now operating with their AIS signals completely turned off. Vessels are concealing their locations to avoid inclusion on Ansarallah’s target list. Saudi Arabia has established an alternative export route operating via the SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope. Although this route increases costs and transit times, it demonstrates that the market is capable of adapting to changing conditions.”
Saudi Arabia previously activated a similar alternative route via Yanbu during the initial phase of the US-Israel war, following Iran’s first blockade measures directed at the Strait of Hormuz.
At the time of the Windward report’s release, satellite imagery published by SoarAtlas revealed the ongoing situation at Saudi Aramco’s Jizan Oil Refinery. Massive fires triggered by attacks carried out by the Yemeni Armed Forces were shown to be persisting at the $12 billion facility. Images captured on Saturday documented dense black smoke continuing to billow from a giant oil storage tank at the site.
The Yemeni Armed Forces publicly announced their latest military operations against Saudi Arabia on July 25. They stated that the strikes were executed in response to the Saudi-led coalition resuming aerial bombardments against the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah.
An official statement issued by the Yemeni military under the Ansarallah-led administration provided the following details:
“In response to this overt and criminal aggression, the Yemeni Armed Forces carried out two specialized military operations. In the first operation, sensitive Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan were targeted with dozens of ballistic missiles and drones. In the second operation, sensitive Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu were struck using ballistic and cruise missiles alongside unmanned aerial vehicles.”
Spokespersons for the Yemeni military emphasized that the strikes were “precise” and “direct,” while residents in the city of Yanbu were reported to have heard explosions over the weekend. In the early hours of Saturday, Saudi airstrikes had targeted fuel storage facilities and telecommunications infrastructure in Hodeidah.
Mahdi al-Mashat, President of the Ansarallah Supreme Political Council, issued a warning to the Saudi Arabian leadership in a statement on July 27. “We say to the Saudi enemy that those offering you false hopes will be of no avail. Anything short of an end to the aggression and the complete lifting of the blockade is mere fantasy,” al-Mashat said.
In line with their naval blockade decision, the Yemeni Armed Forces have also targeted two Saudi oil tankers with missiles in recent days. The Sanaa administration officially initiated its maritime restrictions on July 20 under the stated principle of “a blockade for a blockade.”
This latest phase of heightened tension began in early July when Saudi Arabia launched an airstrike targeting Sanaa International Airport for the first time after a prolonged hiatus. Yemeni forces responded by striking Abha Airport in Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones. The attack marked the Yemeni military’s first direct retaliatory strike inside Saudi territory since 2021.
The Saudi-led coalition initially intervened in Yemen in 2015 after Ansarallah took control of the capital, Sanaa, and ousted the Riyadh-backed government. The United Arab Emirates joined as a principal coalition partner, while the UK, the US, and Israel provided logistical support.
During peace negotiations conducted between Saudi Arabia and Yemen in 2023, the parties came close to a final agreement before talks stalled. Nevertheless, those contacts effectively served to freeze large-scale combat operations for an extended period.
The air and sea blockade enforced by Saudi Arabia for over a decade has deepened the humanitarian crisis, particularly due to commercial flight restrictions imposed on Sanaa International Airport. These measures have prevented critically ill and injured civilians from traveling abroad for medical treatment, while the coalition’s military intervention has driven widespread famine and resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. Prior to Riyadh’s latest airstrikes, Yemeni forces had been conducting a general mobilization aimed at expelling coalition elements from the country.
Middle East
Pentagon faces severe budget crunch as Middle East operational costs drain key military funds
The US Department of Defense is facing a severe budgetary shortfall driven by the escalation of the war with Iran, according to current and former American officials cited by The Washington Post.
Officials noted that funding for several critical areas could be completely exhausted in the coming weeks. Budgets allocated for this year’s operations of the Navy and Air Force, which have deployed warships and aviation assets to the Middle East, are projected to run out by the end of July.
To cover the funding deficit expected before the start of fiscal year 2027 on October 1, the Pentagon is internally redirecting its budgetary resources. Under this approach, military exercises and training sessions designed to maintain troop combat readiness are being scaled back or canceled. Additionally, funds originally allocated for the maintenance and repair of military equipment and facilities are being transferred to operational expenses.
In recent weeks, the Department of Defense requested permission from Congress to shift $4.3 billion—initially allocated for personnel training and weapons procurement—to cover emergency requirements. However, no decision has yet been made regarding this request.
The White House has also requested that Congress allocate $67 billion in emergency supplemental funding to cover military expenditures. Despite this, the House of Representatives plans to begin a one-month recess on Thursday, which will delay any decision on the funding for at least several weeks.
“Everyone needs to look at this situation and shake off the complacency,” said Representative Pat Harrigan, a Republican from North Carolina, commenting on the development.
Pentagon Spokesperson Sean Parnell emphasized the critical importance of defense funding, stating that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will do everything necessary to maintain the combat readiness of the armed forces.
Secretary Hegseth and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, are scheduled to present the justification for the funding allocation at an upcoming hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. Russell Vought, the Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, is also among those scheduled to testify before the committee.
Vought stated last month that the cost of the war had reached approximately $30 billion. However, this White House calculation did not include the cost of rebuilding and repairing US bases damaged as a result of Iranian attacks in the Middle East.
Current and former officials warn that if Congress fails to act, military leadership will soon be forced to make even deeper compromises.
In closed-door discussions, Pentagon officials are expressing more profound anxieties. They emphasize that supplemental funding is urgently required to replenish munitions stockpiles, which are vital for deterring adversaries such as Russia and China.
The US defense budget for this year stands at approximately $1 trillion. This figure includes $150 billion in one-time funding approved by Congress last year for various priority goals, ranging from designing advanced weapons systems to stimulating the domestic defense industry. Meanwhile, the Donald Trump administration has requested a $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027.
Internal Pentagon assessments indicate that when accounting for base repairs, the replacement of destroyed aircraft, and the replenishment of munitions stockpiles, the total cost of the Iran war could rise to between $80 billion and $100 billion, according to reporting by NBC. Sources state that the repair costs for US military facilities in Bahrain alone could reach $1 billion.
Senators are expected to question Hegseth on the collapse of the ceasefire, rising war costs, and the American service members who lost their lives in Jordan, Bloomberg reported.
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