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Trump administration to unveil new Gaza governance structure led by Nikolay Mladenov

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The Trump administration is moving into the “second phase” of its regional strategy, preparing to unveil a new governance structure for Gaza on Wednesday, January 14, following a series of prolonged delays.

US and Israeli officials tasked with managing the fragile ceasefire insist that progress is achievable, despite the controversial track record of the same individuals involved in the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). The GHF was a previous aid distribution initiative that largely failed after Israeli forces repeatedly opened fire on its designated access routes.

Sources familiar with the plans told the Financial Times (FT) that, following the announcement by senior officials, the administration aims to achieve “quick wins” with Israeli backing. These objectives include the full reopening of the Rafah border crossing into Egypt, the provision of expanded medical support for Palestinians, and the easing of import restrictions on goods entering the Gaza Strip.

According to individuals close to the matter, Nikolay Mladenov, the former Bulgarian defense minister and UN envoy, will be named “High Representative” for the divided territory. Mladenov, a respected diplomat who was not involved with the GHF, will oversee the daily governance operations of a 14-member committee of Palestinian technocrats.

Sources noted that the official announcement of a “Peace Board,” to be led by President Donald Trump and other world leaders, will be deferred for the time being. However, the White House plans to announce an executive committee for the general “board,” comprising key international actors, including US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and the primary architect of the administration’s Gaza policy.

The timing of these announcements may be influenced by Trump’s pending decision on whether to launch military action against Iran.

The next steps in the “second phase” of the ceasefire involve deploying Palestinian technocrats to Gaza to assume control of civil affairs from Hamas, as outlined in the US-brokered ceasefire agreement signed last October that ended two years of conflict.

“We need to demonstrate that they can succeed,” said one regional diplomat, referring to the technocratic committee. However, several individuals familiar with the plans cautioned that significant obstacles remain. Western and Muslim nations remain hesitant to provide peacekeeping forces or funding while Israeli forces occupy half of the territory and Hamas maintains tight control over the other half.

A regional diplomat estimated that tens of billions of dollars are required for reconstruction, yet only $1 billion has been raised to date. US officials, who intend to use this month’s Davos Economic Forum to drum up financial and political support for the Gaza plans, identified the primary hurdles as the uncertainty surrounding the disarmament of Hamas and the Israeli government’s refusal to accept large-scale reconstruction or further troop withdrawals without such disarmament.

Last week, Mladenov traveled to Israel to meet with senior US and Israeli officials, including Benjamin Netanyahu. Present at the Prime Minister’s Office on Thursday were several figures responsible for Gaza’s post-war transition, including Miroslav Zafirov, Mladenov’s chief aide and a former Bulgarian and UN diplomat with extensive Middle East experience.

On the “American” side of the table sat the two Bulgarians alongside Aryeh Lightstone, a senior US envoy leading the Gaza team in Israel, and Liran Tancman, an Israeli tech entrepreneur and former reservist serving as a voluntary advisor to the US team. Facing them on the “Israeli” side were Michael Eisenberg, an Israeli-American venture capitalist advising Netanyahu on Gaza and US policy, and General Roman Gofman, the Prime Minister’s military secretary, who is slated to lead the Mossad intelligence agency later this year.

Sources indicated that all four US and Israeli officials played pivotal roles in planning and promoting the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which operated alongside US private military companies to secure food distribution points in Israeli-controlled areas of Gaza last year. According to GHF insiders and associates, Lightstone worked to secure funding and international backing, while Eisenberg, Tancman, and Gofman developed and advanced the concept within the Israeli establishment.

The private aid distribution plan was linked to attempts to undermine Hamas’s administrative and economic grip on Gaza, a goal that largely failed.

Critics of the US-led “second phase” initiative, including Israeli and Western officials and analysts, argue that the latest plans are detached from the political and security realities on the ground in Gaza. They contend that the small team of US and Israeli officials—consisting of diplomats, businessmen, and informal advisors—is highly ambitious but lacks localized expertise and is overly aligned with Netanyahu’s right-wing administration.

This group has developed an audacious 32-page blueprint titled “Project Sunrise,” a $112 billion plan to redevelop Gaza into a futuristic, AI-powered luxury enclave within a decade. “They are focused on ‘Sunrise’ and are working backward, but there is nothing in between to get there from the current situation [in Gaza],” said one individual involved in Gaza affairs.

A regional diplomat remarked that the group behind the “Sunrise” plan “thinks the sun has risen just because they woke up.” However, the diplomat added, “This is the only option… You can say it’s a bad plan or an insufficient plan, but until someone comes up with a better idea, this is what will happen.”

Two Israeli officials stated that the recent planning reflects the unconventional style Trump has adopted in his second term, where policy is driven by private-sector businessmen utilizing tech-industry methodologies and “informal-official” envoys. This group of US and Israeli civilian officials has effectively bypassed the influence of the Civil-Military Coordination Center, the US-led military headquarters in southern Israel established after last October’s ceasefire.

Meanwhile, an Arab diplomat and a Palestinian official told the Times of Israel that approximately a dozen Palestinians received formal invitations on January 13 to serve on the technocratic committee that will manage Gaza’s daily affairs in place of Hamas. Two technocrats who received the letters said the invitations were signed by Nikolay Mladenov in his capacity as the High Representative appointed by the “Peace Board.”

Reports suggest the US informed interlocutors last month that leaders from Egypt, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Germany had committed to joining the “Peace Board” alongside Trump.

The technocratic committee will be headed by Ali Shaath, who previously served as the Palestinian Authority’s deputy minister of transportation. Shaath is originally from Gaza but currently resides in the West Bank. Iyad Abu Ramadan, president of the Gaza Chamber of Commerce, was also among those who received a letter from Mladenov on Tuesday, requesting that he serve as the Commissioner for Economy, Trade, and Industry.

Abu Ramadan expressed that he was “eager to begin work to alleviate the suffering of the people of Gaza.” His decision to speak openly to Israeli media under his own name has been viewed as a notable development. An Arab diplomat noted that the US is working to persuade Israel to accept a series of steps—including the reopening of the Rafah crossing—to provide the technocratic committee with an initial boost of legitimacy.

Middle East

US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt

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The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.

The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.

Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.

Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.

A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.

Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.

A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”

This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.

An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”

The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”

“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.

The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.

The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.

A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.

In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”

The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.

The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.

Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.

Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.

In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.

Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.

This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.

Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.

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Middle East

Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks

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Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.

This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.

United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.

Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.

The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.

Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.

Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.

“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.

Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.

The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.

Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.

Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.

Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.

Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.

The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.

Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.

Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”

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Middle East

Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.

Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.

Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.

The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.

The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”

Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.

Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.

Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”

Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.

According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:

“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”

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