Middle East
Trump administration to unveil new Gaza governance structure led by Nikolay Mladenov
The Trump administration is moving into the “second phase” of its regional strategy, preparing to unveil a new governance structure for Gaza on Wednesday, January 14, following a series of prolonged delays.
US and Israeli officials tasked with managing the fragile ceasefire insist that progress is achievable, despite the controversial track record of the same individuals involved in the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). The GHF was a previous aid distribution initiative that largely failed after Israeli forces repeatedly opened fire on its designated access routes.
Sources familiar with the plans told the Financial Times (FT) that, following the announcement by senior officials, the administration aims to achieve “quick wins” with Israeli backing. These objectives include the full reopening of the Rafah border crossing into Egypt, the provision of expanded medical support for Palestinians, and the easing of import restrictions on goods entering the Gaza Strip.
According to individuals close to the matter, Nikolay Mladenov, the former Bulgarian defense minister and UN envoy, will be named “High Representative” for the divided territory. Mladenov, a respected diplomat who was not involved with the GHF, will oversee the daily governance operations of a 14-member committee of Palestinian technocrats.
Sources noted that the official announcement of a “Peace Board,” to be led by President Donald Trump and other world leaders, will be deferred for the time being. However, the White House plans to announce an executive committee for the general “board,” comprising key international actors, including US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and the primary architect of the administration’s Gaza policy.
The timing of these announcements may be influenced by Trump’s pending decision on whether to launch military action against Iran.
The next steps in the “second phase” of the ceasefire involve deploying Palestinian technocrats to Gaza to assume control of civil affairs from Hamas, as outlined in the US-brokered ceasefire agreement signed last October that ended two years of conflict.
“We need to demonstrate that they can succeed,” said one regional diplomat, referring to the technocratic committee. However, several individuals familiar with the plans cautioned that significant obstacles remain. Western and Muslim nations remain hesitant to provide peacekeeping forces or funding while Israeli forces occupy half of the territory and Hamas maintains tight control over the other half.
A regional diplomat estimated that tens of billions of dollars are required for reconstruction, yet only $1 billion has been raised to date. US officials, who intend to use this month’s Davos Economic Forum to drum up financial and political support for the Gaza plans, identified the primary hurdles as the uncertainty surrounding the disarmament of Hamas and the Israeli government’s refusal to accept large-scale reconstruction or further troop withdrawals without such disarmament.
Last week, Mladenov traveled to Israel to meet with senior US and Israeli officials, including Benjamin Netanyahu. Present at the Prime Minister’s Office on Thursday were several figures responsible for Gaza’s post-war transition, including Miroslav Zafirov, Mladenov’s chief aide and a former Bulgarian and UN diplomat with extensive Middle East experience.
On the “American” side of the table sat the two Bulgarians alongside Aryeh Lightstone, a senior US envoy leading the Gaza team in Israel, and Liran Tancman, an Israeli tech entrepreneur and former reservist serving as a voluntary advisor to the US team. Facing them on the “Israeli” side were Michael Eisenberg, an Israeli-American venture capitalist advising Netanyahu on Gaza and US policy, and General Roman Gofman, the Prime Minister’s military secretary, who is slated to lead the Mossad intelligence agency later this year.
Sources indicated that all four US and Israeli officials played pivotal roles in planning and promoting the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which operated alongside US private military companies to secure food distribution points in Israeli-controlled areas of Gaza last year. According to GHF insiders and associates, Lightstone worked to secure funding and international backing, while Eisenberg, Tancman, and Gofman developed and advanced the concept within the Israeli establishment.
The private aid distribution plan was linked to attempts to undermine Hamas’s administrative and economic grip on Gaza, a goal that largely failed.
Critics of the US-led “second phase” initiative, including Israeli and Western officials and analysts, argue that the latest plans are detached from the political and security realities on the ground in Gaza. They contend that the small team of US and Israeli officials—consisting of diplomats, businessmen, and informal advisors—is highly ambitious but lacks localized expertise and is overly aligned with Netanyahu’s right-wing administration.
This group has developed an audacious 32-page blueprint titled “Project Sunrise,” a $112 billion plan to redevelop Gaza into a futuristic, AI-powered luxury enclave within a decade. “They are focused on ‘Sunrise’ and are working backward, but there is nothing in between to get there from the current situation [in Gaza],” said one individual involved in Gaza affairs.
A regional diplomat remarked that the group behind the “Sunrise” plan “thinks the sun has risen just because they woke up.” However, the diplomat added, “This is the only option… You can say it’s a bad plan or an insufficient plan, but until someone comes up with a better idea, this is what will happen.”
Two Israeli officials stated that the recent planning reflects the unconventional style Trump has adopted in his second term, where policy is driven by private-sector businessmen utilizing tech-industry methodologies and “informal-official” envoys. This group of US and Israeli civilian officials has effectively bypassed the influence of the Civil-Military Coordination Center, the US-led military headquarters in southern Israel established after last October’s ceasefire.
Meanwhile, an Arab diplomat and a Palestinian official told the Times of Israel that approximately a dozen Palestinians received formal invitations on January 13 to serve on the technocratic committee that will manage Gaza’s daily affairs in place of Hamas. Two technocrats who received the letters said the invitations were signed by Nikolay Mladenov in his capacity as the High Representative appointed by the “Peace Board.”
Reports suggest the US informed interlocutors last month that leaders from Egypt, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Germany had committed to joining the “Peace Board” alongside Trump.
The technocratic committee will be headed by Ali Shaath, who previously served as the Palestinian Authority’s deputy minister of transportation. Shaath is originally from Gaza but currently resides in the West Bank. Iyad Abu Ramadan, president of the Gaza Chamber of Commerce, was also among those who received a letter from Mladenov on Tuesday, requesting that he serve as the Commissioner for Economy, Trade, and Industry.
Abu Ramadan expressed that he was “eager to begin work to alleviate the suffering of the people of Gaza.” His decision to speak openly to Israeli media under his own name has been viewed as a notable development. An Arab diplomat noted that the US is working to persuade Israel to accept a series of steps—including the reopening of the Rafah crossing—to provide the technocratic committee with an initial boost of legitimacy.
Middle East
Qatar and UAE LNG tankers go dark in Strait of Hormuz to evade security risks
Qatar and United Arab Emirates liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers are turning off their transponders in the Strait of Hormuz, shifting their logistical strategies in response to ongoing military conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the strategic waterway.
According to a Bloomberg report citing industry sources and vessel-tracking data, as time and patience run thin for both nations, tankers have begun operating under radio silence to conceal their movements and secure their LNG shipments.
The report noted that neither Qatar nor Abu Dhabi, the federal emirate of the UAE, is subject to international sanctions. Despite this, state-owned QatarEnergy and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) are employing these “going dark” tactics to minimize security risks for their vessels and crews transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Vessel-tracking data revealed that in May, at least four Qatari LNG vessels and four tankers linked to Abu Dhabi-based ADNOC transited the Strait of Hormuz without transmitting tracking signals. Sources speaking to Bloomberg stated that Qatari authorities requested captains of state-owned and chartered tankers to turn off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders when navigating around the Ras Laffan port—the world’s largest LNG export terminal—as well as when transiting or exiting the Persian Gulf.
The implemented security measures extend beyond turning off transponders. Sources reported that vessels have been instructed to transit the gulf in pairs to enhance security, and tanker captains who refused to comply with the “shadow” navigation protocols have been replaced.
Industry sources speaking to Bloomberg warned that the increase in covert transits undermines the fundamental rules of international maritime trade and transforms these shipping routes into high-risk areas.
They emphasized that until recently, every cargo in the LNG sector could be tracked in real time, but these newly adopted tactics have eliminated that transparency.
Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at energy consultancy MST Marquee, commented on the situation, saying: “It is entirely natural for Persian Gulf LNG producers to try to avoid Iranian attacks and consequently adopt shadow fleet methods. This could persist as long as Iran continues to control and threaten transits through the Strait of Hormuz. This practice may continue for a long time even after a peace agreement is signed.”
Following the start of US and Israeli attacks on Iran, the Tehran government closed the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for approximately 20% of global oil shipments and 30% of global liquefied natural gas.
After negotiations in Islamabad failed, US President Donald Trump announced on April 13 that he would impose a blockade on Iranian ports. In late May, he announced that the blockade was lifted as part of the planned peace treaty process with Tehran.
Middle East
Israeli defense exports hit record $19.2 billion fueled by regional conflicts
The Israeli Ministry of Defense has announced that international demand for military systems manufactured in the country and deployed in regional conflicts has reached unprecedented levels.
In an official statement, the ministry declared that exports of military equipment and weaponry have hit an all-time high for the fifth consecutive year.
According to the disclosed data, export volume reached $19.2 billion in 2025, representing an approximate 30% increase compared to the previous year. The figures demonstrate that the country’s defense exports have doubled over the past five years and quadrupled over the past decade.
Data shared by the ministry indicates that missile, rocket, and air defense systems secured the largest share of military sales contracts signed throughout 2025.
Sales in this sector accounted for 29% of the total trade volume. The ministry noted that the vast majority of these agreements fell into the category of “mega-contracts”—each valued at a minimum of $100 million—and that these large-scale deals constituted 53% of the total export volume.
The Ministry of Defense directly attributed this export growth to ongoing regional military operations.
The statement argued that global demand was driven by results achieved on the ground and the “combat-proven” performance of Israeli-made systems across all fronts, including the “Rising Lion” operation launched against Iran in June 2025.
Since October 7, 2023, Israel has conducted simultaneous military operations across multiple fronts in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.
The military equipment and ammunition described as “combat-tested” in the ministry’s report continue to be deployed in active conflict zones, most notably in Lebanon.
Among the defense firms highlighted during this period is the Israel-based company Xtend, which has drawn attention for its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Systems developed by the company have reportedly been utilized in operations in Gaza and for targeted assassinations. International reports revealed that an Xtend UAV was used to locate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed in October 2024.
Earlier in the year, Eric Trump, son of US President Donald Trump, announced that he would make significant investments in Xtend’s technology and support the company’s merger with the Florida-based JFB Construction Holdings.
Meanwhile, airstrikes and bombings conducted by the Israeli military continue to drive up civilian casualties in Gaza and Lebanon. In Lebanon alone, attacks over the past few months have claimed more than 3,400 lives. Thousands of deaths have also been reported in US-backed military operations carried out in Iran.
Studies published in the medical journal The Lancet project that the total death toll in Gaza, when including both direct and indirect fatalities, could reach hundreds of thousands.
During this period, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has supported Israel’s operations, emerged as one of the largest buyers of Israeli-origin weapons.
The Gulf nation is reported to have procured billions of dollars in military equipment from Israel over the past five years. According to US sources, the Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv administrations have established a joint fund to develop and procure new weapons systems.
On the other hand, as Tel Aviv continues to market its air defense systems globally, military tensions along the Lebanese border persist.
Hizbullah kamikaze drones have reportedly targeted Iron Dome batteries positioned at Israeli locations near the Lebanese border. The Israeli military has reportedly faced difficulties intercepting these attacks, with dozens of Israeli soldiers killed in Hizbullah strikes launched since March 2.
Middle East
Report challenges official assessments of damage from Iranian attacks on US military assets
BBC Verify, the verification unit of the BBC, published a detailed investigation on June 1 based on satellite imagery and video analysis that found Iranian retaliatory strikes had successfully hit and damaged at least 20 US military facilities across the Middle East since the start of the war launched against Iran by the United States and Israel.
The findings suggest that the scale and accuracy of Iran’s retaliatory attacks were significantly greater than previously acknowledged by US officials. Some independent analysts estimate that the number of affected bases may be as high as 28.
The military facilities targeted were reportedly spread across eight Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain and Oman.
Material losses in the region are said to include three THAAD missile defense batteries, each valued at approximately $1 billion and regarded as a cornerstone of the regional defense network.
Expert assessments also identified at least 42 aircraft that were destroyed or severely damaged, including F-35 fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper drones and an E-3 Sentry airborne early warning and surveillance aircraft valued at $700 million.
According to military analysts, Iran achieved these results by altering its tactics. Rather than relying on large-scale, high-volume barrages, Tehran reportedly shifted to using smaller, more precise salvos concentrated on high-value infrastructure targets.
The shift in strategy was said to have exploited what was described as a degree of complacency within the US military during the early stages of the conflict.
US military commanders reportedly failed to relocate aircraft and other military assets at strategic installations such as Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia despite previous attacks on those facilities, a factor that is said to have increased losses. Commenting on the strikes, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that the Middle East was no longer a “safe place” for US bases.
The White House had previously claimed that Iran’s military capabilities had been almost entirely eliminated.
However, the Pentagon’s latest estimates place the cost of the war at $29 billion.
A substantial portion of that expenditure is reportedly being directed toward repairing heavily damaged military equipment and replenishing significantly depleted munitions stockpiles. Former military officials have warned that damaged air defense systems in the region “cannot be replaced quickly or easily.”
The heavy consumption of interceptor missiles during the conflict has also left other US facilities across the Gulf increasingly vulnerable to future Iranian precision-guided missile attacks, according to the assessments cited.
The Washington administration is also reported to have sought restrictions on satellite imagery providers in an effort to conceal the extent of the damage and limit criticism.
However, the “smoking craters” and flattened aircraft hangars featured in the BBC report appear to contradict official US assertions, illustrating what the report described as the true scale of the destruction on the ground.
Iran also announced that it struck a US air base in Kuwait with missiles and drones on Sunday night in retaliation for attacks by US forces on Iranian military targets over the weekend, which Tehran said constituted a violation of the ceasefire.
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