America
Trump caught between hawks, markets, and his base as Iran war drags past initial timeline
A complex power struggle is playing out inside the White House. As advisers clash over when and how to declare “victory” in a conflict that has spread across West Asia, their competing counsel is shaping the increasingly erratic public statements Donald Trump makes about the course of his Iran war.
Interviews conducted by Reuters with an adviser close to Trump and with sources familiar with the decision-making process offer a previously unpublished account of how the administration is navigating what has become the largest US military operation since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Nearly two weeks after fighting began, the conflict has rattled global financial markets and disrupted international oil trade.
The stakes are extraordinarily high for a president who, upon returning to office last year, pledged to avoid “unnecessary military entanglements.”
While competition for Trump’s ear is a recurring feature of his presidency, what hangs in the balance this time is war and peace in one of the world’s most volatile and economically consequential regions.
The message shifts, the markets swing
Since launching the war on Feb. 28 with an expansive set of stated objectives, Trump has in recent days progressively retreated from those goals, recasting the conflict as “a limited operation that is largely complete.”
That message, however, has yet to hold. Energy markets continue to swing with each Trump statement.
At a rally in Kentucky on Wednesday, Trump declared, “We won the war,” before immediately pivoting. “But we don’t want to leave too early, do we?” he added. “We need to finish the job.”
The economy sends alarm signals
Economic advisers — including officials from the Treasury Department and the National Economic Council — have warned Trump that the oil shock and surging gasoline prices could rapidly erode domestic public support for the war, according to sources. Political advisers are pressing similar arguments.
White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and her deputy James Blair are urging Trump to define victory “narrowly” and to emphasize that the operation appears limited and nearly concluded, with particular attention to the political fallout of high fuel prices.
The hawks hold the line
On a separate front, hawkish voices are pressing Trump to maintain military pressure on Iran. That camp includes Republican Senators Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton, along with commentator Mark Levin.
These figures argue that the US must prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and must respond forcefully to attacks against American troops and maritime shipping.
A third pressure track comes from Trump’s populist base. Strategist Steve Bannon and right-wing broadcaster Tucker Carlson have been conveying to Trump that the US must not be dragged into a new, protracted “Middle East war.”
An adviser close to Trump distilled the dynamic with striking clarity: “Trump is letting the hawks believe the campaign is ongoing, wants the markets to think the war could be ending soon, and is trying to show his own base that the escalation will remain contained.”
In response to requests for comment, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “This report is based on gossip and speculation from anonymous sources who have not even been in any meetings with President Trump. The president is a good listener and takes in the views of many people, but he is the one who makes the final call and sets the best message. The president’s entire team is focused on fully achieving the objectives of Operation Righteous Fury.”
Threading contradictory narratives
Trump offered scant public explanation when he took the country to war. The administration’s stated war aims have since shifted across a wide spectrum — from preventing an imminent Iranian attack, to crippling its nuclear programme, to effecting regime change.
Now seeking an exit from a conflict that lacks broad public support, Trump appears to be simultaneously sustaining contradictory narratives, according to some analysts — a balancing act made more treacherous by Iran’s continued resistance despite the devastating toll of US-Israeli airstrikes.
Political and economic advisers whose pre-war warnings about economic shock were largely dismissed have come to the fore this week. They appear to be playing a decisive role in Trump’s efforts to calm markets and limit the rise in oil and gas prices.
Trump’s characterization of the war as “a short-duration operation” and his insistence that the spike in gasoline prices is temporary are aimed at defusing anxiety over a prolonged conflict.
Some senior advisers have counseled Trump to work toward “a result he can present as a military victory,” according to sources — a scenario under which the war could be brought to a close even if much of Iran’s leadership survives and vestiges of its nuclear programme persist.
Limited gains on the ground, mounting costs at sea
A series of US and Israeli airstrikes has killed numerous senior Iranian officials. Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal, its navy, and its infrastructure have sustained damage, and its capacity to support proxy forces has been weakened.
But those military gains have been substantially overshadowed by Iran’s escalating attacks on oil tankers and transit facilities in the Gulf, which have driven crude prices higher.
Trump has stated that he alone will decide when the operation ends. He and his advisers privately acknowledge that it has extended well beyond the four-to-six-week timeframe initially announced. The shifting rationales for why the war began, combined with the conflict’s spread across more than half a dozen countries, make it increasingly difficult to predict what comes next.
In the assessment of analysts, Iran’s government will claim victory by asserting its survival in the face of the US-Israeli assault — a narrative that gains force wherever Iran can demonstrate that it has inflicted damage on Israel, the US, and their allies.
The Strait of Hormuz: The decisive test
The conflict’s central hinge point is the Strait of Hormuz. Under normal circumstances, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil shipments pass through that narrow waterway. Flow has now nearly ground to a halt.
Iran has in recent days targeted tankers in Iraqi waters and vessels near the strait; Mojtaba Khamenei, the newly installed supreme leader, has pledged to keep the waterway closed.
Should Iran’s stranglehold on the strait push gasoline prices sharply higher in the US, the resulting pressure on Republicans — who are fighting to preserve their razor-thin congressional majorities ahead of November’s midterm elections — could intensify demands on Trump to bring the war to an end.
Trump has lately been less vocal about the prospect of toppling the government in Tehran. US intelligence assesses that Iran’s leadership faces no imminent risk of collapse.
The cost of the Venezuela illusion
Some of the confusion surrounding the war’s trajectory may trace back to the swift military success the US achieved in Venezuela.
According to a source familiar with the administration’s thinking, some advisers struggled to convince Trump that the Iran operation would bear no resemblance to the Venezuela raid of Jan. 3.
In that operation, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was seized and Trump secured significant leverage over the country’s vast oil reserves without requiring a sustained military campaign. Iran has proved a far more formidable adversary — one with more advanced weapons and deeply entrenched religious and security institutions.
Analysts note that even as Trump has repeatedly insisted since June that the US-Israeli bombardment “destroyed” Iran’s nuclear programme, Trump’s own aides are pushing back against the claim that Iran was weeks away from producing a nuclear weapon.
It is believed that a significant portion of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile was buried during the June strikes; that material could theoretically be recovered, re-enriched, and brought to weapons grade. Iran has consistently denied pursuing a nuclear weapon.
Should the war drag on, American casualties mount, and economic costs escalate, some analysts believe those developments could erode support within Trump’s political base.
Yet despite criticism from some supporters who oppose military interventions, members of the Make America Great Again movement have, by and large, continued to back Trump’s Iran policy. Republican strategist Ford O’Connell summed up the dynamic: “The MAGA base will give the president room to maneuver.”
America
Israel looks to Latin America as Isaac Accords seek to expand regional partnerships
As ties between Israel and Latin American countries continue to deepen, the newly launched Isaac Accords are emerging as a framework for expanding cooperation across the region.
The initiative formed the backdrop to a panel discussion on opportunities for Israel in the Western Hemisphere at the 2026 JNS International Policy Summit in Jerusalem on Monday.
The panel, titled “The Coming Isaac Accords: Israel and Latin America,” brought together diplomats and regional experts to discuss developments that could encourage participation in the Isaac Accords, the strategic framework announced in April by Argentine President Javier Milei and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during Milei’s visit to Israel.
Moderated by JNS correspondent Etgar Lefkovits, the discussion featured Panama’s Ambassador to Israel Ezra Cohen, former US Ambassador to Costa Rica Fitzgerald Haney, and Leah Soibel, founder and CEO of Fuente Latina, which provides Middle East news coverage to Spanish-language media outlets.
Soibel said:
“What we need to understand is that the Isaac Accords have an impact that extends far beyond diplomacy. Twenty percent of the US population is Hispanic. By 2050, that figure is expected to reach 30% of the population. This is the demographic group with the lowest levels of antisemitic sentiment.”
The panel also celebrated the victory of pro-US and pro-Israel candidate Abelardo De La Espriella, who defeated his left-wing rival in Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday.
De La Espriella had made the restoration of relations with Israel and the relocation of his country’s embassy to Jerusalem central elements of his campaign platform.
Cohen said that when he looks at a map of Latin America, only four countries are currently governed by left-wing, anti-Israel administrations.
Referring to an earlier panel discussing what participants described as a bleak future for Jews in Europe, Cohen remarked: “When one window closes, another opens. Come to Latin America.”
Haney argued that “Israel’s friends keep winning” and predicted that “we are going to see a lot more positive developments coming out of Latin America.”
He said a colleague in Colombia had sent him a text message promising: “On August 7 at 5 p.m., we will restore relations with Israel.”
Haney noted that this was the date and time when Colombia’s new president is scheduled to take office and predicted that another announcement regarding the relocation of Colombia’s embassy to Jerusalem would follow.
He described Colombia as the latest in a series of Latin American countries turning toward Israel in pursuit of “shared values, shared prosperity and shared security.”
Haney also said that the Israel Allies Foundation, a pro-Israel advocacy group that works with lawmakers, would bring together representatives from 11 legislative bodies across Latin America in Buenos Aires over the weekend to sign a joint declaration of principles.
He noted that the organisation had successfully worked with Brazil’s legislature despite the position of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whom he described as anti-Israel.
According to Haney, Brazil’s legislature has developed a plan to deepen relations with Israel over the next nine months.
Soibel said that 12 Latin American countries had renewed or strengthened their friendships with Israel and that interest in Israel among Spanish-language content creators, influencers and journalists continues to grow. Her organisation has brought 300 non-Jewish Hispanic journalists to Israel.
The panel also highlighted the launch of a Panama-based Spanish-language edition of JNS. Soibel said the work of pro-Israel organisations remains vital because so few such groups operate in the region, while, in her words, “Iran, Qatar and Hezbollah are conducting propaganda campaigns in Spanish throughout Latin America.”
She continued:
“You could probably count on one hand, perhaps two, the number of organisations and leaders operating across the Spanish-speaking world. That makes this work extraordinarily strategic. Its impact is enormous. Israel and the Jewish people should invest more. There is a large Hispanic-Israeli population in Israel, and many of them were victims of the October 7 attacks. We have stories to tell. What we need now is investment and distribution channels to spread those messages and information.”
The panel concluded on an optimistic note, with participants expressing confidence that Latin America will become an increasingly important pillar of Israel’s global diplomatic strategy in the years ahead.
Milei and Netanyahu launch new accord
Argentine President Javier Milei and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the launch of the Isaac Accords last Saturday.
The initiative establishes a new strategic framework aimed at strengthening cooperation among Argentina, Israel and like-minded partners across the Western Hemisphere, described as “the descendants of Isaac and nations rooted in the Judeo-Christian tradition,” in defence of freedom and democracy and in the fight against terrorism, antisemitism and drug trafficking.
Participating countries will seek to strengthen coordination against what the agreement describes as terrorist organisations, with particular emphasis on “Iran’s efforts to expand terrorist networks and operational presence throughout the Western Hemisphere.”
The initiative also seeks to promote coordination and alignment in international forums while creating a framework for expanded cooperation in innovation, technology, trade and economic openness.
Speaking alongside Netanyahu at a joint press conference, Milei said:
“We expressed our unwavering support for the United States and Israel in their struggle against terrorism and the Iranian regime, not only because it is the right thing to do, but also because our countries are united through shared suffering.”
Milei referred to the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires and the 1994 attack on the AMIA Jewish community centre.
Although Argentine courts have attributed both attacks to Iran, Tehran has consistently denied any involvement.
Netanyahu praised the Argentine leader for demonstrating what he called “moral clarity” by standing with Israel and said he hoped other Latin American governments would join the Isaac Accords, which both leaders described as being inspired by the Abraham Accords.
The Abraham Accords, brokered by Washington in 2020, triggered a wave of normalisation in Arab-Israeli diplomatic relations.
US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee attended the signing ceremony and described Milei and Netanyahu as “President Trump’s two closest friends.”
Huckabee added: “I do not think there are two other world leaders whom our president respects as much and with whom he has such a personal relationship.”
During the visit, the two sides also announced the launch of the first direct commercial flights between Buenos Aires and Tel Aviv, scheduled to begin in November.
Milei said the new route would create an “unbreakable bond” between the two countries and reiterated his intention to relocate Argentina’s embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
“As soon as circumstances permit, we once again reaffirm our commitment to moving the Argentine embassy to Jerusalem,” he said.
America
Iran team leaves thank-you message in Los Angeles locker room after World Cup draw
Iran’s national football team left a message in its locker room at SoFi Stadium, thanking Los Angeles for its hospitality during the World Cup.
The players said they were leaving the city with honor after keeping their hopes of reaching the knockout stage alive with a 0-0 draw against Belgium.
In the handwritten note, published by the Iran Football Federation, the team wrote:
“From the ancient land of Persia thousands of years ago to the civilized Iran of today, the spirit of Iran remains alive and unshaken. Los Angeles, thank you for your hospitality. We arrived in Los Angeles with pride, competed with honor and leave with dignity.”
The note also thanked Iranian supporters who gave their “hearts, voices and souls” to the team throughout its two matches and concluded with a call for peace, respect and friendship among all nations.
Los Angeles hosted both of Iran’s Group G matches, while the team returned to its training base in Tijuana between games.
Iran has been based in Tijuana throughout the tournament and has had to travel back and forth to the United States for matches because of restrictions related to its stay in the country. Entry bans were also imposed on some members of the national team’s coaching staff and officials.
US authorities said the team’s travel arrangements remain under review, while discussions continue over the possible easing of some restrictions.
Iran head coach Emir Ghalenoei has repeatedly criticized the travel restrictions, saying his squad has faced challenges that no other team in the tournament has been required to endure.
After drawing 2-2 with New Zealand in its opening match at SoFi Stadium, Iran will play its final Group G match against Egypt in Seattle.
America
Colombia’s de la Espriella claims narrow presidential victory in runoff election
The first results from Colombia’s presidential runoff election showed that right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, backed by Donald Trump, had narrowly won the vote.
The victory of de la Espriella, who has no prior political experience, signals a fundamental shift in the government’s approach to tackling the country’s long-running internal armed conflict and rising violence.
Throughout the campaign, de la Espriella pledged to intensify military pressure on illegal armed groups, drug trafficking networks and criminal organizations. He succeeded in defeating left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda, a close ally of incumbent President Gustavo Petro.
Speaking after the initial results were released, de la Espriella said: “Today marks the beginning of a new era for our country. This era is built on the free and democratic will of millions of citizens who chose to believe in a great, secure, prosperous Colombia full of opportunities.”
Cepeda says he will await official results
According to the preliminary count, with more than 99% of ballots tallied in the runoff election, de la Espriella secured approximately 49.7% of the vote, while Cepeda received 48.7%.
Cepeda, who has not yet conceded defeat, said the preliminary results were neither official nor binding.
“When the official count is completed, the final results are known and the necessary verification procedures are finished, we will recognize the official outcome produced by that process,” Cepeda said.
Reuters reported that the verification process showed very little variation from the preliminary counts recorded during the first round of voting on May 31.
De la Espriella, who grew up in Colombia’s Caribbean region, drew particularly strong support from that part of the country. Addressing a large crowd gathered in the coastal city of Barranquilla after the first results emerged, de la Espriella, who has adopted the nickname “El Tigre” (The Tiger), declared: “Tonight is the beginning of a new story for the nation. Tonight a new era begins, a change of order begins.”
He said he would govern for all Colombians, including those who voted for his opponent, and pledged loyalty to and protection of Colombia’s 1991 constitution.
At celebrations in Barranquilla, supporters wore Colombia’s yellow national football jersey and waved Colombian flags.
With images of de la Espriella projected behind the stage, supporters chanted “Stand firm for the homeland” and “Petro out!” as fireworks lit the sky. Some supporters wore hats bearing the slogan “Make Colombia Great Again,” echoing those worn by supporters of US President Donald Trump.
Trump reacted to the results in a Truth Social post, writing: “BIG won!”
One supporter, Patricia, told reporters: “We are tired of the murders in this country and of this government’s bureaucracy. Now we finally have a president from the coastal region.”
Another supporter said: “We are proud of the Tiger. We hope he transforms the country and, above all, creates a new nation where we will have jobs and greater security.”
Supporters of Cepeda, who narrowly lost the election, also voiced concerns on the streets of Barranquilla.
Catalina La Grande, a student and activist who supports Cepeda, told the BBC: “There is a visible sense of unease in the air. Such a narrow margin worries us because it reflects how divided the country is and the enormous challenges we face in defending democracy, peace and human rights.”
Another young voter backing Cepeda, Maria, said the results showed a divided country but noted that the public had remained peaceful.
“Given the level of polarization we are experiencing, the absence of violence in the streets is a positive development,” she said.
The sharp divisions between the candidates have fueled concerns that unrest could emerge if some opposition groups refuse to accept the outcome.
Late on Sunday night, clashes were reported between protesters and police in Cali, Colombia’s third-largest city. Demonstrators reportedly burned US flags, while police used tear gas to disperse large crowds angered by de la Espriella’s victory.
President Gustavo Petro is also reported to be considering challenging the result. In a post on X, Petro said that based on the preliminary count, “no one can be declared president” and alleged that the security of some polling stations had been compromised. He called for an audit of the voting software but provided no evidence to support the claims.
Who is Abelardo de la Espriella?
De la Espriella, who has no political background, is a lawyer and businessman. During his legal career, he represented clients including Alex Saab, an ally of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro who has faced money laundering charges in the US, and David Murcia Guzman, one of Colombia’s most notorious fraudsters.
De la Espriella says he handled those cases in his capacity as a defense attorney.
Often compared to El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele because of his security policies and distinctive beard, de la Espriella and his supporters frequently wear Colombia’s national football jersey at rallies and on social media. Critics accuse him of politicizing the national team shirt.
He is also known for regularly addressing campaign crowds from behind bulletproof glass panels.
Colombia’s internal armed conflict has persisted for decades, but violence has intensified in recent years. Armed groups and criminal organizations, including dissident factions of the FARC, the ELN and the Clan del Golfo, have doubled their membership over the past five years.
Competition for control of lucrative cocaine trafficking routes and illegal mining operations has further escalated the violence. Fighting along the Colombia-Venezuela border last year displaced tens of thousands of people. Cocaine production in the world’s largest cocaine-producing country has reached record levels.
Critics of President Petro argue that his “total peace” strategy, which prioritizes negotiations with armed groups, has failed, claiming that such groups have used ceasefire arrangements to expand their territorial control and influence.
De la Espriella has pledged to cancel all negotiations with illegal armed groups and increase military pressure to restore order.
As part of that agenda, he has promised closer cooperation with the US, the construction of massive prisons in Colombia’s forests, a smaller state apparatus and reforms to the healthcare system.
Having lived and worked in Miami for many years, de la Espriella has held US citizenship since 2023. During the election campaign, he received support from Donald Trump, who said de la Espriella would “stop illegal migration, fight crime and drugs, and restore law and order.”
Before the election, Trump also said de la Espriella would feel “the full support and strength of the United States” behind him.
Although Colombia has historically been one of Washington’s closest allies in the region, relations have become strained in recent years due to sharp disagreements between President Trump and President Petro over migration policy, tariffs and military intervention in Latin America.
De la Espriella’s election also aligns with a broader trend across Latin America, where security concerns have pushed politics to the right. His victory was welcomed by other conservative leaders across the region.
Argentine President Javier Milei said Colombians had “chosen the path of economic freedom, prosperity and uncompromising security” and had declared that enough was enough to transnational organized crime and drug trafficking.
Chile’s José Antonio Kast said: “A new era of freedom is beginning for Colombia, one that will allow the country to regain security and prosperity.”
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