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Trump wants Europe increase defence spending: What does it mean for Europe?

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Calls from President Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte for increased European defense spending have ignited a debate among European leaders. Dr. Ingo Piepers, founder of Global4Cast, told Harici how this could reshape Europe’s path toward strategic autonomy.

Ahmetcan Uzlaşık, Brussels

On January 7, Donald Trump stated that NATO members should spend 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defence, marking a solid increase from the current 2% target. NATO Chief Mark Rutte also expressed his approval of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, by stating that his presidency would “turbo-charge defense spending and production” within the alliance.

NATO projected that 23 of its 32 member nations achieved the target of allocating 2% of their GDP to defense spending in 2024. However, no member, including the United States, currently dedicates as much as 5% of GDP to defense. Among the alliance, Poland leads with defense spending equivalent to 4.12% of its GDP, followed by Estonia at 3.43% and the United States at 3.38%, while Türkiye spends 2.09% of its GDP.

Eight of NATO’s 32 member countries fail to meet the alliance’s recommended defense spending target of 2% of GDP. Among them are Spain (1.28%), Slovenia (1.29%), Luxembourg (1.29%), and Belgium (1.30%), with slightly higher figures for Canada (1.37%), Italy (1.49%), Portugal (1.55%), and Croatia (1.81%).

Poland: The biggest spender

Poland’s Defence Minister has expressed support for Donald Trump’s call for NATO members to allocate 5% of their GDP to defense. He emphasized on January 12 that Poland “can be the transatlantic link between this challenge set by President Trump and its implementation in Europe.” As NATO’s largest relative spender, Poland currently dedicates 4.12% of its GDP to defense in 2024, with plans to increase this to 4.7% in 2025. Notably, Poland has recently taken over the EU Council presidency, with a strong focus on defense and security.

European Countries Grapple with NATO’s 5% Defense Spending Target

European countries are adopting varying stances on the ambitious 5% target proposed by Trump. While Germany has met NATO’s 2% defense spending target for 2024, it falls short of Trump’s demand for a 5% increase. Despite a significant boost in military spending since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany is facing budgetary constraints that complicate future funding, with a projected €16 billion budget gap for 2025.

In contrast, Baltic nations approach the issue more urgently. Lithuania has taken a bold step, committing to raise its defense spending to between 5-6% of GDP by 2026. Similarly, Estonia plans to spend 3.7% of its GDP on defense.

Sweden, which allocated 2.1% of GDP to defense last year, also supports increased spending, with Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard stressing that European countries must shoulder more defense costs. 

Meanwhile, France faces political uncertainty that could hinder its efforts to increase defense spending, while the U.K. has not outlined a specific timeline for meeting its 2.5% defense target by 2030. The Czech Republic recently announced it reached the 2% target for the first time, with Prime Minister Petr Fiala suggesting that 3% could be feasible in the coming years.

Italy plans to allocate 1.57% of its GDP to defense in 2025 and aims to reach 2% by 2028, far below Trump’s wishes. 

NATO members’ defence expenditure as share of GDP

Source: NATO, 2024

“Europe Must Take Responsibility for Its Own Security”

Dr. Ingo Piepers began the interview by criticizing Europe’s dependence on the United States for security and leadership. “It is high time for Europe to take responsibility and ensure its own security,” he said, describing this reliance as “increasingly unhealthy” and urging greater European autonomy.

Dr. Piepers pointed to a widening values gap between the U.S. and Europe, particularly under leadership such as Donald Trump’s. “The claim on Greenland is a prime example,” he noted, stressing the importance of Europe staying true to its principles and avoiding becoming “an instrument of a United States that disregards fundamental rights and agreements whenever it suits them.”

He also emphasized that Europe should have adopted a more critical and independent stance, particularly its support for Israel in Gaza and the occupied territories. “Europe must take responsibility for its own actions and ensure that the values it claims to represent are upheld in practice, rather than merely paying lip service to them,” Dr. Piepers added.

“Ambitious and Unrealistic”

Asked about Donald Trump’s suggestion that NATO countries meet or exceed 5% of GDP in defense spending, Dr. Piepers dismissed the proposal as “ambitious and, in many ways, unrealistic.” While acknowledging that European NATO members must take their defense responsibilities more seriously, he described the 5% target as “arbitrary and unsubstantiated.”

“It is essential to first conduct a comprehensive threat assessment to determine the actual requirements for European security. From this analysis, NATO’s strategy—including a stronger European pillar—must be adapted accordingly. Only then can realistic and justifiable spending goals be established,” he explained.

He argued that Europe’s focus should be on building a highly capable, largely autonomous European defense force within NATO. “Europe’s priority should be the development of a highly capable, largely autonomous European defense force within NATO,” he emphasized. This includes fostering interoperability, joint capabilities, and readiness rather than fragmenting investments at the national level.

Dr. Piepers pointed to Russia’s failure to capture Kyiv after nearly three years of war as a reminder of the importance of measured, strategic investments. “Strategic and measured investments are far more critical than a blanket 5% target,” he concluded.

“Trump’s Presidency Could Accelerate Europe’s Strategic Autonomy”

Dr. Ingo Piepers believes that the second term for Donald Trump would significantly push Europe toward pursuing strategic autonomy. “Trump’s transactional approach to alliances underscores the need for Europe to become more self-reliant,” he said, highlighting the urgency for Europe to rethink its dependence on U.S. leadership.

“A credible and cohesive defense strategy that addresses both conventional and hybrid threats is essential,” he explained. He noted that Europe must take on greater responsibility and assert its influence on the global stage. “Trump’s presidency should be seen as a catalyst for Europe to transition from dependence on U.S. leadership to a position of greater responsibility and influence within the international system” Dr. Piepers stated.

“A Roadmap for Europe’s Global Influence”

Dr. Ingo Piepers laid out actionable steps for the EU to enhance its global influence and reduce dependency on the United States:

Unify Foreign Policy

The EU must strengthen its ability to act decisively on the global stage by improving coordination among member states.” 

Address Internal Divisions

Political and economic stability within Europe is essential for projecting power externally. Addressing budgetary crises, leadership transitions, and divisions among member states will enhance Europe’s ability to act cohesively.”

Develop Independent Defense Capabilities

Europe must prioritize the development of a unified defense force that can operate independently of U.S. support. This includes investing in critical infrastructure, modernizing equipment, and enhancing the readiness of European forces.”

Build Strategic Alliances

The EU should deepen its relationships with like-minded nations and regional organizations, such as ASEAN and the African Union. Diversifying partnerships will reduce dependency on the United States and expand Europe’s global influence.”

Invest in Innovation

“By leading in areas such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and defense technologies, Europe can position itself as a global leader in innovation. This will also enhance its economic and security resilience.”

Dr. Piepers concluded, “Europe needs to seize this moment to take responsibility and redefine its role in the world. Only by acting decisively can it safeguard its interests in an increasingly complex global landscape.”

EUROPE

US officials’ visit to Greenland sparks controversy amid political tensions

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As negotiations to form a new government continue in Greenland, a Danish territory, following recent elections, senior officials from the Trump administration are scheduled to visit the island next week.

According to individuals familiar with the trip who spoke to the Financial Times (FT), US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, Usha Vance (wife of Vice Presidential candidate J.D. Vance), and the Secretaries of Defense and Energy will be in Greenland from Thursday to Saturday for a “private visit.”

A source familiar with the visit confirmed that Waltz and Energy Secretary Chris Wright will tour the US military installation, Pituffik Space Base, in Greenland.

Danish and Greenlandic officials have indicated they are open to an increased US presence on the island but are not receptive to a takeover of the base.

The FT reported that the visit has caused consternation among Greenlandic and Danish officials. Jens-Frederik Nielsen, the leader of Demokraatit, which won this month’s elections, stated that the timing of the visit, amidst ongoing coalition negotiations and local elections, “once again shows a lack of respect for the people of Greenland.”

Greenland’s outgoing Prime Minister, Múte Egede, added that the visit “cannot in any way be described as a harmless visit by the wife of a politician” and that its “sole purpose is a show of force against us.”

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to acquire the Arctic island and has even considered the possibility of using military force to take it over from the NATO ally. Trump’s eldest son, Donald Jr., also visited the island in January for a “private visit.”

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen responded to the new US visit, stating that it “cannot be seen independently of the public statements” made by Trump and other officials.

“As the Kingdom of Denmark, we want to cooperate with the Americans. But this must be a cooperation based on fundamental values such as sovereignty and respect between countries and peoples. We are serious about this issue,” Frederiksen said.

Trump and other US officials have hailed the results of the Greenlandic parliamentary elections, seemingly equating the voters’ preference for pro-independence parties with a desire for ‘Americanization.’ However, a recent poll showed that only 6% of Greenlanders want to join the US, while 85% are opposed.

All leaders of the current parties represented in the island’s parliament also condemned Trump’s behavior as “unacceptable.” Aaja Chemnitz, a Greenlandic member of the Danish parliament, told Danish television that the visit was an “untimely interference” in the island’s politics so soon after the elections.

“Anyone who tries to interfere but is not part of Greenlandic society should stay away. We are going through a particularly challenging period in Greenland’s history because we are very much affected by what is happening abroad,” Chemnitz said.

Martin Lidegaard, a former Danish minister and current opposition MP, said the visit crossed the acceptable line for both Denmark and Greenland.

“It will now be crucial for Denmark and Greenland to act together,” Lidegaard added.

Usha Vance’s office confirmed that she would be traveling with her son and a US delegation “to visit historical sites, learn about Greenlandic heritage, and attend Avannaata Qimussersu, Greenland’s national dog sled race.”

The organization behind the dog sled race told Greenlandic media that it had received a large but undisclosed sum of money from the US consulate in Nuuk, Greenland’s capital.

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Germany considers transferring Nord Stream 2 to US control

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In Germany, discussions are underway regarding the potential transfer of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to US control. The pipeline became unusable following sabotage in September 2022. The aim is to resume the flow of Russian gas to Europe.

According to a report by Bild newspaper, negotiations are ongoing to reach an agreement.

Meanwhile, some politicians from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, who was recently elected as prime minister, have suggested that natural gas imports from Russia could resume after the war in Ukraine ends.

CDU Member of Parliament Thomas Bareiss stated that Nord Stream 2 could be used for supplies, saying, “If peace is restored, relations normalize, and embargoes gradually ease, then, of course, gas could flow again, perhaps through a pipeline now under US control.”

Jan Heinisch, the deputy chairman of the CDU group in the North Rhine-Westphalia State Parliament, also stated that Germany should consider buying Russian gas again if a “fair and reliable” peace agreement is signed in Ukraine.

Heinisch added, “Whether this will be done by sea or via a pipeline remains to be seen.”

At the same time, Heinisch emphasized that Germany should not be dependent on a single supplier and should avoid situations where prices are “dictated.”

Heinisch is involved in developing the energy policy of the future ruling coalition consisting of the CDU, CSU, and SPD.

On the other hand, Free Democratic Party (FDP) Member of Parliament Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann claimed that the CDU is “already making efforts” to resume natural gas imports from Russia, undermining the country’s hard-won energy independence from Russia.

However, there are those within the CDU who do not want such cooperation to resume.

Party member Ruprecht Polenz said, “Vladimir Putin’s Russia can never be trusted again, and Donald Trump has shaken confidence in America. Therefore, the coalition agreement should rule out the reactivation of the Nord Stream pipeline.”

CDU foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter also criticized this step.

Kiesewetter said, “Those who have always opposed sanctions, those who want Nord Stream to work again and want to pounce on cheap Russian gas again, those who do not care about the genocide suffered by the Ukrainian people, each of them would be extremely pleased with such a rapprochement.”

In addition, SPD Member of Parliament Michael Roth stated that Bareiss’s proposal was an inappropriate signal at the wrong time, coming from someone who had “obviously learned nothing from recent history.”

The German Ministry of Economy, led by Robert Habeck of the Green Party, stated that Nord Stream 2 has not been approved and has not received legal approval, and “there is no question of operating it at the moment.”

The party itself described Bareiss’s statement as “scandalous,” saying, “If Germany starts buying gas from Russia again, it would mean rewarding President Vladimir Putin for his war of aggression.”

Sources speaking to Bild newspaper previously reported that Richard Grenell, the former US Ambassador to Berlin and currently Trump’s special envoy, had traveled unofficially to Switzerland a number of times to discuss the commissioning of Nord Stream 2.

The headquarters of Nord Stream 2 AG, the operator of the pipeline, is located in this country.

The sources claimed that the American side wanted to mediate the supply of Russian gas to Germany, but only at the level of private companies.

Prior to this, sources interviewed by the Financial Times had said that Matthias Warnig, the former CEO of Nord Stream 2 AG, was trying to reactivate Nord Stream 2 with the help of an American investor consortium that had drafted an agreement with Gazprom if sanctions were lifted.

A former senior US official familiar with the matter said, “The US will say, ‘Russia can be trusted now because there are reliable Americans involved.'”

The official added that if everything goes well, American investors will start making money “without doing anything.”

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Europe plans for US absence in NATO with 5-10 year strategy

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Europe’s major military powers are formulating plans to assume greater responsibility for the continent’s defense, reducing reliance on the United States.

According to a report in the Financial Times (FT), these discussions are driven by fears of a unilateral US withdrawal from NATO, exacerbated by repeated threats from former President Donald Trump to weaken or abandon the transatlantic alliance. The aim is to avoid the chaos that such a withdrawal could cause.

Four European officials familiar with the matter indicated that Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the Scandinavian countries are among those engaged in these informal discussions.

The FT reports that their objective is to devise a plan that shifts the financial and military burden towards European capitals. The intention is to present this plan to the US before NATO’s annual leaders’ summit in The Hague in June.

The proposal would include firm commitments from Europe to increase defense spending and enhance military capabilities, with the goal of persuading Trump to accept a gradual handover that would allow the US to focus more on Asia.

Since Trump’s election, countries such as Germany, France, and the UK have moved to increase defense spending or accelerate already planned increases. The EU has also launched initiatives to boost military investments among its member states.

Officials estimate that it would take approximately 5 to 10 years of increased spending to elevate Europe’s capabilities to a level where they could replace most US competencies, excluding US nuclear deterrence.

One source stated, “Increasing spending is our only leverage: burden-sharing and moving away from dependence on the US. We are beginning these discussions, but the task is so enormous that many are overwhelmed by its magnitude.”

While US diplomats have assured their European counterparts that Trump will remain committed to NATO membership and Article 5’s mutual defense clause, many European capitals worry that the White House might rapidly reduce troop or equipment deployments or withdraw from NATO’s joint missions.

Officials noted that some capitals are hesitant to participate in burden-sharing talks, fearing it might encourage the US to act more quickly, while others believe that despite Trump’s rhetoric, he does not intend to make significant changes to the US presence in Europe.

Others are skeptical that the Trump administration, given its unpredictable nature, would even agree to a structured process.

One official questioned, “You need an agreement with the Americans, and it’s not clear whether they will be willing to do that. Can you even trust that they would stick to an agreement?”

Officials highlight ongoing and regular discussions, led by France and Britain, about establishing a “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine in its war against Russia and to invest in European defense.

These discussions among more than ten European defense powers do not include the US.

When asked what a European pillar within NATO would mean and whether it is feasible, a senior Western official responded, “We are seeing it now: the UK and France are taking the initiative [on a guarantee force for Ukraine] without the Americans.”

NATO officials argue that maintaining the alliance with less or no US involvement is much simpler than creating a new structure, given the difficulty of recreating or renegotiating the existing military plans, capability targets, rules, command structure, and Article 5 for the continent’s defense.

Officials stated that for Europe’s core defense, the UK and other Atlantic maritime powers, the Scandinavian countries for the north of the continent, and Türkiye for the southeast defense will always be needed.

Marion Messmer, a research fellow in international security at Chatham House, noted, “Even without the US, NATO provides a structure for security cooperation in Europe. There are aspects that would need to be replaced if the US were to leave. But it provides a framework and infrastructure that Europeans are really familiar with. It does so much of the work that you would have to do from scratch if you were just setting up a different type of structure for just European members.”

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