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Trump wants Europe increase defence spending: What does it mean for Europe?

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Calls from President Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte for increased European defense spending have ignited a debate among European leaders. Dr. Ingo Piepers, founder of Global4Cast, told Harici how this could reshape Europe’s path toward strategic autonomy.

Ahmetcan Uzlaşık, Brussels

On January 7, Donald Trump stated that NATO members should spend 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defence, marking a solid increase from the current 2% target. NATO Chief Mark Rutte also expressed his approval of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, by stating that his presidency would “turbo-charge defense spending and production” within the alliance.

NATO projected that 23 of its 32 member nations achieved the target of allocating 2% of their GDP to defense spending in 2024. However, no member, including the United States, currently dedicates as much as 5% of GDP to defense. Among the alliance, Poland leads with defense spending equivalent to 4.12% of its GDP, followed by Estonia at 3.43% and the United States at 3.38%, while Türkiye spends 2.09% of its GDP.

Eight of NATO’s 32 member countries fail to meet the alliance’s recommended defense spending target of 2% of GDP. Among them are Spain (1.28%), Slovenia (1.29%), Luxembourg (1.29%), and Belgium (1.30%), with slightly higher figures for Canada (1.37%), Italy (1.49%), Portugal (1.55%), and Croatia (1.81%).

Poland: The biggest spender

Poland’s Defence Minister has expressed support for Donald Trump’s call for NATO members to allocate 5% of their GDP to defense. He emphasized on January 12 that Poland “can be the transatlantic link between this challenge set by President Trump and its implementation in Europe.” As NATO’s largest relative spender, Poland currently dedicates 4.12% of its GDP to defense in 2024, with plans to increase this to 4.7% in 2025. Notably, Poland has recently taken over the EU Council presidency, with a strong focus on defense and security.

European Countries Grapple with NATO’s 5% Defense Spending Target

European countries are adopting varying stances on the ambitious 5% target proposed by Trump. While Germany has met NATO’s 2% defense spending target for 2024, it falls short of Trump’s demand for a 5% increase. Despite a significant boost in military spending since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany is facing budgetary constraints that complicate future funding, with a projected €16 billion budget gap for 2025.

In contrast, Baltic nations approach the issue more urgently. Lithuania has taken a bold step, committing to raise its defense spending to between 5-6% of GDP by 2026. Similarly, Estonia plans to spend 3.7% of its GDP on defense.

Sweden, which allocated 2.1% of GDP to defense last year, also supports increased spending, with Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard stressing that European countries must shoulder more defense costs. 

Meanwhile, France faces political uncertainty that could hinder its efforts to increase defense spending, while the U.K. has not outlined a specific timeline for meeting its 2.5% defense target by 2030. The Czech Republic recently announced it reached the 2% target for the first time, with Prime Minister Petr Fiala suggesting that 3% could be feasible in the coming years.

Italy plans to allocate 1.57% of its GDP to defense in 2025 and aims to reach 2% by 2028, far below Trump’s wishes. 

NATO members’ defence expenditure as share of GDP

Source: NATO, 2024

“Europe Must Take Responsibility for Its Own Security”

Dr. Ingo Piepers began the interview by criticizing Europe’s dependence on the United States for security and leadership. “It is high time for Europe to take responsibility and ensure its own security,” he said, describing this reliance as “increasingly unhealthy” and urging greater European autonomy.

Dr. Piepers pointed to a widening values gap between the U.S. and Europe, particularly under leadership such as Donald Trump’s. “The claim on Greenland is a prime example,” he noted, stressing the importance of Europe staying true to its principles and avoiding becoming “an instrument of a United States that disregards fundamental rights and agreements whenever it suits them.”

He also emphasized that Europe should have adopted a more critical and independent stance, particularly its support for Israel in Gaza and the occupied territories. “Europe must take responsibility for its own actions and ensure that the values it claims to represent are upheld in practice, rather than merely paying lip service to them,” Dr. Piepers added.

“Ambitious and Unrealistic”

Asked about Donald Trump’s suggestion that NATO countries meet or exceed 5% of GDP in defense spending, Dr. Piepers dismissed the proposal as “ambitious and, in many ways, unrealistic.” While acknowledging that European NATO members must take their defense responsibilities more seriously, he described the 5% target as “arbitrary and unsubstantiated.”

“It is essential to first conduct a comprehensive threat assessment to determine the actual requirements for European security. From this analysis, NATO’s strategy—including a stronger European pillar—must be adapted accordingly. Only then can realistic and justifiable spending goals be established,” he explained.

He argued that Europe’s focus should be on building a highly capable, largely autonomous European defense force within NATO. “Europe’s priority should be the development of a highly capable, largely autonomous European defense force within NATO,” he emphasized. This includes fostering interoperability, joint capabilities, and readiness rather than fragmenting investments at the national level.

Dr. Piepers pointed to Russia’s failure to capture Kyiv after nearly three years of war as a reminder of the importance of measured, strategic investments. “Strategic and measured investments are far more critical than a blanket 5% target,” he concluded.

“Trump’s Presidency Could Accelerate Europe’s Strategic Autonomy”

Dr. Ingo Piepers believes that the second term for Donald Trump would significantly push Europe toward pursuing strategic autonomy. “Trump’s transactional approach to alliances underscores the need for Europe to become more self-reliant,” he said, highlighting the urgency for Europe to rethink its dependence on U.S. leadership.

“A credible and cohesive defense strategy that addresses both conventional and hybrid threats is essential,” he explained. He noted that Europe must take on greater responsibility and assert its influence on the global stage. “Trump’s presidency should be seen as a catalyst for Europe to transition from dependence on U.S. leadership to a position of greater responsibility and influence within the international system” Dr. Piepers stated.

“A Roadmap for Europe’s Global Influence”

Dr. Ingo Piepers laid out actionable steps for the EU to enhance its global influence and reduce dependency on the United States:

Unify Foreign Policy

The EU must strengthen its ability to act decisively on the global stage by improving coordination among member states.” 

Address Internal Divisions

Political and economic stability within Europe is essential for projecting power externally. Addressing budgetary crises, leadership transitions, and divisions among member states will enhance Europe’s ability to act cohesively.”

Develop Independent Defense Capabilities

Europe must prioritize the development of a unified defense force that can operate independently of U.S. support. This includes investing in critical infrastructure, modernizing equipment, and enhancing the readiness of European forces.”

Build Strategic Alliances

The EU should deepen its relationships with like-minded nations and regional organizations, such as ASEAN and the African Union. Diversifying partnerships will reduce dependency on the United States and expand Europe’s global influence.”

Invest in Innovation

“By leading in areas such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and defense technologies, Europe can position itself as a global leader in innovation. This will also enhance its economic and security resilience.”

Dr. Piepers concluded, “Europe needs to seize this moment to take responsibility and redefine its role in the world. Only by acting decisively can it safeguard its interests in an increasingly complex global landscape.”

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AfD, CDU, SPD, and Greens face off in pre-election German TV debate

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A week before the early federal elections in Germany, chancellor candidates from the AfD, CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens engaged in a heated discussion on controversial issues during a four-way TV debate.

On RTL’s Quadrell program, contrasting viewpoints on topics including the economy, social policy, the war in Ukraine, and the new US administration became evident.

A Forsa poll conducted after the program indicated Friedrich Merz as the winner of the Quadrell. In a survey by the research group on behalf of RTL, 32% of respondents stated that the CDU/CSU candidate impressed them with his performance.

In contrast, only 25% supported Olaf Scholz. Robert Habeck and Alice Weidel tied with 18% each in the audience poll.

Trump initiative is the main topic in Ukraine

US President Donald Trump and his deputy, JD Vance, have emphasized that a ceasefire must be negotiated and peace achieved in Ukraine, stated Alice Weidel, AfD candidate for Chancellor. “We have suffered a lot of insults for this,” Weidel noted, highlighting that the AfD has consistently called for this for nearly three years.

The AfD leader praised Donald Trump as the “right man” to end the war in Ukraine and urged his country to maintain a “neutral mediator” role.

CDU leader and chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, however, accused Weidel of omitting that Russia initiated the war in Ukraine without justification.

Responding to the AfD leader’s suggestion that Germany should not take sides, he asserted, “No, we are not neutral; we are not in between. We are on the side of Ukraine, and together with Ukraine, we are defending the political order that we have here,” Merz declared.

According to Merz, the Russian president envisions restoring “Greater Russia” and has “NATO territory in his sights.”

Current Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the SPD argued that no one should dictate the fate of Ukraine’s country “as they see fit.”

Robert Habeck, the Greens’ candidate for Chancellor and current Vice Chancellor, contended that Trump and his government have launched “a frontal attack on the Western community of values.”

Habeck maintained that Trump is “questioning the rules-based order and liberal democracy” and therefore sees no issue in “making a deal” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, adding that Europeans “must now stand together.”

Migration debate

The chancellor candidates also diverged on migration.

Chancellor Scholz, for instance, expressed his intent to continue efforts to limit irregular migration: “We will and must continue to do so,” he affirmed.

Merz, conversely, stated that the number of deportations was insufficient and the number of new asylum seekers too high. He also criticized the federal reception program for “particularly vulnerable” individuals from Afghanistan.

The Green’s Habeck argued that the Taliban ruling Afghanistan constituted a “terrorist regime.”

Weidel of the AfD spoke of a “loss of control” in the country.

AfD reminded of ‘Nazism’

During the debate, Chancellor Scholz referenced Germany’s National Socialist past, recalling the words of Alexander Gauland, honorary chairman of the AfD, who stated in June 2018: “Hitler and the Nazis are just bird droppings in over 1,000 years of successful German history.”

Gauland later characterized his statement as “misinterpretable and therefore politically unwise.”

In response, Weidel said, “You can insult me as much as you like here tonight. You insult millions of voters. That doesn’t affect me at all. I only represent these votes.”

Weidel declined to comment on Gauland’s statements despite inquiries from the moderators.

Weidel dismissed comments from her opponents as “outrageous” and described the AfD as a “liberal conservative party.”

Weidel also mentioned that US Vice President JD Vance objected to the “security cordon” policy against the AfD at the Munich Security Conference. “Vance admitted that you cannot build firewalls to exclude millions of voters from the very beginning. He made it clear that we have to talk to each other,” Weidel stated.

Merz, however, characterized the AfD as a “radical right-wing, largely extreme right-wing party” and accused Weidel of holding an “uncritical view” of Björn Höcke, leader of the AfD’s ethno-nationalist wing.

“Björn Höcke and I get on very well,” Weidel said in an interview with the Bild newspaper, describing the earlier attempt to expel Höcke from the AfD as a mistake.

When asked if she considered Höcke suitable for a ministerial position, Weidel replied, “Yes.”

CDU points to SPD and Greens in post-election coalition

CDU leader Merz identified the SPD or the Greens as potential coalition partners after the Bundestag elections on February 23 and ruled out collaboration with the AfD.

Noting his reservations about the FDP, Merz added that he was quite confident that “sensible talks will be possible” after the elections.

Scholz, Habeck, Merz, and Weidel also appeared on the Klartext program on ZDF last Thursday. The four are scheduled to meet again this evening on ARD’s Wahlarena program, where questions will be posed by citizens.

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UK military leaders urge Starmer to invest in ‘futuristic’ weapons

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British army chiefs have told Prime Minister Keir Starmer that he must give the Armed Forces a ‘national arsenal’ of ‘futuristic’ weapons or risk war with Russia, The Telegraph reported.

Senior army sources confirmed that the military chiefs, in face-to-face meetings with the Prime Minister on Friday, justified what their forces needed for the next war and said the investment would support the government’s growth agenda.

The commanders, who met with Starmer as part of a series of briefings ahead of the Strategic Defence Review, did so against the backdrop of debate over whether defense spending should be increased by 2.5 percent or more.

Donald Trump has been calling on European countries to significantly increase their defense spending, even suggesting that NATO allies reach 5% of their GDP.

Senior US administration figures reiterated this message at the Munich Security Conference this weekend, reigniting speculation that Starmer might change his approach.

But there appears to be no appetite in Downing Street to go beyond 2.5 percent, or to change long-standing plans to reach it this spring.

An ally of the Prime Minister told The Telegraph, “The policy we stood on at the election was 2.5 percent for defense spending. Our policy is still 2.5 percent. We are not going to make any further changes,” he said.

However, The Telegraph writes that during Friday’s briefings the prime minister was told that the military needed a major upgrade of its weapons to deter Russia and China.

This overhaul will involve working more closely with the private sector to replace traditional weapons such as aircraft and tanks with more lethal, crewless systems.

A senior army source close to the briefings said that while conventional weapons will still be needed in the future, the UK should invest in technology companies producing ‘first-person view’ drones (where a remote pilot has a video perspective from the drone), cheap mobile munitions (suicide drones), and crewless ground vehicles and surface ships.

“A national arsenal in the form of contracts for goods and services is needed to realize the goals of doubling combat power. In simple terms, while today the bulk of our lethality comes from crewed and high-complexity platforms such as tanks or attack helicopters, in the future we want to shift a greater proportion of our lethality to low-complexity and crewless systems,” he said.

The source argued that expanding production lines in this new sector will put the United Kingdom ahead of its enemies and keep the nation safe.

The army source argued that increasing British combat power as well as mobilizing market power was ‘the way to deal with authoritarian states’.

“Markets will do more than missiles can to make them think twice about starting a war with us. If we invest, we will be the first to act,” he said.

The source said the weapons shift was as much about the military becoming ‘more lethal’ as it was about supporting the government’s mission of economic growth by creating a more ‘active and engaged industrial sector’.

Last month, the Chief of the General Staff, General Sir Roly Walker, gave a speech in which he warned that society considered investment in defense to be ‘morally wrong’.

Last week, The Telegraph reported that senior Ministry of Defence sources were concerned about the ‘psychology of public opinion’, as British citizens did not see the country at risk, despite the war in Ukraine and Trump’s insistence that Europe should bear more of the costs within NATO.

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Germany’s business model has disappeared, Merz says

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On February 23, CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who is expected to become the new chancellor of Germany after the early federal elections, spoke to The Economist.

Merz, who argued that Germany’s “business model” that marked the 2000s no longer exists, said that Europe must change in order not to fall behind the US and China in innovative sectors such as artificial intelligence.

“We have to do serious work on this bureaucratic burden,” said the CDU leader, signaling that he would wage war on the bureaucracy in Berlin and Brussels, and listed a series of directives and regulations, including detailed due diligence reporting standards that German business leaders hate.

“We should concentrate our public spending on, for example, the labor market,” Merz said, adding that he would then take the axe to the “social welfare system” so that “people who don’t want to work don’t have to pay for it.”

He remains convinced of the export-oriented model

Merz, who said that “at least 50 natural gas power plants should be built” on energy, which is one of the important problem items of German industry, said that there would be no return to Russian gas “for now” and that he was “absolutely” willing to enter into long-term contracts for relatively more expensive American liquefied natural gas (LNG). Merz also stated that a return to nuclear energy is also possible in Germany, pointing out that he is considering new nuclear reactors.

Asserting that the €460bn ($474bn) federal budget “has a lot of room for change,” Merz said he was open to discussing the loosening of the constitutional debt brake, which limits the federal government’s structural deficit to 0.35% of GDP, but emphasized that this was “not their first approach.”

Insisting that German industry was still strong, Merz insisted that his country’s export-oriented model could “absolutely” survive, despite the world’s turn towards protectionism and the imminent imposition of tariffs by the US on the EU.

Proposal for unequal sharing of sovereignty and the single market

When it comes to European politics, Merz promised to revive the “Weimar Triangle” with France and Poland, said he would like to work on joint projects in the fields of artificial intelligence and quantum computing as well as military co-operation, and hoped to work “very closely” with Italy’s right-wing prime minister Giorgia Meloni.

More fundamentally, Merz supports the idea of a European organization of “concentric circles,” first proposed in the 1990s by Wolfgang Schäuble, a leading CDU figure and Merz’s political mentor, in which some countries are at the center of integration while others share less sovereignty and benefit less from the common market.

“Being completely in or completely out should not be the right answer,” he said, referring to the UK’s relationship with the EU.

The CDU leader said he believes that in order to avoid Brexit, greater concessions on the free movement of people should be made in good time.

‘My task is not to make Trump happy’

As for Donald Trump, Merz claimed that the American president’s transparent, transactional approach meant that negotiating with him would be “very easy.”

Brussels should respond to Washington’s threat of tariffs on EU exports, as it did in 2018 during Trump’s first term, with a targeted response that would “inflict enough pain to concentrate minds,” he said.

On defense spending, he was reluctant to commit to higher figures, recognizing that it would be hard enough to meet NATO’s base of 2% of GDP when a special fund expires in 2028, but conceded that in the long run “it has to be more.”

Asked what he would do if the US insisted that Germany move faster, the CDU leader replied: “It is not my job to make President Trump happy.”

Meanwhile, Merz also downplayed calls from EU partners for changes to fiscal rules to allow for more defense spending or even joint borrowing, saying: “Let’s be very skeptical and critical about this. I don’t see it in the foreseeable future,” he said.

Merz is cautious on the Ukraine issue

The deployment of peacekeepers to Ukraine “could be an option,” but “only after a credible ceasefire,” Merz argued, stressing that “a country at war is not a potential NATO member” in relation to the security guarantees demanded by Kiev.

He admitted that, if asked, he “would like to see Ukraine as a peaceful country in NATO,” but added that it was “too early” to consider accepting a country that did not have full control over its territory, at least until the United States clarified its policy.

Nevertheless, Merz emphasized that he was in favor of the US proposal to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine.

Single market, but only for Germany?

Despite his fervent support for EU proposals to facilitate capital flows in the single market, Merz rejected as “extremely unfriendly” the proposed takeover of Commerzbank, one of Germany’s largest lenders, by Italy’s UniCredit.

Far from defending Germany’s national champions, Merz’s eagerness to inject a bit of American-style crony capitalism into Germany’s dazed model is genuine, according to The Economist.

During his decade in the private sector, he remains particularly comfortable in boardrooms, where he was chairman of the German arm of asset manager BlackRock, during which time he became a multimillionaire.

Merz left politics in the 2000s after Angela Merkel’s CDU defeated him in the struggle for power, but when Merkel resigned as party leader in 2018, Merz shocked the political world and ran for office.

When it comes to relations with the AfD, Merz seems relaxed. According to him, if the economy and irregular migration improve, the AfD will shrink and reach a point where it will no longer be in parliament (less than 5% of the vote).

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