U.S. President Joe Biden and his administration, soon to be succeeded by Donald Trump, have decided to relax the stringent sanctions regime on Syria, which has been in place for years, in favor of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad.

The U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General Authorization No. 24, signifying a major shift in U.S. sanctions policy towards Syria.

This new authorization, valid until 7 July 2025, eases restrictions on specific transactions involving Syria. For instance, transactions with Syrian administrative institutions will be permitted starting 8 December 2024. Key provisions of the authorization include authorization for the sale, supply, storage, or donation of energy resources, such as oil, natural gas, and electricity, to or within Syria, and permission for processing non-commercial personal remittances to Syria, including through the Central Bank of Syria.

However, military and intelligence organizations remain excluded. Transactions involving the governments of Russia or Iran, as well as their goods or services, are still prohibited. Additionally, importing Syrian petroleum products into the United States remains banned, and new investments in Syria are restricted, with limited exceptions for employee salaries.

This new policy represents a considerable easing of sanctions, potentially allowing U.S. allies in the region to offer humanitarian assistance, engage in economic reconstruction, and increase interaction with Syria’s governing institutions.

Speaking to Reuters yesterday, Maher Khalil al-Hassan, HTS’s trade minister, stated that Syria has struggled to secure deals for importing fuel, wheat, and other essential commodities due to strict U.S. sanctions, despite interest from many countries, including Gulf Arab states. Al-Hassan mentioned that Syria’s new leadership has managed to amass enough wheat and fuel to last several months but warned of an impending “catastrophe” if sanctions are not suspended or lifted soon.

At the height of the current tensions between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan, India condemned Pakistan’s airstrikes in Paktika province in eastern Afghanistan with a delay of two weeks. India is the second country that has officially reacted to these attacks.

In a statement, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India supported the position of the Taliban and condemned the killing of civilians in Pakistan’s attacks. Delhi made no mention of Pakistan’s claim that it had struck four hideouts of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), a group that has become a security problem for the Pakistani military. Delhi ironically said that “Islamabad always blames its neighbors.”

Pakistan traditionally holds India and Afghanistan responsible for internal insurgencies and attacks by terrorist and separatist groups on its soil. Recently, Pakistani officials accused the Afghan Taliban of colluding with India to destabilize Pakistan.

Trust-building

India’s new stance can be described as a clever political game or even political opportunism. India, which has always considered the Taliban as Pakistan’s proxy force in the region and was one of the main supporters of the former Afghan government, now plans to use the tension between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan to get closer to the Taliban.

Over the past three years, New Delhi has tried to reduce its longstanding mistrust with the Taliban. Expelling the ambassador and diplomats of the previous government from Delhi, handing over the Afghan embassy and consulates in India to the Taliban, cutting ties with former allies such as the leaders of the resistance front, and stopping the issuance of visas to former officials have been part of this trust building and rapprochement.

Revival of lost influence

Afghanistan has always been important for Delhi due to its geographical proximity to Pakistan. Pakistan says that Delhi’s purpose in getting closer to Afghanistan was to destabilize the tense areas in Pakistan, especially in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

India has traditionally supported Afghan governments against Pakistan. Due to the dispute with Pakistan over the “Durand Line”, Afghanistan has had enough incentive to get closer to India. India has also provided various economic, technical and diplomatic assistance to Afghanistan to strengthen this relationship.

With the return of the Taliban, India was forced to close its embassy and consulates in Kabul, Balkh, Herat, Nangarhar and Kandahar provinces. Following this, India severed all ties – even people-to-people links – with Afghanistan.

Thousands of Afghan students were prevented from continuing their studies in Indian universities due to lack of visas. After the political collapse in Afghanistan, many believed that the history of India’s influence in Afghanistan was also over.

But the Taliban, unlike the previous period, is trying to establish relations with all countries in the region and is not dependent on a particular country, and took steps to strengthen relations with India.

Yaqoob Mujahid, the Minister of Defense of the Taliban, in an unprecedented statement said that the Taliban is ready to send its forces to India for training. India also responded to the goodwill of the Taliban by sending its diplomats to Kabul.

Recently, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian about expanding relations with Afghanistan through Chabahar port. The government of Iran said that “the talk about Afghanistan was made because of the interest of the Indian side.”

India is seriously trying to reduce the Taliban’s dependence on Pakistan and strengthen its relations through Chabahar.

Approaching the enemy border

The importance of India’s efforts to improve relations with the Taliban and open a foothold in Afghanistan should be seen from the eyes of Pakistan. Islamabad has consistently complained about India’s diplomatic presence in Afghanistan, especially in its border areas.

Pakistan considers India a vital threat and does not accept the country’s proximity to its borders. In the previous government of Afghanistan, relations between Kabul and Islamabad were cold.

Pakistani officials had repeatedly expressed concern about the activities of Indian consulates in Jalalabad and Kandahar in meetings with Afghan leaders. Even some Pakistani leaders had made cooperation in securing peace and stability in Afghanistan conditional on reducing relations with India and closing the country’s embassies in the mentioned cities.

Analysts are unanimous on the point that Pakistan considers Afghanistan as a barrier or an area free of Indian influence. This country has continuously supported the paramilitary groups and the subversive central government in order to establish a pro-Pakistan government.

India sees an opportunity to expand its influence in Afghanistan in the worsening relations between Islamabad and the Taliban. However, it is not clear how far this tension will make the Afghan Taliban rely on Delhi.

What is certain is that Pakistan finds the closeness of the Taliban and India intolerable, just as it was angry about the close relations of the former Afghan government with New Delhi.

Of course, we should not ignore the fact that the Afghan Taliban is as much a double-edged sword for Delhi as it is for Pakistan. Because the Afghan Taliban has not cut off its relations with militant and terrorist groups.

Strengthening the Afghan Taliban also means strengthening Pakistani militant Islamist groups, which Delhi considers a tool in the hands of Pakistan and a threat to its national security.

Rising unrest in Pakistan by TTP, a close ally of the Afghani Taliban has benefited India

In recent decades, part of India’s strategy in Afghanistan has been to weaken Pakistan. Supporting separatist groups and creating unrest in Pakistan is an important part of this policy.

Rising unrest in Pakistan by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a close ally of the Afghan Taliban, has benefited India. From 2020 until now, the level of insecurity in Pakistan has increased steadily and 2024 was the most unstable year in Pakistan in a decade.

Pakistan believes that the insecurity and violence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is organized from the soil of Afghanistan and that the Afghan Taliban have collaborated with India.

Understanding the depth of these tensions, India has taken steps to intensify the differences between the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban by supporting the Taliban. India seeks to increase the dependence of the Afghan Taliban on New Delhi in order to exploit these relations in the long run to weaken Pakistan.

The statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India can probably increase Islamabad’s skepticism towards the Taliban. To solve the problem of militants, Pakistan has increased military and political pressure on the Taliban. However, this pressure will make the Afghan Taliban more inclined towards Delhi.

Despite the absence of three years in the diplomatic arena of Afghanistan, India has been able to advance its goals. Pakistan has suffered the most from the recent developments in Afghanistan. The increase in insecurity in Pakistan is largely related to the events after the fall of the republican system in Afghanistan.

The Joe Biden administration has provisionally approved an $8 billion arms sale to Israel in a last-minute demonstration of support for the U.S. president’s close ally after more than a year of war in Gaza.

The U.S. State Department announced the sale to Congress late on Friday through an informal notification, according to Financial Times (FT) sources. This step precedes a public announcement and requires approval from the Senate and House Foreign Affairs Committees before implementation.

The arms package includes $6.75 billion worth of precision-guided missiles and small bombs, $300 million worth of 155 mm artillery shells, $600 million worth of Hellfire missiles, and $300 million worth of Amraam air-to-air missiles, according to one source familiar with the matter.

Another source indicated that while some of the weapons would come directly from U.S. stockpiles, most deliveries would take a year or longer.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu frequently accuses the United States of delaying arms and ammunition deliveries—claims the Biden administration denies.

In November, Netanyahu stated that he had agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon to allow Israeli forces to replenish their stockpiles. Around the same time, the Biden administration informally notified Congress of its intention to supply Israel with $680 million worth of precision weapons. This notification followed an unsuccessful attempt by some Democrats in Congress to block a $20 billion arms sale to Israel last summer.

In April, Congress approved an additional $26 billion in war aid to Israel, supplementing the $3.8 billion in annual U.S. security assistance to the country.