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US benefits from Ukraine conflict triggering world food crisis

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In 2022, the world food crisis has emerged and the world is in a weird contrast. While the latest global food crisis has thrust 345 million people into food insecurity, the US food giants are dominating global transitions. The US showed less interest to deal with the food crisis ignited from conflict in Ukraine while the US is framing itself as a guardian of global food security.

Indeed the war in Ukraine has created lots of problems especially for the underdeveloped nations in the region and Africa. The problem has hit the so-called developing nations hard. It is also topical for Afghanistan.

World food crisis brewed long before Ukraine war

The world food crisis has been brewing for a long time, while the Ukrainian conflict, which the Russian see as unleashed by the West, has allowed the US and its allies to take almost all the grain produced by Ukraine, which is a major food manufacturer.

Many argue that today’s situation at the food market is not the result of this year’s events, but at least a two-year trend. According to stock market data, in 2021 wheat prices soared by 25% (the West plays with the thesis of a 70% increase, but this is false). Biannual corn price rise has been 162%, rapeseed – 175%. In February-March 2022, quotations of the key agricultural goods were subject to severe volatility against the background of fear of curtailed deliveries. Last years’ crises at the agricultural market first and foremost are linked to the failures and accumulated systemic mistakes in macroeconomics, including finance and trade, energy, including climate, and food policies by the West.

Russia eyed safe trade corridors with Ukraine

Back in March 2022, Russia proposed to establish safe trade corridors from Ukraine for food export to the countries in need. Ukraine mined its seaports as per West’s order, and thus blocked ways out of its territorial waters to dozens of vessels stuck in its ports. Kiev refused to conduct demining. Despite Russia’s and Turkey’s efforts, an agreement on the export of grain was reached only by the end of July 2022. The sides agreed that Russian and Ukrainian grain, as well as Russian-produced fertilizers would be exported, first and foremost to those countries that need them most.

Needy countries did not benefit from grain shipment

It turned out however that the food did not in the least go to those countries that were experiencing the food crisis mentioned by the initiators of the agreement. Only 3% of exported grain left for the needy countries, while well-off Europe received 30%. In the course of the talk with UN Secretary General Antonio Gutierrez Russian President Vladimir Putin called upon to pay attention to the geography of deliveries in order to enhance the share of the most needed countries, first and foremost African ones.

Russia vessels barred from entering Mediterranean

The Russia-UN agreement lifted the barriers to Moscow’s grain and fertilizer export, which could alleviate world food conditions. However, this part of the agreement has never been fulfilled. Russian vessels are still barred from entering Mediterranean and other EU ports, while foreign vessels cannot take these goods in Russian ports. Nearly 300 thousand tonnes of the needy and efficient Russian-made potash fertilizers are arrested in the EU ports. Russia has suggested that Western countries should transfer these Russian fertilizers to the developing nations. However the West has refused to do so.

Instead of feeding the needy the food goes to West

At the end, we see the result, i.e. the West profiting from the Ukraine conflict as much as possible. Instead of feeding the needy the food goes to the US and its allies. At the same time the West is constantly blaming Russia as allegedly the only reason for the upcoming food crisis, which is refuted by the above-mentioned facts. In reality we see yet another outrageous cynical policy by the West which aims to fix its problems in the economy at the expense of others. In that context the fraud within the grain deal matches the freeze, or rather the theft, by the US of Afghan monetary reserves.

Countries warned to buy grain from Russia

On July 28, when the US commented on the grain deal signed by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN personnel, US State Department Spokesperson Ned Price urged Russia to implement the deal and lift the blockade against Ukraine quickly. But he did not mention about the US-led sanction on Russian exports which indeed affected many consumer countries. Furthermore, in mid-May, the US warned 14 countries, mostly in drought-stricken Africa not to buy wheat from Russia, while most of the Ukraine grain shipments were transferred to the West, ignoring these countries’ plight. But, India, close allies to the US, has shown readiness to resuming purchases of Russian wheat with the aim of processing and re-exporting it. India was purchasing wheat from Ukraine, Russia and Australia but suddenly stopped importing grain. India said the decision to halt the purchases of Russia’s grain has nothing to do with the conflict in Ukraine.

One thing is very clear that no matter how the situation in Ukraine may evolve, a fundamental reform is needed in the food industry and how it should be produced and prices must be set. The world is experiencing an unjust food crisis due to multiple reasons and this has to be changed in nutshell.

DIPLOMACY

Argentina and the IMF: Negotiations begin for a new $44bn agreement

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Argentina is pursuing a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to replace its current $44 billion arrangement. The effort signals a significant shift in the country’s financial strategy under President Javier Milei’s administration.

IMF Chief Spokesperson Julie Kozack confirmed on Thursday that the Milei government is prioritizing the establishment of a new programme over completing the final reviews of the existing deal inherited from the previous administration. According to a Bloomberg report, Kozack stated, “The authorities have formally expressed their desire to move to a new programme, and negotiations are now underway.”

The discussions intensified following a visit earlier this month by officials from Economy Minister Luis Caputo’s office and the central bank to Washington, where they engaged with IMF representatives.

The central question in the negotiations revolves around whether the IMF will extend additional financing beyond the $44 billion already allocated to Argentina. Milei had previously suggested an additional $15 billion, although he has not reiterated this figure recently. However, Caputo indicated this week that new funding could be included as part of the prospective programme.

If the parties reach an agreement, it would mark Argentina’s 23rd programme with the IMF since 1958 and its third since 2018. Historically, the IMF’s interventions in Argentina have faced criticism, as many past agreements failed to stabilize the economy. Successive governments often violated programme objectives, raising doubts about the effectiveness of IMF support in the country.

President Milei and his chief negotiator, Caputo, have a history of strained relations with the IMF. Earlier this year, Milei publicly criticized Rodrigo Valdes, one of the IMF’s senior officials, leading to Valdes stepping back from negotiations. Similarly, Caputo clashed with the IMF during his tenure as finance minister in 2018, particularly over exchange rate policies, which eventually prompted his resignation after a short stint as central bank governor.

Despite these tensions, the IMF has commended the Milei administration for implementing measures to cut spending, reduce inflation, and narrow gaps between the country’s various exchange rates.

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Trump threatens tariffs on the EU over energy purchases

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has issued a warning to the European Union (EU), stating that the bloc may face tariffs if it does not increase its purchases of U.S. oil and gas on a “large scale.”

“I told the European Union that they must close the enormous gap with the United States by buying our oil and gas on a large scale. Otherwise, TARIFFS!!! in every way!!!” Trump declared in a post on the Truth Social platform on Friday.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen previously suggested that the EU could explore the possibility of importing more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. “We still buy a lot of LNG from Russia, and why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper for us and lowers our energy prices?” von der Leyen remarked to reporters in November.

An EU official, speaking to the Financial Times (FT), noted the peculiarity of Trump’s threat, given von der Leyen’s earlier openness to the idea of increasing LNG imports from the U.S.

Currently, the United States is Europe’s largest supplier of LNG, though Russia remains the EU’s second-largest source. The possibility of replacing Russian LNG with U.S. imports aligns with the EU’s efforts to diversify its energy sources.

Trump has also floated the possibility of a general tariff of up to 20% on all non-Chinese imports, which could have significant implications for EU-U.S. trade relations.

In November, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde urged European leaders to engage with the U.S. on trade matters, including tariffs, and to consider purchasing more U.S.-manufactured goods. This call for cooperation echoes measures taken during Trump’s first term, when then-European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker pledged to buy more U.S. gas to avert the risk of a trade war.

Global oil prices have shown sensitivity to these developments. On Friday, international oil benchmark Brent crude prices dropped 0.4% to $72.61 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also fell 0.4%, trading at $69.14 per barrel.

The U.S., currently the world’s largest producer of crude oil and exporter of LNG, has been strengthening its energy trade partnerships. Buyers, including the EU and Vietnam, are reportedly considering increased fuel purchases from the U.S., partly to mitigate the risk of potential tariffs.

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London pushes for continued U.S. support to Ukraine amid leadership transition

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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged Donald Trump on Wednesday to ensure that Western allies “stand together” in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.

During a phone call with the U.S. president-elect, their second conversation since Trump’s electoral victory in November, Starmer emphasized the importance of unified support for Ukraine, stating that “allies must stand with Ukraine… and ensure that Ukraine is in the strongest possible position.”

A spokesperson for the British Prime Minister’s Office described the discussion as highlighting a “shared desire to strengthen the close and historic relationship between the United Kingdom and the United States.”

Starmer began the call by congratulating Trump on his recent team appointments. Trump responded by “warmly recounting” his recent meeting with Prince William, Prince of Wales, in Paris earlier this month, according to the Prime Minister’s Office.

As Trump prepares to take office next month, he has expressed intentions to seek a deal to end the war in Ukraine, though he has also publicly criticized certain Western policies, including the approval of missile supplies to Ukraine for use on Russian soil.

In an interview with The Sun on Tuesday, Starmer expressed hope to revive trade talks with the incoming U.S. administration. These negotiations had stalled two years ago under President Joe Biden. The leaders also expressed mutual anticipation of meeting in person “at the first opportunity.” According to the i newspaper, Starmer may visit the U.S. in early February.

Meanwhile, The Telegraph reported that Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, conducted private meetings with senior members of Trump’s team earlier this month. McSweeney traveled to Florida to meet Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff-designate, who played a pivotal role in managing his re-election campaign. He also held discussions in Washington with Congressman Mike Waltz, Trump’s incoming National Security Adviser.

A senior source in the Prime Minister’s Office described the interactions as “very warm,” adding that “President Trump has a warm approach to the UK. As the year draws to a close, the Starmer team is confident that the UK is well-placed for a strong bilateral relationship with the new president.”

Starmer’s delegation to the U.S., which began on December 2, included Jonathan Powell, former chief of staff to Tony Blair and now Starmer’s national security adviser. Together with McSweeney, Powell engaged in policy discussions on Ukraine, China, and the Middle East, identifying areas of alignment and divergence between the two leaders.

According to The Telegraph, those close to Starmer believe Trump is currently in “listening mode” on Ukraine, carefully evaluating strategies to fulfill his campaign promise of resolving the conflict “on day one” of his presidency.

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