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US benefits from Ukraine conflict triggering world food crisis

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In 2022, the world food crisis has emerged and the world is in a weird contrast. While the latest global food crisis has thrust 345 million people into food insecurity, the US food giants are dominating global transitions. The US showed less interest to deal with the food crisis ignited from conflict in Ukraine while the US is framing itself as a guardian of global food security.

Indeed the war in Ukraine has created lots of problems especially for the underdeveloped nations in the region and Africa. The problem has hit the so-called developing nations hard. It is also topical for Afghanistan.

World food crisis brewed long before Ukraine war

The world food crisis has been brewing for a long time, while the Ukrainian conflict, which the Russian see as unleashed by the West, has allowed the US and its allies to take almost all the grain produced by Ukraine, which is a major food manufacturer.

Many argue that today’s situation at the food market is not the result of this year’s events, but at least a two-year trend. According to stock market data, in 2021 wheat prices soared by 25% (the West plays with the thesis of a 70% increase, but this is false). Biannual corn price rise has been 162%, rapeseed – 175%. In February-March 2022, quotations of the key agricultural goods were subject to severe volatility against the background of fear of curtailed deliveries. Last years’ crises at the agricultural market first and foremost are linked to the failures and accumulated systemic mistakes in macroeconomics, including finance and trade, energy, including climate, and food policies by the West.

Russia eyed safe trade corridors with Ukraine

Back in March 2022, Russia proposed to establish safe trade corridors from Ukraine for food export to the countries in need. Ukraine mined its seaports as per West’s order, and thus blocked ways out of its territorial waters to dozens of vessels stuck in its ports. Kiev refused to conduct demining. Despite Russia’s and Turkey’s efforts, an agreement on the export of grain was reached only by the end of July 2022. The sides agreed that Russian and Ukrainian grain, as well as Russian-produced fertilizers would be exported, first and foremost to those countries that need them most.

Needy countries did not benefit from grain shipment

It turned out however that the food did not in the least go to those countries that were experiencing the food crisis mentioned by the initiators of the agreement. Only 3% of exported grain left for the needy countries, while well-off Europe received 30%. In the course of the talk with UN Secretary General Antonio Gutierrez Russian President Vladimir Putin called upon to pay attention to the geography of deliveries in order to enhance the share of the most needed countries, first and foremost African ones.

Russia vessels barred from entering Mediterranean

The Russia-UN agreement lifted the barriers to Moscow’s grain and fertilizer export, which could alleviate world food conditions. However, this part of the agreement has never been fulfilled. Russian vessels are still barred from entering Mediterranean and other EU ports, while foreign vessels cannot take these goods in Russian ports. Nearly 300 thousand tonnes of the needy and efficient Russian-made potash fertilizers are arrested in the EU ports. Russia has suggested that Western countries should transfer these Russian fertilizers to the developing nations. However the West has refused to do so.

Instead of feeding the needy the food goes to West

At the end, we see the result, i.e. the West profiting from the Ukraine conflict as much as possible. Instead of feeding the needy the food goes to the US and its allies. At the same time the West is constantly blaming Russia as allegedly the only reason for the upcoming food crisis, which is refuted by the above-mentioned facts. In reality we see yet another outrageous cynical policy by the West which aims to fix its problems in the economy at the expense of others. In that context the fraud within the grain deal matches the freeze, or rather the theft, by the US of Afghan monetary reserves.

Countries warned to buy grain from Russia

On July 28, when the US commented on the grain deal signed by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN personnel, US State Department Spokesperson Ned Price urged Russia to implement the deal and lift the blockade against Ukraine quickly. But he did not mention about the US-led sanction on Russian exports which indeed affected many consumer countries. Furthermore, in mid-May, the US warned 14 countries, mostly in drought-stricken Africa not to buy wheat from Russia, while most of the Ukraine grain shipments were transferred to the West, ignoring these countries’ plight. But, India, close allies to the US, has shown readiness to resuming purchases of Russian wheat with the aim of processing and re-exporting it. India was purchasing wheat from Ukraine, Russia and Australia but suddenly stopped importing grain. India said the decision to halt the purchases of Russia’s grain has nothing to do with the conflict in Ukraine.

One thing is very clear that no matter how the situation in Ukraine may evolve, a fundamental reform is needed in the food industry and how it should be produced and prices must be set. The world is experiencing an unjust food crisis due to multiple reasons and this has to be changed in nutshell.

DIPLOMACY

US, Britain, and Türkiye excluded from EU armament fund

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US, UK, and Turkish arms companies will be excluded from the EU’s new €150 billion defense fund unless their countries sign defense and security agreements with Brussels.

According to the Financial Times (FT), officials stated on Wednesday that the planned fund for arms spending would only be open to EU defense companies and those from third countries that have defense agreements with the bloc.

Officials added that advanced weapons systems where a third country has “design authority” (restrictions on construction or the use of specific components) or controls the end-use would also be excluded from the fund.

This would exclude the US Patriot air and missile defense platform, manufactured by defense company RTX, and other US weapons systems where Washington has restrictions on where they can be used.

This policy is seen as a victory for France and other countries that have called for a “Buy European” approach to the continent’s defense investments, amid fears caused by President Donald Trump regarding the long-term reliability of the US as a defense partner and supplier.

At least 65% of the products’ costs must be spent in the EU, Norway, and Ukraine. EU member states will not be able to spend this money on products “where the use or destination of the weapon can be controlled.”

One official said that it would be a real problem if equipment purchased by countries could not be used because a third country objected.

The UK has lobbied extensively to be involved in this initiative, particularly given its key role in the European “coalition of the willing,” which aims to strengthen the continent’s defense capabilities.

UK defense companies such as BAE Systems and Babcock International are deeply integrated into the defense industries of EU countries like Italy and Sweden.

Officials stated that if third countries like the US, Britain, and Türkiye want to participate in this initiative, they must sign a defense and security partnership with the EU.

Negotiations for such an agreement between London and Brussels have begun but have been stalled by demands for a larger EU-UK agreement that includes contentious issues such as fishing rights and immigration.

Excluding Britain and Türkiye could create significant distress for major European defense companies with close ties to manufacturers or suppliers in these markets.

When asked about his country’s position on the new EU fund rules on Tuesday, a British official said, “We stand ready to work together on European defense in the interests of wider European security, to avoid fragmentation in European defense markets, and to create legal structures that allow member states to partner with third countries.”

A senior UK defense sector official said this was a “significant concern,” adding, “We see a huge amount of opportunity, and it is right that the UK is seen as part of Europe. But if the EU and particularly France are going to play this with a transactional approach, it undermines a common and united European philosophy in terms of defense and security.”

France’s previous efforts to limit defense spending to only EU companies faced strong resistance from countries such as Germany, Italy, Sweden, and the Netherlands, which have close ties with defense manufacturers outside the EU.

The proposal needs to be approved by a majority of EU countries. Officials said that under the plan’s terms, EU countries can spend the funds on products using components from Norway, South Korea, Japan, Albania, Moldova, North Macedonia, and Ukraine.

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World media cover İmamoğlu arrest amid Turkish turmoil

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The detention of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu early this morning, amid allegations of “supporting terrorism through a city consensus” and “corruption,” continues to resonate globally.

In Western media, İmamoğlu’s detention is largely viewed as a move ahead of potential presidential elections and against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s most significant rival.

For example, the Financial Times, in its article titled “Turkish police detain Erdoğan’s main political rival,” stated, “State media said İmamoğlu’s detention on Wednesday was part of an investigation into alleged terror links, while the opposition called the move a ‘coup attempt,’ and the arrest sent the Turkish currency and markets tumbling.”

Investment management firm T Rowe Price analyst Tomasz Wieladek told the FT that the detention was “a wake-up call for everyone.”

Wieladek suggested that the Turkish Central Bank has “limited firepower” to defend the lira, adding, “Assets will probably continue to be sold off further.”

Bloomberg reported that Turkish banks sold $8 billion to support the lira from morning to midday.

Highlighting the market turmoil since morning, Bloomberg noted in another report, “Turkish markets were rattled on Wednesday after the detention of a top rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, stoking concern that political turmoil risks undermining recent investor-friendly economic policies.”

Nick Rees, macro research director at Monex Europe in London, was quoted in the report, saying, “This has been a bit of a shock to the system. Markets had become increasingly complacent, and now that spell has been broken, dramatic consequences are unfolding as traders reprice Türkiye’s political risk premiums.”

Henrik Gullberg from Coex Partners said the magnitude of the move was “surprising,” but news of political pressure was less so, adding, “Practically, I’m not sure this changes much in terms of market-sensitive economic policies.”

The report also noted that the Borsa Istanbul 100 Index fell by approximately 7% at the opening, while the yield on 10-year government bonds increased by 139 basis points to 29.58%.

Germany’s Der Spiegel, in its article titled “Turkish authorities arrest Erdoğan’s most important opponent,” stated, “Turkish authorities are expanding their repressive measures against Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.”

The report highlights that İmamoğlu, along with Ankara Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Mansur Yavaş, is seen as Erdoğan’s strongest rival.

According to DW Turkish, İmamoğlu’s detention also resonated widely in German politics. The development was assessed as an “attempt by Erdoğan to disable his main rival” and warned that it could have serious consequences.

SPD Co-Chairman Lars Klingbeil harshly criticized İmamoğlu’s detention as a “severe attack on democracy in Türkiye.”

Klingbeil stated, “The Turkish government is thus showing that it no longer wants fair elections and an independent rule of law. The steps taken are disproportionate and destroy trust and credibility. This will have dramatic consequences for the entire country.”

Max Lucks, a member of the German Federal Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee and Chairman of the German-Turkish Parliamentary Group, also described İmamoğlu’s detention as an attack on fair elections and fair competition in light of the presidential elections.

The British The Times, in its article titled “Istanbul Mayor arrested as Erdoğan cracks down on election rivals,” stated, “Protests have been banned across the city after the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, seen as the Turkish leader’s biggest threat for the presidency.”

A report in Tokyo-based Nikkei Asia also claimed that Turkish authorities had detained “Erdoğan’s main rival,” noting that the opposition described the move as a “coup.”

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Turkish banks sell $8 billion to support lira after Imamoglu detention

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Bloomberg, citing individuals with direct knowledge of the matter, reported that Turkish credit institutions sold approximately $8 billion by noon on Wednesday to support the lira after the currency fell by around 11% following the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.

The individuals, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, stated that the intervention in the lira market was carried out through multiple credit institutions.

Bloomberg could not obtain comment from the Central Bank.

As of 12:45 PM, the lira was trading at 38.8565 per dollar, down 5.5%.

Following market turmoil, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek tweeted, “Everything necessary is being done to ensure the healthy functioning of the markets. The economic program we are implementing continues with determination.”

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