Diplomacy
US military prepares to seize Russian tanker as UK fears retaliation
The UK government is concerned that an operation to be organized by the US military to seize a Russian-flagged oil tanker 200 miles off British waters could lead to Russian retaliation.
The US military is tracking the tanker, which set off from Venezuela to break a naval blockade and is currently located in the North Atlantic.
With the ship’s approach, US forces, including AC-130 gunships, have been seen arriving at a base in the UK in recent days. According to data provided by Starboard Maritime Intelligence, the tanker will enter European waters within a few hours.
European security officials informed The i Paper that urgent talks are ongoing to prevent the situation from escalating.
According to a maritime security source aware of the discussions, the talks are taking place between Britain and its European allies.
Officials said there is a “fear” that any attempt at seizure could spiral out of control.
An attempt to seize a ship registered in Russia could lead to major tension with Moscow, yet the Trump administration is reportedly preparing plans to seize the vessel.
The source, speaking to The i Paper, said: “Most countries fear a direct conflict with Russia. Discussions are ongoing at a bilateral level on how to act. I know that Denmark and Britain are discussing this issue. If the Russian ship is seized, Russia is expected to take action.”
According to The Times, the shadow tanker is being monitored by Royal Air Force (RAF) aircraft.
The Guyana-flagged tanker named Bella 1 was preparing to receive oil from Venezuela last month, but disappeared from tracking systems following a failed intervention by US Coast Guard forces.
When it reappeared on open-source tracking systems in the middle of the Atlantic, its name had been changed to Marinera and it appeared as registered in Russia. The crew had also drawn a crude Russian flag on the side of the ship.
According to the New York Times, this vessel is one of 16 oil tankers that have attempted to evade the naval blockade imposed by the US on Venezuela in recent days. Since last month, two other oil tankers have been stopped by US forces for trading in Venezuelan oil.
On 10 December, the tanker named Skipper was stopped and seized by US Coast Guard forces. On 20 December, the vessel Centuries was stopped and searched, but not seized.
A US surveillance aircraft taking off from the RAF Mildenhall base in Suffolk continued to track the tanker as it crossed the Atlantic, and according to open-source flight data, an MH-47G Chinook helicopter, specifically designed for US military special operations forces, conducted a test flight over the UK on Monday.
Two AC-130 gunships were also seen landing at Mildenhall over the weekend, and a series of CS-17 transport aircraft were recorded landing as well.
This situation has led to speculation that the US is strengthening its presence in preparation for seizing the ship.
This week, further low-altitude test flights were carried out by other US special forces aircraft between RAF Fairford and RAF Mildenhall in Norfolk.
The US tracking of the Marinera has caused a major diplomatic headache for British and European officials and has led to bilateral talks on how best to act after the White House openly criticized Europe’s ability to counter hostile countries.
Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), all states are granted the right of innocent passage for their ships through territorial waters. However, under the same convention, a ship cannot change its flag during a voyage; this essentially makes the Marinera stateless under international law and therefore subject to seizure.
It was reported that Russia made a diplomatic request to the US last month to stop surveillance activities toward the tanker, but the US tracking continues.
In May, Estonia’s attempt to board the sanctioned Russian “shadow fleet” tanker Jaguar caused tension when Russia sent a fighter jet into Estonian airspace to protect the ship. While the incident led NATO to scramble jets, Estonia removed the Jaguar from its waters.
On the other hand, CBS News reported that Russia has assigned naval forces to escort the oil tanker being tracked by US forces in the Atlantic.
The tanker was thought to be between Scotland and Iceland on Tuesday. Russia announced that it is “watching the situation” around the ship “with concern.”
Two US officials told CBS News early Tuesday that American forces plan to board the ship and that Washington prefers seizing the vessel rather than sinking it.
On Tuesday, the US military’s Southern Command announced on social media that it is “ready to support US government agency partners to stand against sanctioned vessels and actors passing through this region.”
The Command stated, “Our naval forces are vigilant, agile, and ready to track ships of interest. When the call comes, we will be there.”
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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