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US officials voice alarm over Saudi-Türkiye defense talks as Riyadh eyes KAAN fighter

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Saudi Arabia’s strategic pivot toward diversifying its defense procurement is causing friction within the Trump administration, with US officials expressing growing concern over Riyadh’s burgeoning aerospace partnership with Türkiye.

According to reports from Middle East Eye (MEE), current and former US officials are increasingly wary that the Kingdom’s defense negotiations with Ankara could erode Washington’s long-standing dominance in the Saudi arms market.

The friction comes despite a high-profile reception for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House in November. During that visit, President Donald Trump announced that Saudi Arabia would move forward with the acquisition of advanced F-35 stealth fighters as part of a comprehensive strategic defense agreement. However, the administration has since sought urgent clarity regarding Riyadh’s parallel talks with regional competitors.

While Saudi Arabia reportedly provided assurances to Washington that it would not proceed with the purchase of Pakistan’s JF-17 Thunder fighter, it has notably withheld similar guarantees regarding its potential participation in Türkiye’s fifth-generation KAAN fighter program.

The prospect of a Saudi-Turkish jet deal has met with skepticism among former Trump administration defense officials. Bilal Saab, who held senior defense roles during Trump’s first term, questioned the operational logic of the move.

“The Saudi inventory is already exceptionally robust,” Saab noted. “I struggle to see where a Turkish fighter fits into this architecture. They already operate the world’s most advanced F-15s—in some respects superior to those in the US inventory. They have the Eurofighter Typhoon, and they are slated to receive the F-35.”

A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, clarified that while Washington does not view the KAAN as a direct replacement for the F-35, it views the potential deal as “leaving cash on the table” that could otherwise be spent on US hardware. The administration’s prevailing message to Riyadh has been blunt: “What specific need is not being met by the US that necessitates going to Türkiye for the KAAN?”

According to officials, the Trump administration remains committed to a “sole provider” doctrine, prioritizing US exports as the primary pillar of bilateral defense ties.

Though analysts do not anticipate a full-scale diplomatic crisis, the tension underscores a fundamental clash between the Trump administration’s “zero-sum” economic nationalism and the Middle East’s shift toward multipolar defense alliances.

Hesham Alghannam of the Naif Arab University for Security Sciences in Riyadh argued that the Kingdom’s interest in the KAAN program is aimed at expanding strategic options rather than replacing the US as its primary ally. However, he warned that if Washington continues to view such moves solely through the lens of competition, it may be interpreted as a fundamental shift in Riyadh’s orientation.

The momentum for the partnership appears to be building. During a visit to Saudi Arabia in February, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that a joint investment agreement for the KAAN could be “signed at any moment.” A model of the aircraft, emblazoned with Saudi insignia, was prominently displayed at the World Defense Show in Riyadh. Officials from Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) suggested a potential deal could involve the production of between 20 and 50 aircraft.

While Türkiye markets the KAAN as an indigenous project, the platform currently relies on General Electric F110 engines, meaning any export to Riyadh would still require the ultimate approval of the US Congress.

The F-35 remains the centerpiece of the regional arms race. While President Trump promised Riyadh parity with Israel’s stealth capabilities, Israel continues to exercise a de facto “Qualitative Military Edge” (QME) veto over regional sales. In November, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed to have received US assurances that any F-35s delivered to Saudi Arabia would feature reduced specifications compared to Israel’s fleet.

This dynamic has left the Trump administration caught between the influential pro-Israel lobby and its own desire to maximize Gulf exports. Consequently, Riyadh has utilized alternative negotiations to bolster its leverage. Analysts point to Saudi Arabia’s previous interest in the Russian S-400 system—which preceded its purchase of the US THAAD system—as evidence of this “hedging” strategy.

Türkiye’s competitive advantage lies in its willingness to offer joint production and technology transfer. Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030, Riyadh aims to localize 50% of its defense spending. The perceived slow pace of technology sharing from Washington has made Ankara’s more flexible partnership model increasingly attractive.

The defense talks also signal a broader geopolitical recalibration. As Riyadh finds itself at odds with the UAE on files ranging from Sudan to Yemen, it has moved to strengthen ties with a new bloc including Pakistan, Türkiye, Qatar, and Egypt.

Cinzia Bianco of the European Council on Foreign Relations noted that while the F-35 deal has been decoupled from the Israel normalization process, Israeli influence in Washington remains a significant hurdle. Despite these complications, sources indicate Riyadh remains prepared to acquire the F-35 even with downgraded specifications, provided it can simultaneously secure indigenous production capabilities through partners like Türkiye.

Middle East

Qatar and UAE LNG tankers go dark in Strait of Hormuz to evade security risks

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Qatar and United Arab Emirates liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers are turning off their transponders in the Strait of Hormuz, shifting their logistical strategies in response to ongoing military conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the strategic waterway.

According to a Bloomberg report citing industry sources and vessel-tracking data, as time and patience run thin for both nations, tankers have begun operating under radio silence to conceal their movements and secure their LNG shipments.

The report noted that neither Qatar nor Abu Dhabi, the federal emirate of the UAE, is subject to international sanctions. Despite this, state-owned QatarEnergy and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) are employing these “going dark” tactics to minimize security risks for their vessels and crews transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Vessel-tracking data revealed that in May, at least four Qatari LNG vessels and four tankers linked to Abu Dhabi-based ADNOC transited the Strait of Hormuz without transmitting tracking signals. Sources speaking to Bloomberg stated that Qatari authorities requested captains of state-owned and chartered tankers to turn off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders when navigating around the Ras Laffan port—the world’s largest LNG export terminal—as well as when transiting or exiting the Persian Gulf.

The implemented security measures extend beyond turning off transponders. Sources reported that vessels have been instructed to transit the gulf in pairs to enhance security, and tanker captains who refused to comply with the “shadow” navigation protocols have been replaced.

Industry sources speaking to Bloomberg warned that the increase in covert transits undermines the fundamental rules of international maritime trade and transforms these shipping routes into high-risk areas.

They emphasized that until recently, every cargo in the LNG sector could be tracked in real time, but these newly adopted tactics have eliminated that transparency.

Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at energy consultancy MST Marquee, commented on the situation, saying: “It is entirely natural for Persian Gulf LNG producers to try to avoid Iranian attacks and consequently adopt shadow fleet methods. This could persist as long as Iran continues to control and threaten transits through the Strait of Hormuz. This practice may continue for a long time even after a peace agreement is signed.”

Following the start of US and Israeli attacks on Iran, the Tehran government closed the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for approximately 20% of global oil shipments and 30% of global liquefied natural gas.

After negotiations in Islamabad failed, US President Donald Trump announced on April 13 that he would impose a blockade on Iranian ports. In late May, he announced that the blockade was lifted as part of the planned peace treaty process with Tehran.

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Israeli defense exports hit record $19.2 billion fueled by regional conflicts

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The Israeli Ministry of Defense has announced that international demand for military systems manufactured in the country and deployed in regional conflicts has reached unprecedented levels.

In an official statement, the ministry declared that exports of military equipment and weaponry have hit an all-time high for the fifth consecutive year.

According to the disclosed data, export volume reached $19.2 billion in 2025, representing an approximate 30% increase compared to the previous year. The figures demonstrate that the country’s defense exports have doubled over the past five years and quadrupled over the past decade.

Data shared by the ministry indicates that missile, rocket, and air defense systems secured the largest share of military sales contracts signed throughout 2025.

Sales in this sector accounted for 29% of the total trade volume. The ministry noted that the vast majority of these agreements fell into the category of “mega-contracts”—each valued at a minimum of $100 million—and that these large-scale deals constituted 53% of the total export volume.

The Ministry of Defense directly attributed this export growth to ongoing regional military operations.

The statement argued that global demand was driven by results achieved on the ground and the “combat-proven” performance of Israeli-made systems across all fronts, including the “Rising Lion” operation launched against Iran in June 2025.

Since October 7, 2023, Israel has conducted simultaneous military operations across multiple fronts in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.

The military equipment and ammunition described as “combat-tested” in the ministry’s report continue to be deployed in active conflict zones, most notably in Lebanon.

Among the defense firms highlighted during this period is the Israel-based company Xtend, which has drawn attention for its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Systems developed by the company have reportedly been utilized in operations in Gaza and for targeted assassinations. International reports revealed that an Xtend UAV was used to locate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed in October 2024.

Earlier in the year, Eric Trump, son of US President Donald Trump, announced that he would make significant investments in Xtend’s technology and support the company’s merger with the Florida-based JFB Construction Holdings.

Meanwhile, airstrikes and bombings conducted by the Israeli military continue to drive up civilian casualties in Gaza and Lebanon. In Lebanon alone, attacks over the past few months have claimed more than 3,400 lives. Thousands of deaths have also been reported in US-backed military operations carried out in Iran.

Studies published in the medical journal The Lancet project that the total death toll in Gaza, when including both direct and indirect fatalities, could reach hundreds of thousands.

During this period, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has supported Israel’s operations, emerged as one of the largest buyers of Israeli-origin weapons.

The Gulf nation is reported to have procured billions of dollars in military equipment from Israel over the past five years. According to US sources, the Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv administrations have established a joint fund to develop and procure new weapons systems.

On the other hand, as Tel Aviv continues to market its air defense systems globally, military tensions along the Lebanese border persist.

Hizbullah kamikaze drones have reportedly targeted Iron Dome batteries positioned at Israeli locations near the Lebanese border. The Israeli military has reportedly faced difficulties intercepting these attacks, with dozens of Israeli soldiers killed in Hizbullah strikes launched since March 2.

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Report challenges official assessments of damage from Iranian attacks on US military assets

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BBC Verify, the verification unit of the BBC, published a detailed investigation on June 1 based on satellite imagery and video analysis that found Iranian retaliatory strikes had successfully hit and damaged at least 20 US military facilities across the Middle East since the start of the war launched against Iran by the United States and Israel.

The findings suggest that the scale and accuracy of Iran’s retaliatory attacks were significantly greater than previously acknowledged by US officials. Some independent analysts estimate that the number of affected bases may be as high as 28.

The military facilities targeted were reportedly spread across eight Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain and Oman.

Material losses in the region are said to include three THAAD missile defense batteries, each valued at approximately $1 billion and regarded as a cornerstone of the regional defense network.

Expert assessments also identified at least 42 aircraft that were destroyed or severely damaged, including F-35 fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper drones and an E-3 Sentry airborne early warning and surveillance aircraft valued at $700 million.

According to military analysts, Iran achieved these results by altering its tactics. Rather than relying on large-scale, high-volume barrages, Tehran reportedly shifted to using smaller, more precise salvos concentrated on high-value infrastructure targets.

The shift in strategy was said to have exploited what was described as a degree of complacency within the US military during the early stages of the conflict.

US military commanders reportedly failed to relocate aircraft and other military assets at strategic installations such as Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia despite previous attacks on those facilities, a factor that is said to have increased losses. Commenting on the strikes, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that the Middle East was no longer a “safe place” for US bases.

The White House had previously claimed that Iran’s military capabilities had been almost entirely eliminated.

However, the Pentagon’s latest estimates place the cost of the war at $29 billion.

A substantial portion of that expenditure is reportedly being directed toward repairing heavily damaged military equipment and replenishing significantly depleted munitions stockpiles. Former military officials have warned that damaged air defense systems in the region “cannot be replaced quickly or easily.”

The heavy consumption of interceptor missiles during the conflict has also left other US facilities across the Gulf increasingly vulnerable to future Iranian precision-guided missile attacks, according to the assessments cited.

The Washington administration is also reported to have sought restrictions on satellite imagery providers in an effort to conceal the extent of the damage and limit criticism.

However, the “smoking craters” and flattened aircraft hangars featured in the BBC report appear to contradict official US assertions, illustrating what the report described as the true scale of the destruction on the ground.

Iran also announced that it struck a US air base in Kuwait with missiles and drones on Sunday night in retaliation for attacks by US forces on Iranian military targets over the weekend, which Tehran said constituted a violation of the ceasefire.

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