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US overtakes China as Germany’s biggest trading partner

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The United States overtook China as Germany’s most important trading partner in the first quarter of this year, according to Reuters calculations based on official data from the Federal Statistical Office.

According to the data, Germany’s trade with the United States, the sum of exports and imports, totalled 63 billion euros ($68 billion) in the January-March period, while the figure for China was just under 60 billion euros.

With a volume of 253 billion euros, China was Germany’s largest trading partner for the eighth time in a row, a few hundred million dollars ahead of the US.

“While German exports to the US continued to rise due to the strong economy there, both exports to and imports from China fell,” said Commerzbank economist Vincent Stamer, explaining the change in the first quarter.

“China has moved up the value chain and is increasingly producing more complex goods itself, which it used to import from Germany. German companies are also increasingly producing locally instead of exporting goods from Germany to China,” Stamer said.

Germany has said it wants to reduce its trade with China, citing political differences and accusing Beijing of “unfair practices”. But Berlin has yet to take any major steps towards a policy of reducing dependency.

German imports of goods from China fell by almost 12 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier, while German exports to China fell by just over 1 per cent, according to Juergen Matthes of the German economic institute IW.

“The fact that the US economy exceeded expectations, while the Chinese economy performed worse than many had hoped, probably contributed to this,” Matthes said.

Sales to the US currently account for around 10 percent of German goods exports. China’s share, on the other hand, has fallen below 6 per cent, Matthes said.

On the other hand, Dirk Jandura, head of the BGA trade association, said: “If the White House administration changes after the US elections in November and moves further in the direction of closing markets, this process could come to a standstill,” pointing out that the trend of Germany’s trade route shifting across the Atlantic could stop.

DIPLOMACY

Argentina and the IMF: Negotiations begin for a new $44bn agreement

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Argentina is pursuing a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to replace its current $44 billion arrangement. The effort signals a significant shift in the country’s financial strategy under President Javier Milei’s administration.

IMF Chief Spokesperson Julie Kozack confirmed on Thursday that the Milei government is prioritizing the establishment of a new programme over completing the final reviews of the existing deal inherited from the previous administration. According to a Bloomberg report, Kozack stated, “The authorities have formally expressed their desire to move to a new programme, and negotiations are now underway.”

The discussions intensified following a visit earlier this month by officials from Economy Minister Luis Caputo’s office and the central bank to Washington, where they engaged with IMF representatives.

The central question in the negotiations revolves around whether the IMF will extend additional financing beyond the $44 billion already allocated to Argentina. Milei had previously suggested an additional $15 billion, although he has not reiterated this figure recently. However, Caputo indicated this week that new funding could be included as part of the prospective programme.

If the parties reach an agreement, it would mark Argentina’s 23rd programme with the IMF since 1958 and its third since 2018. Historically, the IMF’s interventions in Argentina have faced criticism, as many past agreements failed to stabilize the economy. Successive governments often violated programme objectives, raising doubts about the effectiveness of IMF support in the country.

President Milei and his chief negotiator, Caputo, have a history of strained relations with the IMF. Earlier this year, Milei publicly criticized Rodrigo Valdes, one of the IMF’s senior officials, leading to Valdes stepping back from negotiations. Similarly, Caputo clashed with the IMF during his tenure as finance minister in 2018, particularly over exchange rate policies, which eventually prompted his resignation after a short stint as central bank governor.

Despite these tensions, the IMF has commended the Milei administration for implementing measures to cut spending, reduce inflation, and narrow gaps between the country’s various exchange rates.

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DIPLOMACY

Trump threatens tariffs on the EU over energy purchases

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has issued a warning to the European Union (EU), stating that the bloc may face tariffs if it does not increase its purchases of U.S. oil and gas on a “large scale.”

“I told the European Union that they must close the enormous gap with the United States by buying our oil and gas on a large scale. Otherwise, TARIFFS!!! in every way!!!” Trump declared in a post on the Truth Social platform on Friday.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen previously suggested that the EU could explore the possibility of importing more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. “We still buy a lot of LNG from Russia, and why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper for us and lowers our energy prices?” von der Leyen remarked to reporters in November.

An EU official, speaking to the Financial Times (FT), noted the peculiarity of Trump’s threat, given von der Leyen’s earlier openness to the idea of increasing LNG imports from the U.S.

Currently, the United States is Europe’s largest supplier of LNG, though Russia remains the EU’s second-largest source. The possibility of replacing Russian LNG with U.S. imports aligns with the EU’s efforts to diversify its energy sources.

Trump has also floated the possibility of a general tariff of up to 20% on all non-Chinese imports, which could have significant implications for EU-U.S. trade relations.

In November, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde urged European leaders to engage with the U.S. on trade matters, including tariffs, and to consider purchasing more U.S.-manufactured goods. This call for cooperation echoes measures taken during Trump’s first term, when then-European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker pledged to buy more U.S. gas to avert the risk of a trade war.

Global oil prices have shown sensitivity to these developments. On Friday, international oil benchmark Brent crude prices dropped 0.4% to $72.61 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also fell 0.4%, trading at $69.14 per barrel.

The U.S., currently the world’s largest producer of crude oil and exporter of LNG, has been strengthening its energy trade partnerships. Buyers, including the EU and Vietnam, are reportedly considering increased fuel purchases from the U.S., partly to mitigate the risk of potential tariffs.

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DIPLOMACY

London pushes for continued U.S. support to Ukraine amid leadership transition

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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged Donald Trump on Wednesday to ensure that Western allies “stand together” in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.

During a phone call with the U.S. president-elect, their second conversation since Trump’s electoral victory in November, Starmer emphasized the importance of unified support for Ukraine, stating that “allies must stand with Ukraine… and ensure that Ukraine is in the strongest possible position.”

A spokesperson for the British Prime Minister’s Office described the discussion as highlighting a “shared desire to strengthen the close and historic relationship between the United Kingdom and the United States.”

Starmer began the call by congratulating Trump on his recent team appointments. Trump responded by “warmly recounting” his recent meeting with Prince William, Prince of Wales, in Paris earlier this month, according to the Prime Minister’s Office.

As Trump prepares to take office next month, he has expressed intentions to seek a deal to end the war in Ukraine, though he has also publicly criticized certain Western policies, including the approval of missile supplies to Ukraine for use on Russian soil.

In an interview with The Sun on Tuesday, Starmer expressed hope to revive trade talks with the incoming U.S. administration. These negotiations had stalled two years ago under President Joe Biden. The leaders also expressed mutual anticipation of meeting in person “at the first opportunity.” According to the i newspaper, Starmer may visit the U.S. in early February.

Meanwhile, The Telegraph reported that Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, conducted private meetings with senior members of Trump’s team earlier this month. McSweeney traveled to Florida to meet Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff-designate, who played a pivotal role in managing his re-election campaign. He also held discussions in Washington with Congressman Mike Waltz, Trump’s incoming National Security Adviser.

A senior source in the Prime Minister’s Office described the interactions as “very warm,” adding that “President Trump has a warm approach to the UK. As the year draws to a close, the Starmer team is confident that the UK is well-placed for a strong bilateral relationship with the new president.”

Starmer’s delegation to the U.S., which began on December 2, included Jonathan Powell, former chief of staff to Tony Blair and now Starmer’s national security adviser. Together with McSweeney, Powell engaged in policy discussions on Ukraine, China, and the Middle East, identifying areas of alignment and divergence between the two leaders.

According to The Telegraph, those close to Starmer believe Trump is currently in “listening mode” on Ukraine, carefully evaluating strategies to fulfill his campaign promise of resolving the conflict “on day one” of his presidency.

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