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US slashes tariffs on Indian goods to 18% as New Delhi agrees to halt Russian oil imports

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US President Donald Trump announced a landmark trade agreement with India on Monday, marking a significant shift in bilateral relations. Under the deal, the US will slash tariffs on Indian-origin goods from 50% to 18% in exchange for New Delhi halting its purchases of Russian oil and reducing long-standing trade barriers.

Trump unveiled the agreement via social media following a telephone conversation with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He further noted that India will transition its oil procurement to the US and potentially Venezuela.

A White House official told Reuters that the US has withdrawn a punitive 25% supplemental tax previously imposed on all Indian imports due to the country’s continued purchase of Russian crude. This levy had been applied on top of an existing 25% “reciprocal” tariff.

Following the announcement, shares of major Indian companies traded in the US surged. IT consultancy firm Infosys closed the day up 4.3%, while Wipro climbed 6.8%. HDFC Bank gained 4.4%, and the iShares MSCI India exchange-traded fund rose 3%.

The positive momentum from Trump’s announcement, combined with optimistic sentiment surrounding semiconductor manufacturers and artificial intelligence, helped propel major indices into positive territory during the trading session.

Trump also stated that Modi committed India to “BUY AMERICAN at a much higher level.” He added that India has pledged to purchase more than $500 billion in energy from the US, including coal, alongside commitments to acquire technology, agricultural products, and other goods.

“They will also reduce the tariffs and non-tariff barriers they apply against the US to ZERO,” Trump said of India’s commitments.

According to World Trade Organization (WTO) data, India maintained some of the highest tariffs globally before Trump returned to office and raised US tariff rates to double digits last year. India’s simple applied rate stood at 15.6%, while the effectively applied tariff rate was 8.2%.

Trump’s Truth Social post lacked critical specifics, such as the effective date for the reduced tariffs, the deadline for India to terminate Russian oil imports, the specific scope of the trade barrier reductions, and the exact list of US products India has committed to purchasing.

By late Monday, the White House had not yet issued the executive order or Federal Register notice required to formalize these changes.

While a White House spokesperson declined to provide additional details, India’s ministries of trade and foreign affairs did not immediately respond to inquiries sent after business hours. The Russian Embassy in Washington also did not immediately return requests for comment.

Previous agreements with other major Asian trading partners, such as Japan and South Korea, included specific investment commitments in US industries totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. However, the announcement regarding India made no mention of specific investment pledges.

Madhavi Arora, an economist at Emkay Global, noted that the deal generally brings India “in line with its Asian peers regarding tariff rates,” which range between 15% and 19%. She added that the agreement would likely alleviate the disproportionate pressure on Indian exports and the rupee.

Indian markets have been hit hard since Washington first implemented the heightened tariffs, becoming the worst-performing emerging market in 2025. This period saw record levels of foreign capital outflows.

US business groups responded to the announcement with a mix of caution and criticism. The US Chamber of Commerce, which has long advocated for a market-opening trade deal with India, characterized Trump’s statement as progress toward that goal.

“We are optimistic that this is the first step toward a more comprehensive trade agreement,” Chamber President Suzanne Clark said in a statement. “This deal will open doors to further increase private sector cooperation, and we look forward to reviewing the details.”

Conversely, “We Pay the Tariffs,” a coalition representing more than 800 small businesses, urged Americans not to celebrate the deal. The group described the agreement as a “600% tax increase for American businesses compared to 2024.” The coalition pointed out that US tariffs on Indian imports were approximately 2% to 3% at that time, whereas they will now stand at 18%, with the potential to rise further if India does not fully decouple from Russian oil.

Modi expressed his enthusiasm on X, stating, “It was great to speak with my dear friend President Trump today. I am pleased that ‘Made in India’ products will now face a tariff reduced to 18%.” He added, “A big thank you to President Trump on behalf of the 1.4 billion people of India for this great announcement.”

Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal stated that the agreement would bring the US and Indian economies closer together.

“This agreement creates unprecedented opportunities for farmers, MSMEs, entrepreneurs, and skilled workers, in line with the vision to Make in India for the world, Design in India for the world, and Innovate in India for the world,” Goyal posted on X. “It will also assist India in acquiring technology from the US.”

The announcement comes less than a week after India signed a long-awaited trade agreement with the European Union. That EU deal is expected to eliminate or reduce tariffs on 96.6% of traded goods by value, though it excluded EU tariff reductions on soybeans, beef, sugar, rice, and dairy.

The Trump administration is moving quickly to finalize framework agreements with major trading partners ahead of a pending US Supreme Court decision on whether to overturn the “reciprocal” tariffs Trump implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Administration officials said last month that they reached an agreement with Taiwan and expect such deals to continue regardless of the court’s ruling. Officials claim that even if the court issues an annulment, the tariffs would be reimposed under alternative legal authorities.

On Saturday, Trump hinted at a potential deal for India to purchase Venezuelan oil following a US military raid in early January that resulted in the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

This trade breakthrough follows months of tense negotiations between the world’s two largest democracies.

Last August, Trump increased taxes on Indian imports to 50% in an effort to force New Delhi to abandon Russian oil. Earlier this month, he warned that the rate could increase again if India failed to curb its purchases.

Venezuelan oil acquisitions could help India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, substitute a portion of the crude it currently sources from Russia.

India is heavily dependent on energy imports, sourcing approximately 90% of its needs from abroad. Following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions on Russian energy, discounted Russian crude helped India lower its import costs.

However, India has recently begun to slow its Russian oil intake. Purchases in January stood at approximately 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd); this is expected to drop to approximately 1 million bpd in February and 800,000 bpd in March.

Diplomacy

FIFA abandons $4.2 billion commercial stake sale following widespread revolt

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FIFA and Gianni Infantino have backed down from plans to sell a stake in the organization’s commercial and event operations following widespread backlash.

In a statement issued late Friday night, the embattled FIFA president said:

“After carefully listening to all views, it has become clear that this project, regardless of the level of support, causes divisions that are now contrary to the interests of the objective originally established. Our goal has always been, and will always be, to unite and improve. As a result, this proposal will not be implemented.”

Infantino’s proposal met with fierce resistance from UEFA, CONCACAF, and the Asian Football Confederation (AFC).

UEFA indicated that all 55 of its members would boycott FIFA competitions, including the World Cup, if the plans remained on the table.

In its statement, FIFA noted that “nobody is selling football,” and while asserting that it “acknowledges and respects the feedback and concerns expressed publicly,” emphasized that it would continue to implement suggestions.

It added that it “reaffirms its commitment to an open and democratic process of consultation.”

Shortly after FIFA issued its statement, the AFC released its own declaration of solidarity with UEFA and the Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF).

Infantino subsequently suffered two major internal blows.

First, his adviser Carlos Cordeiro resigned from his position, sharply criticizing the plan in a statement as “a bad deal for FIFA member associations, a bad deal for football, and a bad deal for the long-term future of the game.”

Then, FIFA Chief Operating Officer Kevin Lamour told the Associated Press that staff felt “deceived” by Infantino and that after raising the issue, he would “sleep better, even at the cost of losing his job.”

Lamour said:

“This is the project of a single person. Leaving aside that this project should not proceed… it is now time for the political leaders of world football to ask themselves the right questions and make the right decisions.”

These developments left Infantino cornered, and by Friday afternoon, numerous figures within the organization—speaking to The Athletic on condition of anonymity to protect their jobs—believed it was no longer a question of “if” the cord would be cut, but “when.”

Joshua Kushner’s venture capital firm Thrive had not withdrawn from the deal as of Friday night, but that became moot when FIFA management ultimately decided to kill the project via a public statement.

Joshua Kushner is the brother of Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of Donald Trump.

On Tuesday, world football’s governing body had announced its intention to establish FIFA Forward Enterprises (FFE), a new private entity to manage its flagship events, including the World Cup and the Club World Cup, with plans to sell a 21% minority stake in FFE to external investors.

The sale was targeted to generate $4.2 billion (£3.2 billion) in revenue. FIFA stated that this amount could be immediately distributed to its 211 member associations under a new funding stream named the “FIFA Fast-Forward Program” (FFFP).

Under the plan, FIFA’s total development funding would have exceeded $10 billion over the next four years.

Despite mounting criticism in recent days, FIFA confirmed that if member associations opposed the FFE plan but the proposal was accepted, the dissenting federations would each receive $20 million (£14.9 million) for the 2027–30 cycle, regardless of whether shares in FFE were sold to private investors (to be followed by $22 million for 2031–34 and $24 million for 2035–38).

However, had a given member association accepted the FFE proposal, it would have received $40 million for the 2027–30 period, with subsequent payouts remaining the same.

The three confederations that explicitly took a stand against FIFA’s plan represent 137 of the 211 FIFA member associations.

FIFA had stated that for the proposal to move forward, it required the approval of a majority of the 211 member associations as well as the 37-member FIFA Council, which consists of Infantino and eight FIFA vice presidents.

Strategic reactions and leadership crisis

South American football confederation CONMEBOL did not reject the plans in a statement on Friday, but noted that financial and commercial decisions “must always serve the interests of football and never take precedence over the essence of the game.”

According to a report by The Athletic, Infantino’s future leadership of FIFA was called into question during UEFA and CONCACAF meetings held on Thursday.

Infantino assumed the FIFA presidency in February 2016, succeeding Sepp Blatter, and was expected to run unopposed in the next election scheduled for March 2027.

There is also talk among European officials of putting forward Nasser Al-Khelaifi, the Qatari CEO of beIN Media, to run against Infantino.

Lise Klaveness, President of the Norwegian Football Federation, told VG: “My clear impression right now is that he has suffered a major loss of trust. We did not vote for him last time and were skeptical about this. There are many good aspects to FIFA, but if you take a lax approach to governance principles and rules, you lose trust quickly.”

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Defense Priorities director warns US air strategy in Middle East faces tactical limits

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The collapse of a tentative memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, coupled with the diminishing strategic returns of American air power, has left the United States locked in an unsustainable, low-intensity conflict with Iran, according to Benjamin Friedman, Policy Director at the Washington-based think tank Defense Priorities.

Speaking in an interview on the YouTube channel Harici with host Sarp Sinan Hacır, Friedman attributed the failure of the short-lived US-Iran memorandum primarily to the Trump administration’s diplomatic missteps, vague draft language, and unrealistic expectations regarding a comprehensive settlement.

“Both sides really deserve some blame, but the Trump administration deserves the bulk of the blame for drafting an agreement that was so vague on key terms,” Friedman said, citing ambiguities surrounding the timeline for unfreezing Iranian assets and the scope of American commitments to restrain Israeli military operations in Lebanon.

Friedman emphasized that deep-seated mistrust in Tehran, exacerbated by repeated instances where diplomatic engagement was followed by Israeli or American military strikes, led Iranian negotiators to adopt an unyielding posture. At the same time, he noted that Iran likely miscalculated by using disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to aggressively force leverage.

“The Trump administration remained intent on this sort of grand bargain that would restrain Iran seeking weapons development… and I think they continue to misread the Iranian willingness to sign that kind of deal,” Friedman noted, adding that Tehran viewed its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz as essential despite the risk of provoking further strikes.

Expressing deep skepticism over the prospects for a lasting diplomatic breakthrough, Friedman criticized the administration’s reliance on informal envoys such as Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner over professional diplomatic channels, predicting that the baseline outcome will remain an unpredictable, episodic conflict.

“What’s more likely is a kind of on-off-again kind of war—sort of what we’re in now, where we have occasional strikes, with the United States perhaps by accident adopting the Israeli model of ‘mowing the lawn’ periodically,” Friedman said.

Addressing the efficacy of US air power, Friedman argued that military operations against Iranian targets have reached a point of diminishing returns. While early strikes successfully eliminated critical high-value assets—such as over-the-horizon radar systems that targeted anti-ship missiles—Iran’s ballistic missile and long-range drone capabilities remain largely intact and operational.

He pointed to a recent strike on a base hosting US personnel in Jordan, launched from western Iran over a distance exceeding 1,000 kilometers, as evidence of Tehran’s sustained strike precision and the tactical limits of American interdiction efforts.

“The war is a failure for air power even in a tactical sense,” Friedman stated. “Initially, we looked at it and said we had a lot of success in destroying targets, but as more information came out, it turned out they had maybe more than half of their missiles and launchers survive the initial phase of the war.”

Friedman observed that the global proliferation of low-cost, high-precision guidance technology has permanently altered the strategic landscape, neutralizing the traditional invulnerability of forward-deployed US installations. “The precise effects of air power that used to be almost a monopoly of the United States… is actually making our posture in the region less sustainable,” he said, warning that similar vulnerabilities would be vastly amplified in any potential high-intensity conflict with China.

As an alternative to open-ended military engagement, Friedman suggested that Washington consider a complete military withdrawal from the region, even if it entails accepting Iranian transit fees on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. “The cost of preventing that through perpetual outbursts of warfare is much higher than just accepting it,” he noted.

Turning to regional dynamics, Friedman addressed Israel’s current absence from active strike operations against Iran, characterizing it as a calculated move to preserve its own air defense interceptors while relying on Washington to bear the operational and political burdens of containment.

On European security and the broader alliance structure, Friedman offered a critical assessment of the NATO summit in Ankara and the administration’s “NATO 3.0” concept. He described the white paper led by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as an effort to coerce European states into escalating defense expenditures and purchasing American hardware under the threat of reduced security guarantees, rather than executing a structured, strategic US posture adjustment.

“This is not a real US withdrawal; it’s a kind of pressure to up your loyalty in a particular way,” Friedman said, noting that major European powers such as Germany, France, and the UK lack a compelling existential incentive to construct independent, large-scale conventional war-fighting capabilities.

Regarding bilateral relations with Ankara, Friedman noted that US-Turkish tensions have eased considerably following the shift in American posture in Syria and progress toward resolving long-standing friction points, including the F-35 program and S-400 procurement. He added that while Israeli leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed frustration over Washington’s constructive engagement with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the White House has maintained its strategic course despite pressure from domestic pro-Israel lobbying groups.

Addressing internal Republican Party dynamics, Friedman highlighted the evolving public stance of Vice President J.D. Vance, whose cautious criticism of Israeli influence and emphasis on divergent national interests reflects broader ideological shifts within the conservative base.

“Vance is more representative of the shift in the Republican Party,” Friedman said. “He’s criticizing them in a limited way and saying, ‘Our interests are different.’ From the perspective of those of us who would like the United States to have a more distant relationship from Israel, it’s progress.”

Looking ahead to the upcoming US midterm elections, Friedman anticipated that a loss of congressional control by the Republican Party would severely curtail the administration’s domestic executive overreach, though its structural impact on foreign policy execution and Middle Eastern operations would remain comparatively limited.

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UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledges full support to Ukraine in meeting with Zelenskyy

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UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Portsmouth, England.

Zelenskyy is the first world leader Burnham has met in person since taking office, with the prime minister committing to building a “firm partnership” between the United Kingdom and Ukraine.

Demonstrating their support, the two leaders toured a military base in Portsmouth where 200 Ukrainian troops are currently undergoing naval training exercises.

Burnham described his meeting with the Ukrainian president as “warm” and said he plans to visit Ukraine soon.

“We will build this together and address the various issues President Zelenskyy is facing, many of which we discussed today,” Burnham said.

The meeting follows an announcement by London that it will share intellectual property rights to assist Kyiv’s war effort.

The new prime minister announced that the UK will share the “Stone Cloak” electronic warfare system—which is fitted to drones to prevent detection—and will assist Ukraine in mass-producing the technology.

Burnham has focused primarily on domestic matters since replacing Keir Starmer, who faced criticism from elements within his own party for spending too much time abroad and focusing heavily on foreign affairs.

However, Burnham sought to signal continuity in Britain’s policy toward Ukraine. In one of his first phone calls after becoming prime minister last week, Burnham invited Zelenskyy to visit the UK “as soon as possible.”

Starmer spent his final full day as prime minister in Kyiv, where he announced £255 million in funding for Ukraine.

Speaking to Sky on Monday, Zelenskyy said his telephone conversation with Burnham had been “very good.”

The Ukrainian leader noted that Starmer had previously assured him that “the new government would maintain the policy of supporting Ukraine during the war.”

The new prime minister told the Ukrainian leader it was “no coincidence” that he was his first international visitor since moving into Downing Street.

“The purpose of this is to send a very clear message. We stand 100% with Ukraine, I personally stand 100% with you, and I will fully deliver on every commitment this country has made to Ukraine,” Burnham said.

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