Diplomacy
US slashes tariffs on Indian goods to 18% as New Delhi agrees to halt Russian oil imports
US President Donald Trump announced a landmark trade agreement with India on Monday, marking a significant shift in bilateral relations. Under the deal, the US will slash tariffs on Indian-origin goods from 50% to 18% in exchange for New Delhi halting its purchases of Russian oil and reducing long-standing trade barriers.
Trump unveiled the agreement via social media following a telephone conversation with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He further noted that India will transition its oil procurement to the US and potentially Venezuela.
A White House official told Reuters that the US has withdrawn a punitive 25% supplemental tax previously imposed on all Indian imports due to the country’s continued purchase of Russian crude. This levy had been applied on top of an existing 25% “reciprocal” tariff.
Following the announcement, shares of major Indian companies traded in the US surged. IT consultancy firm Infosys closed the day up 4.3%, while Wipro climbed 6.8%. HDFC Bank gained 4.4%, and the iShares MSCI India exchange-traded fund rose 3%.
The positive momentum from Trump’s announcement, combined with optimistic sentiment surrounding semiconductor manufacturers and artificial intelligence, helped propel major indices into positive territory during the trading session.
Trump also stated that Modi committed India to “BUY AMERICAN at a much higher level.” He added that India has pledged to purchase more than $500 billion in energy from the US, including coal, alongside commitments to acquire technology, agricultural products, and other goods.
“They will also reduce the tariffs and non-tariff barriers they apply against the US to ZERO,” Trump said of India’s commitments.
According to World Trade Organization (WTO) data, India maintained some of the highest tariffs globally before Trump returned to office and raised US tariff rates to double digits last year. India’s simple applied rate stood at 15.6%, while the effectively applied tariff rate was 8.2%.
Trump’s Truth Social post lacked critical specifics, such as the effective date for the reduced tariffs, the deadline for India to terminate Russian oil imports, the specific scope of the trade barrier reductions, and the exact list of US products India has committed to purchasing.
By late Monday, the White House had not yet issued the executive order or Federal Register notice required to formalize these changes.
While a White House spokesperson declined to provide additional details, India’s ministries of trade and foreign affairs did not immediately respond to inquiries sent after business hours. The Russian Embassy in Washington also did not immediately return requests for comment.
Previous agreements with other major Asian trading partners, such as Japan and South Korea, included specific investment commitments in US industries totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. However, the announcement regarding India made no mention of specific investment pledges.
Madhavi Arora, an economist at Emkay Global, noted that the deal generally brings India “in line with its Asian peers regarding tariff rates,” which range between 15% and 19%. She added that the agreement would likely alleviate the disproportionate pressure on Indian exports and the rupee.
Indian markets have been hit hard since Washington first implemented the heightened tariffs, becoming the worst-performing emerging market in 2025. This period saw record levels of foreign capital outflows.
US business groups responded to the announcement with a mix of caution and criticism. The US Chamber of Commerce, which has long advocated for a market-opening trade deal with India, characterized Trump’s statement as progress toward that goal.
“We are optimistic that this is the first step toward a more comprehensive trade agreement,” Chamber President Suzanne Clark said in a statement. “This deal will open doors to further increase private sector cooperation, and we look forward to reviewing the details.”
Conversely, “We Pay the Tariffs,” a coalition representing more than 800 small businesses, urged Americans not to celebrate the deal. The group described the agreement as a “600% tax increase for American businesses compared to 2024.” The coalition pointed out that US tariffs on Indian imports were approximately 2% to 3% at that time, whereas they will now stand at 18%, with the potential to rise further if India does not fully decouple from Russian oil.
Modi expressed his enthusiasm on X, stating, “It was great to speak with my dear friend President Trump today. I am pleased that ‘Made in India’ products will now face a tariff reduced to 18%.” He added, “A big thank you to President Trump on behalf of the 1.4 billion people of India for this great announcement.”
Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal stated that the agreement would bring the US and Indian economies closer together.
“This agreement creates unprecedented opportunities for farmers, MSMEs, entrepreneurs, and skilled workers, in line with the vision to Make in India for the world, Design in India for the world, and Innovate in India for the world,” Goyal posted on X. “It will also assist India in acquiring technology from the US.”
The announcement comes less than a week after India signed a long-awaited trade agreement with the European Union. That EU deal is expected to eliminate or reduce tariffs on 96.6% of traded goods by value, though it excluded EU tariff reductions on soybeans, beef, sugar, rice, and dairy.
The Trump administration is moving quickly to finalize framework agreements with major trading partners ahead of a pending US Supreme Court decision on whether to overturn the “reciprocal” tariffs Trump implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
Administration officials said last month that they reached an agreement with Taiwan and expect such deals to continue regardless of the court’s ruling. Officials claim that even if the court issues an annulment, the tariffs would be reimposed under alternative legal authorities.
On Saturday, Trump hinted at a potential deal for India to purchase Venezuelan oil following a US military raid in early January that resulted in the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
This trade breakthrough follows months of tense negotiations between the world’s two largest democracies.
Last August, Trump increased taxes on Indian imports to 50% in an effort to force New Delhi to abandon Russian oil. Earlier this month, he warned that the rate could increase again if India failed to curb its purchases.
Venezuelan oil acquisitions could help India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, substitute a portion of the crude it currently sources from Russia.
India is heavily dependent on energy imports, sourcing approximately 90% of its needs from abroad. Following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions on Russian energy, discounted Russian crude helped India lower its import costs.
However, India has recently begun to slow its Russian oil intake. Purchases in January stood at approximately 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd); this is expected to drop to approximately 1 million bpd in February and 800,000 bpd in March.
Diplomacy
Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour
Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.
As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.
The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.
Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.
In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.
Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”
US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”
On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.
According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.
Diplomacy
Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.
According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.
Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.
The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.
Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.
He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.
The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.
On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.
In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.
In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.
The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.
Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.
In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.
“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”
Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.
He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.
Washington pledges to maintain defence support
Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.
“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.
Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.
“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.
Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks
In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.
He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.
Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”
Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.
The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.
In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.
The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.
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