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Venezuela’s Maduro wins third term

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Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro won the presidential election on 28 July, securing a third term in office.

The first bulletin from the country’s National Electoral Council (CNE) said Maduro had shown an “irreversible trend” by winning 51.2 per cent of the vote, while his main rival, opposition candidate Edmundo González, received 44.2 per cent.

Voter turnout in the presidential race was 59 per cent. The first announcement was made after 80 per cent of polling stations had been counted.

We call on everyone to respect the constitution, the law and the will of the people,’ said CNE president Elvis Amoroso at a midnight press conference on Sunday. Amoroso added that the results had been delayed due to ‘an attack on the transmission system’ and called on the authorities to investigate.

Maduro dedicates victory to Chávez

Maduro joined the jubilant crowd outside the Miraflores presidential palace, declaring the election ‘a victory for national independence’.

Addressing his supporters, the president said: ‘Fascism will not pass through the land of Bolívar and Chávez. This is a victory for peace, for stability and for our republic,’ he said.

Maduro called on the United States and other international actors to respect the results and not to interfere in the Caribbean country’s internal affairs.

The president dedicated the victory to former president Hugo Chávez, whose 70th birthday will be celebrated on Sunday, saying: ‘The Venezuelan people have never let you down!

US-backed opposition refuses to recognise results

María Corina Machado, a right-wing politician who led the opposition campaign, told reporters that González was Venezuela’s newly elected president and had won in every state.

We have won a landslide victory and everyone knows it,’ Machado said.

Machado called on his supporters to ‘defend the truth’ and said the armed forces must ‘ensure that the results are respected’.

Milei calls for ‘coup’

On the other hand, the Argentine government and its leader Javier Milei claimed that the elections in Venezuela were rigged and called on Nicolás Maduro to ‘respect the will of the people through the ballot box’.

Milei said: ‘Venezuelans have decided to end the communist dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro. The data declare the overwhelming victory of the opposition and the world expects him to concede defeat after years of socialism, misery, decadence and death,’ Mile said.

Through his Milei X account, he said he hoped ‘that Argentina will not accept another fraud and that this time the armed forces will defend democracy and the will of the people’.

The Argentine leader said he would not recognise the election results and said: ‘Dictator Maduro, get out!

The Argentine president’s tweet caused outrage in Caracas and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil responded.

“The Argentine people will pay for this sooner or later, our overwhelming victory is a clear sign that our people will defeat the fascism you support,” Gil said from X.

Argentine Foreign Minister Diana Mondino also called on Maduro to ‘accept defeat’, saying: ‘The margin against the Chavista dictatorship is huge. They lost more than 35 per cent of the vote in all the states. There was no rigging or violence to hide the truth’.

Congratulations to Maduro from Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia and Honduras

Following Maduro’s victory, comments on the results began to pour in from South America and the Caribbean.

Bolivian President Luis Arce congratulated Maduro for ‘respecting the will of the Venezuelan people at the ballot box’.

We are closely following this democratic celebration and we welcome the fact that the will of the Venezuelan people has been respected at the ballot box,’ Arce said.

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel also congratulated Maduro on this ‘historic victory’. Today the dignity and courage of the Venezuelan people triumphed over repression and manipulation,’ the Cuban leader wrote on X.

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega and his wife Rosario Murillo sent a letter to Maduro, hailing the ‘great victory’ in the letter published by Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil.

Honduran President Xiomara Castro also congratulated Maduro on his ‘indisputable victory that reaffirms his sovereignty’.

The US, Chile and Costa Rica say Maduro’s victory has been overshadowed

Chilean President Gabriel Boric was sceptical about the results.

The Maduro regime must understand that it is difficult to believe the results it has published,’ Boric wrote, making clear that his country would not recognise ‘unverifiable’ data.

The international community and especially the Venezuelan people, including the millions of Venezuelans in exile, demand that the electoral registration and process be fully transparent and that international observers who do not agree with the government declare the accuracy of the results,’ Boric added.

The Costa Rican government said in a statement that it did not recognise Maduro’s election, calling it ‘fraudulent’ and ‘rejected’.

Guatemalan President Bernardo Arevalo also said his government was ‘very hesitant’ to accept the results announced by the CNE.

Earlier, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed ‘serious concerns’ about the election results.

Blinken said: ‘We have serious concerns that the announced results do not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people. It is critical that every vote be counted in a fair and transparent manner, that election officials immediately share information with the opposition and independent observers, and that election officials release a detailed breakdown of the votes,’ Blinken said.

AMERICA

Fed cuts interest rates, dollar surges to two-year high

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The U.S. Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by a quarter percentage point but signaled a slower pace of easing next year. This move drove the U.S. dollar to its highest level in two years and triggered a sell-off in both domestic and international stock markets.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted on Wednesday to lower the benchmark interest rate to 4.25–4.5%, marking the third consecutive cut. The lone dissenting vote came from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who favored maintaining the current rates.

Officials highlighted concerns about persistent inflation, projecting fewer rate cuts for 2025 than previously expected. Reflecting these worries, policymakers also raised their inflation forecasts for the coming year. Following the announcement, Fed Chair Jay Powell remarked that the current policy settings were “significantly less restrictive,” indicating the Fed’s inclination to adopt a more cautious approach to further easing.

“This decision was a ‘closer call’ than prior meetings,” Powell noted, emphasizing that inflation trends remain “sideways” while risks to the labor market are “diminishing.”

Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America, described the Fed’s message as “unabashedly hawkish.” He pointed to the shift in officials’ 2025 forecasts, which now anticipate just two quarter-point rate cuts instead of three, calling it a “wholesale shift.”

JPMorgan Chase, a key player in U.S. bond markets, noted that money markets are pricing in only a 0.31 percentage point rate cut in 2025. This outlook, significantly tighter than the bank’s earlier 0.75-point forecast, underscores the magnitude of the Fed’s policy shift.

The decision triggered a sharp sell-off on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 falling 3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropping 3.6%. High-profile winners of the 2024 rally were hit hard, including: Tesla, down 8.3%; Meta (Facebook’s parent company), down 3.6%; Amazon, down 4.6%.

Smaller companies, often seen as more sensitive to US economic fluctuations, also suffered. The Russell 2000 index declined 4.4%.

In Asia, stocks fell in early Thursday trading. Benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan dropped 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, U.S. government bond prices fell, driving the yield on two-year Treasuries—sensitive to Fed policy—up by 0.11 percentage points to 4.35%.

The U.S. dollar surged 1.2% against a basket of six major currencies, reaching its strongest level since November 2022. According to Wells Fargo senior economist Mike Pugliese, the currency had already been rising on expectations of inflationary pressures following Donald Trump’s election victory last month. However, Wednesday’s Fed decision “poured more petrol on the fire.”

The South Korean won dropped to a 15-year low against the dollar, while the Japanese yen weakened 0.5%.

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Amazon pledges $1 billion to Trump inauguration fund

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Amazon confirmed on Thursday that it will contribute $1 million to Donald Trump’s inauguration fund, a move mirroring similar actions by other major tech companies, including Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram. Amazon also plans to broadcast Trump’s inauguration via its Prime Video service.

This announcement comes as major tech executives seek to establish ties with the incoming U.S. president, despite Trump’s longstanding criticisms of Big Tech. Trump has frequently accused technology companies of censorship and bias against conservative media.

Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and CEO, is reportedly planning to meet Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort next week, according to The Wall Street Journal, which first reported Amazon’s donation. Similarly, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Apple CEO Tim Cook have expressed their congratulations to Trump since his election victory in November.

Trump’s relationship with Amazon has been fraught with challenges. During his first term, he accused the company of undercutting competition and criticized its tax policies. In 2018, Trump ordered a review of U.S. Postal Service package pricing, claiming the agency acted as Amazon’s “courier.”

Apple, meanwhile, faces potential risks from Trump’s proposed tariff policies, which could disrupt critical supply chains in China. However, during Trump’s first term, Cook secured exemptions for certain Apple products.

Meta’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, and other tech leaders have also engaged with Trump. According to The Information, Zuckerberg dined with Trump after the election. Pichai is also expected to meet Trump this week.

While Trump scrutinized Big Tech during his presidency, Amazon now faces mounting regulatory pressure under President Joe Biden. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC), led by Lina Khan, has been investigating Amazon for alleged monopoly practices, with several states filing lawsuits last year. The FTC is also examining major cloud service providers, including Amazon, over partnerships in artificial intelligence.

Despite earlier conflicts, Bezos recently praised Trump for his “tremendous grace and courage under real fire” in a post on X (formerly Twitter) following an assassination attempt. Bezos, who also owns The Washington Post, reportedly prevented the newspaper from endorsing Trump’s Democratic opponent Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.

Speculation about a tacit agreement between Bezos and Trump has surfaced, allegedly tied to Blue Origin, Bezos’s rocket company competing with Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

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Investors poured $140 billion into U.S. equities following Trump’s victory

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Nearly $140 billion has flowed into U.S. equity funds since last month’s election, as investors anticipate Donald Trump’s administration will implement sweeping tax cuts and regulatory reforms.

According to the Financial Times (FT), which cites data from EPFR, U.S. equity funds have seen inflows totaling $139.5 billion since Trump’s victory on November 5. This surge in investment made November the busiest month for equity inflows since records began in 2000.

The massive influx of funds has driven major U.S. stock indexes to a series of record highs, as investors appeared to shrug off concerns about potential economic risks, including inflation and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

“The growth agenda that Trump has put on the table is being fully embraced,” said Dec Mullarkey, Chief Executive of SLC Management. He added that Trump’s picks for top administration posts have been seen as “very market friendly.”

Trump has promised to fill his administration with financial experts, including Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, and Paul Atkins, a cryptocurrency advocate, as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The president-elect has outlined a pro-growth agenda, emphasizing reduced taxes, deregulation, and economic expansion. These proposals have spurred optimism among investors, fueling a rally in the market.

The S&P 500, Wall Street’s primary stock market indicator, has risen 5.3% since Election Day, bringing its total gains for the year to 28%. Smaller companies, which are often seen as more responsive to changes in the U.S. economy, have outperformed larger firms during this period. The Russell 2000 index recently hit a record high for the first time in three years.

While U.S. equity funds have enjoyed record inflows, other global markets have experienced outflows emerging market funds have seen net withdrawals of $8 billion, with China-focused funds accounting for $4 billion; funds investing in Western Europe have lost $14 billion; and Japan-focused funds have seen outflows of approximately $6 billion.

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