Diplomacy
Will the rich countries keep their word this time?
The United Nations (UN) Climate Change Conference (COP27), held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, ended yesterday morning.
At the end of the summit, COP27 President and Egyptian Foreign Minister Samih Shukri, announced at the press conference that the coordination process has begun for the transfer of the presidency of next year’s COP28 to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Shukri also announced that an agreement was reached at the conference to create a fund dedicated to the losses and damages caused by climate change in poor countries.
While poor and developing countries have been demanding this fund and a payment schedule for nearly 30 years, rich countries such as the United States and European Union (EU) members, which alone have the most responsibility for global and historical greenhouse gas emissions, have stood up to the agenda of creating funds and played for time.
The climate crisis is felt the most by the countries least to blame, so compensation is central to climate justice demands.
The fact that the countries and societies, which contributed the least to the greenhouse gases that warm the planet, suffered the most and were least equipped to cope with death and destruction was once again raised at this summit. One of the most important success criteria of the summit was the decisions expected to be taken in this regard.
The West is on at China
While the United States and EU countries are blocking the idea because they fear they may face huge payments and be held legally liable for historic greenhouse gas emissions, they also do not want the fund to go to states on the United Nations list of developing countries, such as China.
The EU then proposed to “set up a special fund for covering loss and damage in the most vulnerable countries, funded from a broad donor base.” Under this proposal, the loss and damage fund will be contributed not only by the wealthiest nations that have contributed the most to historic emissions, such as the United States and European countries, but also by emerging economies, such as China, whose emissions have risen in modern times.
However, in previous proposals, China was on the side of benefiting from the fund, not contributing to the fund. Beijing advocates the principle of “common but differentiated responsibility” in this regard. China has no liability for loss and damage, Beijing says, while arguing that they are already helping and are willing to help developing countries to increase their capacity to adapt through South-South Cooperation. Beijing denies the pressure of Western countries in this regard.
Therefore, this issue stands out as one of the important debates between China and the U.S. at climate summits.
Scope of the agreement remains unclear
Despite these debates, about 200 delegates in COP 27 reached agreement on the establishment of a loss and damage fund. However, there are serious questions about the scope of the agreement and whether it will be implemented.
Under the agreement, a transitional committee involving representatives of 24 different countries, will work over the next year to determine the form of the fund, which countries will contribute and where the money should go. The committee is expected to hold its first meeting before March 2023. The operational details of the fund will be determined at next year’s COP28 in Dubai. Apart from this general framework, many details remain unclear.
Officials have warned that the agreement on loss and damage is part of a broader agreement that is still under negotiation.
Rich countries, meanwhile, are demanding stronger commitments from developing countries to reduce emissions over the next decade to meet the climate targets of the Paris agreement, which calls on governments to limit global warming to well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C.
According to the Global Times, formal talks between Beijing and Washington, and even face-to-face discussion, will take place after COP27 is concluded.
It may not be put into practice
Although poor countries are pleased that a decision on the fund has finally been taken, many are concerned about whether the decisions taken will translate into meaningful action. As a matter of fact, these concerns have a point. In 2009, developed countries committed to giving developing countries $100 billion annually by 2020 to help them reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. However, this commitment was not fulfilled and was constantly postponed.
Experts also point out that the details of how to implement the mechanism in line with the decision taken and how to quantify the damage caused by the climate crisis are not clear, stressing that this will make the mechanism difficult to operate and leave room for rich countries to maneuver.
It is unrealistic to expect the United States, historically the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, to lead efforts to provide climate finance for the developing world, which has blocked proposals for loss and damage to date. Considering that the U.S. budget for the fund should be approved by Congress, it may not even be possible for Washington to put money into the fund, let alone lead the way.
‘The empty promises of the West’
Criticizing the Western world for their indifference to the agenda of loss and damage, Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon stressed that this is a fundamental question of climate justice and that the “rich world” has a responsibility here.
Despite the deteriorating effects of the climate crisis, the West, and especially the EU, has forsaken its responsibility with “empty promises and sweet nothings,” Sturgeon said.
From ‘phased out’ to ‘phased down’
On the other hand, after the COP26, when the ‘phase-out of coal’ was first mentioned, demands for the commitment to encompass all fossil fuels this year were not accepted. The demand for “phasing out of all fossil fuels” was not included in the final text.
Furthermore, the reference to “low-emission and renewable energy” in the text was interpreted as an element that could lead to the development of more sources of natural gas (as it produces less emissions than coal).
Following the sanctions against Russia, the European Union’s retreat from its goals due to the ongoing energy crisis has also attracted criticism within this context. Last year at COP26, discourses and commitments about “phasing out” coal were replaced by “phasing down” this year.
Parade of fossil fuel lobbyists
One of the most prominent criticisms of COP27 was the intense participation of fossil fuel lobbyists. Powerful fossil fuel companies swarmed the summit. 636 people linked to the oil and gas industry reportedly attended the summit.
The sponsorship of COP27 by Coca-Cola, which produces about 120 billion waste plastic bottles every year and uses fossil fuels in the process, was discussed widely on social media.
Diplomacy
FIFA abandons $4.2 billion commercial stake sale following widespread revolt
FIFA and Gianni Infantino have backed down from plans to sell a stake in the organization’s commercial and event operations following widespread backlash.
In a statement issued late Friday night, the embattled FIFA president said:
“After carefully listening to all views, it has become clear that this project, regardless of the level of support, causes divisions that are now contrary to the interests of the objective originally established. Our goal has always been, and will always be, to unite and improve. As a result, this proposal will not be implemented.”
Infantino’s proposal met with fierce resistance from UEFA, CONCACAF, and the Asian Football Confederation (AFC).
UEFA indicated that all 55 of its members would boycott FIFA competitions, including the World Cup, if the plans remained on the table.
In its statement, FIFA noted that “nobody is selling football,” and while asserting that it “acknowledges and respects the feedback and concerns expressed publicly,” emphasized that it would continue to implement suggestions.
It added that it “reaffirms its commitment to an open and democratic process of consultation.”
Shortly after FIFA issued its statement, the AFC released its own declaration of solidarity with UEFA and the Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF).
Infantino subsequently suffered two major internal blows.
First, his adviser Carlos Cordeiro resigned from his position, sharply criticizing the plan in a statement as “a bad deal for FIFA member associations, a bad deal for football, and a bad deal for the long-term future of the game.”
Then, FIFA Chief Operating Officer Kevin Lamour told the Associated Press that staff felt “deceived” by Infantino and that after raising the issue, he would “sleep better, even at the cost of losing his job.”
Lamour said:
“This is the project of a single person. Leaving aside that this project should not proceed… it is now time for the political leaders of world football to ask themselves the right questions and make the right decisions.”
These developments left Infantino cornered, and by Friday afternoon, numerous figures within the organization—speaking to The Athletic on condition of anonymity to protect their jobs—believed it was no longer a question of “if” the cord would be cut, but “when.”
Joshua Kushner’s venture capital firm Thrive had not withdrawn from the deal as of Friday night, but that became moot when FIFA management ultimately decided to kill the project via a public statement.
Joshua Kushner is the brother of Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of Donald Trump.
On Tuesday, world football’s governing body had announced its intention to establish FIFA Forward Enterprises (FFE), a new private entity to manage its flagship events, including the World Cup and the Club World Cup, with plans to sell a 21% minority stake in FFE to external investors.
The sale was targeted to generate $4.2 billion (£3.2 billion) in revenue. FIFA stated that this amount could be immediately distributed to its 211 member associations under a new funding stream named the “FIFA Fast-Forward Program” (FFFP).
Under the plan, FIFA’s total development funding would have exceeded $10 billion over the next four years.
Despite mounting criticism in recent days, FIFA confirmed that if member associations opposed the FFE plan but the proposal was accepted, the dissenting federations would each receive $20 million (£14.9 million) for the 2027–30 cycle, regardless of whether shares in FFE were sold to private investors (to be followed by $22 million for 2031–34 and $24 million for 2035–38).
However, had a given member association accepted the FFE proposal, it would have received $40 million for the 2027–30 period, with subsequent payouts remaining the same.
The three confederations that explicitly took a stand against FIFA’s plan represent 137 of the 211 FIFA member associations.
FIFA had stated that for the proposal to move forward, it required the approval of a majority of the 211 member associations as well as the 37-member FIFA Council, which consists of Infantino and eight FIFA vice presidents.
Strategic reactions and leadership crisis
South American football confederation CONMEBOL did not reject the plans in a statement on Friday, but noted that financial and commercial decisions “must always serve the interests of football and never take precedence over the essence of the game.”
According to a report by The Athletic, Infantino’s future leadership of FIFA was called into question during UEFA and CONCACAF meetings held on Thursday.
Infantino assumed the FIFA presidency in February 2016, succeeding Sepp Blatter, and was expected to run unopposed in the next election scheduled for March 2027.
There is also talk among European officials of putting forward Nasser Al-Khelaifi, the Qatari CEO of beIN Media, to run against Infantino.
Lise Klaveness, President of the Norwegian Football Federation, told VG: “My clear impression right now is that he has suffered a major loss of trust. We did not vote for him last time and were skeptical about this. There are many good aspects to FIFA, but if you take a lax approach to governance principles and rules, you lose trust quickly.”
Diplomacy
Defense Priorities director warns US air strategy in Middle East faces tactical limits
The collapse of a tentative memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, coupled with the diminishing strategic returns of American air power, has left the United States locked in an unsustainable, low-intensity conflict with Iran, according to Benjamin Friedman, Policy Director at the Washington-based think tank Defense Priorities.
Speaking in an interview on the YouTube channel Harici with host Sarp Sinan Hacır, Friedman attributed the failure of the short-lived US-Iran memorandum primarily to the Trump administration’s diplomatic missteps, vague draft language, and unrealistic expectations regarding a comprehensive settlement.
“Both sides really deserve some blame, but the Trump administration deserves the bulk of the blame for drafting an agreement that was so vague on key terms,” Friedman said, citing ambiguities surrounding the timeline for unfreezing Iranian assets and the scope of American commitments to restrain Israeli military operations in Lebanon.
Friedman emphasized that deep-seated mistrust in Tehran, exacerbated by repeated instances where diplomatic engagement was followed by Israeli or American military strikes, led Iranian negotiators to adopt an unyielding posture. At the same time, he noted that Iran likely miscalculated by using disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to aggressively force leverage.
“The Trump administration remained intent on this sort of grand bargain that would restrain Iran seeking weapons development… and I think they continue to misread the Iranian willingness to sign that kind of deal,” Friedman noted, adding that Tehran viewed its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz as essential despite the risk of provoking further strikes.
Expressing deep skepticism over the prospects for a lasting diplomatic breakthrough, Friedman criticized the administration’s reliance on informal envoys such as Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner over professional diplomatic channels, predicting that the baseline outcome will remain an unpredictable, episodic conflict.
“What’s more likely is a kind of on-off-again kind of war—sort of what we’re in now, where we have occasional strikes, with the United States perhaps by accident adopting the Israeli model of ‘mowing the lawn’ periodically,” Friedman said.
Addressing the efficacy of US air power, Friedman argued that military operations against Iranian targets have reached a point of diminishing returns. While early strikes successfully eliminated critical high-value assets—such as over-the-horizon radar systems that targeted anti-ship missiles—Iran’s ballistic missile and long-range drone capabilities remain largely intact and operational.
He pointed to a recent strike on a base hosting US personnel in Jordan, launched from western Iran over a distance exceeding 1,000 kilometers, as evidence of Tehran’s sustained strike precision and the tactical limits of American interdiction efforts.
“The war is a failure for air power even in a tactical sense,” Friedman stated. “Initially, we looked at it and said we had a lot of success in destroying targets, but as more information came out, it turned out they had maybe more than half of their missiles and launchers survive the initial phase of the war.”
Friedman observed that the global proliferation of low-cost, high-precision guidance technology has permanently altered the strategic landscape, neutralizing the traditional invulnerability of forward-deployed US installations. “The precise effects of air power that used to be almost a monopoly of the United States… is actually making our posture in the region less sustainable,” he said, warning that similar vulnerabilities would be vastly amplified in any potential high-intensity conflict with China.
As an alternative to open-ended military engagement, Friedman suggested that Washington consider a complete military withdrawal from the region, even if it entails accepting Iranian transit fees on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. “The cost of preventing that through perpetual outbursts of warfare is much higher than just accepting it,” he noted.
Turning to regional dynamics, Friedman addressed Israel’s current absence from active strike operations against Iran, characterizing it as a calculated move to preserve its own air defense interceptors while relying on Washington to bear the operational and political burdens of containment.
On European security and the broader alliance structure, Friedman offered a critical assessment of the NATO summit in Ankara and the administration’s “NATO 3.0” concept. He described the white paper led by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as an effort to coerce European states into escalating defense expenditures and purchasing American hardware under the threat of reduced security guarantees, rather than executing a structured, strategic US posture adjustment.
“This is not a real US withdrawal; it’s a kind of pressure to up your loyalty in a particular way,” Friedman said, noting that major European powers such as Germany, France, and the UK lack a compelling existential incentive to construct independent, large-scale conventional war-fighting capabilities.
Regarding bilateral relations with Ankara, Friedman noted that US-Turkish tensions have eased considerably following the shift in American posture in Syria and progress toward resolving long-standing friction points, including the F-35 program and S-400 procurement. He added that while Israeli leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed frustration over Washington’s constructive engagement with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the White House has maintained its strategic course despite pressure from domestic pro-Israel lobbying groups.
Addressing internal Republican Party dynamics, Friedman highlighted the evolving public stance of Vice President J.D. Vance, whose cautious criticism of Israeli influence and emphasis on divergent national interests reflects broader ideological shifts within the conservative base.
“Vance is more representative of the shift in the Republican Party,” Friedman said. “He’s criticizing them in a limited way and saying, ‘Our interests are different.’ From the perspective of those of us who would like the United States to have a more distant relationship from Israel, it’s progress.”
Looking ahead to the upcoming US midterm elections, Friedman anticipated that a loss of congressional control by the Republican Party would severely curtail the administration’s domestic executive overreach, though its structural impact on foreign policy execution and Middle Eastern operations would remain comparatively limited.
Diplomacy
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledges full support to Ukraine in meeting with Zelenskyy
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Portsmouth, England.
Zelenskyy is the first world leader Burnham has met in person since taking office, with the prime minister committing to building a “firm partnership” between the United Kingdom and Ukraine.
Demonstrating their support, the two leaders toured a military base in Portsmouth where 200 Ukrainian troops are currently undergoing naval training exercises.
Burnham described his meeting with the Ukrainian president as “warm” and said he plans to visit Ukraine soon.
“We will build this together and address the various issues President Zelenskyy is facing, many of which we discussed today,” Burnham said.
The meeting follows an announcement by London that it will share intellectual property rights to assist Kyiv’s war effort.
The new prime minister announced that the UK will share the “Stone Cloak” electronic warfare system—which is fitted to drones to prevent detection—and will assist Ukraine in mass-producing the technology.
Burnham has focused primarily on domestic matters since replacing Keir Starmer, who faced criticism from elements within his own party for spending too much time abroad and focusing heavily on foreign affairs.
However, Burnham sought to signal continuity in Britain’s policy toward Ukraine. In one of his first phone calls after becoming prime minister last week, Burnham invited Zelenskyy to visit the UK “as soon as possible.”
Starmer spent his final full day as prime minister in Kyiv, where he announced £255 million in funding for Ukraine.
Speaking to Sky on Monday, Zelenskyy said his telephone conversation with Burnham had been “very good.”
The Ukrainian leader noted that Starmer had previously assured him that “the new government would maintain the policy of supporting Ukraine during the war.”
The new prime minister told the Ukrainian leader it was “no coincidence” that he was his first international visitor since moving into Downing Street.
“The purpose of this is to send a very clear message. We stand 100% with Ukraine, I personally stand 100% with you, and I will fully deliver on every commitment this country has made to Ukraine,” Burnham said.
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