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2026 Asia outlook: A year of critical elections and high-stakes summits

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For Asia, 2025 was a year marked by significant trade disruptions due to US tariffs, conflicts in South and Southeast Asia, changes in government in South Korea and Japan, and China conducting trade negotiations with Trump.

In 2026, Asia faces a year filled with numerous elections, political turbulence, and diplomatic summits. Nikkei Asia has compiled the prominent developments for the region:

JANUARY

Verdict on Abe assassination in Japan

A Japanese district court will announce its verdict regarding the 2022 assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on January 21. This case brought the activities of the Unification Church, a religious group with strong ties to conservative politicians including Abe, into the spotlight. The 45-year-old murder suspect, Tetsuya Yamagami, and his family suffered financial hardship due to his mother’s substantial donations to this organization.

Myanmar elections

Following the first phase conducted in 102 districts on December 28, the Myanmar junta’s Union Election Commission will hold the second phase of general elections in 100 districts on January 11. The third phase is expected to take place on January 25. The elections are proceeding even though the country remains embroiled in civil war and faces political uncertainty. Regional countries are concerned about suspicious voter lists within a strict party system dominated by military allies.

Vietnam Communist Party congress

Members of the Communist Party of Vietnam will gather in Hanoi from across the country to hold the party’s largest meeting. The gathering will also see the selection of the country’s top leaders for the next five years. The party congress is being held during a critical period in which Vietnam is implementing its most comprehensive reforms in forty years. The new leaders will play a key role in determining whether the country can achieve its ambitious goals, including annual economic growth of at least 10% starting from 2026.

FEBRUARY

Bangladesh elections and referendum

On February 12, Bangladesh will hold its first elections since the removal of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, along with a referendum on a reform package known as the July Charter. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party is seen as the favorite, gaining momentum with the return of its de facto leader, Tarique Rahman, from London. The Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami is expected to take second place. The National Citizens’ Party, founded by students who led the 2024 uprising, is trailing in the polls. Nationalist-Islamist parties are gaining strength in Bangladesh.

Thailand elections

In the general elections to be held on February 8, Thais will vote for 500 members of the lower house. While 400 of the total will be elected from constituencies across the country, the remaining 100 seats will be distributed based on the total number of votes received by each party. The Election Commission will certify all members of parliament over approximately one month before parliament convenes in April to select the new prime minister.

Laos elections

Laotians will head to the polls on February 22 to elect representatives for the National Assembly and Provincial People’s Councils ahead of the ruling Lao People’s Revolutionary Party congress. University of Tokyo professor Toshiro Nishizawa predicts that the leadership transition at the congress will lead to technocrats taking a greater role in steering the economy.

MARCH

Nepal elections

On March 5, Nepal will hold its first parliamentary elections since protesters—dubbed “Gen Z” by the West—toppled the elected government of then-Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli following violent protests that spread nationwide in September, claiming 76 lives. When candidate registration closed at the end of November, over 100 political parties, including the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and Maoist Centre, had announced their candidacies.

China National People’s Congress

China will hold its annual National People’s Congress, where Communist Party leaders will review and approve the country’s economic plan for the next five years. The plan was discussed at the party’s significant fourth plenary session in October and focuses heavily on technological innovation and self-sufficiency as the world’s second-largest economy enters a prolonged superpower rivalry with the US.

APRIL

Potential Trump visit to China

US President Donald Trump stated he plans to visit China in April and potentially launch a series of summit meetings with his rival Xi Jinping that could reshape relations between the two countries. The two leaders finalized a trade truce and reduced tensions regarding tariffs and rare earth elements when they met in South Korea at the end of October, though many issues remain unresolved.

China Auto Show

China’s most important auto show will open in Beijing on April 24, showcasing the latest vehicle technologies. The rapid rise of Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers has brought the global industry to a turning point. According to the organizer’s website, the Auto China fair will span 380,000 square meters and host over 1,000 exhibitors.

MAY

Shangri-La Dialogue

The Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s largest defense conference, will be held once again against the backdrop of US-China rivalry. While high-level military officials and security analysts are expected to attend the annual conference, it remains a matter of curiosity whether the defense ministers of the world’s two largest economies will participate.

JUNE

FIFA World Cup

On June 11, the FIFA World Cup will commence with host countries Mexico and South Africa facing off in Mexico City. In the tournament, which is also co-hosted by the US and Canada, Asia-Pacific nations Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and Uzbekistan will compete to win the iconic gold trophy, though none are considered favorites. The final match will be played on July 19 in New Jersey.

South Korea local elections

South Koreans will elect mayors and other municipal administrators nationwide in local elections traditionally viewed as a report card for the ruling party’s first term. The elections will occur as President Lee Jae Myung completes his first year in office. The most watched seat will be the mayoralty of Seoul, where one-fifth of the population resides. Fundamental issues such as housing and job creation appear set to dominate the pre-election debate agenda.

“Summer Davos” in Dalian

The World Economic Forum will hold its annual summer meeting from June 23–25 in the northeastern Chinese city of Dalian. The conference will bring together academics, politicians, executives, and others to discuss current global issues.

JULY

NATO Summit in Ankara

Following the historic NATO summit held in The Hague in 2025, where allies pledged to dedicate 5% of their gross domestic product to defense by 2035, the transatlantic defense pact is holding its annual meeting in Ankara, strategically located near Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Caucasus. This marks the second time Turkey has hosted the summit, following the meeting in 2004.

AUGUST

Start of New J. League calendar

After 32 seasons, Japan remains set to change its football J. League calendar to an European-style autumn-spring season. To ensure a smooth transition, a mini-league will be held between February and May before the August–May season begins. The goal is to better align the calendar with global transfer windows to increase player values, reduce the number of matches played during the country’s grueling summer months, and synchronize better with continental competitions.

SEPTEMBER

Semicon Taiwan

One of the year’s most important technology and chip industry events begins on September 2 in Taipei. Last year’s event broke records with over 100,000 visitors and more than 1,000 exhibitors. Semicon regularly attracts the industry’s biggest names, and executives from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Nvidia, and Infineon have featured as speakers in the past.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit

The China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization will hold its annual summit in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. This meeting of the group, which includes other Central Asian countries as well as Russia, India, Pakistan, and Iran, is expected to focus on security.

OCTOBER

International Maritime Organization net zero discussions

The International Maritime Organization’s Net Zero Framework was not adopted at the October 2025 meeting due to joint opposition from the US, despite being tentatively accepted by IMO members earlier in the year. Instead, it was decided to postpone the vote on the framework, which consists of a global fuel standard and a pricing mechanism for maritime transport emissions, by one year. The sector accounts for approximately 2% of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.

NOVEMBER

ASEAN Summit in the Philippines

Ambassadors and leaders will gather in the Philippines for the ASEAN Summit, one of the most important summits for Asia. All eyes are on Manila as the group’s new chair. Manila’s tenure will determine the bloc’s resilience in the face of deepening geopolitical fractures and economic challenges.

APEC meeting, Shenzhen

China will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19. By setting the meeting’s theme as “Building an Asia-Pacific Community for Shared Prosperity,” China is displaying a stance contrary to the escalating tensions with the US, Japan, Taiwan, and other countries.

UN Climate Conference, Türkiye

The United Nations’ annual climate talks will be held in the Turkish city of Antalya, but Australia will chair the negotiations following a compromise on hosting duties between Ankara and Canberra. After the 2025 conference in Brazil failed to reach an agreement on a roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels due to opposition from oil-producing nations, the focus will be on whether progress can be made this time. The issue of trade, which India and China helped turn into a climate problem in Brazil, will again be on the agenda.

Bangladesh, Nepal, and Laos exit least developed country status

Five years after the United Nations decision, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Laos are preparing to exit Least Developed Country status on November 24. This will be a turning point in the economic development of these countries. However, exiting this category means the loss of certain advantages, including trade privileges, and there have even been debates in Bangladesh about whether to delay exiting this status. Dhaka is currently attempting to sign trade agreements to make the transition smooth.

Taiwan local elections

Voters in Taiwan will cast ballots for mayors, city council members, and other officials on November 28. As Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te’s Democratic Progressive Party battles the main opposition Kuomintang and its new leader Cheng Li-wun, the local elections will be a closely watched indicator of general political momentum.

DECEMBER

New Zealand elections

New Zealand will hold elections following the dissolution of the current parliament or the expiration of its term, with the deadline for voting set for December 19. The National Party, the dominant member of the ruling coalition, and the opposition Labour Party, which suffered a defeat in the previous elections in 2023, are currently running neck and neck in the polls.

G20 Summit

The G20 summit will be held over two days starting December 14 at Trump’s golf resort in Miami. The leaders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will also attend this event, which will form a significant diplomatic platform for Asia’s major powers—China, India, and Japan—upon the invitation of the US president.

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Chinese chipmaker profits surge 2,500% on explosive AI computing demand

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Major Chinese microchip manufacturers saw their profits surge by 2,579.5% in the first half of 2026, driven by unprecedented demand for artificial intelligence and computing capacity.

Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, cited by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), underscored the industry’s sharp upward trajectory.

Yu Weining, senior statistician at China’s National Bureau of Statistics, explained that this surge is directly connected to the accelerating integration of artificial intelligence across various sectors.

Yu noted that this process has increased the need for computing capacity. The demand for computational processes also lifted profits across the entire electronics industry by 97% year-on-year.

Profits of major Chinese industrial enterprises with an annual revenue exceeding 20 million yuan ($2.9 million) rose 18.7% in the first six months of the year, reaching 4 trillion yuan.

In the first half of 2025, before the global data center construction process had begun, industrial profits had dropped by 1.8% to 3.4 trillion yuan, while profit growth in the electronics sector remained at 3.5%.

The SCMP reported that the global AI boom has generated explosive demand for high-performance computing systems and memory chips, causing a structural pivot in China’s industrial landscape.

Data showed that integrated circuit production in the first half of the year grew by 23% year-on-year to reach approximately 280 billion units.

This figure means that the country produced an average of more than 1.5 billion chips per day.

The profit growth is also corroborated by forecasts from China’s leading chipmakers. Shenzhen Longsys Electronics, one of the largest memory module manufacturers, expects its profits to increase by more than 600-fold in the first half of the year.

Flash memory maker GigaDevice projects that its net profit will surge by approximately 1,099% year-on-year due to supply shortages and rising product prices.

Chinese companies in the AI chip segment are also demonstrating strong profit growth, albeit at a more moderate pace compared to the memory market.

Hygon Information Technology, which develops central processing units and computing units for artificial intelligence, projects that its profits will rise by up to 52.3%.

CXMT hits record high on Shanghai Stock Exchange

Shares of Chinese chipmaker CXMT gained more than 500% on their first day of trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 27, jumping from 8.66 yuan to 55 yuan.

As a result of this sharp surge in its shares, CXMT’s market valuation reached 3.65 trillion yuan ($539 billion), making the company China’s most valuable publicly traded firm.

At the peak of the rally—even though quoted prices underwent a slight correction toward the close of the trading day—CXMT surpassed Tencent, which was trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a market capitalization of $514 billion.

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Massive student movement over exam leaks forces resignation of India’s education minister

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Indian public examination reform proposals follow education minister’s resignation after nationwide youth protests

India’s federal government introduced legislation in parliament on Monday to amend the law governing public examinations, days after the “Cockroach” movement forced the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan following nationwide youth protests.

The bill incorporates enhanced sanctions, including longer prison sentences and higher fines for those found responsible for exam leaks and irregularities.

The demonstrations are widely viewed as the most significant youth-led challenge faced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi since he took office in 2014.

What triggered the protests?

Nearly 2 million students took the National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (NEET), an undergraduate medical entrance examination, in May. The federal National Testing Agency cancelled the exam on May 12 following allegations that question papers had been leaked. The examination was re-administered on June 21.

Young people took to the streets to protest against examination fraud, youth unemployment, and a perceived lack of future prospects.

According to a BBC report, the unemployment rate among university and college graduates aged 15 to 25 in the country stands at a critically high level of 40%. The addition of corruption in public examinations to existing economic strain broke the patience of the youth.

Abhijeet Dipke, founder of the Cockroach Public Party (CJP) movement, led the protests.

The movement derived its name from remarks made in May by Supreme Court Judge Surya Kant, who used the terms “cockroach” and “parasite” in a derogatory reference to unemployed youth and protesters. Young demonstrators adopted the insult as a symbol and named their movement after it.

How the movement unfolded

Young protesters organized street demonstrations demanding the resignation of Education Minister Pradhan. Dipke, who initiated the movement in New Delhi, subsequently organized protests in other parts of the country.

Sonam Wangchuk, one of the protesters, began a hunger strike at the demonstration site in support of the movement. As his physical condition deteriorated, authorities forcibly transferred him to a hospital.

The reaction to Wangchuk’s forcible removal from the protest site caused crowds at the venue to expand rapidly.

Tens of thousands of protesters faced tear gas and baton charges by police while attempting to march on parliament. Some demonstrators engaged in clashes with law enforcement officers.

CJP leaders held talks with ministers from the Modi government, who requested time to evaluate the protesters’ demands internally.

Modi called for unity among lawmakers in the ruling coalition to implement strict measures against exam paper leaks, punish those responsible, and establish a secure, leak-proof system.

Opposition representatives led by Rahul Gandhi staged a sit-in at the entrance of Modi’s official residence demanding Pradhan’s resignation. They were briefly detained by police before being released.

Opposition lawmakers supporting the student protesters disrupted proceedings in parliament. Demonstrations expanded to other regions of the country, including the financial hub of Mumbai.

In his first direct statement regarding the protests, published in a post on X, Modi announced that special courts would be established to prosecute individuals involved in exam paper leaks. Protesters rejected the proposal.

Movement leaders held a second round of talks with the government after Wangchuk ended his 26-day hunger strike.

Following those discussions, the government requested time until the afternoon of the following day to respond to the demand for Pradhan’s resignation.

Education Minister Pradhan subsequently announced his resignation, stating that he was stepping down in light of the situation at the protest site and across the country, as well as to prevent “external forces” from exploiting the environment.

On July 26, Modi announced the creation of a task force headed by technology entrepreneur Nandan Nilekani to overhaul the country’s examination system.

On Monday, July 27, the government presented a bill to parliament proposing amendments to the law governing public examinations. The legislation introduces stiffer penalties for offenders, including extended prison terms and increased monetary fines.

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China’s DeepSeek prepares for 2027 mainland IPO, aims for $71 billion valuation in new funding round

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DeepSeek, the China-based startup developing artificial intelligence models, has begun preparations for an initial public offering (IPO).

According to a Bloomberg report citing sources familiar with the matter, the company plans to file its IPO application either this year or early next year.

The sources noted that the filing timeline will depend on the readiness of the company’s financial reports, with DeepSeek projected to go public on a mainland Chinese stock exchange in 2027.

Prior to the IPO, DeepSeek also aims to conduct a new funding round. In this second investment round, the company reportedly plans to raise at least 10 billion yuan (approximately $1.48 billion), a process expected to push its market valuation to at least 480 billion yuan (approximately $71 billion).

The AI startup, which secured $7.4 billion in its first funding round, saw its market valuation exceed $50 billion, rendering DeepSeek the most valuable artificial intelligence company in China.

The company’s founder, Liang Wenfeng, personally invested $3 billion of his own capital into the DeepSeek project. According to data from the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Liang’s stake in the company fell from 90% to 78% following the latest investment round.

Despite this decline, Liang’s personal wealth more than doubled, rising from $16.7 billion to approximately $36 billion.

This surge has positioned Liang as the wealthiest founder of an AI model-developing company in the world.

According to earlier reports by Reuters, the investment round was structured under an unusual partnership model that allows founder Liang Wenfeng to maintain administrative control over the company.

Under this framework, which requires investors to provide funds to a limited liability partnership managed by the company’s general manager rather than investing directly in DeepSeek, backers are not granted voting rights. Furthermore, the provided funds are locked and cannot be withdrawn for a period of five years.

The China National Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund was the sole institution exempted from these strict rules, investing approximately $150 million directly into DeepSeek.

Based in Hangzhou, China, DeepSeek was founded by Liang Wenfeng in 2023.

The company was structured as a unit within Zhejiang High-Flyer Asset Management, a hedge fund specializing in artificial intelligence that Liang launched alongside two former university classmates.

In early 2025, DeepSeek released a new artificial intelligence model offering performance comparable to US rivals such as OpenAI, but at a significantly lower operating cost.

Following these developments, founder Liang Wenfeng stated that the company will continue to develop open-source artificial intelligence models, emphasizing that their ultimate global objective is to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI).

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