Diplomacy
German arms industry expands presence in India amidst geopolitical shifts
German arms manufacturers Rheinmetall and Diehl Defence have signed agreements with India’s Reliance Defence for the production of precision-guided munitions, explosives, and propellants in India. This move is driven not only by a desire to diversify supply chains but also by Berlin’s efforts to encourage New Delhi to reduce its arms cooperation with Moscow.
Germany has recently increased military collaboration with India, including joint naval and air force maneuvers. However, German companies still lag significantly behind their Western rivals in the US and France, who are supplying or planning to supply fighter jets for large-scale arms purchases in India.
The recent military conflict between India and Pakistan has intensified competition in the growing Indian defense market, with India shifting its focus toward advanced high-tech weaponry, including combat aircraft.
Reliance Defence, the partner of Rheinmetall, continues to lead the list of Indian companies securing international defense contracts. The company has faced accusations of receiving preferential treatment from Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Diehl and Reliance partner for 155mm precision-guided munitions
On June 10, Diehl Defence and India’s Reliance Defence announced a strategic cooperation agreement for the production of Vulcano 155mm precision-guided munitions in India. These munitions, equipped with GPS technology and laser-guided targeting, are expected to enhance the Indian army’s precision weapon capabilities.
Reports suggest that Reliance Defence anticipates sales of up to $1 billion. This agreement between Diehl and Reliance was announced just days after another strategic partnership was revealed on May 22 between Rheinmetall AG and Reliance Defence. Under this latter agreement, Reliance will take over the production of explosives and propellants for medium and large-caliber ammunition, supplying them to Rheinmetall.
This strategic partnership provides Rheinmetall with access to critical raw materials and ensures the security of its supply chains, with plans for further expansion of the collaboration. The timeframe and total value of the agreement have not yet been disclosed.
South Asia’s largest manufacturing facility to bolster Indian defense production
To support its collaborations with Diehl Defence and Rheinmetall, Reliance will establish its own manufacturing facility at Dhirubhai Ambani Defence City in India’s Maharashtra state. This facility, projected to be one of the largest in South Asia, will produce precision-guided munitions and boast an annual production capacity of 200,000 artillery shells, 10,000 tons of explosives, and 2,000 tons of propellants, which will be supplied to Rheinmetall.
These two contracts increase Reliance’s international defense partnerships to four, following existing collaborations with France’s Dassault Aviation and Thales. The agreements reflect the newly established Reliance Defence’s plans to become a leading company in India’s rapidly expanding defense sector.
Meanwhile, both Diehl and Rheinmetall aim to capitalize on the Indian government’s plan to achieve $5 billion in arms exports by 2029.
Germany’s move to reduce India’s reliance on Russian military imports
The agreements between Rheinmetall, Diehl, and Reliance Defence are part of intensified German efforts, ramped up in 2022, to reduce India’s high dependence on Russian arms imports. In February 2023, during a visit to India, then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged New Delhi for greater support in Western efforts to isolate Russia, including an increase in arms purchases from Germany.
In June 2023, then-Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated during his visit to India, “It is not in Germany’s interest for India to remain dependent on Russia’s arms deliveries in the long term.” Pistorius’s discussions resulted in the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the two countries for the joint construction of six non-nuclear submarines in India, to be carried out by Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) and India’s Mazagon companies.
The “Focus on India” document, adopted by the German government in October 2024, explicitly linked the intention to “more strongly direct India toward German arms companies” with the goal of “reducing India’s arms policy orientation toward Russia.” Simultaneously, both countries have expanded practical military cooperation, including joint air and naval maneuvers in and around the Indian Ocean.
India-Pakistan tensions and the Sino-Western military technology rivalry
The recent military conflict between India and Pakistan, also viewed as a test case for the clash between Western and Chinese military technology, has further intensified competition for India’s large defense market. The armed conflict lasted four days, with both sides employing their most advanced weapons, including modern fighter jets. Reports indicate that the Pakistan Air Force, with the assistance of Chinese-made J-10C fighter jets, managed to shoot down one or more Indian Air Force Rafale fighter jets; both aircraft are classified as 4.5 generation.
Since then, the US has increased its efforts to expand arms sales to India, including the potential sale of fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets. Shortly before the conflict, India signed a billion-dollar deal with France to acquire 26 Rafale fighter jets to replace its Russian MiG-29K fighter jets.
In response, Russia offered to sell India the Su-57, another fifth-generation fighter jet, and unlike the US, Russia proposed manufacturing the jets in India, including technology transfer. This would enable India to equip the aircraft with indigenous radar and weapon systems. Compared to France and the US, Germany has not recently secured significant arms contracts from India, the world’s largest military equipment importer, apart from the submarine agreement.
Controversial Indian giant: Reliance
Reliance Defence is a subsidiary of Reliance Infrastructure, which is part of the Reliance Group. The Reliance Group is one of India’s leading conglomerates, with total assets of approximately $47 billion and a broad base of about eight million shareholders. The group also includes other affiliated companies such as Reliance Communications, Reliance Capital, Reliance Power, Reliance Defence and Engineering Limited, and Reliance Defence Technologies Private Limited.
However, the group has a controversial history. The Reliance Group is owned by Anil Ambani, who was once listed as the world’s sixth richest person in 2008. By 2019, however, he had accumulated $2 billion in debt to various investors. In 2020, Anil Ambani was forced to declare bankruptcy in a British court after being sued by three Chinese banks for unpaid loans totaling $700 million.
Another significant setback came from Swedish telecommunications company Ericsson, which sued one of his companies over unpaid bills. Anil Ambani was saved from a jail sentence in this case only by the intervention of his elder brother, Mukesh Ambani, India’s richest man, who paid the debt.
Allegations of Modi’s support for reliance defence
The crisis-ridden Reliance Group reportedly received a lifeline from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the form of an excessively expensive arms deal with French company Dassault Aviation to purchase 36 Rafale fighter jets worth a total of $8.8 billion. As part of the contract signed in April 2015, Reliance Group was designated as an offset partner: Dassault was to reinvest a very large portion of the revenues into Reliance to purchase more defense equipment and strengthen indigenous production capabilities.
This was done despite Reliance Group having no prior experience in the defense sector. In fact, Reliance Group established its subsidiary, Reliance Defence Limited, only thirteen days before the deal with Dassault was announced. A few days after the agreement was signed, Reliance Group formed Dassault Reliance Aerospace Limited, which would become Dassault’s most important offset partner. The indebted Ambani Group, with no experience in the aviation sector, suddenly became the guarantor of a multi-billion dollar aviation business.
Diplomacy
FIFA abandons $4.2 billion commercial stake sale following widespread revolt
FIFA and Gianni Infantino have backed down from plans to sell a stake in the organization’s commercial and event operations following widespread backlash.
In a statement issued late Friday night, the embattled FIFA president said:
“After carefully listening to all views, it has become clear that this project, regardless of the level of support, causes divisions that are now contrary to the interests of the objective originally established. Our goal has always been, and will always be, to unite and improve. As a result, this proposal will not be implemented.”
Infantino’s proposal met with fierce resistance from UEFA, CONCACAF, and the Asian Football Confederation (AFC).
UEFA indicated that all 55 of its members would boycott FIFA competitions, including the World Cup, if the plans remained on the table.
In its statement, FIFA noted that “nobody is selling football,” and while asserting that it “acknowledges and respects the feedback and concerns expressed publicly,” emphasized that it would continue to implement suggestions.
It added that it “reaffirms its commitment to an open and democratic process of consultation.”
Shortly after FIFA issued its statement, the AFC released its own declaration of solidarity with UEFA and the Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF).
Infantino subsequently suffered two major internal blows.
First, his adviser Carlos Cordeiro resigned from his position, sharply criticizing the plan in a statement as “a bad deal for FIFA member associations, a bad deal for football, and a bad deal for the long-term future of the game.”
Then, FIFA Chief Operating Officer Kevin Lamour told the Associated Press that staff felt “deceived” by Infantino and that after raising the issue, he would “sleep better, even at the cost of losing his job.”
Lamour said:
“This is the project of a single person. Leaving aside that this project should not proceed… it is now time for the political leaders of world football to ask themselves the right questions and make the right decisions.”
These developments left Infantino cornered, and by Friday afternoon, numerous figures within the organization—speaking to The Athletic on condition of anonymity to protect their jobs—believed it was no longer a question of “if” the cord would be cut, but “when.”
Joshua Kushner’s venture capital firm Thrive had not withdrawn from the deal as of Friday night, but that became moot when FIFA management ultimately decided to kill the project via a public statement.
Joshua Kushner is the brother of Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of Donald Trump.
On Tuesday, world football’s governing body had announced its intention to establish FIFA Forward Enterprises (FFE), a new private entity to manage its flagship events, including the World Cup and the Club World Cup, with plans to sell a 21% minority stake in FFE to external investors.
The sale was targeted to generate $4.2 billion (£3.2 billion) in revenue. FIFA stated that this amount could be immediately distributed to its 211 member associations under a new funding stream named the “FIFA Fast-Forward Program” (FFFP).
Under the plan, FIFA’s total development funding would have exceeded $10 billion over the next four years.
Despite mounting criticism in recent days, FIFA confirmed that if member associations opposed the FFE plan but the proposal was accepted, the dissenting federations would each receive $20 million (£14.9 million) for the 2027–30 cycle, regardless of whether shares in FFE were sold to private investors (to be followed by $22 million for 2031–34 and $24 million for 2035–38).
However, had a given member association accepted the FFE proposal, it would have received $40 million for the 2027–30 period, with subsequent payouts remaining the same.
The three confederations that explicitly took a stand against FIFA’s plan represent 137 of the 211 FIFA member associations.
FIFA had stated that for the proposal to move forward, it required the approval of a majority of the 211 member associations as well as the 37-member FIFA Council, which consists of Infantino and eight FIFA vice presidents.
Strategic reactions and leadership crisis
South American football confederation CONMEBOL did not reject the plans in a statement on Friday, but noted that financial and commercial decisions “must always serve the interests of football and never take precedence over the essence of the game.”
According to a report by The Athletic, Infantino’s future leadership of FIFA was called into question during UEFA and CONCACAF meetings held on Thursday.
Infantino assumed the FIFA presidency in February 2016, succeeding Sepp Blatter, and was expected to run unopposed in the next election scheduled for March 2027.
There is also talk among European officials of putting forward Nasser Al-Khelaifi, the Qatari CEO of beIN Media, to run against Infantino.
Lise Klaveness, President of the Norwegian Football Federation, told VG: “My clear impression right now is that he has suffered a major loss of trust. We did not vote for him last time and were skeptical about this. There are many good aspects to FIFA, but if you take a lax approach to governance principles and rules, you lose trust quickly.”
Diplomacy
Defense Priorities director warns US air strategy in Middle East faces tactical limits
The collapse of a tentative memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, coupled with the diminishing strategic returns of American air power, has left the United States locked in an unsustainable, low-intensity conflict with Iran, according to Benjamin Friedman, Policy Director at the Washington-based think tank Defense Priorities.
Speaking in an interview on the YouTube channel Harici with host Sarp Sinan Hacır, Friedman attributed the failure of the short-lived US-Iran memorandum primarily to the Trump administration’s diplomatic missteps, vague draft language, and unrealistic expectations regarding a comprehensive settlement.
“Both sides really deserve some blame, but the Trump administration deserves the bulk of the blame for drafting an agreement that was so vague on key terms,” Friedman said, citing ambiguities surrounding the timeline for unfreezing Iranian assets and the scope of American commitments to restrain Israeli military operations in Lebanon.
Friedman emphasized that deep-seated mistrust in Tehran, exacerbated by repeated instances where diplomatic engagement was followed by Israeli or American military strikes, led Iranian negotiators to adopt an unyielding posture. At the same time, he noted that Iran likely miscalculated by using disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to aggressively force leverage.
“The Trump administration remained intent on this sort of grand bargain that would restrain Iran seeking weapons development… and I think they continue to misread the Iranian willingness to sign that kind of deal,” Friedman noted, adding that Tehran viewed its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz as essential despite the risk of provoking further strikes.
Expressing deep skepticism over the prospects for a lasting diplomatic breakthrough, Friedman criticized the administration’s reliance on informal envoys such as Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner over professional diplomatic channels, predicting that the baseline outcome will remain an unpredictable, episodic conflict.
“What’s more likely is a kind of on-off-again kind of war—sort of what we’re in now, where we have occasional strikes, with the United States perhaps by accident adopting the Israeli model of ‘mowing the lawn’ periodically,” Friedman said.
Addressing the efficacy of US air power, Friedman argued that military operations against Iranian targets have reached a point of diminishing returns. While early strikes successfully eliminated critical high-value assets—such as over-the-horizon radar systems that targeted anti-ship missiles—Iran’s ballistic missile and long-range drone capabilities remain largely intact and operational.
He pointed to a recent strike on a base hosting US personnel in Jordan, launched from western Iran over a distance exceeding 1,000 kilometers, as evidence of Tehran’s sustained strike precision and the tactical limits of American interdiction efforts.
“The war is a failure for air power even in a tactical sense,” Friedman stated. “Initially, we looked at it and said we had a lot of success in destroying targets, but as more information came out, it turned out they had maybe more than half of their missiles and launchers survive the initial phase of the war.”
Friedman observed that the global proliferation of low-cost, high-precision guidance technology has permanently altered the strategic landscape, neutralizing the traditional invulnerability of forward-deployed US installations. “The precise effects of air power that used to be almost a monopoly of the United States… is actually making our posture in the region less sustainable,” he said, warning that similar vulnerabilities would be vastly amplified in any potential high-intensity conflict with China.
As an alternative to open-ended military engagement, Friedman suggested that Washington consider a complete military withdrawal from the region, even if it entails accepting Iranian transit fees on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. “The cost of preventing that through perpetual outbursts of warfare is much higher than just accepting it,” he noted.
Turning to regional dynamics, Friedman addressed Israel’s current absence from active strike operations against Iran, characterizing it as a calculated move to preserve its own air defense interceptors while relying on Washington to bear the operational and political burdens of containment.
On European security and the broader alliance structure, Friedman offered a critical assessment of the NATO summit in Ankara and the administration’s “NATO 3.0” concept. He described the white paper led by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as an effort to coerce European states into escalating defense expenditures and purchasing American hardware under the threat of reduced security guarantees, rather than executing a structured, strategic US posture adjustment.
“This is not a real US withdrawal; it’s a kind of pressure to up your loyalty in a particular way,” Friedman said, noting that major European powers such as Germany, France, and the UK lack a compelling existential incentive to construct independent, large-scale conventional war-fighting capabilities.
Regarding bilateral relations with Ankara, Friedman noted that US-Turkish tensions have eased considerably following the shift in American posture in Syria and progress toward resolving long-standing friction points, including the F-35 program and S-400 procurement. He added that while Israeli leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed frustration over Washington’s constructive engagement with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the White House has maintained its strategic course despite pressure from domestic pro-Israel lobbying groups.
Addressing internal Republican Party dynamics, Friedman highlighted the evolving public stance of Vice President J.D. Vance, whose cautious criticism of Israeli influence and emphasis on divergent national interests reflects broader ideological shifts within the conservative base.
“Vance is more representative of the shift in the Republican Party,” Friedman said. “He’s criticizing them in a limited way and saying, ‘Our interests are different.’ From the perspective of those of us who would like the United States to have a more distant relationship from Israel, it’s progress.”
Looking ahead to the upcoming US midterm elections, Friedman anticipated that a loss of congressional control by the Republican Party would severely curtail the administration’s domestic executive overreach, though its structural impact on foreign policy execution and Middle Eastern operations would remain comparatively limited.
Diplomacy
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledges full support to Ukraine in meeting with Zelenskyy
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Portsmouth, England.
Zelenskyy is the first world leader Burnham has met in person since taking office, with the prime minister committing to building a “firm partnership” between the United Kingdom and Ukraine.
Demonstrating their support, the two leaders toured a military base in Portsmouth where 200 Ukrainian troops are currently undergoing naval training exercises.
Burnham described his meeting with the Ukrainian president as “warm” and said he plans to visit Ukraine soon.
“We will build this together and address the various issues President Zelenskyy is facing, many of which we discussed today,” Burnham said.
The meeting follows an announcement by London that it will share intellectual property rights to assist Kyiv’s war effort.
The new prime minister announced that the UK will share the “Stone Cloak” electronic warfare system—which is fitted to drones to prevent detection—and will assist Ukraine in mass-producing the technology.
Burnham has focused primarily on domestic matters since replacing Keir Starmer, who faced criticism from elements within his own party for spending too much time abroad and focusing heavily on foreign affairs.
However, Burnham sought to signal continuity in Britain’s policy toward Ukraine. In one of his first phone calls after becoming prime minister last week, Burnham invited Zelenskyy to visit the UK “as soon as possible.”
Starmer spent his final full day as prime minister in Kyiv, where he announced £255 million in funding for Ukraine.
Speaking to Sky on Monday, Zelenskyy said his telephone conversation with Burnham had been “very good.”
The Ukrainian leader noted that Starmer had previously assured him that “the new government would maintain the policy of supporting Ukraine during the war.”
The new prime minister told the Ukrainian leader it was “no coincidence” that he was his first international visitor since moving into Downing Street.
“The purpose of this is to send a very clear message. We stand 100% with Ukraine, I personally stand 100% with you, and I will fully deliver on every commitment this country has made to Ukraine,” Burnham said.
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