Diplomacy
Erdoğan’s White House visit could unlock $50 billion in US-Türkiye trade deals
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will visit the White House for the first time in six years, aiming to sign a series of agreements intended to mend strained relations between the two countries.
According to Turkish officials who spoke with Bloomberg, the meeting with President Donald Trump, scheduled for today (September 25), is expected to pave the way for Türkiye to purchase a range of items, from Lockheed Martin fighter jets and Boeing aircraft to liquefied natural gas.
Erdoğan sees this meeting as an opportunity to mend relations strained by Türkiye’s arms purchases from Russia, diplomatic disputes, and retaliatory tariffs.
According to Bloomberg, Türkiye remains dependent on US military and diplomatic support to maintain its regional influence, and investors believe its role in the Western alliance is critical for the development of the Middle East’s largest economy.
Expectations of a thaw in relations with Washington have boosted Turkish markets, with government bonds and stocks rising since Trump announced the White House visit last week.
“Erdoğan wants to use Trump’s presidency to reshape and improve Türkiye-US relations, focusing on enhancing the defense relationship,” said Emre Peker, director of Eurasia Group Europe, based in London. “The energy and defense deals Erdoğan is pursuing are the main pillars of a mutually beneficial, transactional relationship that will also appeal to Trump’s deal-making instincts.”
Nihat Ali Özcan, a strategist at the Ankara-based think tank TEPAV, claimed, “Erdoğan, who prioritizes remaining president, aims not to jeopardize his career path with any problems stemming from the US or Trump until the 2028 elections or an earlier vote.”
The largest share of the potential deals on Thursday could be in the aviation sector. Turkish officials said Boeing and Lockheed Martin could receive orders for 250 commercial jetliners and additional F-16 fighter jets.
Last week, Trump indicated a potential breakthrough in the long-standing deadlock over the F-35 stealth jets. Türkiye was one of the original partners in the development of Lockheed’s most advanced fighter jet but was removed from the program after purchasing Russia’s S-400 air defense system.
This purchase led to congressional sanctions known as CAATSA, which target Türkiye’s defense industry and remain in effect.
According to Turkish officials, Ankara has refused to dispose of the S-400s as requested by Washington but hopes that if a compromise on their deployment can be reached, the door could reopen for the purchase of 40 F-35s.
On Wednesday, Türkiye announced it had signed long-term agreements with Mercuria Energy and Woodside Energy to purchase approximately 76 billion cubic meters of natural gas, primarily in the form of LNG from facilities in the US.
The gas shipments and defense deals will bolster bilateral trade, which both countries have stated they want to triple to an annual total of $100 billion.
“Türkiye is signaling a strategic shift toward rebuilding trust, especially after tensions over its defense ties with Russia and differing foreign policy positions,” said Umud Shokri, a senior foreign policy advisor at the Middle East Institute, a think tank in Washington.
Shokri added, however, that the “delicate balance” between Russia and the West creates risk factors that introduce uncertainty.
How relations develop from here will have repercussions beyond Türkiye’s borders, particularly in Syria.
Diplomacy
Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour
Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.
As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.
The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.
Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.
In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.
Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”
US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”
On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.
According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.
Diplomacy
Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.
According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.
Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.
The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.
Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.
He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.
The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.
On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.
In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.
In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.
The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.
Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.
In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.
“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”
Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.
He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.
Washington pledges to maintain defence support
Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.
“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.
Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.
“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.
Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks
In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.
He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.
Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”
Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.
The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.
In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.
The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.
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