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Cautious optimism surrounds Gaza ceasefire talks in Sharm el-Sheikh

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Negotiators from Israel and Hamas are meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, for the second day of indirect talks aimed at ending the war in Gaza. US President Donald Trump stated that Hamas has “agreed to some very important points,” while the White House is avoiding setting a timeline for the process but wants an agreement “quickly.”

Two sources close to Hamas’s negotiating team told AFP that the talks in Egypt have been “positive” so far and that negotiations would resume at noon.

One of the sources said, “Last night’s talks were positive; the first round lasted four hours.”

According to the Egyptian state channel Al-Qahera, the first round of talks was also completed “positively,” with reports that the parties are working to create a framework for a mechanism to exchange hostages and prisoners.

An Arab diplomat told The Times of Israel that reaching an agreement could take several days, or even longer.

A report from Israel’s i24NEWS, citing an unnamed Israeli official, stated that they are facing a “critical 48 hours in the negotiations.”

A report on Israeli state television KAN suggested that “a positive atmosphere prevails in both Israel and the US, and an agreement could be reached by next Sunday.”

Trump ‘quite confident’

US President Donald Trump said, “Hamas has agreed on important issues, there is a good chance for a deal.” When asked by journalists if there were red lines for Hamas in the negotiations, Trump replied, “Yes. If some things are not met, we will not do it. But I think we are doing quite well. Hamas has agreed to some very important things.”

Trump stated he was “quite confident” that a ceasefire and hostage exchange agreement would happen soon, adding that Hamas has been behaving “well” recently. “I think we will reach an agreement… They have been trying to make a deal regarding Gaza for literally centuries,” he said.

Referring to the weekly protests in Israel attended by tens of thousands demanding the release of hostages and an end to the war, Trump said, “The people of Israel want this to happen.”

Reiterating that his agreement goes beyond ending the war in Gaza and aims for broader regional peace, Trump emphasized the support for his proposal from the Arab and Muslim world. “I spoke with Turkish President Erdoğan. Wonderful. He is trying very hard [for the Gaza deal]… and Hamas has great respect for him. They also have great respect for Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia,” said Trump, adding that he had also spoken with the King of Jordan.

White House wants the agreement to be completed ‘quickly’

Trump is represented in the talks, held in the Sinai resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, by his special representative Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner. A US official told Channel 12 that neither of them would leave Egypt until an agreement is reached between Israel and Hamas.

The unnamed senior US official stated that Washington wants to reach an agreement this week on the proposal to end the Gaza war. However, the White House has refrained from publicly announcing a timeline, despite persistent questions from journalists about how long the talks in Egypt will last.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said, “It is important that we complete this quickly so that we can gain momentum, get the hostages out, and then move on to the next phase of this: ensuring a lasting and sustainable peace in Gaza and ensuring that Gaza is no longer a place that threatens the security of Israel or the US.”

“The administration is working very hard to move things forward as quickly as possible. The President wants to see a ceasefire. He wants the hostages released,” said Leavitt, adding, “They are going over the lists of both the Israeli hostages and the political prisoners to be released.”

A reporter, suggesting that Palestinian society has been “radicalized,” asked White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt who they would want as Palestinian technocrats in the transitional government that will govern post-war Gaza. Leavitt replied, “We are not there yet.”

US President Donald Trump had announced a 20-point plan on September 29 that included the release of Israeli prisoners and a ceasefire in Gaza. On October 3, Hamas stated that it accepted the prisoner exchange in Trump’s Gaza plan but that some other points needed to be negotiated.

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US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt

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The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.

The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.

Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.

Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.

A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.

Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.

A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”

This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.

An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”

The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”

“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.

The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.

The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.

A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.

In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”

The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.

The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.

Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.

Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.

In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.

Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.

This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.

Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.

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Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks

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Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.

This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.

United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.

Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.

The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.

Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.

Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.

“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.

Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.

The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.

Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.

Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.

Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.

Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.

The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.

Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.

Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”

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Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.

Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.

Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.

The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.

The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”

Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.

Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.

Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”

Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.

According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:

“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”

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