Europe
German capital flows into the defense industry as traditional sectors face crisis
German capital is pouring into the defense industry from all sectors. While Germany’s traditional industrial sectors face a major crisis, German capital is focusing intently on large, anticipated orders from the German Armed Forces.
This trend is evident in the German Security and Defense Industry Federation (BDSV). According to the federation’s own data, its membership has nearly doubled from 243 to 440 since November 2024, with two-thirds of its members coming from the “Mittelstand”—historic, family-owned companies that are generally broader than typical SMEs.
Cathrin Wilhelm, who is responsible for the Mittelstand at BDSV, told the Handelsblatt daily, “We are virtually being inundated with interested parties. Many companies are suppliers to the automotive and machinery industries and are struggling with capacity utilization. They now see an opportunity for growth in the defense sector.”
Fabian Kienbaum, who provides personnel consulting services to family businesses, also believes such an opportunity exists. “Those with the technology, production competence, and quality standards are looking more closely at whether they can position themselves as suppliers for the defense industry or for defense orders,” he states.
This particularly concerns mechanical components, assembly, or coatings. “The need for qualified personnel to carry out these transformations is immense,” says Kienbaum.
Handelsblatt examines how highly experts rate this potential by focusing on three Mittelstand companies.
Germany’s defense budget alone is set to increase from its current €80 billion to €170 billion. The consulting agency McKinsey also estimates that by then, the annual volume of the European defense industry market will rise to €335 billion, which is almost three times its current size.
A large portion of this belongs to major corporations like the Dax group Rheinmetall, tank manufacturer KNDS, or the military division of Airbus. These companies, in turn, subcontract 80% of their orders.
According to its own data, industry leader Rheinmetall has approximately 23,000 suppliers, most of which are medium-sized enterprises. Meanwhile, many automotive suppliers are in desperate need of orders.
However, the issue is not just about better utilization of production capacities. The war in Ukraine has led to a change in thinking within many family businesses. Furthermore, the prospect of Donald Trump taking office and the promise of limited US aid are pushing many Mittelstand companies to actively enter this sector.
“Deciding to work for defense industry companies is one thing, but deciding to have weapons produced with your own technology is another,” says a managing partner of a machine manufacturer from Sauerland who wished to remain anonymous.
In February, another machine manufacturer asked if they wanted to participate jointly in a tender for a defense project. The tender was seeking machines for the production of artillery shells.
However, the family company in question had decided from its founding day not to produce for the defense industry. Was this decision still valid in 2025?
The entrepreneur spoke with his partners. The moment Trump questioned the NATO alliance at the beginning of the year was decisive: “We understood that our values of peace and freedom were never questioned, but today, different decisions must be made than in the past.” This “realization,” according to Handelsblatt, united the family.
“Many families are divided over whether to set aside their statutes and beliefs that emerged during the Cold War,” says Tom Rüsen, general manager of the Witten Institute for Family Business Foundation.
According to him, “Generation Z” does not see a problem with armaments, but the post-World War II “baby boomer” generation and Generation X see more issues.
Consequently, the family decided to involve the employees in the process. “We wanted to give everyone an opportunity to understand our decision-making process and our struggle,” says the entrepreneur.
Ultimately, the conclusion was reached that “sustainability is not possible without democracy and freedom,” and “the employees understood this as well.”
“Not everyone would have made the same decision,” says the entrepreneur, “but they understand that we have taken a sincere stance and did not just accept this job because the opportunity was right. That was important to us.”
At the same time, the partners determined that this decision should be reviewed every year and limited the maximum annual order volume from the defense industry: “Those who can decide anew annually are those who do not become dependent.” Meanwhile, the company received the order, and there are other requests.
Another newcomer to the sector is Grüninger Electronics, located in Weinstadt near Stuttgart. Managing partner Thomas Hagen openly admits that he knew very little about the defense and security industry until now, which is why he joined the BDSV.
Grüninger specializes in 3D-printed circuit boards. The company manufactures circuit boards and, through “reverse engineering,” reprints, repairs, and re-equips them.
Circuit boards are found in every modern car and are now also used in the defense industry.
However, a large portion of circuit boards are manufactured in Taiwan and China, with Europe holding only 2% of the world market.
Würth recently ceased its circuit board production. “Those who value data sovereignty and resilience should keep the knowledge in the country,” says Hagen. 3D-printed circuit boards are independent of supply chains, and the data remains in-house.
Hagen is continuing his discussions with potential customers during the development phase. Just obtaining the necessary permits for this took nine weeks.
But if Grüninger wants to apply as a supplier, the certification process will be much more complex and lengthy. Hagen, however, sees great potential. Even “old circuit boards” can be reprinted, equipped, and tested, thereby producing spare parts for existing boards. This could significantly increase the operational availability of submarines or tanks, for example.
Many are only now realizing the high demands placed on the sector. The German Armed Forces’ Military Security Service (MAD) vets everyone who works directly with the army. Such a security check currently takes 18 months.
Until now, Grüninger supplied companies in Germany active in mechanical and plant engineering, aerospace technology, and electrical engineering. As a supplier to the defense industry, Hagen plans to significantly grow his company.
The third example company is Armoured Car Systems (ACS), part of the Gruma Group in Friedberg near Augsburg, which produces small series of armored off-road vehicles.
ACS specializes in armoring off-road vehicles like the Mercedes G-Class with its own superstructures. Until now, ACS was a smaller part of the family business; five years ago, it had only 35 employees, whereas today it has 135. This German Mittelstand company knows the peculiarities of the defense industry well.
In 2022, its insurance company announced it would terminate the contract due to the business’s incompatibility with the taxonomy rules at the time. The termination of insurance coverage would have affected the entire corporate group, which has 1,400 employees.
General manager Sebastian Schaubeck explained that the reason was the ACS subsidiary, which operates in the security and defense technology field.
At that time, the EU considered the financing of defense industry companies to be incompatible with the Union’s sustainability goals. “This sector was not valued; on the contrary, no one saw its benefits,” Schaubeck complains.
The war in Ukraine also marked a turning point for ACS. At the end of 2022, the insurance company gave the entire group the green light but did not want to make a public statement.
Looking back, Schaubeck assesses the shock of the Ukraine war: “The reputation [in the sector] has completely changed.” This also applies to political support. For example, SPD’s German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius became the first defense minister in a long time to join the BDSV.
The fact that ACS is already benefiting from a boom is largely related to the company’s decision to start investing in its own vehicle class in 2019, a period when the company was making a loss.
ACS developed and patented a modular vehicle based on the Mercedes G-Class. “This was something the entrepreneurial family achieved entirely with its own resources,” says the ACS general manager. It is also noted that the shareholders were convinced to invest in security for the long term.
According to Wilhelm from the BDSV, securing capital remains a major obstacle for many Mittelstand companies in the defense sector.
Although many banks and funds have changed their statutes that previously rejected armaments as an unethical investment, financing remains a weak point.
Europe
Germany lays groundwork for civilian alternative as conscription looms
In Germany, the Ministry for Family Affairs has already begun working on the revitalization of alternative civilian service, which serves as a constitutionally mandated prerequisite for the reintroduction of compulsory military service.
The federal government is taking measures to implement a new civilian service system in the event that mandatory military service is restored.
The Federal Ministry for Family Affairs confirmed that over recent months it surveyed 23 major associations and organizations regarding the types of opportunities they could offer to conscientious objectors should compulsory military service be reinstated.
A ministry spokesperson stated: “22 out of the 23 associations indicated that, in the event that the military obligation is reactivated, their infrastructure and placements are in principle ready, and they could offer a wide variety of opportunities to those performing civilian service in lieu of military service.”
Thorsten Frei, parliamentary secretary of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) faction in the Bundestag, considers taking precautions against the potential entry into force of a new civilian service to be “very sensible and correct.”
Speaking to the channels RTL and ntv, the CDU politician noted that there is currently no new development in the discussions regarding a return to military service.
However, Frei emphasized: “We can never rule out that decisions may need to be taken quickly to prepare for all contingencies. In that case, the resulting consequences must also be clear.”
Criticism regarding the potential reintroduction of compulsory civilian service has emerged from the opposition.
Ines Schwerdtner, co-leader of The Left party, stressed that “the state should not dictate to young people how they ought to spend a year of their lives.” This principle, she asserted, applies as much to compulsory civilian service as it does to compulsory military service.
According to Schwerdtner, young people should not be used “to fill the gaps in a welfare state that the federal government has spent years ruining through austerity policies.”
In statements to the Funke Media Group, the party chair emphasized that there is no need for “state-mandated cheap labor” in care services, emergency rescue services, or social institutions.
Martin Hagen, Secretary General of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), views the preparations by the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs as an admission of failure by the CDU-SPD coalition government.
Pointing out that plans for a new civilian service are already being drawn up, Hagen stated that this demonstrates the coalition government has “zero confidence in its efforts to reach the target personnel numbers for the Bundeswehr through voluntary enlistment.”
Hagen criticized the CDU/CSU and SPD for failing to “make the Bundeswehr an attractive employer and to inspire young people toward military service.”
The Social Association of Germany (SoVD) also expressed concern, presenting arguments similar to those of Left Party leader Schwerdtner.
Michaela Engelmeier, Chairwoman of the SoVD Executive Board, stated that compulsory civilian service would represent a major intervention by the state in the freedom and life plans of young people.
She likewise warned that a new civilian service could be abused to obtain cheap labor and to substitute for regular employment. Instead of focusing on a new civilian service, she argued that the federal government ought to strengthen voluntary work.
According to junge Welt (jW), the German media is applauding this step, with some outlets now demanding further forms of compulsory service not merely for youth, but for everyone.
As the newspaper Neue Ruhr Zeitung (NRZ) acknowledged, the government’s plans imply that “the implementation of general conscription is drawing near.”
It is argued that these compulsory services are necessary “due to the threat originating from Russia and NATO’s shifting objectives.”
The newspaper Die Rheinpfalz expressed regret that the “voluntary community service year” is “unfortunately being overlooked” in the current debate, while echoing the German government’s rationale:
“Ever since the hope for everlasting peace in Europe was shattered by Russia’s brutal attack on Ukraine, Germany once again requires more soldiers.”
Arguing that this idea is “more logical today than ever,” the newspaper continued:
“Everyone devotes a few months to society between school, vocational training, and university. Naturally, it remains up to each individual to decide whether that time is spent in the military, or in a hospital, a care home, or a fire station.”
Even within Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland (RND), the prevailing view is that rather than merely debating a new civilian service program for conscientious objectors, a “fundamental and comprehensive debate regarding a period of social service or a general mandatory service year” should be initiated.
The deputy head of RND’s Berlin bureau states that compulsory service requires “public acceptance.” The “enormous potential of a universal mandatory service year” and the “certainty of personally contributing to the country’s security and stability” are highlighted as significant justifications driving Germany toward a new mandatory conscription turning point.
RND writes that women as well as men, and older adults alongside young people, would be included in this framework, adding that people could finally “do something for the state—and consequently for themselves.”
Compulsory military service was suspended in July 2011, which in practice meant the abolition of both military and civilian service. Civilian service was replaced by the Federal Voluntary Service.
At the beginning of this year, a new military service framework came into effect. The foundation of this arrangement relies on a mandatory health examination for young men born in 2008 and later. Through this mechanism, the aim is to recruit volunteers to strengthen the armed forces.
Should target capacity ranges fail to be met, the Bundestag may enact a decision on “need-based mandatory conscription.”
Europe
European carmakers turn to Chinese rivals to salvage struggling plants
European carmakers, struggling with severe headwinds and halted assembly lines across numerous plants, are turning to Chinese rivals to salvage their operations.
A report by the Financial Times outlines the perilous situation facing factories across the continent, particularly in Italy.
The sprawling Fiat automobile plant in Cassino, located 130 km southeast of Rome and once an engine of the local economy, has taken on a desolate, near-abandoned atmosphere.
The facility’s 2,200 employees are summoned to work only a few days a month. In the first half of 2026, the plant produced just 6,700 cars, representing a minuscule fraction of its annual capacity of 300,000 units.
Denise Tisci, a 40-year-old mother of three who has worked at the plant since 2007, has not worked a shift since May and relies on a government temporary lay-off scheme alongside her colleagues.
“We have cut back on many things, even basic, simple things like taking the children out for a pizza,” Tisci said. “Having to look our children in the face is deeply humiliating.”
Fiat workers expect Stellantis, the automaker’s parent company, to seek a Chinese solution for the Cassino plant, mirroring its recent agreements in Spain and France with Leapmotor and Dongfeng.
This situation is not unique to Fiat, as a growing number of European carmakers turn to Chinese competitors to resolve issues caused in part by their rapid expansion into the region.
Emanuele Cappellano, head of European operations at Stellantis, told the Financial Times regarding the company’s recent partnerships in China:
“This is not just a way to survive and catch up with our new rivals, but also an opportunity to boost sales volume and achieve growth in Europe.”
A total closure of the group’s Italian factories has been ruled out, and Cappellano noted that a solution for Cassino will be found by the end of the year.
As the company seeks a partner to revitalize its struggling Maserati brand, a likely scenario involves collaborating with a Chinese group with which it already maintains ties.
This could involve either its electric vehicle (EV) joint-venture partner Leapmotor or state-owned Dongfeng.
“Any partner that moves its production to these factories is not a problem for us. The crisis in the automotive sector is impacting the entire economy,” said Enzo Salera, Mayor of Cassino, adding that local retailers and restaurants have also been severely affected.
European automotive production accounts for approximately 7% of the continent’s GDP and provides employment to roughly 14 million people.
With regional car sales remaining roughly 3 million units below pre-pandemic levels and Chinese rivals capturing market share, other companies have begun adopting new strategies to survive.
Nissan is collaborating with Chery in the UK, Volkswagen continues discussions with Xpeng, and Ford has signed an agreement with Geely in Spain.
Jim Baumbick, head of Ford in Europe, remarked last week while announcing the collaboration with Geely: “The environment in Europe has changed forever. The objective is to achieve the lowest possible cost.”
According to AlixPartners, plant utilization rates in the European automotive sector are running below 60%, leaving a total production capacity of approximately 2.5 million vehicles potentially idle.
Stellantis is doubling down on a strategy that some industry executives view as a short-term fix, but one that could prove self-destructive if local supply chains and technological know-how are not reinforced.
Stellantis has invited Leapmotor and Dongfeng to manufacture models at its facilities in Spain and France.
The Dongfeng agreement was broadly welcomed by French workers because it could help save a 1960s-era plant in Rennes, Brittany.
Like many other Stellantis plants in the country, the Rennes facility had been reduced to a single assembly line, with surrounding land sold off.
Laurent Oechsel, a representative of the French CFE-CGC union at Stellantis, asked: “Right now, Chinese-made cars are sitting in our ports. Do we want to keep fighting against this as the textile sector once did, or do we want to continue producing cars in France alongside the Chinese?”
The challenge for European policymakers, carmakers, and trade unions is to ensure that manufacturing partnerships preserve employment while bolstering the region’s supply chains with Chinese technology.
Currently, many Chinese vehicles marketed as being produced in Europe are equipped primarily with parts manufactured in China and shipped to the EU for final assembly.
Adolfo Urso, Italy’s Minister of Industry, told the Financial Times:
“If the objective is to establish a technological industrial partnership that can fill the factory, keep it viable, and help protect the supply chain, that is welcome. Provided, of course, that people come to Italy to produce, not merely to assemble.”
While partnerships are common among carmakers, European manufacturers hope to learn how to produce cars faster and more cheaply through Chinese alliances.
In return, Chinese brands want to scale up European manufacturing ahead of strict new local content rules that Brussels plans to enforce in mid-2027, aimed at driving investment into the continent, creating new jobs, and enabling technology and skills transfers.
Under the Industrial Accelerator Act, the EU proposes a 70% local content threshold for car parts to qualify for subsidies or public procurement. Local battery production is also expected to commence in the future.
Major uncertainties remain regarding the extent to which Chinese companies will transfer technological know-how and intellectual property rights, as well as how quickly they will begin utilizing European-sourced components.
In Spain, where the government successfully persuaded Chinese companies such as battery maker CATL, Chery, and SAIC (owner of MG) to set up factories, no guarantees have yet been secured regarding technology transfers or the proportion of local labor and components to be used.
Deep concern prevails across the automotive supply chain, where component manufacturers employ twice as many workers as carmakers.
“Those of us working in the supply chain could be at risk,” said Marco Leone, 62, an employee at a firm manufacturing sheet metal fenders for the Cassino plant.
Similar concerns surround Nissan’s agreement to share production at its Sunderland plant with Chery starting next year.
Sources familiar with the discussions stated that three models would be produced for the Chinese group, which also owns the Jaecoo and Omoda brands.
Ian Henry, an automotive manufacturing expert who leads the consultancy AutoAnalysis, warned: “Suppose that in the first year, the cars are essentially produced from kits originating in China. That is great for workers on the assembly line, but not necessarily as beneficial for employees in Nissan’s press shop, body shop, and paint shop, or for local tier-one suppliers.”
Henry added that Chery would need to rapidly increase its localization rate to export to the EU, but the timeline remains uncertain, and discussions continue over whether UK-produced cars will be included within the “Made in Europe” framework.
A source close to the talks noted that the higher cost of utilizing UK suppliers also presents an obstacle.
Chinese automotive executives stress their commitment to using local supply chains, while acknowledging that the transition will not occur overnight.
Charlie Zhang, executive vice president of Chery International, told the Financial Times:
“Localization is a gradual process; it is measured not by the calendar, but by the maturity of supply chains, cost structures, and our readiness to become part of the local industrial ecosystem.”
Analysts argue that sluggish demand in China and the pressure to boost exports represent the primary obstacles to localization in Europe.
With the government pressing manufacturers to utilize idle capacity, China’s global exports are projected to rise by 41% this year, exceeding 10 million units.
Thomas Besson, head of automotive research at Kepler Cheuvreux, noted: “Because domestic demand in China has fallen well short of expectations, the pressure on Chinese automakers to export is far greater. Despite frequently expressing their intentions, Chinese carmakers have not yet begun producing significant volumes of vehicles in Europe.”
The “Made in Europe” proposals will further drive up car manufacturing costs in Europe, potentially forcing some Chinese producers with smaller sales volumes to forgo European subsidies and continue exporting in the near term.
A senior executive at a Chinese carmaker stated: “If it becomes financially too expensive, we will pay the tariff and continue shipping cars [from China].”
For certain Chinese carmakers like BYD, joint ventures make little strategic sense.
Stella Li, top executive for international operations at BYD, described a joint venture as “impossible,” stating: “I think it is better to manage on our own. Asking for permission is very difficult. We make our decisions in five minutes.”
BYD plans to commence mass production of its vehicles in Hungary by the end of this year. However, the “Made in Europe” proposal has prompted the company to seek a second site in Spain or France before completing its factory in Türkiye as previously announced.
Not all European carmakers are pursuing Chinese partnerships. Some analysts argue that companies operating independently can react faster to market shifts, with no guarantee that Chinese partners will succeed in Europe.
“I believe companies that remain independent retain far greater control,” said JPMorgan analyst Jose Asumendi.
Europe
Palantir faces scrutiny over European tax avoidance strategies
Palantir, which holds contracts with multiple European governments, has paid relatively little tax in Europe, according to a new report.
Researchers from the Centre for International Corporate Tax Accountability and Research (CICTAR), a non-profit organisation, and the European Public Service Union (EPSU), a trade union federation, found that Palantir reduced its tax liability in the region by shifting a portion of its revenues abroad.
Co-founded by Peter Thiel, the software company has drawn controversy for years over the surveillance capabilities of its technology, which critics contend raise privacy concerns.
The clients Palantir chooses to work with — including the military, law enforcement, and immigration services — have also fuelled this debate.
Palantir has secured significant success selling data analytics services to governments across Europe, most notably in the UK, France, Germany, Sweden, Spain, and Italy.
Securing major government contracts has boosted the company’s regional revenues. However, according to the CICTAR and EPSU report, Palantir employs tax strategies that facilitate what is known as base erosion, allowing the firm to lower the amount of tax it pays in Europe.
According to the report, the company achieves this by paying service fees to its US subsidiaries and introducing deductible expenses that diminish its taxable profits in Europe.
Consequently, while the effective tax rates applied to Palantir’s European operations appear high, the company manages to report low pre-tax profits.
Meanwhile, tax rates in the US remain significantly lower than those in Europe.
This practice extends to Palantir’s operations in the UK, which sits outside the EU.
None of the practices detailed in the report are illegal, and many large multinational corporations structure their operations in this manner to reduce their tax liabilities.
However, CICTAR and EPSU argue that base erosion is particularly problematic in Palantir’s case, emphasizing that while the company receives payments from governments for delivering services, it minimizes its contribution to the taxes that fund those very services.
Jan Willem Goudriaan, General Secretary of EPSU, said in a statement:
“Governments contract with Palantir to strengthen national security; but Palantir, by avoiding taxes, undermines public services, including national economic security.”
Although Palantir is deeply integrated into regional public service delivery, European alternatives such as France’s Chapsvision are gaining increasing traction.
Germany’s domestic intelligence agency announced that it will switch from Palantir to Chapsvision. In June, the French intelligence agency also announced that it would begin working with the domestic company.
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