Middle East
Pentagon’s top general warns Trump of munitions shortages ahead of potential Iran strike
As the Trump administration weighs military options against Tehran, the nation’s highest-ranking military officer has privately warned President Donald Trump and senior officials that critical munitions shortages and a lack of allied support could jeopardize US personnel and the success of any operation.
General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, delivered the sobering assessment during a high-level meeting at the White House last week, according to sources familiar with the discussions. Caine emphasized that the sustained defense of Israel and ongoing military aid to Ukraine have significantly depleted US missile inventories, creating a strategic vacuum that would complicate a large-scale offensive against Iran.
During series of Pentagon briefings this month, Caine reportedly voiced deep anxieties regarding the complexity and sheer scale of a potential campaign. He pointed to the high probability of US casualties and noted that the absence of a broad international coalition would leave Washington to shoulder the operational burden alone.
In a statement, the Chairman’s office noted that, in his capacity as the president’s principal military advisor, Caine “provides a range of military options along with their secondary assessments, implications, and risks to civilian leaders.” The office added that these evaluations are provided in a classified setting. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly stated that Trump “listens to a wide spectrum of views on every issue” and makes decisions based on what is best for US national security, describing Caine as a “talented and highly valued member” of the team.
Following reports of the briefing, Trump took to social media to dismiss assertions that Caine is “opposed to war with Iran.” The president claimed that while the general would prefer to avoid conflict, he believes any such engagement would be a “fight that could be easily won.” However, sources speaking on the condition of anonymity provided a starkly different account of Caine’s warnings, suggesting a level of institutional caution that contrasts with the president’s public optimism.
The Tuesday meeting at the White House included Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and White House advisor Stephen Miller. Caine’s counsel carries significant weight within the administration, bolstered by his successful oversight of two major recent operations: the summer strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and the January extraction of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
The scope of a military campaign would depend entirely on Trump’s strategic endgame. Neutralizing Iran’s missile program alone would require strikes on hundreds of targets across a geography three times larger than Iraq. According to a former defense official, this list includes mobile launchers, supply depots, air defense batteries, and the logistics networks used to transport hardware.
If the objective shifts toward regime change—the ousting of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—the target list would expand into the thousands, encompassing command-and-control centers, security apparatus headquarters, and key government buildings. Such a campaign could last months, require vast quantities of precision-guided munitions, and expose US forces to intensive retaliatory strikes.
While the US has deployed a massive strike force to the region, Trump has acknowledged considering a limited “surgical” strike designed to force Tehran into a nuclear deal on favorable terms. Although Iran has signaled a marginal openness to talks, fundamental disagreements persist over its uranium enrichment capacity. Negotiators from both sides are scheduled to reconvene in Geneva this week.
Some officials remain staunchly opposed to a limited strike, fearing it could trigger an uncontrollable cycle of violence against US diplomatic and military personnel. Proponents of the “limited” approach point to Iran’s historically measured responses to previous US and Israeli actions. Conversely, critics argue that Trump’s open discussion of regime change, coupled with the rising influence of hardliners within the Iranian military, makes a disproportionate and violent response far more likely. Regional allies who met with Trump last week also expressed concern that any attack would permanently scuttle the diplomatic track.
A military move against Iran would further strain ties with regional partners. A senior Gulf official indicated that several Arab nations have informed Washington they will not permit their bases to be used for strikes against Iran. Threats from Tehran to retaliate against any country facilitating a US operation have made neighbors wary of even granting airspace transit rights.
“If Arab countries do not open their airspace, how do we execute this?” asked one former Pentagon official. “How do you hit hundreds, perhaps thousands, of targets across the country without that access?”
The US faces a critical shortage of the very interceptors needed to protect its own troops. The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Patriot systems have been utilized at a high tempo in recent regional operations. Patriot missiles, in particular, are in high demand in Ukraine. Ryan Brobst, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted that the US produces only a few hundred of these interceptors annually—well below the projected needs of a sustained conflict.
The Navy faces a similar “magazine depth” issue with its Standard Missile family. Interceptors like the SM-2, SM-3, and SM-6 have been rapidly expended in the Red Sea against Houthi rebels and in the defense of Israel. Mackenzie Eaglen of the American Enterprise Institute warned that due to complex manufacturing requirements, replacing these sophisticated missiles can take two years or longer.
Katherine Thompson, a recently departed Pentagon official, warned that the US is not currently structured to finance or sustain simultaneous high-intensity conflicts. A protracted war with Iran would require severe trade-offs in other theaters of higher priority.
While the US has executed its largest military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the situation remains a volatile stalemate. On Monday, the US ordered the departure of non-essential personnel and families from its embassy in Lebanon. As tensions peak, Trump’s Special Representative Steve Witkoff questioned why Iran has not yet succumbed to the pressure of military threats. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi replied via social media: “You wonder why we don’t surrender? Because we are Iranians.”
Middle East
Iran to receive hundreds of Chinese shoulder-fired missiles within weeks, sources say
Iran is expected to receive its first shipment of 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air defense missile systems within weeks as it seeks to rebuild its air defenses amid an ongoing war with the US.
Three sources with knowledge of the agreement disclosed the information to Reuters.
Valued at between $60 million and $70 million, the purchase represents one of Tehran’s largest known efforts to bolster its short-range air defense capabilities since the outbreak of hostilities with the US and Israel.
According to the sources, the contract covers between 300 and 400 man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, including Chinese-made QW-12 and FN-16 missiles.
The deal was signed with Hong Kong-based Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, which reportedly acted as an intermediary between the Iranian side and the Chinese supplier.
Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not yet responded to a request for comment from Reuters regarding the information provided by the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued the following statement:
“The relevant reports are completely baseless. China has consistently played a role in promoting peace and bringing an end to the conflict.”
Beijing-based Zhong Qing Bao Shang Group, the parent company of Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent on Tuesday.
Iran needs to rearm following months of conflict during which the US and Israel struck facilities tied to its missile, drone, and air defense programs. Tehran responded to those attacks with salvos of ballistic missiles and drones.
The fighting demonstrated the difficulty of defending static military and strategic installations against advanced fighter jets and precision-guided munitions.
Washington abruptly halted its two-week bombing campaign on Saturday. However, US President Donald Trump said attacks would resume if negotiations aimed at ending the five-month war—which has theoretically been under a ceasefire since April—fail.
The delivery of hundreds of MANPADS systems would significantly expand Iran’s inventory of short-range air defense weapons.
However, the sources cautioned that while the agreement has been signed, the delivery schedule, quantities, and other operational details remain subject to change.
Under the plan agreed upon by the parties, initial deliveries will be transported by air from the western Chinese city of Urumqi before being routed through Pakistan to Iran. The sources did not clarify whether transport following the transit through Pakistan would occur by air or land.
The Pakistani military’s public relations wing, ISPR, said in a statement:
“Allegations that Pakistan is playing a role in the supply of air defense weapons from China to Iran are completely fabricated and contrary to fact.”
Two Western intelligence sources and an Iranian official said Tehran is also exploring the option of using overland routes to transport Chinese-made military equipment and dual-use components more covertly, reducing the risk of shipments being intercepted.
The procurement process underscores how the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to rely on a combination of domestic arms production and foreign suppliers, despite years of sanctions and defense import restrictions.
Reuters previously reported, citing individuals familiar with the discussions, that Iran was close to concluding a separate deal to purchase anti-ship cruise missiles from China. Reuters was unable to confirm whether that agreement was finalized.
Middle East
Saudi crude exports from Yanbu plunge 40% as Yemeni strikes force reliance on costlier routes
Crude oil shipments from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast have dropped by 40% over the past few days.
According to data published on July 26 by maritime intelligence firm Vortexa, the Riyadh administration has begun utilizing the SUMED pipeline in Egypt and alternative transit routes in an effort to bypass the naval blockade declared by forces aligned with Sanaa.
The sharp decline in shipment volumes follows retaliatory operations and the enforcement of a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia by the Yemeni Armed Forces, operating under the Ansarallah movement.
Riyadh has maintained military strikes and blockade measures against Yemen for nearly 12 years.
A Sunday report by maritime intelligence firm Windward, drawing on Vortexa data, noted that Saudi Arabia has established a new logistical framework to maintain its export flows. “Saudi Arabia has created an alternative export route functioning via the SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope,” the report stated. The agency reported that this shift has driven up transportation costs by approximately $9 per barrel.
The market analysis report provided the following assessment regarding the operational mechanics of the transition:
“Saudi crude shipments have not stopped; they have been split into two distinct routes. Tankers berthing at Yanbu Port are now operating with their AIS signals completely turned off. Vessels are concealing their locations to avoid inclusion on Ansarallah’s target list. Saudi Arabia has established an alternative export route operating via the SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope. Although this route increases costs and transit times, it demonstrates that the market is capable of adapting to changing conditions.”
Saudi Arabia previously activated a similar alternative route via Yanbu during the initial phase of the US-Israel war, following Iran’s first blockade measures directed at the Strait of Hormuz.
At the time of the Windward report’s release, satellite imagery published by SoarAtlas revealed the ongoing situation at Saudi Aramco’s Jizan Oil Refinery. Massive fires triggered by attacks carried out by the Yemeni Armed Forces were shown to be persisting at the $12 billion facility. Images captured on Saturday documented dense black smoke continuing to billow from a giant oil storage tank at the site.
The Yemeni Armed Forces publicly announced their latest military operations against Saudi Arabia on July 25. They stated that the strikes were executed in response to the Saudi-led coalition resuming aerial bombardments against the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah.
An official statement issued by the Yemeni military under the Ansarallah-led administration provided the following details:
“In response to this overt and criminal aggression, the Yemeni Armed Forces carried out two specialized military operations. In the first operation, sensitive Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan were targeted with dozens of ballistic missiles and drones. In the second operation, sensitive Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu were struck using ballistic and cruise missiles alongside unmanned aerial vehicles.”
Spokespersons for the Yemeni military emphasized that the strikes were “precise” and “direct,” while residents in the city of Yanbu were reported to have heard explosions over the weekend. In the early hours of Saturday, Saudi airstrikes had targeted fuel storage facilities and telecommunications infrastructure in Hodeidah.
Mahdi al-Mashat, President of the Ansarallah Supreme Political Council, issued a warning to the Saudi Arabian leadership in a statement on July 27. “We say to the Saudi enemy that those offering you false hopes will be of no avail. Anything short of an end to the aggression and the complete lifting of the blockade is mere fantasy,” al-Mashat said.
In line with their naval blockade decision, the Yemeni Armed Forces have also targeted two Saudi oil tankers with missiles in recent days. The Sanaa administration officially initiated its maritime restrictions on July 20 under the stated principle of “a blockade for a blockade.”
This latest phase of heightened tension began in early July when Saudi Arabia launched an airstrike targeting Sanaa International Airport for the first time after a prolonged hiatus. Yemeni forces responded by striking Abha Airport in Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones. The attack marked the Yemeni military’s first direct retaliatory strike inside Saudi territory since 2021.
The Saudi-led coalition initially intervened in Yemen in 2015 after Ansarallah took control of the capital, Sanaa, and ousted the Riyadh-backed government. The United Arab Emirates joined as a principal coalition partner, while the UK, the US, and Israel provided logistical support.
During peace negotiations conducted between Saudi Arabia and Yemen in 2023, the parties came close to a final agreement before talks stalled. Nevertheless, those contacts effectively served to freeze large-scale combat operations for an extended period.
The air and sea blockade enforced by Saudi Arabia for over a decade has deepened the humanitarian crisis, particularly due to commercial flight restrictions imposed on Sanaa International Airport. These measures have prevented critically ill and injured civilians from traveling abroad for medical treatment, while the coalition’s military intervention has driven widespread famine and resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. Prior to Riyadh’s latest airstrikes, Yemeni forces had been conducting a general mobilization aimed at expelling coalition elements from the country.
Middle East
Pentagon faces severe budget crunch as Middle East operational costs drain key military funds
The US Department of Defense is facing a severe budgetary shortfall driven by the escalation of the war with Iran, according to current and former American officials cited by The Washington Post.
Officials noted that funding for several critical areas could be completely exhausted in the coming weeks. Budgets allocated for this year’s operations of the Navy and Air Force, which have deployed warships and aviation assets to the Middle East, are projected to run out by the end of July.
To cover the funding deficit expected before the start of fiscal year 2027 on October 1, the Pentagon is internally redirecting its budgetary resources. Under this approach, military exercises and training sessions designed to maintain troop combat readiness are being scaled back or canceled. Additionally, funds originally allocated for the maintenance and repair of military equipment and facilities are being transferred to operational expenses.
In recent weeks, the Department of Defense requested permission from Congress to shift $4.3 billion—initially allocated for personnel training and weapons procurement—to cover emergency requirements. However, no decision has yet been made regarding this request.
The White House has also requested that Congress allocate $67 billion in emergency supplemental funding to cover military expenditures. Despite this, the House of Representatives plans to begin a one-month recess on Thursday, which will delay any decision on the funding for at least several weeks.
“Everyone needs to look at this situation and shake off the complacency,” said Representative Pat Harrigan, a Republican from North Carolina, commenting on the development.
Pentagon Spokesperson Sean Parnell emphasized the critical importance of defense funding, stating that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will do everything necessary to maintain the combat readiness of the armed forces.
Secretary Hegseth and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, are scheduled to present the justification for the funding allocation at an upcoming hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. Russell Vought, the Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, is also among those scheduled to testify before the committee.
Vought stated last month that the cost of the war had reached approximately $30 billion. However, this White House calculation did not include the cost of rebuilding and repairing US bases damaged as a result of Iranian attacks in the Middle East.
Current and former officials warn that if Congress fails to act, military leadership will soon be forced to make even deeper compromises.
In closed-door discussions, Pentagon officials are expressing more profound anxieties. They emphasize that supplemental funding is urgently required to replenish munitions stockpiles, which are vital for deterring adversaries such as Russia and China.
The US defense budget for this year stands at approximately $1 trillion. This figure includes $150 billion in one-time funding approved by Congress last year for various priority goals, ranging from designing advanced weapons systems to stimulating the domestic defense industry. Meanwhile, the Donald Trump administration has requested a $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027.
Internal Pentagon assessments indicate that when accounting for base repairs, the replacement of destroyed aircraft, and the replenishment of munitions stockpiles, the total cost of the Iran war could rise to between $80 billion and $100 billion, according to reporting by NBC. Sources state that the repair costs for US military facilities in Bahrain alone could reach $1 billion.
Senators are expected to question Hegseth on the collapse of the ceasefire, rising war costs, and the American service members who lost their lives in Jordan, Bloomberg reported.
-
America2 weeks agoUS controls $13 billion in Venezuelan oil revenues with little transparency, raising congressional concerns
-
America2 weeks agoUS agricultural superpower status at risk as trade wars shift global markets to Brazil
-
Europe2 weeks agoUS secures multi-billion-dollar energy and AI deals at Three Seas summit in Dubrovnik
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoPalantir CEO Alex Karp says he would not vote for ‘pro-Russian’ AfD in Germany
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoWorld Bank warns US-Iran conflict could slash global growth to 1.3% as inflation looms
-
Middle East2 weeks agoPentagon faces severe budget crunch as Middle East operational costs drain key military funds
-
Europe2 weeks agoGermany accelerates African energy diplomatic push to secure natural gas and green hydrogen
-
Middle East2 weeks agoOil passes $90 as tanker attacks halt Hormuz shipping
