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Grid strikes erase Ukraine’s growth prospects as industrial output plunges

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Disruptions to the electrical grid have plunged the Ukrainian economy into its most profound crisis since the full-scale military intervention began, triggering a sharp contraction in industrial output and a simultaneous erosion of public revenue.

An analysis of statistical data and interviews conducted by Reuters with executives from the nation’s largest firms reveals the staggering scale of the emergency. Systematic Russian strikes targeting the energy architecture have forced a broad spectrum of Ukrainian industry—ranging from metallurgical plants and mining operations to food processors—to scale back production volumes while absorbing spiraling operational costs.

Sergiy Pilipenko, General Director of Kovalska Group, the country’s leading producer of concrete and construction materials, noted that emergency shutdowns occurring without predictable schedules have, at times, cost the company 50% of its production volume.

Economic activity records first decline since 2023

The Ukrainian economy contracted by approximately one-third during the first year of the conflict. Despite the modest growth recorded in subsequent years, output remains substantially below pre-war levels. The demographic shift has been equally seismic, with approximately 6 million people fleeing the country and more than 3 million internally displaced—meaning more than one-fifth of the pre-war population has been uprooted.

The monthly business activity index from the Kyiv Institute for Economic Research slipped into negative territory in February for the first time since 2023. Oleksandr Myronenko, Chief Operating Officer of the mining and steel giant Metinvest, observed that the economic growth projected for this year failed to materialize in the first two months due to the relentless strikes on power generation and transport infrastructure.

Economist Natalya Kolesnichenko calculated that in January and February, energy demand exceeded supply by a margin of 30%.

Energy crisis bleeds millions from the state budget

First Deputy Prime Minister Yuliya Svyrydenko revealed that the energy crisis cost the state budget approximately 12 billion hryvnias ($280 million) in January alone. Against this backdrop, growth forecasts have deteriorated sharply; the National Bank of Ukraine has revised its growth outlook downward from 2% to 1.8%.

Private investment firms offer even bleaker assessments. Dragon Capital anticipates growth of just 1%, while ICU forecasts a mere 0.8%. According to ICU’s analysis, between 20% and 25% of total economic output is now critically dependent on a stable energy supply.

External factors and logistical hurdles deepen the crisis

The domestic predicament is being further complicated by external geopolitical pressures. Hungary and Slovakia have threatened to suspend electricity exports to Ukraine unless oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline—halted following Russian strikes—are resumed.

Data from the consultancy ExPro indicates that these two nations accounted for 68% of Ukraine’s electricity imports in February, underscoring the severity of the potential leverage.

Corporate efficiency craters as costs surge

Despite businesses investing millions of dollars into backup power solutions, a survey by the European Business Association showed that blackouts have hampered operations for four out of every five companies.

Half of the firms surveyed reported a loss in productivity, while 61% cited rising costs. ArcelorMittal reported that it was forced to idle equipment in January due to energy shortages, resulting in a loss of approximately 10% in hot metal production and a decline of more than 25% in rolled steel products.

Diplomacy

Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour

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Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.

As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.

The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.

Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.

In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.

Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”

US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”

On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.

According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.

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Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions

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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.

According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.

Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.

The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.

Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.

He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.

Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.

Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.

The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.

On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.

In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.

In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.

The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.

Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.

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Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.

In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.

“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”

Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.

He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.

Washington pledges to maintain defence support

Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.

“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.

Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.

“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.

Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks

In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.

He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.

Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”

Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.

The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.

In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.

The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.

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