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Hezbollah halts fire following US-Iran truce as Netanyahu excludes Lebanon from ceasefire

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Hezbollah has ceased fire in Lebanon following the announcement of a two-week truce between the United States and Iran, yet Israeli forces continued their offensive, creating fresh uncertainty across the Lebanese front. According to three Lebanese sources close to the group who spoke to Reuters, Hezbollah halted fire against northern Israel and Israeli units within Lebanon early Wednesday; however, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the ceasefire does not extend to Lebanon.

Following this development, the Israeli military maintained its strikes in southern Lebanon and issued new evacuation orders. Simultaneously, the Lebanese army urged civilians not to return to villages along the border.

While the US decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks has established a new diplomatic landscape regarding the trajectory of the regional war, the scope of the ceasefire on the Lebanese front became a subject of contention within its first hours.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that the US, Iran, and their allies had reached an agreement for an “immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and elsewhere.” Shortly thereafter, however, Netanyahu declared that the truce was not applicable to Lebanon.

In a statement released via X, Netanyahu noted that Israel supports initiatives by US President Donald Trump aimed at ensuring “Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile, and terror threat to America, Israel, Iran’s Arab neighbors, and the world.”

Despite this, Netanyahu explicitly emphasized in the same statement that the two-week ceasefire “does not include Lebanon.”

Notwithstanding Netanyahu’s position, three Lebanese sources informed Reuters that Hezbollah has stopped firing on the ground. These sources added that Hezbollah is expected to issue a formal declaration outlining its official stance regarding the ceasefire and Netanyahu’s comments excluding Lebanon.

The Israeli side, meanwhile, opted to continue its offensive. Lebanese media reported fresh Israeli strikes targeting the south of the country, as the Israeli military issued another evacuation call for the southern coastal city of Tyre.

Military spokesperson Avichay Adraee warned residents, particularly those in the Shabriha area, to “evacuate your homes immediately,” sharing a map pinpointing the specific building to be targeted.

It was noted that the entirety of Tyre already falls within the broad evacuation zone covering southern Lebanon, and the Israeli military has repeatedly called on residents to leave the area in recent weeks.

Prompted by the activity on the ground, the Lebanese army issued a public warning to civilians. The army command stated that news of a ceasefire had created an expectation of return among the public; however, it warned that such a move carries serious security risks while Israeli attacks continue. Consequently, the military requested that citizens refrain from returning to southern villages and towns.

The statement emphasized that civilians must not approach areas where Israeli forces have advanced, warning that they would otherwise risk their lives due to the ongoing strikes.

According to Lebanese officials, more than 1,500 people have been killed and over 1 million displaced in Israeli attacks on Lebanon since March 2.

The Israeli military, having launched an invasion in the south of the country, previously announced its intention to seize more territory to expand an area it defines as a “buffer zone.”

According to Al Jazeera correspondent Nida Ibrahim, the possibility of an agreement with Iran or a potential de-escalation places Netanyahu in a difficult political position.

Ibrahim noted that Netanyahu feels compelled to demonstrate to the Israeli public that the war continues on at least one front, leading him to keep the Lebanese front active.

In this context, the deployment of additional troops to Southern Lebanon and the maintenance of military pressure are linked not only to security calculations on the ground but also to the need to project a message for domestic politics. Ibrahim stated that Israel’s primary concern is a scenario where hostilities end, a basis for an agreement with Iran is formed, or the war rapidly dissipates.

At the onset of the conflict, Netanyahu had promised the public “absolute victory,” “regime change,” and the “elimination of the Iranian threat.”

The fact that none of these objectives have been met at this stage increases the pressure on Netanyahu. Consequently, the Lebanese front serves a political function in addition to its military role.

Indeed, opposition leader Yair Lapid targeted Netanyahu directly, describing the process as “a political catastrophe of a magnitude never seen in our history.” Lapid stated that Israel was not even at the table when decisions concerning the core of national security were being made.

In his statement, Lapid noted that the military had done everything asked of it and that the public had shown great resilience.

Conversely, the opposition leader asserted that Netanyahu has failed both politically and strategically. Lapid stated that Netanyahu had not achieved a single one of the goals he set for himself and remarked that repairing the resulting political and strategic damage would take years.

Middle East

US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt

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The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.

The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.

Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.

Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.

A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.

Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.

A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”

This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.

An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”

The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”

“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.

The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.

The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.

A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.

In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”

The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.

The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.

Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.

Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.

In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.

Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.

This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.

Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.

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Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks

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Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.

This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.

United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.

Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.

The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.

Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.

Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.

“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.

Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.

The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.

Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.

Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.

Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.

Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.

The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.

Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.

Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”

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Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.

Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.

Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.

The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.

The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”

Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.

Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.

Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”

Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.

According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:

“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”

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