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A year that shook the global system

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It has been a year since February 24th. The long history of the Russian-Ukrainian tensions has been marked by a year of hot conflict. While the parties did not give up on their strategic goals, the door of a long period of uncertainty was opened in which the global system skidded and shook.

On February 24, 2022, Russian leader Vladimir Putin announced the launch of a “special operation” and led the Russian army into Ukraine. Thus, the long-standing Russia-Ukraine tensions, in other words, the mistrust between the West and Russia, has moved to another level.

The security mechanisms established with Europe and NATO after the Cold War and the Minsk I and Minsk II agreements, which are the address of the search for a solution to the crisis in Ukraine, have lost their historical meaning. It remains unclear how this new page will be closed and how the European security order will take shape in the aftermath of this war.

“This is a European war,” said Prof. Dr. Vişne Korkmaz, “There are vehicles of various sizes on this military and political battlefield. We are on a crowded floor. We are not in the same situation as we were in 1945.”

“The fight started on a crowded field,” Korkmaz said, noting that arm wrestling over the global system could continue for a long time in line with the parties’ own agendas.

What was Russia’s goal?

The Russo-Ukrainian war, or “special military operation” as Moscow calls it, began as a result of a failure to meet the security guarantees demanded by Russia from the United States and NATO, and in total from the Atlantic world. The Western system, led by the United States, responded to Moscow’s intensified insistence in the last quarter of 2021 on “security guarantees”, the story of which dates back to the end of the Cold War, by further arming Ukraine.

For decision-makers in the Kremlin, this meant ignoring Russia as a great power. Dialogue mechanisms and protocols aimed at softening the conflicts and finding a solution were now “a diversionary tactic used by the West to further arm Ukraine” for Moscow.

Nisantasi University Faculty Member Prof. Dr. Vişne Korkmaz sees the historic decision on February 24th as a “mistake” for Moscow and adds “this conflict is also about shaping European security.”

Evaluating the one-year war process to Harici, Korkmaz said, “Russia had two goals. Converting the post-Cold War European Security architecture to a point where it would be more advantageous. They failed to accomplish this without war. The West did not give Russia what it wanted in this sense. Russia became a party to the conventional European war. Secondly, we were aware of the conventional power of Russia. Russia was a great power, but not quite. Russia wanted to become a great power. Status is a position granted by the parties to you. Russia could not come close to achieving these two goals, but I do not see a war that Russia has lost yet. The facts of the field do not show a complete loss.”

How to disrupt the pat situation on the field?

“We are not evaluating the fronts of a war that ended like the Second World War. We are currently following an open conflict between two asymmetrical forces: this is a European war!” Korkmaz emphasized the lively, dynamic and variable aspect of the process.

Korkmaz assessed that the reality on the field could change if Ukraine sweeps the Russian forces from its territory or if Russia changes its strategic objectives, and said that she does not see such a possibility for the time being.

“It is a strange war, a war that can be continued. It will probably take longer. There are unknowns,” Korkmaz said, adding that both Russia and the West have made miscalculations.

“There is a deadlock for Russia that it has not given up on. I do not think it will revise its strategic goals. It has not even revised its tactical goals. It has not given up on its demands regarding the security future of the EU,” Korkmaz summarized Moscow’s current situation and added “The West also made a mistake, thinking that Russia could be isolated very easily. Russia has to continue in a way that brings it closer to its strategic goals. Moscow could not be pushed out of the system globally. It is not easy to keep a great power out of the system.”

What is the situation on the Western Front?

Referring to the “different voices” that emerge from time to time in the West, Korkmaz said, “Everyone has a different purpose. Each purpose has its own unique schedule. We are talking about a long struggle with different stages.”

Stating that it was a “struggle over the global system unlike the Cold War”, Korkmaz said, “Europe was caught unprepared and followed the US. It could not create its own stance and means.”

For the state of Europe, Korkmaz noted, “There seems to be only one West. Different voices have died out. Europe had to adapt itself to the NATO and EU agenda because it was not prepared. That is why Europe did not speak out.”

Where and how will the war end?

While the Istanbul process and the People’s Republic of China’s 12-point plan stand out as concrete efforts to resolve the crisis, there has yet to be a strong will to bring the parties to the negotiating table. The West is currently busy arming Ukraine, and Russia is reportedly preparing for a frontal offensive.

“I do not think Russia will test ‘NATO’ deterrence. There is a real risk that the war will spread to areas outside the NATO umbrella, such as Moldova,” Korkmaz said.

According to Prof. Dr. Korkmaz the United States has begun to move more towards the Asian front regarding its global goals. At this point, “The United States has been targeting China in particular recently. The message given through Ukraine is directed at China. The United States have more time for China,” she said and commented “The West has succeeded in limiting Russia to the Ukraine war.”

Korkmaz thinks that “the peace plans do not offer much either,” adding, “We are still in a deep stalemate. Russia has not lost totally.” Stating that although the “Ukrainian resistance” has been successful so far, Kiev is also far from winning, Korkmaz argued that a long-term struggle is a reality.

For now, it seems impossible to predict where the gods of war will stop. What is certain is that the world has become too large to fit into its old mold and seems ready to establish a new security framework. It is necessary to see that peace can only be established around new concepts and with a new understanding.

A quote by the famous Italian Marxist Antonio Gramcsi summarizes the situation: “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.”

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Putin signals readiness for Arctic cooperation, including with the West

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Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at the plenary session of the International Arctic Forum in Murmansk on March 27, stated that Russia is ready for cooperation in the Arctic with both friendly nations and, should they express interest, Western countries.

Putin noted that international interaction in the Arctic is not currently experiencing its best period.

The President mentioned that the Arctic Council was previously established for cooperation, but this mechanism “has weakened today.”

“As they say in such cases: If you don’t want to, it’s up to you,” Putin added.

According to the Vedomosti daily, Putin also addressed US President Donald Trump’s idea of purchasing Greenland from Denmark.

According to Putin, “this might only seem surprising at first glance.” He stated it would be incorrect to consider these discussions unusual, adding, “In fact, such plans by the US emerged in the 1860s. At that time, the American administration was considering the possibility of annexing Greenland and Iceland, but this idea did not receive support from Congress.”

Putin then recounted the history of the matter, including the US establishing military bases on the island during World War II and subsequently offering to buy Greenland from Denmark after the war concluded.

According to the President, this issue primarily concerns relations between the US and Denmark and does not involve Russia. However, “the only fact that certainly worries us is that NATO countries are increasingly designating the Far North as a potential springboard for conflicts and are practicing the use of troops under these conditions.”

Furthermore, Putin stated that Russia is not threatening anyone in the Arctic but is establishing a defense line.

He detailed that the Arctic region constitutes more than a quarter of Russia’s territory, is home to approximately 2.5 million Russian citizens, and accounts for 7% of the country’s GDP and about 11% of its exports.

The President highlighted that cargo flow on the Northern Sea Route has increased tenfold over the last decade, rising from 4 million tons in 2014 to approximately 38 million tons in 2024. Projections estimate cargo flow will reach 70-100 million tons by 2030.

Putin emphasized that the primary objective is to transform the Northern Sea Route into a key segment of the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor, extending from St. Petersburg via Murmansk to Vladivostok.

According to Putin, this route “should connect the world’s industrial, agricultural, energy centers, and consumer markets via a shorter, safer, and economically profitable route.”

Putin outlined several tasks for developing the Trans-Arctic Corridor. Noting that Russia currently possesses the world’s largest icebreaker fleet, he stressed the need to strengthen this position and commission new-generation icebreakers, including nuclear-powered ones currently unique to Russia.

“Four of these—the newest 22220 series—are already operating in the Arctic. Three more nuclear icebreakers of this series are under construction—Chukotka, Leningrad, and Stalingrad—as well as the super-powerful 120-megawatt Rossiya icebreaker,” Putin stated.

He also mentioned Russia’s need for its own merchant fleet, including cargo and emergency rescue vessels, to facilitate transportation in the Arctic.

Observing that current capacity is insufficient, Putin said, “It is necessary to move in all directions: purchase and order ready-made ships, establish cooperation with global manufacturers, and generally align the entire Russian shipbuilding system with upcoming strategic tasks.”

He added that the government should support Russian shipbuilding and repair enterprises and explore the issue of shipyard construction.

Putin also stated that conditions must be created for domestic operators transporting cargo via the Arctic within Russia, adding that Russia is prepared to establish joint ventures in this area.

“International logistics operators can profitably invest in such companies not only with capital and technology but also with a portion of their merchant fleets,” Putin assessed.

Stating that Russia will increase the capacity and turnover of its northern ports, Putin added that Belarus, China, the UAE, and other countries have shown interest in developing the Arctic’s transport infrastructure.

Putin announced that multimodal centers will be established within the framework of the Trans-Arctic Corridor and instructed the government to outline plans for expanding the capacity of Arctic seaports and identify locations for new ones.

He also confirmed that Russia will implement the Arctic Railway Polygon development project: “Today we are aware of the development issues concerning RZD (Russian Railways)… However, it is necessary to start thinking now about this—about what I just mentioned, the development of the Northern Railway.”

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Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok will revive, Deripaska says

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One of Russia’s wealthiest men, Oleg Deripaska, announced his belief that the project to create a unified economic zone between Russia and Europe, stretching from Lisbon to Vladivostok, will be revived.

In a statement on his Telegram channel, Deripaska noted that this project would exclude Britain.

Deripaska stated, “The inevitable rapprochement after the conflict between Russia and Germany will completely change the political map of the European continent and lead to the revival of the project to create an economic zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok. This situation, along with Scotland’s secession from the United Kingdom, will definitively bury the British Empire in history.”

Deripaska stated that Britain’s problems have been accumulating for years, chief among them being “the virtual bankruptcy of public finances” and the complete failure of Brexit hopes.

Deripaska added, “No one came up with the dream of creating a Singapore on the Thames, and there was no desire for it in a society full of leftist ideas and not inclined to meticulous work.”

Deripaska assessed, “The collapse of the legal system and the terrible incompetence of judges in London have virtually destroyed the investment environment, and tax changes for foreigners have completely finished this situation.”

“But the worst is yet to come,” said Deripaska, adding, “All we have to do is wait and ignore the audacious ideas like ‘boots on the field.’ Let them crow a little.”

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Ukraine retreats from most occupied areas in Russia’s Kursk oblast

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According to military analysts and soldiers who spoke to The New York Times (NYT), the Ukrainian army has withdrawn from almost all of the territory it occupied in Russia’s Kursk oblast.

As a result of Moscow’s counterattacks, Ukraine’s months-long operation to seize and occupy Russian territory is nearing its end.

At the peak of the offensive, the Ukrainian army controlled approximately 1,295 square kilometers of Russian territory.

According to Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst at the Finland-based Black Bird Group, as of Sunday, the Ukrainian army was trying to hold on to a narrow area of approximately 78 square kilometers along the Russia-Ukraine border.

“The end of the war is coming,” Paroinen told the newspaper.

While the amount of Russian territory under Ukrainian control could not be independently verified, intense fighting was reported in the region.

With Russia’s rapid advance, supported by continuous air strikes and drone attacks, the Ukrainian army withdrew last week from several villages in Kursk oblast and from Sudzha, the main city they controlled.

The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced that the troops had withdrawn to more defensible areas inside Russia and were taking advantage of the rugged terrain to provide better fire control against the approaching Russian forces.

On Sunday, it published a map showing the narrow area that Ukraine still controlled in Kursk oblast.

However, it remains unclear how long the Ukrainian army will be able to hold this area.

Ukrainian soldiers stated that the ongoing fighting in Kursk is no longer about holding Russian territory, but rather about controlling the best defensive positions to prevent the Russians from entering Ukraine’s Sumy oblast and opening a new front in the war.

An assault company commander, who identified himself only by his radio code, Boroda, said in a telephone interview, “We continue to maintain our positions on the Kursk front,” and added: “The only difference is that our positions have moved significantly closer to the border.”

Military experts say that although Ukraine’s withdrawal from most of Kursk oblast was rapid, it came after months of Russian attacks and bombardment that gradually weakened Ukraine’s foothold in the region and cut off supply routes, eventually making withdrawal necessary.

Austrian military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady, who visited Ukraine’s Sumy oblast on the Kursk border last month and met with Ukrainian commanders, said, “What has happened in the last few months was an operation that prepared the conditions for a successful advance.”

Serhiy Kuzan, the head of the non-governmental organization Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, said, “There was no danger of encirclement of Ukrainian troops, and there is no evidence to the contrary.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s special representative for the Middle East and also a mediator with Russia, Steve Witkoff, told CNN on Sunday that he expected Trump to meet with Putin this week.

Witkoff said he had a positive three-to-four-hour meeting with Putin last week. While refraining from sharing the details of their discussions, Witkoff expressed his continued optimism that an agreement could still be reached.

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