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US move brings Netanyahu to his knees, not Israel

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The US abstention for the first time on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza has further strained Biden-Netanyahu relations, which have been tense for some time. Netanyahu cancelled the programme of the Israeli delegation that was due to travel to the US to discuss the Rafah operation plan. The US, which does not want to stop Israel’s attack on Gaza but wants to save its own damaged image and bring Netanyahu to his knees, claimed that the UNSC resolution was not binding, which drew the reaction of the UN.

The US abstained from yesterday’s call for a ceasefire after rejecting 6 of the UNSC resolutions calling for a ceasefire since Israel’s attacks on Gaza began, making it the first time since 7 October that the UNSC has called for an emergency ceasefire in Gaza.

In the draft resolution prepared by non-permanent UNSC members Algeria, Ecuador, Guyana, Japan, Malta, Mozambique, South Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia and Switzerland, the phrase “permanent ceasefire” was agreed. At the last moment, the US delegation requested an amendment to the text of the draft resolution, replacing the word “permanent” with “durable”. This is believed to have given the US more flexibility in the ceasefire process.

The resolution, which calls for “an immediate ceasefire during Ramadan that is respected by all parties, leading to a permanent and sustainable ceasefire, and the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages,” also calls for access for humanitarian and medical assistance to the hostages.

Reaction from Israel

Following the decision, Israeli Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz said: “Israel will not stop firing. We will destroy Hamas”. Netanayhu announced that he had cancelled the delegation’s visit to Washington for the Rafah operation in light of the US abstention. The Israeli opposition blamed Netanyahu for the US abstention.

Why did the US take this step now?

US President Joe Biden, the leader of the Democrats, is facing criticism from his own base as well as on the international stage over the ongoing Israeli attacks in Gaza, which do not spare civilians. Biden is the target of criticism both for his support of Israel and for his inability to rein in Netanyahu. Biden is trying to take careful steps to mitigate the criticism, but not to confront the Israel lobby, which is known to be quite strong. For some time, Biden has been urging Netanyahu to present a credible and coherent vision for post-war Gaza and to prepare a realistic plan for a ground operation in Rafah that would not harm civilians. But the Netanyahu government, which rejected the US plans for the next day, has failed to explain its own vision, nor has it been able to present a convincing plan for Rafah. To sum up, the US does not want Israel to stop the Gaza operation altogether, but to limit it to the extent that civilian casualties are reduced, or at least to present a vision along these lines.

Netanyahu, who rejects all US demands, hopes to stall Washington until the presidential elections in November. The Biden administration has taken several steps to “teach” the Israeli prime minister a lesson for his intransigence. First, he hosted Benny Gantz, a member of the war cabinet and possible next Israeli prime minister, in Washington, despite Netanyahu’s opposition. Then Biden’s close friend, Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer, said that Israel should go to elections, which was applauded by Biden. Since these moves by the Biden administration were aimed at Netanyahu, they did not elicit a reaction from the Israel lobby.

The reason for the “non-binding” statement

The abstention on the UNSC resolution, however, may not be greeted with the same optimism. Even if it puts Netanyahu in a difficult situation, it has consequences for Israel.

Indeed, in the wake of this resolution, which provoked Israel’s reaction, the Washington administration surprisingly claimed that the UNSC resolution was not binding and reiterated its support for Israel. White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby said that they did not veto the Gaza resolution because of the combination of the demand for a ceasefire and the release of all hostages and the reference to the ongoing hostage negotiations. On the other hand, Kirby explained that they abstained from voting “yes” because Hamas was not condemned in the text of the bill, saying, “Our vote does not represent a change in our policy.Noting that they had seen the release of hostages as the most important part of the ceasefire agreement from the beginning, Kirby said, “We continue to stand behind Israel.We continue to provide them with the resources and military capabilities they need to defend themselves against Hamas. Nothing in this non-binding resolution has changed in terms of what Israel can and cannot do in terms of self-defence.

The US had put a similar resolution, which it claimed was non-binding, to a vote in the UN Security Council, but it was not adopted due to the vetoes of Russia and China.

The US claim that the resolution is non-binding is linked to the fact that the resolution uses the phrase “a ceasefire is requested” instead of “decides on the need for a ceasefire” according to Article 7 of the UN Charter.However, under Article 25 of the UN Charter, resolutions do not have to refer to Article 7 to be binding.

The US “non-binding” statement drew the reaction of the UN and other countries.UN deputy spokesman Farhan Haq said: “All UN Security Council resolutions are international law. Just as international law is binding, so are UNSC resolutions”. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also stressed that “this resolution must be implemented, its failure is inexcusable”.

Middle East

Hamas rejects partial ceasefire proposal

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Hamas announced its readiness to release all hostages in exchange for an end to the war, Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, and the start of the reconstruction process.

Hamas’s chief negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, responded to Israel’s “partial” ceasefire proposals. Hayya stated that Hamas had fulfilled all its obligations under the three-phase ceasefire agreement reached after one and a half years of negotiations. He added, “However, the Netanyahu government sabotaged the agreement before the first phase was even completed and carried out severe massacres against our people.”

Hayya stated that Netanyahu wants to continue the war to protect his political future. He said that Hamas had accepted the proposal presented by mediators during Ramadan, but Netanyahu rejected it and presented a new suggestion that did not include ending the war or withdrawal.

The Hamas leader said that all hostages could be released in exchange for Israel ending its attacks, completely withdrawing from Gaza, starting the reconstruction process, and lifting the blockade. Hayya emphasized their readiness for immediate negotiations on this comprehensive package.

Hayya stated that Netanyahu’s proposal prolongs the war and hunger, and therefore cannot be accepted. He stated that the weapons held by Hamas are a result of the occupation and represent a legitimate right of resistance.

Hayya expressed that Hamas welcomed the view of the US Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs that “the issue of war and prisoners should be resolved together,” stating that this stance aligns with Hamas’s position. He also called on the international community for urgent intervention to lift the Gaza blockade.

US National Security Council Spokesperson James Hewitt argued that Hamas’s statements serve violence, not peace. Hewitt said, “The Trump administration’s terms have not changed: Release the hostages or face hell.”

Israel and Hamas had signed a phased ceasefire plan in January, but this plan collapsed after the first phase. While Hamas sought to proceed to the second phase outlined in the agreement, Israel attempted to renegotiate the terms for releasing more hostages without guaranteeing a complete end to the war. Upon Hamas’s rejection of this proposal, Israel resumed its military attacks and occupation in Gaza on March 18.

Netanyahu is unwilling to end the war until Hamas’s military and administrative capabilities are completely destroyed. This stance is also supported by his far-right partners in the coalition. These partners threaten to bring down the government if Netanyahu ends the war.

Responding to al-Hayya’s statement, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that Israel would not surrender to Hamas and that the war in Gaza would not end until “total victory” is achieved. In a post on his X account, Smotrich said, “The gates of hell should be opened to Hamas, the war should be deepened with the complete occupation of Gaza, the destruction of Hamas, and Trump’s plan for the voluntary resettlement of Gazans in another country should be implemented.”

Far-right coalition partner and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said that Israel should increase its military pressure to bring Hamas to a state of “kneeling and begging.” Ben Gvir said, “Hamas cannot dictate terms, it obeys terms! No agreement, no ceasefire, no aid; only the continuation of the war until the Nazi-like elements in Gaza surrender.”

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Israel alarmed by US decision to withdraw from Syria

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Washington’s notification to Tel Aviv regarding its decision to withdraw from Syria has caused concern in Israel. The Tel Aviv administration is worried about Türkiye gaining strategic power in the region.

The Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported that the Washington administration informed Tel Aviv that it would begin a phased withdrawal of troops from Syria within two months. It also stated that Israel is attempting to prevent the US from withdrawing its military assets from Syria. The Tel Aviv administration is reportedly trying to prevent this move due to “fears that Türkiye will take over more strategic assets in the new Syria.”

The report noted that US President Donald Trump had previously announced his intention to withdraw troops from Syria, and the Pentagon, which has been working on withdrawal plans for a long time and is preparing to implement them, has informed the Israelis about this.

Israeli officials have “expressed serious concerns,” but this has reportedly had no impact on the US’s decision to withdraw.

Lebanon-based al-Mayadeen television reported last week that the US military had begun evacuating some military bases in northeastern Syria, moving personnel and equipment to Iraq.

According to a senior Israeli official who spoke to Yedioth Ahronoth, the US withdrawal of troops from northern Syria has the potential to increase tensions between Türkiye and Israel and “increase Türkiye’s appetite to control more strategic military points in Syria.”

The report stated that the US withdrawal process from Syria and President Trump’s remarks about President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House last week have put Israeli security institutions on alert, and Israeli officials did not find Trump’s mediation offer “reassuring.”

It was stated that Israel’s attacks in recent weeks on the T4 military base in the Tedmur (Palmyra) district of Homs province, where Türkiye was said to be stationed, were carried out to delay Türkiye’s deployment before the US withdrawal, and it was seen as a “race against time” before the US began to withdraw troops.

It is reported that Israel is afraid of the possibility that Türkiye will limit Israel’s freedom of movement in Syria and pose a potential threat to the Syrian territories it occupies in the future.

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Syria may recognize Israel by 2026, claims former UK diplomat

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According to former British diplomat Craig Murray, the Syrian administration led by HTŞ has assured the United Kingdom that they will recognize Israel by the end of 2026.

Craig Murray, the former British Ambassador to Uzbekistan and a human rights advocate, raised a striking allegation on his personal blog. In a post based on British diplomatic sources, Murray claimed that Abu Muhammad al-Julani (Ahmed Shara), the “president” who effectively controls Syria, has assured the United Kingdom that he will officially recognize Israel by the end of 2026 and that ambassadors will be appointed reciprocally.

According to the allegation, this move will be implemented in exchange for Western financial support and the lifting of sanctions on Syria.

Murray stated that the termination of Israel’s occupation of Syrian territories was not discussed as part of the agreement, and that the United Kingdom views this issue as a “bilateral matter.” It was also stated that Shara did not prioritize this demand.

According to Murray, the European Union’s foreign affairs units believe that Shara’s declared council of ministers has fulfilled its commitment to the EU to establish an “inclusive government” at the Brussels Conference on March 17. This commitment included the inclusion of Alawite and Christian communities, as well as women, in the administration.

Murray continued: “However, when looking at the 24-member cabinet announced on March 27, it was noted that 21 ministers, including those in critical ministries such as foreign affairs and finance, were Sunni men, with only one female minister who is both Christian and a Canadian citizen. The minority representatives in the cabinet (one Christian, one Alawite, and one Druze) were limited to insignificant ministries. The Shiite community was not given any representation.”

The former British diplomat described the EU’s acceptance of this picture as an “inclusive government” as a “farce.”

Murray stated, “Shara’s pro-Israel stance seems to have taken precedence over all other criteria.”

Craig Murray, a former member of the British Foreign Office, also claimed, again based on the same source, that Shara receives direct support from MI6 and British special forces. According to Murray, the primary mission of these units is to prevent possible rebellions among the militants affiliated with Shara.

Murray said that the Chechen, Uzbek, and Uighur fighters among these groups are currently satisfied with the “spoils of victory” they have obtained, but may not welcome a move such as the recognition of Israel in the future.

Murray also shared his own prediction at this point, saying that Shara may eliminate the radical elements within himself in the future: “I think that this Western-backed regime will eventually liquidate the most fanatical elements within itself. Otherwise, it seems impossible for him to maintain this balance as both an Islamic fundamentalist and a pro-US/Israel leader.”

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