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How will an Iranian attack affect Gaza?

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Israeli military analysts are divided over whether a direct confrontation with Iran would change the war in Gaza or influence the decision to occupy Rafah.

There is debate over how Iran’s rocket and drone attacks in response to Israel’s attack on its consulate in Damascus will affect the war in Gaza.

Israeli military analysts speaking to the New York Times are divided over whether a more direct confrontation with Iran will change the war in Gaza, now in its sixth month. The next turning point in this war may depend on whether Israel decides to pursue Hamas in the southern town of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians have fled because of the humanitarian crisis.

Some analysts argue that developments in Gaza will depend on whether Israel responds with a major counter-offensive against Iran. Others believe that Israel’s military campaign in Gaza will remain unaffected.

Shlomo Brom, a retired brigadier general and former head of the Israeli army’s strategic planning department, said that if Israel responded to an Iranian attack with a major force, it could trigger a multi-front war that would force the Israeli leadership to divert its attention away from Gaza. General Brom said that in the event of a major regional conflict, Israel might decide to postpone its plans to occupy Rafah, which Israeli officials have described as “the last Hamas stronghold”. “It is not comfortable for us to fight high-intensity wars in more than one area at the same time,” General Brom added.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has vowed to send ground troops into Rafah despite international pressure. An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Iranian attack would not affect the army’s plans to occupy Rafah.

General Brom said a large-scale direct confrontation with Iran could end the war in Gaza. But such an end to the war would require a broader ceasefire involving many parties, including Israel, Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah.

“There is an idea that in order to resolve a crisis, the situation first has to get worse,” Brom said, explaining that a comprehensive ceasefire after escalating tensions with Iran could lead that country to pressure its regional proxies to stop fighting Israel.

While members of Israel’s war cabinet made no official statement after Sunday’s meeting, an Israeli official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the talks said the country would respond to an Iranian attack, but it was unclear when and how.

But other military experts rejected any link between an Iranian attack and the war in Gaza.

“There is no connection,” said Amos Gilead, a retired major general who served in Israeli military intelligence. General Gilead said the Israeli army had sufficient resources to fight Iran and continue to fight Hamas in Gaza.

Other analysts made a similar point, arguing that the resources needed to fight Iran are different from those needed in Gaza. They said that Israel needs fighter jets and air defence systems to counter Iran. In contrast, they added, the army mainly needs ground troops, drones and helicopter gunships to fight Hamas in Gaza.

“There is no real tension between these two things,” said Giora Eiland, a retired major general and former head of Israel’s National Security Council.

Nevertheless, General Eiland said the success of the coalition, including the US, Britain and Jordan, in repelling the Iranian attack could inspire Israel to repair its battered international image by ending the war in Gaza.

While the US has largely supported Israel’s decision to go to war in Gaza, it has signalled its displeasure at the rising death toll and warned against a major ground offensive in Rafah. US support for Israel in shooting down Iranian drones and missiles on Sunday could put further pressure on its Israeli counterparts.

While General Eiland said such an outcome could help Israel win goodwill in the international community and contribute to a settlement that would end the war in Gaza and the conflict with Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia in Lebanon, he doubted Netanyahu would go down that road. “He says he wants to achieve ‘total victory’ in Gaza and take Rafah, a process that could take two or three months,” he said, referring to the prime minister: “Netanyahu clearly has a different mentality and priorities.”

MIDDLE EAST

Katz’s statement on Hezbollah disarmament surprises even Halevi

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Israel’s new Defense Minister, Israel Katz, appointed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to replace the recently dismissed Yoav Gallant, has sparked surprise with a bold declaration regarding Israel’s stance on Hezbollah. Katz stated that one of Israel’s primary goals is to disarm Hezbollah, leaving Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi notably surprised.

As Israel advances into southern Lebanon, negotiations continue in Washington and Beirut over a possible resolution to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. However, Katz emphasized that Israel would not halt its efforts until all military objectives are achieved.

“We will not cease fire, we will not ease pressure, and we will not support any agreement that does not fully achieve the goals of this war,” Katz declared during a visit to the Northern Command alongside Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi.

Katz outlined these objectives as: “disarming Hezbollah, pushing them beyond the Litani River, and ensuring the safe return of Israelis in northern areas to their homes.”

In the accompanying video, Halevi appeared visibly taken aback by Katz’s mention of disarming Hezbollah as an official objective, as this has not been publicly stated as a government directive.

Katz further stressed Israel’s right to “implement any agreement independently and to act decisively against any terrorist activity or organization.” He added, “We must continue to strike Hezbollah with full force.”

6 Israeli soldiers killed

Meanwhile, as Israel presses forward with its ground invasion of southern Lebanon, six more Israeli soldiers were killed in a clash with Hezbollah forces. This incident, one of the heaviest single-day casualties for Israel since the invasion’s onset, highlights the intensifying nature of the conflict.

According to a statement by the Israeli army, the soldiers, all from the 51st Battalion of the Golani Brigade, were killed in fire exchange with at least four Hezbollah fighters inside a building in a southern Lebanese village.

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Sexual harassment investigation targeting ICC Chief amid controversial prosecution

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) has enlisted independent investigators to examine allegations of sexual harassment against Prosecutor Karim Khan.

The accusations against Khan surfaced as the ICC evaluated Khan’s request to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant over alleged war crimes in Gaza.

Finnish diplomat Päivi Kaukoranta, who leads the ICC’s oversight body, stated that an external investigation was initiated after reports surfaced that Khan had acted inappropriately toward a female colleague. Normally, such matters are managed by the court’s internal audit, but Khan personally requested that the Independent Supervisory Mechanism (ISM) oversee the case. Kaukoranta explained, “In light of the case’s unique circumstances, the ISM’s victim-centered approach, and the potential for conflicts of interest, the ISM agreed to the exceptional use of an external investigation.”

Khan denied the allegations, stating, “I have previously called for an investigation into this matter and welcome the opportunity to participate in this process.”

The investigation coincides with the ICC’s deliberation over Khan’s request to issue warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity related to Israel’s actions in Gaza.

While Khan’s move was supported internationally, it drew criticism from the Biden administration and U.S. Congress. The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed legislation that sanctions individuals affiliated with the ICC, including judges and their families, underscoring the U.S. policy of opposition to ICC jurisdiction over Israel.

Reports have also surfaced regarding Israel’s alleged threats toward ICC officials. In May, The Guardian revealed that Khan’s predecessor, Fatou Bensouda, was pressured in “a series of secret meetings” with Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, a close ally of Netanyahu. Cohen reportedly advised Bensouda to “drop the war crimes investigation,” allegedly warning her, “You don’t want to be involved in anything that could endanger your safety or your family’s safety.”

Khan has since noted he faced pressure before submitting his application for the arrest warrant.

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Trump will conditionally support West Bank annexation

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Former Trump aides have cautioned Israeli ministers not to assume Trump’s unconditional support for West Bank annexation in a potential second term, according to The Times of Israel.

At least two officials from Donald Trump’s previous administration advised Israeli ministers to temper expectations about Trump’s support for Israel’s annexation of the West Bank. Sources close to the discussions indicated that while annexation is not off the table, Israeli leaders should avoid viewing it as a “foregone conclusion.”

The message was delivered in meetings and discussions held in the months leading up to Trump’s recent presidential victory. However, some far-right cabinet members remained undeterred. On Monday, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared that 2025 would mark “the year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank]” following Trump’s re-election. Last week, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir also asserted that “the time for sovereignty has come.”

On Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu announced Yechiel Leiter as Israel’s next ambassador to the United States. Leiter, a former settler leader, is known for his support of West Bank annexation and opposition to a Palestinian state.

In a statement to The Times of Israel, an anonymous Israeli official said Trump’s former advisers have not ruled out his potential support for annexation. However, they indicated it could jeopardize Trump’s broader foreign policy priorities, including countering Iran, competing with China, and ending the war in Ukraine. Trump would likely need the support of key Gulf allies—notably Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—to achieve these goals. Unconditional support for Israeli annexation, however, could risk backlash from these regional allies.

In 2020, Trump’s peace plan proposed annexing all Israeli settlements while leaving open the possibility of a Palestinian state in other areas of the West Bank. Although Prime Minister Netanyahu had hesitations, settler leaders and officials like Smotrich celebrated Trump’s recent victory as a chance to realize annexation plans.

A former Trump adviser told an Israeli minister that Trump’s support for Israeli sovereignty would likely come with more conditions than in 2020. After the Palestinian Authority rejected Trump’s “Peace to Prosperity” proposal in 2020, the Trump administration and Israel began planning a partial annexation of the West Bank. However, this initiative was set aside when the UAE agreed to normalize relations with Israel.

The U.S. commitment to the UAE to delay Israeli annexation efforts expires at the end of 2024. Still, a former Trump official told The Times of Israel that a major shift in U.S. support for annexation should not be expected. “If any shift happens, it would need to be part of a process,” the official commented.

Jason Greenblatt, Trump’s former Middle East envoy, reinforced this message, stating:

“I think it’s important that those in Israel who are celebrating President Trump’s victory do so because of his strong support for Israel, as evidenced by many historic achievements during his first term. Some Israeli ministers are assuming that expanding Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria is an automatic done deal and will happen as soon as President Trump takes office.

I suggest they take a deep breath. If I were advising these ministers, I would strongly urge them to focus on working closely with Prime Minister Netanyahu to strengthen U.S.-Israel relations and address the significant threats facing Israel. The time for discussions around Judea and Samaria will come, but context and timing are crucial.”

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