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Indian PM Modi meets Putin in Moscow for first time in five years

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Moscow on the afternoon of 8 July for a two-day official visit to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

This is Modi’s first visit to Russia since 2019 and his first meeting with Putin in two years, the last being at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand in September 2022.

The main talks are scheduled to take place today in an expanded and narrow format. This is Modi’s second visit after attending the G7 summit in Italy, a week after his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the elections.

The prime minister has also begun his third term in office since 2014. Putin’s meeting with Modi is also his first since the end of the election period in Russia.

Modi landed at the Vnukovo-1 government terminal at around 14:00 Moscow time yesterday, where he was greeted by First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov.

At 7.54pm Moscow time, the Kremlin said on its Telegram channel that an informal meeting between the two leaders had begun in Novo-Ogaryovo.

“You have your own ideas, you are an energetic person, you are able to achieve results in the interests of India,” Putin said at the start of the meeting, congratulating Modi on his re-election. Putin added that he intended to discuss the same issues with his guest in a “local atmosphere” as at the official meeting on 9 July.

The Indian prime minister’s account on social network X published a Russian-language post shortly after his arrival:

“We look forward to further deepening the special and privileged strategic partnership between our countries, especially in the areas of future cooperation.”

Bloomberg quoted sources as saying that the two sides could sign an agreement on the long-term supply of nuclear fuel from Russia.

The second phase of the Kudankulam nuclear power plant is being built with the help of Russia’s Federal Atomic Energy Corporation Rosatom and will be India’s largest, expanding from the current two units to six.

Rosatom director general Alexei Likhachev said in May that the plant would switch to ‘innovative’ fuel in the summer.

A year ago, India led the G20 and hosted the group’s summit in New Delhi, presenting itself as the leader of the global south.

At the time, Modi also pledged to make India the world’s third largest economy. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country ranks fifth in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and third in purchasing power parity behind China and the United States.

Vladimir Sotnikov, a leading researcher at the Institute of China and Modern Asia at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti that Indians believe Modi’s activities in the West will allow them to strengthen their role as a leader of the South and secure a permanent seat on the UN Security Council:

“Delhi’s ambitions coincide with Moscow’s interests; the two countries are not enemies and share an approach to building a new global order.”

Boris Volkhonsky, associate professor at the Lomonosov Institute of Asian and African Countries at Moscow State University, said Modi’s visit was a symbolic gesture that India would not join anti-Russian coalitions around the world.

Modi’s arrival comes at a time of heightened diplomatic activity over the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Unlike the G7, Modi did not attend the conference on Ukraine in Switzerland on 15-16 June.

India was represented there by former ambassador to Moscow and deputy foreign minister Pawan Kapoor. Kapoor did not sign the final communiqué; according to the deputy minister, a solution required contact between the two sides, and Russia was not invited to the summit.

Sotnikov suggested that Modi’s visit to Moscow could be linked to shuttle diplomacy on Ukraine, noting that New Delhi could potentially take over the role of mediator from China. “Delhi can present itself as a platform and a mediator, as it has good relations with Moscow, Kyiv, the US and the EU,” the expert added.

But Moscow and India are primarily interested in bilateral economic relations; trade turnover between them continues to grow: It reached $17.5 billion in the first quarter of 2024, which is a quarterly record.

While the volume of trade will reach $65 billion in 2023, 1.8 times higher than in 2022, there is a serious imbalance in bilateral trade to Russia’s detriment.

“So the focus will be on balancing the trade deficit and finding mechanisms to avoid secondary Western sanctions on business, which India will have to do, especially after the EU imposed restrictions on Russia’s financial communications system in June that could be adopted by other countries, including the US,” Volkhonsky said.

Diplomacy

Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour

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Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.

As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.

The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.

Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.

In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.

Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”

US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”

On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.

According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.

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Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions

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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.

According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.

Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.

The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.

Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.

He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.

Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.

Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.

The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.

On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.

In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.

In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.

The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.

Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.

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Diplomacy

Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.

In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.

“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”

Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.

He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.

Washington pledges to maintain defence support

Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.

“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.

Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.

“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.

Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks

In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.

He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.

Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”

Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.

The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.

In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.

The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.

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