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Indian PM Modi meets Putin in Moscow for first time in five years

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Moscow on the afternoon of 8 July for a two-day official visit to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

This is Modi’s first visit to Russia since 2019 and his first meeting with Putin in two years, the last being at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand in September 2022.

The main talks are scheduled to take place today in an expanded and narrow format. This is Modi’s second visit after attending the G7 summit in Italy, a week after his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the elections.

The prime minister has also begun his third term in office since 2014. Putin’s meeting with Modi is also his first since the end of the election period in Russia.

Modi landed at the Vnukovo-1 government terminal at around 14:00 Moscow time yesterday, where he was greeted by First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov.

At 7.54pm Moscow time, the Kremlin said on its Telegram channel that an informal meeting between the two leaders had begun in Novo-Ogaryovo.

“You have your own ideas, you are an energetic person, you are able to achieve results in the interests of India,” Putin said at the start of the meeting, congratulating Modi on his re-election. Putin added that he intended to discuss the same issues with his guest in a “local atmosphere” as at the official meeting on 9 July.

The Indian prime minister’s account on social network X published a Russian-language post shortly after his arrival:

“We look forward to further deepening the special and privileged strategic partnership between our countries, especially in the areas of future cooperation.”

Bloomberg quoted sources as saying that the two sides could sign an agreement on the long-term supply of nuclear fuel from Russia.

The second phase of the Kudankulam nuclear power plant is being built with the help of Russia’s Federal Atomic Energy Corporation Rosatom and will be India’s largest, expanding from the current two units to six.

Rosatom director general Alexei Likhachev said in May that the plant would switch to ‘innovative’ fuel in the summer.

A year ago, India led the G20 and hosted the group’s summit in New Delhi, presenting itself as the leader of the global south.

At the time, Modi also pledged to make India the world’s third largest economy. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country ranks fifth in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and third in purchasing power parity behind China and the United States.

Vladimir Sotnikov, a leading researcher at the Institute of China and Modern Asia at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti that Indians believe Modi’s activities in the West will allow them to strengthen their role as a leader of the South and secure a permanent seat on the UN Security Council:

“Delhi’s ambitions coincide with Moscow’s interests; the two countries are not enemies and share an approach to building a new global order.”

Boris Volkhonsky, associate professor at the Lomonosov Institute of Asian and African Countries at Moscow State University, said Modi’s visit was a symbolic gesture that India would not join anti-Russian coalitions around the world.

Modi’s arrival comes at a time of heightened diplomatic activity over the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Unlike the G7, Modi did not attend the conference on Ukraine in Switzerland on 15-16 June.

India was represented there by former ambassador to Moscow and deputy foreign minister Pawan Kapoor. Kapoor did not sign the final communiqué; according to the deputy minister, a solution required contact between the two sides, and Russia was not invited to the summit.

Sotnikov suggested that Modi’s visit to Moscow could be linked to shuttle diplomacy on Ukraine, noting that New Delhi could potentially take over the role of mediator from China. “Delhi can present itself as a platform and a mediator, as it has good relations with Moscow, Kyiv, the US and the EU,” the expert added.

But Moscow and India are primarily interested in bilateral economic relations; trade turnover between them continues to grow: It reached $17.5 billion in the first quarter of 2024, which is a quarterly record.

While the volume of trade will reach $65 billion in 2023, 1.8 times higher than in 2022, there is a serious imbalance in bilateral trade to Russia’s detriment.

“So the focus will be on balancing the trade deficit and finding mechanisms to avoid secondary Western sanctions on business, which India will have to do, especially after the EU imposed restrictions on Russia’s financial communications system in June that could be adopted by other countries, including the US,” Volkhonsky said.

DIPLOMACY

China pledges $50bn in aid as it opens markets to Africa

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Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday pledged 360 billion yuan ($50 billion) in financial aid to African countries over the next three years. In addition, Beijing will open its markets to 33 least developed countries in Africa, which will have access to all Chinese products at zero tariffs.

Speaking at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing, Xi made a series of commitments covering trade, industrial supply chains, infrastructure connectivity, health, people-to-people exchanges and security.

Leaders and representatives from more than 50 African countries are attending the forum, which has been described as Beijing’s biggest diplomatic event in recent years and is held every three years.

Leaders will discuss infrastructure projects, climate change, the new energy economy, security and peace, and Africa’s credit problems.

“After nearly 70 years of hard work, China-Africa relations are now enjoying the best period in history,” Xi said in his opening speech to delegations from more than 50 African countries attending the meeting, which has been held every three years since 2000 and alternates between China and an African host.

With the African Union’s Agenda 2063 development plan reflecting China’s long-term development path, Xi said the two sides’ approach “will definitely lead the modernisation trend in the global south”.

Of the 360 billion yuan in financing, 210 billion yuan will be in the form of loans, while the rest will be provided through various forms of assistance, including 70 billion yuan to promote investment by Chinese companies in Africa. This lending, which will average around $10 billion per year over the next three years, is similar to the annual commitments made under the Belt and Road Initiative nearly a decade ago.

According to a recent study by the Center for Global Development Policy at Boston University, Chinese lenders will provide $4.61 billion in loans to eight African countries in 2023.

China’s financial offers are welcome, as many underdeveloped countries in Africa need financing and investment to achieve their development goals, but there may be some challenges, experts say.

A lack of regulatory capacity on the African side could make it difficult to engage effectively with these actors, especially if there is a lack of coordination.

On Thursday, Xi also pledged to help African countries issue yuan-denominated bonds to boost bilateral cooperation.

In addition to loans, Xi said China would provide Africa with 1 billion yuan worth of free aid to train 6,000 military personnel and 1,000 police officers as part of Beijing’s Global Security Initiative, which includes joint military exercises.

“China is willing to help Africa improve its capacity to independently maintain peace and stability,” Xi said, adding that Africa is experiencing a ‘new dawn’ and making ‘steady progress’ on the road to modernisation.

China will offer 33 underdeveloped African countries greater market access by eliminating tariffs on unspecified products.

Other forms of assistance include the construction of vocational training facilities for 60,000 students, 30 infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative to improve land and sea connectivity, 1 billion yuan in emergency food aid, and support for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises.

China has also announced that it will help train African officials to improve governance. Beijing will set up 25 African research centres and invite 1,000 African officials and politicians to China to learn about modern governance.

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Kremlin: We will consider Turkey’s application for BRICS membership

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Russian Vice President Yury Ushakov told reporters that BRICS countries will consider Turkey’s application for full membership in the grouping.

“Turkey has applied for full membership. We will evaluate it,” he said.

The day before, Bloomberg reported that Ankara had applied for BRICS membership several months ago.

According to the agency, the issue of expanding the grouping could be discussed at the BRICS summit in Kazan on 22-24 October, to which Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been invited.

AK Party spokesman Omer Celik said on Sunday that Erdogan had repeatedly expressed interest in joining BRICS, but that no concrete decision had been taken on Ankara’s membership.

BRICS currently consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The group aims to foster economic cooperation among its members and promote a multipolar world order.

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The first in 12 years: Egyptian President Sisi in Ankara

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President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan welcomed Egyptian President Abdelfattah al-Sisi, who arrived in Ankara for an official visit. This is the first Egyptian presidential visit to Türkiye in 12 years.

The plane that brought Sisi and his accompanying delegation to Ankara landed at Esenboğa Airport.

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Ankara Governor Vasip Şahin and other officials accompanied President Erdoğan at the official welcoming ceremony.

After meeting for a while at the Hall of Honour at Esenboğa Airport, Erdoğan and Sisi drove to the Presidential Complex in the same executive car.

Following the bilateral meeting, President Erdoğan and Egyptian President Sisi will attend the meeting of the High Level Strategic Cooperation Council. A signing ceremony of agreements and a joint press conference will be held with the participation of the two leaders.

This will be the first meeting of the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council, restructured under the Joint Declaration signed during President Erdoğan’s visit to Cairo on 14 February. The meeting will be attended by ministers from both countries.

It is stated that the Council meeting will review all aspects of Türkiye-Egypt relations and discuss the joint steps that can be taken in the coming period to further develop bilateral cooperation.

In addition, a number of documents are expected to be signed to strengthen relations, as well as agreements in the fields of finance, energy, urbanisation and health.

Israel’s attacks on Gaza and peace efforts will also be on the table during the talks.

President Erdoğan will host an official dinner in Sisi’s honour.

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