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Belarusian influence on the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war

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Alexander Lukashenko, dubbed Europe’s last dictator, has been in power in Belarus for almost 30 years. Lukashenko, who came to power in Belarus in the 1994 elections, was elected for the fifth time in 2020. The Lukashenko government in Belarus has good relations with the Russian Federation rather than Europe. In geopolitical terms, this creates the profile of a country that is in Europe but maintains Soviet ties in its relations with Russia.

This should not come as a surprise, as there is a certain space that Russia provides for Belarus. Russia is also the main supporter of Lukashenko, who has been in power since the 1994 elections. In this context, it is inevitable that the more Europe’s ties with Russia weaken, the more pro-Russian Belarus will become. This was also the case during the Russian-Ukrainian war. In the aftermath of the Western sanctions against Russia, Russia’s attempt to expand its economic relations with Belarus in alternative areas was reflected in the growing strategic partnership and economic relations with Belarus. Of course, the deployment of troops and the supply of ammunition to Belarus should also be taken into account. But could these good relations between the two countries lead to Belarus’ involvement in the Ukrainian war? The importance of Belarus for Russia in the Ukrainian war is that it acts as a bridgehead. But is Belarus’ approach to the Ukrainian war at the expected level?

Belarusian influence in the Ukrainian war

The relations between Belarus and Russia are explained on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus with an emphasis on geography as well as “close historical and cultural ties between the peoples”[1]. Of course, Russia’s Tsarist period and the subsequent history of the region as an important part of Russian history is important, but after the disintegration of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in 1991, we do not see a Europe-oriented Belarus like the Baltic states. In this context, Russia is Belarus’ biggest supporter and strategic partner. Indeed, Belarus’ economic relations with Russia, which account for half of its foreign trade, have grown despite the Russian-Ukrainian war. In 2022, two-way trade between the two countries increased by around 15 per cent. Relations with Ukraine, on the other hand, have stagnated, especially in economic terms. From $6.9 billion in 2021, economic relations fell to $1.6 billion in 2022 and $13.8 million in the first seven months of 2023[2].

Belarus’ policy has become important, especially in the context of the “special military operation” launched by Russia in Ukraine in February 2022. As part of this process, Lukashenko welcomed thousands of Russian soldiers into his country. He even acted as a mediator between the Wagner leader Evgeny Prigozhin and Russian President Vladimir Putin, especially when the Wagner Uprising of 2023 is remembered. As a result, Wagner soldiers were stationed on Belarusian territory. In addition, from 2023, some of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons were also deployed on Belarusian territory. After this move, Putin declared that it was “a reminder to those who think of inflicting a strategic defeat”[3] on Russia. It should not be forgotten, however, that Belarus did not take a direct part in the conflict. It continues to play an instrumental role in the region through its alliance with Russia as a deterrent.

In addition to being an important ally for Russia, Belarus is also seen as an important instrument of hybrid warfare in foreign policy, especially in its relations with Europe. This is not a new situation. Russia and Belarus have previously pursued policies such as reducing energy supplies, repairing pipelines to Europe, etc. during periods of problems in relations with Europe. In this respect, the relations between the two countries also reflect their common policy of deterrence.

On the other hand, there are dissenting voices in Belarus regarding the war with Ukraine. The fact that Belarus shares a 1,000-kilometre border with Ukraine makes it necessary to consider the dimension of relations. The reason for this should be seen in the context of Ukraine’s invasion of Russian territory with a sudden attack on 6 August and the opening of the Kursk front. The war that has been going on in Ukraine for almost three years has now expanded with the opening of a new front on Russian territory. The possibility of Belarus being the next stage should also be considered. Zelenski’s decision to go to Kursk was reportedly motivated by dwindling support from the EU and the US and the aim of strengthening his hand against Russia. But it is also a reflection of the territorial scope of the spreading war. In other words, with Ukraine’s problems in the ongoing war on its own territory, Russia is now experiencing the war on its own territory. Therefore, new fronts may bring new problems and new instrumentalisations.

Cracks in Belarus’s support for Russia?

The influence of Belarus should be reconsidered at this point. This is due to the growing fear of war in Belarus, as reported by PBS[4] in 2023. It is known that Russia has been sending arms and ammunition to Belarus, but the rhetoric of tactical nuclear war has been in the background. However, the possibility has also been raised that the Belarusian army of some 45,000 soldiers would disobey orders if sent into Ukraine. Indeed, according to a Chatham House poll in 2022, 25% of Belarusians supported Russia’s actions, while 97% of respondents opposed the deployment of Belarusian troops[5], indicating that public and government support in Belarus are at very different poles. On the other hand, it should not be forgotten that Lukashenko has not yet taken any direct aggressive steps.

During the war, Ukraine did not take any direct steps against violations by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on Belarusian territory. Similarly, Belarus has begun to deploy mines and troops on the Ukrainian border in response to possible threats. As I mentioned earlier, this indicates that they are also considering the possibility of targeting Belarusian territory as a new front.

Indeed, the Kursk front changed the course of the Ukrainian-Russian war. For Belarus, there is a war going on right next door that requires constant vigilance. That is why Lukashenko has warned that this war could escalate into World War III as a result of developments in the Kursk region. He has also called on Russia and Ukraine to begin peace negotiations. Although it is not clear whether these calls will be heeded in the near future, the possibility of opening new fronts and a nuclear threat should not be forgotten behind Belarus’s calls for restraint. Although Russia may deploy tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory or use them in case of danger in the context of its own nuclear doctrine, the reality of a possible nuclear threat from two nuclear power plants (Kursk and Zaparoye) should not be forgotten.

* Assoc. Prof. Dr. Merve Suna Özel Özcan, Kırıkkale University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of International Relations. e-mail: mervesuna@kku.edu.tr

[1]https://www.mfa.gov.by/en/bilateral/russia/#:~:text=Traditionally%2C%20Russia%20is%20both%20our,of%20the%20Republic%20of%20Belarus.

[2] https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraine-belarus-relations-context-russo-ukrainian-war

[3] https://www.bbc.com/turkce/articles/cn42re7ldeeo

[4] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/belarusians-wary-of-being-drawn-into-russias-war-in-ukraine

[5] https://en.belaruspolls.org/wave-11

OPINION

“Da Tong” and “Ubuntu”: A community of Shared Future for China and Africa

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Yi Shaoxuan, Research Assistant
Center for Turkish Studies, Shanghai University

From September 4 to 6, 2024, the Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) was held in Beijing. Heads of State and Government from China and 53 African countries attended the summit. After the summit, the two sides jointly issued statements and initiatives such as “Beijing declaration on jointly building an all-weather China-Africa community with a shared future for the new era”, “Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027)”, “The China-Africa Joint Statement on Deepening Cooperation within the Framework of the Global Development Initiative (GDI)” and the “Ten Partnership Actions for Modernization”. Such documents are striving to make FOCAC a highly effective platform for South-South cooperation and a well-established brand for leading international cooperation with Africa. It can be said that the summit is of great significance not only to Africa’s own development, but also to the overall rise of the global South and the building of a fair and just new global economic and political order.

More importantly, at this summit, the ancient philosophical wisdom of the Chinese people and the African people—— “Da Tong” and “Ubuntu” ——resonate with each other, once again demonstrating to the world the unity of 2.8 billion people in China and Africa. “Da Tong” is short of “Tian Xia Da Tong”. It comes from The Book of Rites, a book with more than 2000 years of history. The concept “Da Tong” means all people under the heaven are of one family and all nations should live in harmony. The term “Ubuntu” originates from the language spoken by the Zulu people in South Africa, but represents the worldview or philosophical thinking of the whole of sub-Saharan Africa. Kenyan philosopher John Mbiti summarized it as “Because We are, therefore, I am”. Ubuntu philosophy emphasize that the individual can not exist independently of others, thus attach great significance to harmony. This coincides with the concept of “Da Tong” in traditional Chinese Confucianism, and the profound meaning contained therein is in stark contrast to Western individualism.

What is the impact of the summit on China and Africa?

For China, the cooperation with African countries opens a new chapter of the Belt and Road Initiative in the post-epidemic era.

In terms of international influence, the China-Africa cooperation event has become a model of “South-South cooperation” and strengthened the solidarity of developing countries. As the only developing country among the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, China has shouldered the responsibility of being the voice of the global South. The fact that 53 of the 54 AU member states attended the summit also demonstrates China’s power to appeal.

In terms of economic and trade, China has found a new outlet and raw material for its clean energy. In recent years, Western governments, especially Biden administration have imposed high tariffs and thresholds on China’s electric vehicles and solar energy products, and have constructed concepts such as “overproduction” to drive out China’s related industries. Taking solar panels as an example, Chinese national brands, such as “CATL” , together occupy about 80% of the global supply chain with good quality and low price. Therefore, this kind of malicious barriers to China’s clean energy industry is not a small blow. What’s more, Chinese companies have cobalt, lithium and other raw material projects or hold stakes in mining companies in quite a few African countries, with Chinese companies investing $7.8 billion in African minerals in 2023 alone. Those investments is intended to feed its green industries, especially electric vehicle industry. “Ten Partnership Actions for Modernization” mentioned that China supports Africa to improve climate resilience, provide new energy technologies and products, implement 30 clean energy and green development projects, and set up China-Africa green industry chain special funds. This thriving market in Africa will give new impetus to China’s new energy industry.

In terms of mutual understanding of civilizations, this summit has promoted the friendship between China and Africa, confirming the path of “people-to-people bond” under the Belt and Road Initiative. China does not have the burden of colonial aggression on Africa, but shares the deep comradeship of common struggle. Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized in his reply to a reporter’s question during the summit that “China-Africa friendship was forged in the struggle for national independence and liberation of the two sides, and has been strengthened in the cause of common development and revitalization”. It was a large number of African countries that staunchly safeguarded China’s interests in the international arena and voted in favor of restoring China’s legitimate rights and interests in the General Assembly at the 26th session of the United Nations General Assembly in 1971. Chairman Mao summed it up when he said, “It was the African brothers who carried China into the United Nations”. Nowadays, China chooses Africa for assistance and investment, it carries a good friendship that spans many years.

For African countries, this meeting and its outcome are also a source of satisfaction. In terms of international standing, the people of the world’s two most populous continents have met again, proclaiming to the world the unity and friendship of the countries of the South. A nationally liberated Africa is no longer at the mercy of colonizers, but is actively fighting for its political and economic interests and making its voice heard on the world stage.

In terms of trade dealings, China has provided 360 billion yuan (more than 50 billion U.S. dollars) in aid to Africa, is expected to create one million jobs. China has promised to deepen cooperation between the two sides in the fields of industry, agriculture, trade, and infrastructure. In the context of the weak global economy after the epidemic, the conclusion of these cooperation comes just in time African countries. Around 2030, a part of the African countries will face the pressure of debt repayment years, so the stimulation of emerging investment may be able to alleviate part of the burden.

Finally, in the mingling of African culture Chinese culture, the two peoples deepen their friendship. As mentioned above, the resonance between the Ubuntu ideology and Chinese Confucianism’s “Da Tong” not only allows both sides to have a tacit understanding due to similar cultural backgrounds, but also deepens the sense of identity and pride in their own cultural genes.

What is the impact of the Summit on the Global South?

First, the Summit is an important part of the global activities of the countries of the Global South. 2024 saw the release of the Global Presence Index by the Royal Institute of Elcano, Spain, in which the key measure is the influence of countries in the economic, military, scientific, social and cultural spheres. The data show that the overall level of global presence in the Global South has continued to grow, and that the difference in global presence between the North and the South has decreased. International events such as the Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) have broadened the influence and appeal of the South in the international arena.

Second, the Summit demonstrated that there is more than one Western model of modernization for the global South. The “Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027)” proposes that the two sides will jointly explore modernization for peaceful development, mutually beneficial cooperation and common prosperity on the basis of the development and revitalization of their respective countries. Among the initiatives to modernize the main social sector with Chinese characteristics, the fight against poverty is a typical case. China has lifted nearly 100 million of its own people out of poverty in just a decade. According to the latest figures from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), about 733 million people still suffer from hunger in 2023, with a significant portion in Africa. China has very valuable experience in using agricultural development as an effective way to eradicate poverty. Sharing China’s agricultural development path is of great significance to Africa, where small farmers are the mainstay. The summit document also pointed out that the two sides will build a China-Africa agricultural science and technology innovation alliance, create 100 demonstration villages for poverty reduction in agriculture, send 500 agricultural experts to African countries, train 1,000 agricultural wealth leaders, and push forward the construction and development of the China-Africa Mycorrhiza Cooperation Center and the China-Africa Bamboo Center. UN Secretary General Guterres has also expressed his appreciation for China-Africa cooperation in poverty reduction. Compared with the industrialization and big machine production in the West, perhaps this agriculture-led modernization model is more adapted to African soil.

Once again, the summit demonstrated the strong desire of the countries of the South to pursue development. Development is an important right shared by all countries in the world, and in 2010, then U.S. President Barack Obama was overheard saying in an interview with Australian media: “If over a billion Chinese citizens have the same living pattern as Australians and Americans do right now, then all of us are going through a very miserable time, the planet just can’t sustain it”. Although Obama was discussing energy saving and emission reduction in developing countries, this subconscious expression implicitly implies an arrogance that people in vast non-Western regions should not have the kind of affluence that the Americans and Australians have. Times have changed, and nowadays emerging countries are not only seeking to be “Not hungry”, but also to be “well-fed”. For example, the summit document mentions the “Development Partnership Initiative”: China and Africa will jointly build a global network of development promotion centers and assist in the implementation of 1,000 “small but beautiful” livelihood projects; The Chinese government will donate $50 million to renew the China-World Bank Group Partnership Fund, focusing on supporting African countries to realize inclusive and sustainable development. Many of the projects agreed upon at the Summit are livelihood projects that benefit the grassroots, which is a reflection of the people of developing countries’ pursuit of happiness and development.

Finally, the beautiful atmosphere demonstrated by the summit reveals that the main theme of the world’s future development is not “small yard, high fence” and mutual aggression, but a community of shared future with equality and mutual benefit. Back in 2000, the Economist magazine of the UK published a cover article entitled “Hopeless Africa”, describing it as the “Hopeless Continent” . But it was also in that year that the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation was established. Reciprocal win-win and mutual cooperation among countries of the South like between China and Africa has become a fashionable trend. Emerging countries such as India and Türkiye have also attempted to establish broader cooperation with Africa, and cooperation within the countries of the South has come to be more friendly, more egalitarian, and less burdensome.

The “Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027)” reads, “China will not interfere in African countries’ internal affairs; China will not impose its will on African countries; China will not attach political strings to assistance to Africa; and China will not seek unilateral political gains in investment and financing cooperation with Africa. The two sides will always uphold the spirit of China-Africa friendship and cooperation, and foster an even stronger comprehensive strategic and cooperative partnership between China and Africa.” These references are in fact in the same vein as the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence and the Bandung Spirit. The Bandung Conference was the first major international conference to discuss the vital interests of the peoples of Asia and Africa without the participation of colonial powers. Next year will mark the 70th anniversary of the Bandung Conference. The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation is not only a continuation of the spirit of the Bandung Conference, but is also expected to become a new brand of “South-South cooperation” as well known as the Bandung Conference.

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Israel has reached a ‘strategic crossroads’

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On 11 September, the Pentagon announced the return of the aircraft carrier USS Roosevelt, signalling the end of the US operation to keep two groups of warships in the Middle East and signalling an easing of the situation in the Middle East. On the same day, Israel offered Yahya Sinwar, leader of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), to leave the Gaza Strip with his family in order to reach a ceasefire agreement, signalling that Israel was considering ending the siege of Gaza. However, it is unclear whether Netanyahu’s right-wing government will move from one battlefield to another, ending its offensive in Gaza in the south and turning north towards Lebanon.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has entered its 12th month and there are no winners. The biggest losers are, of course, the Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip, ‘hell on earth’ and ‘the biggest open-air prison’, where more than 41,000 people, mostly civilians, half of them women and children, have lost their lives. The humanitarian crisis, in which dozens or even hundreds of Gazan civilians die every day as a result of various Israeli attacks or bombardments, has turned the suffering of 2.3 million Palestinians into hell. However, the third ‘national catastrophe’ since 1948, and the highest cost of living in 76 years, has not led to an end to Israel’s illegal occupation, and the six Arab states and the Palestine Liberation Organisation that have normalised relations with Israel have not returned to the principle of ‘peace in exchange for land’ – the peace price paid has not returned the occupied territories.

Israel’s overwhelming superiority over the Palestinians is by no means a victory: the country has been plunged into a rare state of war, foreign investment has been withdrawn, flights have been disrupted, credit ratings have been downgraded, the international image has been shattered and internal contradictions have come to the fore, with political elites blaming each other. Israel, the world’s military power, lost at least 500 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, at least 670 soldiers were killed in action, 11. 000 soldiers in need of psychiatric treatment, atrocities committed by soldiers who cannot control their behaviour or violate the laws of war or humanity continue to come to light, the entire Israeli army is depleted as a result of ongoing military operations, there is a clear shortage of soldiers and religious students have been forced to enlist, and delays in reaching a ceasefire have led to a situation where 251 people who lost their freedom at the outbreak of the conflict were forced to join the Israeli armed forces. The delay in reaching a ceasefire, which led to the deaths of 251 detainees who had lost their freedom at the outbreak of hostilities, triggered waves of protests and demonstrations in Israel.

Israel’s biggest problem is that it faces condemnation, accusations and prosecution for ‘ethnic cleansing’ and ‘war crimes’ and even ‘crimes against humanity’ for exceeding its right to self-defence and using excessive force. It has also stirred up a hornet’s nest of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to a number of State and non-State actors joining forces to directly or indirectly engage in conflict with Israel in support of Palestine, notably Iran and Syria and four major factions forming a coalition between hard-line forces, including the Palestinian Hamas, the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces, the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces, the Yemeni Houthi forces and the Palestinian National Liberation Front. The formation of an ‘axis of resistance’ by Iran and Syria, together with four major groups (Hamas and other Palestinian hardliners, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the ‘Popular Mobilisation Forces’ in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen), plunged Israel into its greatest security dilemma since the Fifth Middle East War in 1982, and even into the unconventional mode of the Sixth Middle East War, in which it had to fight on five or six fronts in three directions: south, north and east. Even the natural barrier of the Mediterranean Sea in the west is no longer a reliable security depth for Israel and it is forced to rely on the naval and air forces of the United States and other Western allies for collective defence.

Netanyahu can’t think with certainty about putting the brakes on the Gaza war because he has to please his far-right party members, otherwise his weak coalition government would collapse. Moreover, by maximising the consequences of the war, he is trying to alleviate his political, legal and security responsibilities for the great ‘national catastrophe’ and ‘national shame’ that has been dubbed ‘Israel’s 911’. But the war cannot go on forever; Israel must be a country with an army, not just an army in the name of the country. Netanyahu and his government, on the brink of a major struggle for the fate of the country and his personal future, are really at a ‘strategic crossroads’: to continue or to end? If he continues the war, will he end the Gaza war and start the third Lebanon war? This is because Israel is constantly exposed to Hezbollah attacks, which are increasing in intensity.

In recent days, senior Israeli officials have signalled an end to the Gaza war. On 9 November, Defence Minister Galant said that after 11 months of liquidation, Hamas’ “military organisation” in Gaza no longer existed and that conditions were ripe for a temporary ceasefire, but that the window had closed. Earlier, the Israeli military said it had essentially eliminated some 20,000 Hamas militants and ‘targeted’ a number of Hamas leaders, including the deliberate choice of the Iranian capital Tehran to get rid of Ismail Haniyeh. Objectively speaking, Hamas has indeed suffered a major disaster and is now forced to resort to guerrilla warfare.

Over the past few months, accusations from US political and military circles about the escalation and expansion of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and war have become more and more explicit and focused on Netanyahu, in particular his continued obstruction and sabotage of the ceasefire negotiations and his proposal to take control of the Philadelphia Corridor between Gaza and Egypt and the ‘Nechalim Corridor’ separating the north and south of Gaza, which is the only way for the US military and political establishment to control the ceasefire talks and ceasefire negotiations. The question is whether such accusations and pressure should be made public. The Israeli negotiating team also warned Netanyahu that he could ‘destroy the agreement and thus bring about the end of the hostages’.

Netanyahu’s first and public demand for war on Gaza was clearly an impossible task: ‘de-Hamasisation, de-militarisation and de-radicalisation’. The so-called ‘trinity’ is not water without a source or a tree without roots, but a national liberation movement based on the long-standing illegal Israeli occupation, blended with Palestinian national hatred, legitimate rejection and even violent resistance. Unless the Palestinians are killed and expelled and the occupied territories are zeroed out or ‘Israelised’, Israel, like Sisyphus, will push the huge rolling stone of occupation up and down the mountainside, up and down, and the cycle will repeat itself, generation after generation paying an infinite price for expansion and occupation.

Netanyahu and many Israeli leaders know what the problem is, but due to a lack of strategic courage and historical responsibility, they do not act to end the illegal occupation and end the suffering and great evil it inflicts on Palestine, Lebanon, Syria and their peoples. Instead, by focusing on realistic short-term gains and the status quo, they seek to legitimise the occupation and, over time, to make it permanent. Through illegal occupation, social Darwinism and the application of the law of the jungle, they seek to create a fait accompli and, ultimately, to make themselves the rightful owners by permanently plundering the land of others.

After King David captured the capital of the Jebusites some 3,000 years ago, the Israelites renamed it Jerusalem and described it as the nation’s ancient capital and spiritual home forever, making no mention of the previous 1,000 to 2,000 years of the Jebusites’ founding history and ignoring a series of indelible facts of history: Some 2,000 years after the Romans destroyed the Jewish Temple and expelled the Israelites in 135 AD, Israel is no longer the dominant indigenous people of Palestine; since 638 AD, when the expeditionary forces of Omar, the second caliph of the Arab empire, captured Jerusalem from Eastern Rome, Jerusalem has been controlled and ruled by Palestinian Arabs or Muslims throughout its long 1329-year history, except for the Christian crusaders of the 11th-12th centuries, who controlled it for nearly a hundred years, until it was captured from the Jordanians by Israel in 1967.

The root causes of this widespread outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict are Israel’s unending occupation and ‘de-Palestinianisation’, the continued blockade of the Gaza Strip with the connivance of the bipartisan US government, the continued encroachment on Palestinian lands in the West Bank, and even the intensification of its claim to the Al-Aqsa Mosque in East Jerusalem. The rise of the ‘axis of resistance’ and the multiple attacks on Israel are also a consequence of the Gaza conflict and the suffering of the Palestinian people.

It is clear that the logical choice is to address the symptoms and root causes or to stop the boil or put out the fire. The only way out of Israel’s national crisis is to end the military siege of Gaza as soon as possible so that the attacks of the ‘axis of resistance’ will stop. However, if a long-term solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is to be found and if Israel’s peace, security, development and prosperity are to be maintained, the principle of ‘land for peace’ must be applied without compromise and the issue of the return of the occupied Arab territories must be resolved as a single package, including the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and East Jerusalem, as well as the Syrian and Lebanese Golan Heights. This includes the Syrian and Lebanese Golan Heights.

If the Israeli government, headed by Netanyahu, launches a large-scale invasion of the north and a new war in Lebanon for its own selfish purposes, Israel will be plunged into a catastrophe of unspeakable proportions and it will be difficult for the current government to give an honourable account to the history of the country and the nation.

*Prof. Ma, Dean of the Institute of Studies for the Mediterranean Rim (ISMR ), Zhejiang International Studies University (Hangzhou). He knows the world affairs well, especially the Islamic and Middle East politics. He has worked for many years as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine and Iraq.

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The secret of lasting friendship and co-operation between Africa and China

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The three-day “The 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC)” ended on 6 September in Beijing. China and the leaders of 53 African countries and the African Union jointly released two important documents, the ‘Beijing Declaration on Jointly Building an All-Weather China-Africa Community with a Shared Future for the New Era’ and the ‘Beijing Declaration and Action Plan for strengthening China-Africa cooperation (2025-2027)’. These two documents brought an excellent end to the summit themed ‘Joining Hands to Advance Modernization and Build a High-Level China-Africa Community with a Shared Future’.

This summit is of great significance and attracts the world’s attention as it is the largest major diplomatic event organised by China in recent years with the largest number of foreign leaders attending, the fourth summit in 24 years since the establishment of the FOCAC and the third summit held in Beijing, as well as the first time in six years that more than 50 China-Africa leaders and 400 China-Africa entrepreneurs have gathered in Beijing.

The summit also marks the 70th anniversary of China’s formulation of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, the 60th anniversary of Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai’s first visit to Africa and his proposal of the Eight Principles of Foreign Aid, the 50th anniversary of President Mao Zedong’s formulation of the ‘Three Worlds’ theory, and at the critical stage of serious changes in the world landscape, the impasse in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the prolongation of the China-US game, the general depression of the global economy, and the collective awakening and rise of the Global South. Therefore, it is certainly an important global event and a turning point that the bilateral leaders of China, the world’s largest developing country, and Africa, the continent with the largest concentration of developing countries, once again come face to face and jointly discuss the development and progress of 2.8 billion people in China and Africa and one-third of the world’s population.

During the summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China has upgraded its diplomatic relations with all African countries to the level of strategic relations and upgraded the overall description of China-Africa relations to ‘China-Africa Partnership with a Shared Future for the New Era’. Xi Jinping stressed that China and Africa will jointly build modernisation with six key characteristics: ‘just and reasonable, open and profitable, people-oriented, multicultural, ecology-friendly and peaceful’, and announced the ‘Ten Major Partnership Actions’. These include civilisation exchange, trade development, industrial chain cooperation, connectivity, development cooperation, health, agriculture and welfare, cultural exchange, green development and security cooperation.

Xi Jinping announced that in the next three years, China will provide 360 billion RMB (about 50 billion US dollars) to support the ‘Ten Major Partnership Actions’ and provide food aid and zero taxation to African countries, implement 30 infrastructure connectivity projects, 1000 small but effective life projects and 500 public benefit projects. It also pledged to send 2000 medical personnel and 500 agricultural experts to Africa, create 60,000 training opportunities in China for African women and youth, and create 1 million jobs in Africa.

During the summit, the Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres, President Ghazouani of Mauritania, Head of the African Union, and President Macky Sall of Senegal, co-chairman of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, highly appreciated the development of China-Africa relations and emphasised the great changes that China’s ‘Belt and Road’ initiative has brought about in Africa. They also believed that the new definition of China-Africa relations and the ‘Ten Major Partnership Actions’ will lead the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation to a new stage.

The achievements made during the 24 years of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation have set a model in international relations, exemplifying win-win relations with mutual respect, mutual benefit and co-operation. These 24 years represent a quarter of a century of Africa’s self-development and united progress, regardless of periods of ‘despair’ and ‘Far East sick man’, and a historical period in which the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation has transformed from a ‘street gang meeting’ to a cornerstone of the Global South.

According to official data, in 24 years, China-Africa trade has increased nearly 26-fold to $282.1 billion. China’s investment in Africa has increased 80-fold to more than $40 billion. China has been Africa’s number one trading partner for 15 years, and its trade volume with almost half of African countries has increased by more than 10 per cent annually, with trade volume consistently breaking records. Over the past 10 years, Chinese companies have signed RMB 700 billion worth of contracted projects in Africa, achieving a turnover of RMB 400 billion, and investment co-operations have spread to many fields such as agriculture, processing, manufacturing, trade and logistics, with projects covering various fields such as transport, energy, electricity, housing and social services, promoting Africa’s economic and social development. China’s share of Africa’s debt is only one tenth.

More than half a century of Sino-African relations have achieved remarkable successes, although it has been quite a difficult journey, and the experiences need to be reviewed and summarised. Because this is a great story, a successful story and a unique example of China establishing friendly relations with a great continent. The 54 member countries of the African Union, except for Eswatini, all other African countries have diplomatic relations with China and maintain friendly relations. Almost all African country leaders visit Beijing regularly or irregularly, which is a major event in the history of international relations. It has become a standard pattern for the Chinese Foreign Minister to make his first visit to African countries every year, and Chinese President Xi Jinping has visited Africa five times, showing China’s deep interest in Africa.

The successful development and stability of China-Africa relations confirm the four general rules of country relations, and can even be regarded as a new textbook model of country relations to correct, supplement or overthrow the traditional international relations theories, experiences and practices of Western countries.

First, same or smilar historical experiences build empathy and loyalty. China and African countries, colonised and occupied by Western powers and having lived the lesson that ‘to be left behind is to be beaten’, are clear against foreign intervention.

Second, same or smilar political goals ensure cohesion and support. China and African countries seek independence, autonomy and empowerment and work towards the goals of development, prosperity and comprehensive modernisation.

Third, same or smilar understanding of relations strengthens common values. China and African countries value friendship and trustworthiness, believe in the principle of ‘going fast alone, going long together’, and adhere to the principles of mutual assistance and mutual benefit.

Fourth, same or smilar development conditions bring a common future and long-term commitment. China and African countries used to be economically backward, poor in basic infrastructure and backward in education and training. However, they both agree that ‘development is a difficult path’ and ‘people’s well-being is the greatest human right’ and respect their chosen development paths.

The successful and remarkable development of China-Africa relations also embodies the unique charm and exemplary significance of contemporary Chinese diplomacy, a Chinese experience and contribution that has evolved from diplomatic ideas and concepts to diplomatic principles and practices, and from these principles and practices to innovations in the theory and paradigm of international relations.

First of all, different civilisations and cultures can fully coexist and co-develop. China and Africa belong to different civilisations, but China has never used the differences between civilisations as a basis for judging friend and foe or for determining distance and proximity, and has emphasised the principles of ‘Each is beautiful in its own way, all people are beautiful; the beauty of people is beautiful in its own way, the whole world is the same’ and ‘Long live the unity of all the people of the world’. We resolutely oppose the theory of the clash of civilisations or the theory of the superiority of civilisations.

Secondly, even if we are thousands of kilometres away from each other, we can be as close as neighbours. Distance produces not only beauty, but also friendship and love. China’s traditional concepts of friendship such as ‘it is always a pleasure to make friends from afar’ and ‘all brothers and sisters in the four seas’ have ensured that China-Africa friendship transcends geography and space and remains constant.

Third, there are large and small countries that can get along with each other on an equal footing. Objectively speaking, China’s population, area and economic volume are indeed far beyond any African country, and even comparable to the entire African continent, but China has never practised jungle law and bullying policies, not to mention emphasising the so-called ‘power determines status’ distortion, on the contrary, in line with the principle of equality among countries regardless of their size, strength and weakness, wealth and poverty, we have made friends all over the world, including a large number of ‘big and small’ African countries. On the contrary, on the basis of the principle of equality between countries regardless of their size, strength, weakness, wealth and poverty, we have made friends all over the world, including many African countries that are ‘natural friends’.

Fourth, it is entirely possible for rich and poor to make progress together. In the half-century of China-Africa relations, especially in the quarter-century since the establishment of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), the world and Africa have witnessed China’s rapid transformation from standing still to prospering and then to strengthening, and China’s assistance to other developing countries in making progress. Moreover, China emphasises that it will always belong to developing countries and will always share the same destiny and make progress hand in hand with developing countries, including African countries, and countries of the global South.

The China-Africa Summit was once again triumphantly concluded in Beijing, but it is only a summit but not a climax. Because China-Africa friendship and co-operation is a journey, and it is a long walk with no end in sight. The result is not the best, it is only on the way to getting better and better.

*Prof. Ma, Dean of the Institute of Studies for the Mediterranean Rim (ISMR ), Zhejiang International Studies University (Hangzhou). He knows the world affairs well, especially the Islamic and Middle East politics. He has worked for many years as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine and Iraq.

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