Middle East
The architect of the generals’ plan: Surrender or starve
In the northern Gaza Strip, which has been besieged and heavily bombarded by Israel for 10 days, Israel is reportedly implementing the “Generals’ Plan,” though it has not officially announced this strategy. This plan envisions a division of Gaza into two parts.
The Israeli army has maintained a tight siege, with continued air and ground attacks on the Jibaliya refugee camp and the towns of Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanun. No aid, including medicine, is being allowed into the region, and Israel continues to bomb civilian areas, ignoring warnings from international organizations, including the United Nations, about a looming humanitarian catastrophe.
The UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) has announced that primary crossings into northern Gaza have been closed, with no food aid entering the region since October 1. Food distribution points, kitchens, and bakeries have shut down due to airstrikes and evacuation orders.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has also reported that health services in northern Gaza are almost non-existent.
The Arab League has described Israel’s actions in northern Gaza as “genocide” and condemned these actions.
The siege and intense attacks appear to follow the so-called “Generals’ Plan,” initially proposed by General Giora Eiland, a former head of the Israeli army’s operations department. This plan suggests indefinite Israeli control over northern Gaza and the establishment of a new administration free of Hamas.
While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formally stated last month that this plan was under consideration, no official decision has been made in parliament. The Israeli army denies its actions in northern Gaza are based on this plan, but the events of the past 10 days suggest that elements of it may be in effect.
General Eiland shared details of the plan with the Associated Press (AP). Under this strategy, Palestinians would have a week to leave a third of northern Gaza, including Gaza City, after which the area would be declared a closed military zone.
The plan includes a strict embargo on food, water, medicine, and fuel, and would label Palestinians who remain as “militants,” potentially justifying lethal force. The goal is to split Gaza and create a non-Hamas-controlled administration. Ultimately, Gaza would be divided into two separate areas.
When asked if the recent evacuation orders were part of this plan, Israeli military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani said, “No, we have not received any such plan.” However, an official familiar with the matter told AP that some parts of the plan are being implemented, without specifying which.
No trucks carrying food, water, or medicine have entered northern Gaza since September 30, according to the UN and the Israeli military authority overseeing humanitarian crossings.
Human rights groups argue that this plan would condemn civilians to starvation, violating international law prohibiting the use of food as a weapon and forced displacement. Accusations that Israel is deliberately restricting food access to Gaza are part of a genocide case against it at the International Court of Justice, which Israel denies.
Few Palestinians have complied with the latest evacuation order. Some residents are elderly or sick, while others fear there is nowhere safe to go, believing they may never be allowed to return. Israel has previously barred those who fled at the start of the war from returning.
“All Gazans fear this plan,” said Jomana Elkhalili, a 26-year-old Palestinian aid worker for Oxfam in Gaza.
“They’re not going to run. They won’t make that mistake again. People know it’s not safe,” she said, referring to conditions in southern Gaza, where people live in tent camps frequently targeted by airstrikes. “In the north, people feel it’s better to die than to leave.”
After Eiland presented the plan, officials from the prime minister’s office called him for further details. Eiland asserts that the only way to weaken Hamas is by denying it access to aid, forcing it to surrender or starve.
“That doesn’t mean killing everyone. People won’t be able to live there; the water will run out,” he said.
Tania Hary, executive director of Gisha, an Israeli human rights organization defending Palestinians’ right to move freely in Gaza, expressed deep concern over the implication that anyone failing to comply with evacuation orders could be considered “at war.”
A copy of the plan seen by AP suggests that if this strategy succeeds in northern Gaza, it could be extended to other areas in the south, including tent camps housing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians.
Middle East
US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt
The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.
The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.
Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.
Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.
A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.
Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.
A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”
This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.
An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”
The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”
“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.
The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.
The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.
A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.
In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”
The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.
The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.
Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.
Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.
In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.
Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.
This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.
Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.
Middle East
Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks
Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.
This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.
United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.
Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.
The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.
Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.
Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.
“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.
Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.
The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.
Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.
Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.
Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.
Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.
The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.
Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”
Middle East
Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.
Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.
Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.
The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.
The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”
Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.
Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.
Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.
Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”
Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.
According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:
“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”
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