Diplomacy
Aleppo’s echo in Europe
The offensive in Aleppo by the jihadist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the rapid retreat of the Syrian army are likely to have many consequences. Among them is the alignment of the “rebellious” countries within the EU.
The “rebellion” emerged last summer. Eight EU countries, led by Austria and Italy, sent a letter to EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell calling for a new chapter in relations with Syria.
Calling on the EU to “review and assess” its approach to Syria, they proposed the creation of an EU-Syria envoy tasked with re-establishing contact with the Syrian ambassador in Brussels and liaising with both Syrian and regional actors.
Other proposals included a strategic dialogue with Arab countries, developing the EU’s approach to Syria’s reconstruction, addressing the “unintended negative effects” of EU sanctions and creating conditions for refugees to return to Syria.
“After 13 years of war, we have to admit that our Syria policy has not improved much,” said Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg at the time.
The fact that Damascus had survived with the help of Iran and Russia and that the Syrian opposition had been dismembered or driven into exile, ‘no matter how painful’, could no longer be ignored by the European Union, the Austrian minister argued.
The new eight-nation peace initiative was based on the abandonment of the EU’s famous ‘three no’s’ and the red line of ‘no peace with the regime of Bashar al-Assad’.
Indeed, Italy decided last July to send an ambassador to Damascus, the first G7 country to do so in years.
In October, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told the Italian Senate that the EU should review its strategy on Syria and work with all stakeholders to create the conditions for the voluntary, safe and sustainable return of Syrian refugees to their homes.
Later in November, the Syrian consulate in Italy, which had suspended its activities in 2012 on the basis of ‘reciprocity’, announced the resumption of its services to Syrian nationals in the country.
In October, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer cited the 200,000 people who had crossed from Lebanon into Syria during the ongoing Israeli occupation and attacks as proof that Syria was safe, saying that ‘Syria is now certified as safe in many areas’.
Things went as expected. The EU announced that it would appoint a special envoy to evaluate its Syria policy. The head of the EU delegation to Syria, Michael Ohnmacht, had recently addressed the public in a video filmed in the capital, Damascus.
A spokesperson for the EU foreign ministry told DW that the appointment of a special envoy was being considered, but that it would not mean a change in the EU’s current policy towards Syria. The envoy would report directly to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW: “It has been clear for some time that Europe does not have a meaningful Syria strategy. We have fallen into the trap of saying that any engagement means legitimizing the regime, when in many ways it could be seen as a way to help improve the desperate situation on the ground,” Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Council on Foreign Relations, told DW.
Barnes-Dacey argued that if the EU continues to stay out of Syria altogether, it ‘cannot do much to help Syrians struggling to survive under the regime’s boot and cannot hope to compete with countries like Russia and Iran’.
By a strange coincidence, on 26 November, the day before the jihadist assault on Aleppo began, EUObserver published an article by Beder Camus. Mr Camus, who is based in Istanbul, is a member of the ‘opposition’ Syrian National Council and chairman of the Syrian Negotiations Commission.
In a direct appeal to EU countries calling for a change in Syria policy, he argued that without progress in implementing UN Security Council Resolution 2254 and without a political solution, any step towards normalisation with Damascus would ‘undermine the prospects for peace, stability and prosperity’.
“By all estimates, it is clear that Syria is not a safe place for refugees to return to,” the “opposition” leader wrote, adding that according to his own estimates, the Damascus regime currently controls “only about 50 per cent of Syria’s territory and population”, while a significant part of the country continues to suffer from ongoing violence and dire living conditions.
“There are many significant political risks in engaging with the Assad regime, not least that any investment and reconstruction will directly benefit the Assad regime and its network of corrupt officials, businessmen and military personnel,” Camus said.
The HTS attack certainly worked in Europe. After the fall of Aleppo, the country’s second largest city and commercial heartland, one would have expected a change in attitude towards the Assad regime, which controls most of Syria and has made it a safe country.
Cecilia Piccioni, Italy’s ambassador to Moscow, met with Russian foreign ministry officials over Russia’s alleged attack on an Italian charity in Aleppo.
For his part, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said on Sunday that Italy was “closely following developments in the crisis and that the Italian embassy in Damascus is in constant contact with citizens (mostly dual nationals) to facilitate their safe evacuation from the city”.
Tajani also said in X that the Russian attack had caused severe damage to the Terra Sancta College and called on all warring parties in Syria to “protect civilians”.
In a later statement, the foreign minister warned of a new migration crisis with the resumption of hostilities in Syria.
“Lebanon is already hosting one million Syrian refugees. There is a risk that a protracted civil war could lead to a new migration crisis,” Tajani said.
Speaking to journalists on the sidelines of an international humanitarian conference on Gaza in Cairo on Monday, Antonio Tajani warned that the conflict could drag on.
Tajani also argued that the conflict, which directly affects Lebanon, could also affect Europe.
It seems that the Aleppo offensive by the jihadists and their foreign backers will also succeed – at least for a while – in silencing the fractured voices in Europe.
Diplomacy
Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour
Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.
As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.
The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.
Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.
In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.
Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”
US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”
On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.
According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.
Diplomacy
Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.
According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.
Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.
The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.
Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.
He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.
The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.
On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.
In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.
In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.
The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.
Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.
In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.
“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”
Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.
He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.
Washington pledges to maintain defence support
Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.
“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.
Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.
“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.
Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks
In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.
He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.
Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”
Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.
The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.
In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.
The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.
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