Middle East
‘A lion in the way’ between Ankara and Damascus and the Arab world’s entryway
Bashar Assad, President of Syria, welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Special Envoy to Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, and his entourage. Normalizing relations with Turkey and other regional issues were reviewed during the meeting held in Damascus.
“In order for the meetings with the Turkish side to be fruitful and reach tangible goals and results that Syria wants from these meetings, they must be based on coordination and prior planning between Syria and Russia,” said the Syrian President.
Damascus expects Turkey “to end the occupation in Syrian territories and the support for terrorism,” Syrian President Assad told Putin’s delegate Lavrentiev.
Lavrentiev praised the tripartite summit in Moscow in the meeting, stressing the need to follow up on these meetings at the foreign ministers’ level.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, on a diplomatic visit to Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, also expressed that they welcomed the dialogue between Syria and Turkey. “We believe that it will reflect positively between the two countries,” added Abdollahian.
Arguing that “the United States does not have a policy of a regime change in Syria,” US State Department Spokesperson Ned Price has said that the US does not support the normalization process between Turkey and Syria. As for the “atrocities” perpetrated by the Assad regime in Syria, according to Price, he should be held to account for these “crimes against humanity.”
What has happened so far in normalization?
Turkey and Syria both made positive statements after the defense ministers of Turkey, Russia, and Syria met in Moscow on December 28. Damascus’s Al-Watan daily reported the next day that the contacts had been made in a “good mood.” The Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, also reiterated his hopes to meet with his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad, on a particular schedule.
The second half of January was reportedly scheduled to move military relations up to the diplomatic level. However, Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu announced that this meeting might take place at the beginning of February.
Several factors are at play contributing to the delay in the meeting. Damascus sees the presence of Turkish troops in Syria and Ankara’s support for the Free Syrian Army as a significant problem.
For instance, the statement of Yasin Aktay, chief advisor to the President of the AK Party and writer for Yeni Şafak, that “Aleppo should be placed under the control of Turkey with a temporary status” is a striking example that amplifies the security concerns of the Syrian side.
During the talks, another fundamental setback is Ankara’s refusal to approve Damascus’s demand that Turkish support be cut from the FSA during negotiations. Damascus claims that the Turkish military’s institutional presence in Syria is the sole force keeping afloat the FSA, which requests a share in the government.
To the Lebanon-based Al Mayadin on the day of the Assad-Lavrentiev meeting, senior Syrian sources revealed that “Damascus is not interested in presenting the card of making concessions to Ankara, the withdrawal of the Turkish army from all Syrian territories should be clarified, and the meeting between the Foreign Ministers is not scheduled as Damascus still has not approved yet.” Syria has been making these same points for a long time, and within them are signals somehow aimed at Russia.
In brief, Syria wants Russia to honor its promise to remove Turkey from Syrian territory appropriately. Before unconditionally reaching tangible goals, restates Damascus, Syria has no interest in turning into leverage that may be used in the election campaign in Turkey by intensifying the diplomacy.
Despite Moscow’s insistence, Damascus’s slow rapprochement with Turkey may be partially explained by Damascus’s ongoing normalization with Arab nations in the background. In other words, Syria is engaging in feverish efforts to turn back not just with Turkey but also with the rest of the Arab world. And the circumstance provides a variety of advantages.
Furthermore, progress is being made more quickly on that front than with Turkey. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) seems to be one step ahead in normalizing relations with the Arabs. Having visited Damascus twice since November, Emirati FM Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan met with Syrian leader Assad on January 4 and facilitated correspondence between Riyadh and Damascus. For the past year, the head of Syrian intelligence, Husam Luka’s close correspondences with his Saudi counterpart, Khalid bin Ali Khomeyan, is considered an indicator of thawing ties in Saudi-Syrian dialogue.
Foreign Ministers from Saudi Arabia and Egypt met on January 12 in Cairo and conveyed the message “Do not interfere in Arab states’ internal affairs” to Iran and Turkey. The two countries “rejected any military threats that infringe on the Syrian territories.”
The latest developments have pushed Ankara to find the right time in these multiple “normalizations.” As relations between Ankara and Damascus improve, Damascus is working to normalize with other Arab countries. Meanwhile, Iran also has efforts in this direction, and Ankara’s reconciliation attempts with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) continue. Iran is also working in this direction. Although reconciliation with Syria would have been easier for Ankara five years ago, Ankara should now consider the demands of Damascus, which gained the upper hand in a multi-actor normalization.
Middle East
US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt
The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.
The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.
Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.
Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.
A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.
Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.
A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”
This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.
An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”
The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”
“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.
The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.
The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.
A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.
In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”
The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.
The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.
Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.
Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.
In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.
Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.
This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.
Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.
Middle East
Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks
Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.
This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.
United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.
Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.
The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.
Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.
Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.
“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.
Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.
The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.
Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.
Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.
Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.
Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.
The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.
Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”
Middle East
Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.
Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.
Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.
The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.
The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”
Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.
Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.
Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.
Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”
Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.
According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:
“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”
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