Russia
A year that shook the global system
It has been a year since February 24th. The long history of the Russian-Ukrainian tensions has been marked by a year of hot conflict. While the parties did not give up on their strategic goals, the door of a long period of uncertainty was opened in which the global system skidded and shook.
On February 24, 2022, Russian leader Vladimir Putin announced the launch of a “special operation” and led the Russian army into Ukraine. Thus, the long-standing Russia-Ukraine tensions, in other words, the mistrust between the West and Russia, has moved to another level.
The security mechanisms established with Europe and NATO after the Cold War and the Minsk I and Minsk II agreements, which are the address of the search for a solution to the crisis in Ukraine, have lost their historical meaning. It remains unclear how this new page will be closed and how the European security order will take shape in the aftermath of this war.
“This is a European war,” said Prof. Dr. Vişne Korkmaz, “There are vehicles of various sizes on this military and political battlefield. We are on a crowded floor. We are not in the same situation as we were in 1945.”
“The fight started on a crowded field,” Korkmaz said, noting that arm wrestling over the global system could continue for a long time in line with the parties’ own agendas.
What was Russia’s goal?
The Russo-Ukrainian war, or “special military operation” as Moscow calls it, began as a result of a failure to meet the security guarantees demanded by Russia from the United States and NATO, and in total from the Atlantic world. The Western system, led by the United States, responded to Moscow’s intensified insistence in the last quarter of 2021 on “security guarantees”, the story of which dates back to the end of the Cold War, by further arming Ukraine.
For decision-makers in the Kremlin, this meant ignoring Russia as a great power. Dialogue mechanisms and protocols aimed at softening the conflicts and finding a solution were now “a diversionary tactic used by the West to further arm Ukraine” for Moscow.
Nisantasi University Faculty Member Prof. Dr. Vişne Korkmaz sees the historic decision on February 24th as a “mistake” for Moscow and adds “this conflict is also about shaping European security.”
Evaluating the one-year war process to Harici, Korkmaz said, “Russia had two goals. Converting the post-Cold War European Security architecture to a point where it would be more advantageous. They failed to accomplish this without war. The West did not give Russia what it wanted in this sense. Russia became a party to the conventional European war. Secondly, we were aware of the conventional power of Russia. Russia was a great power, but not quite. Russia wanted to become a great power. Status is a position granted by the parties to you. Russia could not come close to achieving these two goals, but I do not see a war that Russia has lost yet. The facts of the field do not show a complete loss.”
How to disrupt the pat situation on the field?
“We are not evaluating the fronts of a war that ended like the Second World War. We are currently following an open conflict between two asymmetrical forces: this is a European war!” Korkmaz emphasized the lively, dynamic and variable aspect of the process.
Korkmaz assessed that the reality on the field could change if Ukraine sweeps the Russian forces from its territory or if Russia changes its strategic objectives, and said that she does not see such a possibility for the time being.
“It is a strange war, a war that can be continued. It will probably take longer. There are unknowns,” Korkmaz said, adding that both Russia and the West have made miscalculations.
“There is a deadlock for Russia that it has not given up on. I do not think it will revise its strategic goals. It has not even revised its tactical goals. It has not given up on its demands regarding the security future of the EU,” Korkmaz summarized Moscow’s current situation and added “The West also made a mistake, thinking that Russia could be isolated very easily. Russia has to continue in a way that brings it closer to its strategic goals. Moscow could not be pushed out of the system globally. It is not easy to keep a great power out of the system.”
What is the situation on the Western Front?
Referring to the “different voices” that emerge from time to time in the West, Korkmaz said, “Everyone has a different purpose. Each purpose has its own unique schedule. We are talking about a long struggle with different stages.”
Stating that it was a “struggle over the global system unlike the Cold War”, Korkmaz said, “Europe was caught unprepared and followed the US. It could not create its own stance and means.”
For the state of Europe, Korkmaz noted, “There seems to be only one West. Different voices have died out. Europe had to adapt itself to the NATO and EU agenda because it was not prepared. That is why Europe did not speak out.”
Where and how will the war end?
While the Istanbul process and the People’s Republic of China’s 12-point plan stand out as concrete efforts to resolve the crisis, there has yet to be a strong will to bring the parties to the negotiating table. The West is currently busy arming Ukraine, and Russia is reportedly preparing for a frontal offensive.
“I do not think Russia will test ‘NATO’ deterrence. There is a real risk that the war will spread to areas outside the NATO umbrella, such as Moldova,” Korkmaz said.
According to Prof. Dr. Korkmaz the United States has begun to move more towards the Asian front regarding its global goals. At this point, “The United States has been targeting China in particular recently. The message given through Ukraine is directed at China. The United States have more time for China,” she said and commented “The West has succeeded in limiting Russia to the Ukraine war.”
Korkmaz thinks that “the peace plans do not offer much either,” adding, “We are still in a deep stalemate. Russia has not lost totally.” Stating that although the “Ukrainian resistance” has been successful so far, Kiev is also far from winning, Korkmaz argued that a long-term struggle is a reality.
For now, it seems impossible to predict where the gods of war will stop. What is certain is that the world has become too large to fit into its old mold and seems ready to establish a new security framework. It is necessary to see that peace can only be established around new concepts and with a new understanding.
A quote by the famous Italian Marxist Antonio Gramcsi summarizes the situation: “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.”
Russia
Drone strike ignites St. Petersburg oil terminal as major economic forum opens
Drone strikes targeted Russia’s Leningrad region overnight, sparking a fire at a strategically vital oil terminal in St. Petersburg on the opening day of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. The attacks, which struck multiple regions across Russia, prompted widespread airspace restrictions and targeted military-industrial facilities.
Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of the Leningrad region, announced that Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) carried out an attack on the region during the night of June 3.
According to information provided by the governor, a total of 50 drones were shot down during the aerial assault, which began around 02:00 and continued until 07:00. Governor Drozdenko did not share detailed information regarding any damage or casualties resulting from the attack.
Local media outlet Bumaga reported that the sounds of explosions were heard in the Admiralteysky, Vasileostrovsky, Primorsky, and Krasnoselsky districts of St. Petersburg.
In the Kirovsky district, the attack resulted in a fire at the Petersburg Oil Terminal, one of Russia’s largest oil transshipment facilities on the Baltic Sea.
With an annual transit capacity of 12.5 million metric tons of fuel and housing 21 reservoirs used for storing petroleum products, this enterprise holds strategic importance for ensuring Russia’s security.
The drone attack on the oil terminal occurred on the opening day of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), scheduled to take place from June 3 to 6, where Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to deliver a speech.
The Expoforum exhibition center, where the forum is being held, is reportedly located approximately 17 kilometers from the targeted oil terminal. Due to drone activity and the threat of aerial attacks, more than 29 flights experienced delays at Pulkovo Airport.
On the same night, the city of Michurinsk in the Tambov region, located in the interior of Russia, was also targeted by aerial attacks. Region Governor Yevgeny Pervyshov stated in a declaration on the matter: “As a result of the crash of UAVs belonging to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, an apartment building, a library, and an art school were damaged, with their windows shattered, and the outbuildings of an industrial enterprise were also damaged. There are no casualties or injuries.”
According to an investigation by the Astra news portal, the primary target of the drones in the area was the Progress factory, which manufactures control systems for aviation and missile technologies.
The military-industrial facility in question had previously been subjected to drone attacks in February of this year, as well as in June 2025 and December 2024.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced in a statement that a total of 354 drones were shot down over Russian territory throughout the night.
It was reported that air defense systems intercepted or shot down drones across a total of 16 administrative regions, including the Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kaluga, Kursk, Leningrad, Novgorod, Oryol, Rostov, Tula, and Moscow regions.
Due to the threat of aerial attacks, the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) imposed temporary restrictions on the operations of Moscow’s Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports, as well as airports in the cities of Kaluga, Saratov, Nizhny Novgorod, Yaroslavl, and Pskov, starting from the evening of June 2.
Russia
Russia moves to privatize major oil port operator amid widening budget deficit
Russia is preparing to privatize the state’s stake in Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port (NMTP), one of the country’s largest port operators, as the government seeks to finance a widening federal budget deficit. Russia’s federal budget shortfall reached nearly 6 trillion rubles in the January-April period.
After Rosimushchestvo on Friday announced plans to sell the state’s stake in Aeroflot, a 20% government holding in NMTP was also added to the privatization program. According to Interfax, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed the relevant decree on May 23.
The entire state stake in the holding company is expected to be offered for sale during the 2026-2028 period. NMTP includes two major oil ports that together handle roughly half of Russia’s oil exports.
One of them is the Novorossiysk port on the Black Sea, with a capacity of around 500,000 barrels per day. The other is the Primorsk port on the Baltic Sea coast, with a capacity of approximately 1 million barrels per day.
The holding also includes the Baltiysk port in the Kaliningrad region. Last year, the company generated revenue of 76.5 billion rubles and net profit of 40.6 billion rubles.
State-owned pipeline operator Transneft is NMTP’s largest shareholder, holding a 60% stake.
Transneft acquired the shares in 2018 after the previous shareholder, billionaire Ziyavudin Magomedov, was arrested on charges of creating an organized criminal group.
Magomedov was later sentenced to 19 years in prison in the same case. Around 20% of NMTP is held by private investors, including stock market participants.
According to Reuters estimates, the state could raise around 33 billion rubles from the sale of its NMTP stake. That would be slightly below the estimated 45 billion ruble valuation of the Aeroflot stake slated for privatization.
Potential buyers for the 20% state stake have not yet been identified, and no official information has been released. However, Freedom Finance Global analyst Natalya Milchakova said major investors could show interest in the asset.
“The asset could attract the attention of state-linked organizations ranging from commodity and transport-logistics companies to major financial institutions. Players with more limited financial resources would neither be able to acquire the NMTP shares in question nor become strategic investors in this sector,” Milchakova said.
Revenue generated from the privatization will be transferred to the federal budget. The Russian government drafted this year’s budget with a projected deficit of 3.8 trillion rubles.
However, by the end of April, the actual budget deficit had exceeded the annual target by more than 1.5 times.
Economist Dmitry Polevoy previously said the budget could lose between 300 billion and 700 billion rubles in revenue this year because of lower economic growth forecasts.
According to Polevoy’s calculations, undercollection of non-oil budget revenues could rise to between 1.3 trillion and 1.8 trillion rubles next year.
Polevoy said that unless current conditions change, the government would be forced either to cut spending or seek additional revenue sources of a similar scale.
Russia
Iran and Russia reaffirm strategic alliance following high-level talks in St. Petersburg
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, following high-level meetings in Moscow and St. Petersburg, stated that recent regional developments have once again demonstrated the depth and strength of the strategic partnership between Iran and Russia.
The Iranian minister met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in St. Petersburg on Monday.
During the meeting, Putin described the Iranian people’s struggle to preserve their sovereignty as “brave and heroic.” Putin further expressed his hope for the restoration of peace and stated that Russia would take the necessary steps to protect the interests of both Iran and regional states while contributing to the establishment of stability in the area.
Araghchi noted that Tehran appreciates the support provided by the Moscow administration during the period of US and Israeli attacks against Iran.
Emphasizing that relations between Iran and Russia will continue to strengthen on the basis of a strategic partnership, Araghchi criticized the silence of certain countries in the face of violations and pressure exerted by the US. He warned that this application of double standards would negatively impact the entire international community.
Addressing mediation efforts led by Pakistan, Araghchi said that the Washington administration’s unreasonable demands, shifting positions, use of threatening language, and frequent violations of its commitments remain the primary obstacles to diplomatic processes.
In an additional statement shared via his social media accounts, Araghchi expressed satisfaction with the “highest-level” talks held in Russia at a time when West Asia is undergoing a transformation driven by the policies of Israel and its Western supporters. Araghchi reiterated his gratification regarding Russia’s solidarity and its support for diplomacy, noting that bilateral relations will continue to evolve.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov also stated that mutual support between Moscow and Tehran would continue in the face of the aggressive stance displayed by the US toward Iran.
According to the TASS news agency, Belousov met with Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Reza Talai-Nik in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, where he emphasized that Russia would maintain its support for Iran regardless of evolving conditions. Belousov noted that Russia supports Iranian sovereignty and territorial integrity, adding that Moscow favors a resolution of the crisis through diplomatic channels exclusively and is prepared to do everything within its power to facilitate such a solution.
Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Reza Talai-Nik expressed satisfaction with Moscow’s support for Tehran in international forums and its commitment to enhancing defense cooperation.
These meetings took place against a backdrop of a continuing US blockade of Iranian ports and vessels. The Tehran administration characterizes this blockade as part of US aggression and a violation of ceasefire conditions.
The Iranian side has announced that it will not enter into a new negotiation process with Washington unless the current blockade is lifted. According to leaked information, Tehran is proposing a three-stage plan for potential talks with the US.
In the first stage of this formula, Iran demands an end to the war and guarantees that attacks against Iran and Lebanon will not be repeated. The second stage envisions the management of the Strait of Hormuz being handled in coordination with Oman, while the nuclear file is intended to be brought to the agenda only after these two stages have been completed.
-
Asia2 weeks agoIran conflict accelerates yuan adoption and record CIPS volumes in global oil trade
-
Asia2 weeks agoXi and Putin deepen partnership with call for ‘multipolar world’
-
Europe2 weeks agoFive EU states push gradual single market access for Western Balkans
-
Europe1 week agoFrench justice minister calls for three-year halt to legal immigration
-
Middle East1 week agoLeaked documents show IRGC routed Chinese military equipment through UAE
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoNATO weighs Hormuz security mission if Iran blockade remains in place by July
-
Middle East1 week agoIran says Hormuz transit will remain free but ships must cover operational costs
-
Europe2 weeks agoGermany initiates diplomatic contact with France’s National Rally ahead of presidential election
