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Admirals assess: Sweden’s membership will complete the West’s stronghold in Europe

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the NATO Summit in Vilnius. In a statement released after the trilateral meeting, it was reported that Turkey will refer Sweden’s NATO Accession Protocols to the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM), while Sweden will support efforts to revitalize Turkey’s European Union (EU) membership process.

As part of this process, Sweden has significantly expanded its counter-terrorism cooperation against the PKK and resumed arms exports to Turkey, in line with all the steps set out in the Trilateral Memorandum agreed in 2022, the statement said, adding that the two countries are working closely together to address Turkey’s legitimate security concerns.

Turkey and Sweden agreed to continue cooperation within the framework of both the Trilateral Permanent Joint Mechanism established at the 2022 Madrid NATO Summit and a new bilateral security mechanism that will meet once every year at the ministerial level and establish appropriate working groups, the statement said:

“At the first meeting of this Security Compact, Sweden will present a roadmap as the basis of its continued fight against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations towards the full implementation of all elements of the Trilateral Memorandum, including article 4. Sweden reiterates that it will not provide support to YPG/PYD, and the organization described as FETÖ in Türkiye. Both Sweden and Türkiye agreed that counter-terrorism cooperation is a long-term effort, which will continue beyond Sweden’s accession to NATO.

Secretary General Stoltenberg also reconfirmed that NATO categorically condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. NATO will be significantly stepping up its work in this area, including by the Secretary General establishing, for the first time at NATO, the post of Special Coordinator for Counter-Terrorism. We commit to the principle that there should be no restrictions, barriers or sanctions to defence trade and investment among Allies. We will work towards eliminating such obstacles.”

Speaking to Harici, Veteran Counter Admiral Deniz Kutluk and Counter Admiral Dr. Alaettin Sevim evaluated Sweden’s NATO membership.

‘International give-and-take exercise’

Counter Admiral Deniz Kutluk, who stated that NATO’s expansion is remarkable while the war in Ukraine continues, underlined that the center of gravity of the summit was Ukraine and said, “NATO is taking steps in terms of linking aid to Ukraine to a program in NATO and other support elements. There is a question of approving the operation plans prepared by NATO in three regions against Russia’s threats. This issue concerns Turkey closely because one of these three programs includes the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.”

Referring to Turkey’s requests for Sweden’s NATO membership, Kutluk said, “There are articles such as NATO’s support for Turkey’s rapprochement with the European Union and the establishment of a committee for the first time in NATO history by regulating Sweden’s attitudes towards terrorism. If you ask me about the European Union, the two organizations cannot influence each other, so Turkey’s membership in the European Union cannot be very successful. However, Turkey has exercised its right to bring this issue to the agenda. As a result, this is an international give-and-take exercise.”

‘Even if a decision is made, the planes will be delivered at least three years later’

Admiral Kutluk responded to questions about Russia’s stance on this issue and agenda issues such as F-16 fighter jets as follows:

“Sweden’s joining NATO is an issue that Russia does not see as a contradiction. Regarding Sweden and Finland, Russia has stated that it will not affect its relations with the two countries as long as no NATO offensive weapons are deployed. As far as the F-16s are concerned, this is a commercial concept. But it has a production time of three years. So if the decision is made today, the planes will be delivered at least three years later. Therefore, it is not known how Turkish-American relations will be in the next three years. US President Joe Biden has said that they will decide on the F-16 issue by considering the mutual interests of the congress. There is no definite map. But at the end of the day, this is a very large arms purchase deal. The US knows very well that there is no country that has surrendered to embargoes. In fact, in the text of the memorandum of understanding with Sweden in NATO, it is stated that no NATO member will impose economic and military embargoes on each other. It should not be forgotten that this is a clause that also binds the US.”

‘The missing pieces of the West in Europe are being put in place’

(V.) Rear Admiral Dr. Alaettin Sevim stated that Sweden’s membership points to a geo-strategic process and said:

“The missing pieces in Europe are to be put in place and with this membership, the West’s stronghold in Europe will be completed. NATO will emerge as a pillar in the developments in the Arctic Region in the North. On the other hand, NATO’s armament budget is to be increased through armaments at a time when the threat of global recession is increasing. The Russia issue is important here. A new process for an arms race to wear Russia down may begin. It was thought that the Soviet Union collapsed due to its inability to manage its economy well. We may face a new application of this event. Because, when we read prominent Western writers, it is clear that there are ideas in favor of Russia’s disintegration.

The issue of entry into the European Union was brought up at the last moment. Other countries in the bloc have also expressed that Sweden’s entry into NATO and Turkey’s entry into the EU are different issues. Therefore, it would not be reasonable to expect progress on this issue. Maybe Turkey can be supported by providing more economic aid to Turkey in the refugee issue.”

‘Russia will take its measures’

“The most important progress on Turkey’s demands could be on the modernization of the F-16s. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had said before the summit that they are prioritizing the congress on the F-16 issue, but what will our parliament say about it? This discourse paints a picture like this: If progress is made in the US on the F-16 issue, Turkey’s parliament will make as much progress with the US.

To summarize the NATO membership of Sweden and Finland, I think it is an important step for NATO to close the gaps in Europe. The contribution of Sweden’s arms industry to NATO should be taken into consideration. Of course, to a certain extent, these countries have to make certain investments in NATO armaments. There will be economic aspects related to this. Russia will also have to take certain measures. This could be challenging for the Russian economy. On the map, Russia will have to think more about NATO’s borders, which are moving closer to Russian bases. The Polyarny base, the most important Russian ballistic submarine missile base, is very close to Finland. And more than half of Russia’s submarines with ballistic missiles are based there. Russia will take measures in this regard.”

Diplomacy

Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour

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Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.

As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.

The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.

Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.

In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.

Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”

US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”

On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.

According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.

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Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions

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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.

According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.

Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.

The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.

Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.

He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.

Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.

Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.

The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.

On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.

In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.

In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.

The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.

Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.

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Diplomacy

Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.

In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.

“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”

Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.

He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.

Washington pledges to maintain defence support

Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.

“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.

Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.

“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.

Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks

In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.

He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.

Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”

Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.

The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.

In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.

The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.

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