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Afghanistan-Iran cross-border tension: Who to blame

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Afghanistan and Iran troops have engaged in heavy cross-border clashes, killing and wounding troops in rapid escalation of tensions over water rights.

At least two Iranian border guards and one Taliban member have lost their lives in the battle and several other people received injuries.

There is no immediate indication of what had provoked the incident, but recently Iran’s leader threatened the Taliban amid tensions between the two countries over water rights.

The deadly clashes happened on the border of Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province and southern Afghan province Nirmoz. Authorities from both sides confirmed the clashes had subsided and the two neighbors engaged in talks to ease tensions. Both sides accused each other of firing first.

Spokesman for the Taliban Interior Ministry Abdul Nafi Takor said that Iranian border forces fired toward Afghanistan first, which faced a counter-reaction by the Taliban border forces.

Takor said that the situation is now under control, and the Islamic Emirate does not want to fight with its neighbors, but prevent mentioning the name of Iran.

Iran‘s Deputy Police Chief, Qasem Rezaei blamed Taliban forces for firing first at the Sasoli checkpoint which caused a decisive response. Rezaei charged the Taliban forces for not observing intentional laws and neighborliness.

No room for aggression

A Taliban commander, Abdul Hamid Khorasani called on the Iran leadership not to play with the patience of the people of Afghanistan and the government.

“We are not slaves of the colonialists and we won’t tolerate your aggressions,” Khorasani said, referring to Iran’s border firing toward Afghanistan.

In a message sent to Harici, Khorasani said that the Taliban security forces will not tolerate any kind of “aggression” and warned Iran of a “deadly response” if a single bullet fired toward Afghanistan.

“Our leadership had shown restraint, otherwise we were ready to fight against Iran with more passion and even greater than our fight against the NATO occupiers,” he added.

In a clear word, he said that they will conquer Iran if the leadership in the Islamic Emirate allow them to wage Jihad against Tehran, and also accused Iran of being a good friend to the Western countries.

But, Taliban defense ministry spokesman, Enayatullah Khowarazmi said that Kabul considers dialogue and negotiation to be a reasonable way to address any problem.

He said that blaming games and negative actions is not in the interest of either side.

Iran decisively responses to any aggression

Iran had vowed not to let the Taliban attack stand, and said that its border forces have been alert 24 hours to respond in a harsh way to any cross-border aggression.

Iran’s Police Chief, Ahmadreza Radan said that the border forces will “decisively respond” to any border trespassing and aggression and blamed the Taliban leadership for the border skirmishes.

Iran’s deputy head of the police force, Qassem Rezaee said that the Taliban started shooting with all kinds of weapons at an Iranian police station.

Light and semi-light weapons and artillery were used in the clashes, according to the official Tasnim news agency.

The escalation comes after Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi during his visit to Sistan-Baluchistan on May 18, warned Taliban leadership to give the people of Sistan their water rights.

He also warned the Taliban to take his words “seriously” and called on Kabul to observe Iran‘s water rights under the 1973 treaty. However, the Taliban rejected Raisi’s perceived threat.

Water, the real cause of dispute

Tensions over water rights have risen between Iran and Afghanistan in recent weeks, where Iran accused Afghanistan for blocking the flow of water and called for the release of more water.

Kajaki Dam on the Helmand River, Afghanistan.

The Taliban had repeatedly denied violation of the agreement, and said low water levels on the Helmand River and rejected the preclude of water flows to Iran’s southeastern Sistan-Baluchistan province.

Iran has been struggling with drought for some 30 years, but has worsened over the past decade, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Meteorological Organization said there is an estimated 97pc of the country that now faces some level of drought.

The Taliban seized Afghanistan in August 2021 as U.S. and NATO troops were in the final weeks of their pullout from the country after 20 years of war.

While not directly accepting the Taliban government, Iran has maintained relations with Afghanistan’s new rulers. Tehran also has called on the Taliban to allow women and girls to go to school.

Diplomacy didn’t work

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian had earlier spoken on a phone with his Afghan counterpart Amir Khan Muttaqi and asked for the reopening of the gates of the inland Kajaki Dam on the Helmand River, and let the people on both sides be hydrated.

Right after the call, Muttaqi held a meeting with Hassan Kazemi Qom, the Iranian ambassador in Kabul, where they discussed issues of bilateral relations, including water issues.

“The minister of foreign affairs also noted that issues between the two sides can be better resolved through mutual dialog and understanding,” Afghan Foreign Ministry’s deputy spokesman said on Twitter.

Muttaqi had earlier said that Taliban remains committed to the 1973 treaty, but said that drought in Afghanistan and the region should also not be ignored.

Afghanistan has been facing its third year of drought, and has been ranked third on a 2023 emergency watch list issued by the International Rescue Committee.

On May 22, the Taliban foreign ministry called on Iran to prevent talking about water in the media and instead engaged in talks directly with Kabul to find a local solution to the problem.

It was the first deadly clashes between the border forces of Afghanistan and Iran since Taliban took control of the country in 2021.

Middle East

France explores Syrian transit routes as alternative oil corridor to bypass Strait of Hormuz

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France is evaluating the creation of alternative energy routes through Syria to mitigate potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz following the resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated that Paris is working on new transit routes for the transport of Persian Gulf oil, with Syria emerging as a prominent option in this context.

“Among the initiatives we have pursued since the beginning of this crisis is the concept of preparing alternative routes, in order to avoid remaining dependent on blockages that could occur here or there,” Barrot said.

Barrot indicated that Syria, which has entered a process of reunification following the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad administration, could become a “new regional hub.” The French minister characterized the country as a strategic corridor that could transport Persian Gulf oil to the Mediterranean, thereby reducing the impact of potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Stating that France wishes to expand commercial and economic cooperation with the Damascus administration, Barrot expressed that they aim to establish a secure transit route for Gulf producing nations through this cooperation.

According to Barrot, implementing this plan requires a comprehensive assessment of existing infrastructure and the provision of necessary security guarantees. The French minister noted that these efforts are of critical importance for securing global energy markets.

Barrot’s remarks followed French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Damascus on Tuesday. During the visit, Macron met with Ahmed Shara, the former al-Qaeda leader who has declared himself President of Syria.

Patrick Pouyanné, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of TotalEnergies, was among the delegation accompanying Macron. Characterizing Syria as a country situated “at the crossroads of the Middle East,” Pouyanné said it could establish a vital energy link between Iraq and the Mediterranean.

In response to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq has been shipping its oil via tankers through Syria for export since April.

More than 600,000 tons of fuel were exported through this route between April and June. Last month, Iraqi and Syrian officials discussed the reactivation of the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline and the establishment of energy transit mechanisms.

TotalEnergies has also signed a memorandum of understanding for an offshore exploration block in the Mediterranean. However, Pouyanné stated that beyond this, the company currently has no concrete projects under development.

Stating that security conditions in the country have not yet stabilized, Pouyanné said, “It is clear today that the security situation does not yet permit us to operate here. However, I believe coming here, to Damascus, is a positive initiative.”

Shortly after Pouyanné’s statements, two bombs reportedly exploded near the Four Seasons Hotel, where the French delegation was staying.

Stating that the Syrian administration must be given time to establish control over the country, Pouyanné said, “We must not demand too much,” adding, “We need to be a little patient.”

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Senior US military officers ignored system alerts on obsolete targets, leading to strike on Iranian school

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Senior US military commanders approved strike lists despite automated system warnings indicating that intelligence on certain targets in Iran was years out of date and required revalidation, according to a CNN report citing three sources familiar with the decision-making process.

The warnings were bypassed to “speed things up” under intense pressure to rapidly designate targets during the opening days of the conflict. One of the targets approved by commanders under these conditions resulted in a strike on a school in Minab.

This military decision is directly linked to the February 28 strike on the Shajara Tayyiba School in Minab, which killed at least 168 children and 14 teachers. The heavy loss of life makes the strike one of the mass casualty events involving the highest number of civilian deaths in the recent history of the US military.

According to the sources, automated system warning messages indicating that the intelligence was obsolete were already integrated into the database used during the target development process. Within this system, a target could only be added to a strike list with the approval of a senior officer. Two sources stated that the decision by senior commanders to ignore these warnings directly contributed to the school being targeted “by mistake.”

Military officials reportedly realized within days of the strike on the school that the error stemmed from outdated information. Despite the passage of months, the Pentagon has not released its investigation report on the incident.

A White House official stated that the investigation remains ongoing, asserting, “As we have said before, the US does not target civilians.”

The Pentagon referred inquiries on the matter to US Central Command (CENTCOM), which declined to comment, citing the active investigation.

School and military facility were located within the same compound

The strike reportedly occurred while the US military was targeting an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facility located near the Shajara Tayyiba School. Initial military investigative findings also pointed to this conclusion.

Satellite imagery reveals negligence in the target analysis process. Imagery from 2013 shows the school and the IRGC base located within the same compound, whereas imagery from 2016 clearly indicates that the school had been separated from the base by a fence and provided with a separate entrance.

In satellite imagery dated December 2025, dozens of children can be seen playing in the schoolyard.

The strike took place on the first day of operations following Donald Trump’s decision to launch military action, a period during which military officials and intelligence analysts worked under intense pressure to update thousands of targets.

Analysts were unable to update all records in the Pentagon database prior to the operation. As a result, records for multiple targets—including the IRGC facility adjacent to the elementary school—consisted of information that was more than 10 years old.

Due to the accelerated timeline, analysts prioritized updating “high-priority” records, which included moving targets with a high probability of being struck first and locations posing an immediate threat to US forces. Because fixed facilities were deemed a lower priority, the information for the facility near the school was not updated.

Disconnected databases and staffing shortages compounded the error

At the center of the investigation are two separate targeting databases used by the Pentagon. These are known as the Modernized Integrated Database (MIDB), which was built in the 1980s and relies on manual data entry, and the Mitigation and Analysis Reporting System (MARS), a new artificial intelligence-backed digital platform.

Both systems indicated that information needed to be updated before use. However, efforts to fully transition to the MARS system were reportedly years behind schedule, leaving official targeting data still dependent on the legacy MIDB system.

An intelligence analyst had previously noted changes on the ground in a separate digital tool, but because this tool was not connected to the official targeting database, the information did not reach commanders. How this disconnect influenced the targeting of the school is also being examined as part of the investigation.

Following the strike, Donald Trump suggested that Iran might be responsible for the incident, later asserting that responsibility might never be determined. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the strike would be thoroughly investigated, claiming that the US takes every possible measure to prevent civilian casualties.

However, due to cuts implemented early in Hegseth’s tenure, Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) teams within CENTCOM were reportedly facing severe staffing shortages.

Under the cuts made by Hegseth prior to the conflict with Iran, the 10-person civilian casualty specialist staff at CENTCOM was reduced to a single full-time employee.

Sources added that while the remaining staff did everything they could, they lacked adequate resources due to the budget and personnel cuts implemented by Hegseth.

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US revokes Iran oil license and launches airstrikes following Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks

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The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has revoked a general license that permitted commercial transactions involving Iranian oil.

According to a statement issued by the agency, the “General License X” regulation, which had been in effect since June 21, 2026, was fully rescinded as of July 7, 2026, and replaced by the newly introduced “General License X1” regulation.

The statement noted that a wind-down period lasting until July 17 has been granted to allow for the completion of transactions initiated prior to the revocation.

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reacted strongly to the OFAC decision, declaring that Tehran will take all necessary measures to protect its national security and interests.

In a statement shared on the ministry’s official Telegram channel, Iran stated: “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran decisively condemns the US Department of the Treasury’s decision to revoke the temporary suspension of sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil. This step is a flagrant violation of Article 10 of the memorandum of understanding concerning the cessation of military conflict.”

Following the decision, the US Armed Forces conducted a series of airstrikes targeting Iranian territory during the night of July 8. US officials maintained that the military operation was a response to Tehran’s actions in the region. Washington characterized Iran’s conduct as a violation of the ceasefire regime and a threat to the security of navigation in the region.

The Iranian state broadcaster, IRIB, reported that explosions occurred at various locations across the country. News sources noted that seven explosions were heard near the village of Taherui in the Sirik district, and six explosions were heard near the city of Qeshm.

Previously, US media outlets including The Wall Street Journal and Axios, citing US officials, had reported that despite the active ceasefire, forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had attacked oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz.

According to data shared by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a tanker off the coast of Oman was struck by an unidentified munition, causing a fire on board. It was reported that the incident resulted in no casualties, injuries, or environmental pollution.

The Wall Street Journal reported that one of the targeted vessels may have been the “Al Rekayyat,” a tanker owned by the Qatar-based shipping company Nakilat.

The vessel sustained damage to its engine room, though the crew was reported to be safe. Axios reported that while the attacked vessels sustained damage, no major destruction had occurred.

On June 18, 2026, the US and Iran had signed a memorandum of understanding that established a two-month ceasefire and envisioned the initiation of negotiations for a more comprehensive agreement.

Following the start of the ceasefire period, the US had also struck targets in Iran on June 27 and June 28, citing Iranian actions against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Following those strikes, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had announced that operations would be launched against US facilities located in Arab countries.

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