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Another peace rally in Berlin: is the ice breaking?

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Almost a year ago, thousands of people gathered in a rainy Berlin to protest against the German government’s involvement in the war in Ukraine.

At the time, the crisis in the Left Party was in full swing and the break with Sahra Wagenknecht and her friends had become official. When the Left Party leadership decided to stay away from the rally, the demonstration was dominated by the not-yet-formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and its charismatic leader Sahra Wagenknecht.

This time, at the rally on 3 October, it was not quite so. Under the slogan “No more war – lay down your arms”, the demonstration at the Victory Column attracted not “thousands” but “tens of thousands” (the organisers spoke of at least 40,000 people). Wagenknecht was, of course, the most popular speaker, but this time the leader of the Left Party, Gesine Lötzsch, was also present. Organisations of Turkish origin also participated more intensively this time.

The date also seemed to have been specially chosen. 3 October is the ‘Day of German Unity’, the day when Germany was ‘united’, but in reality the German Democratic Republic was swallowed by the Federal Republic. In the 1990s there were fears that a reunited Germany would seek war, as it had done at least twice before in history. Berlin’s ‘turning point’ with the war in Ukraine seemed to confirm these fears.

Before the speeches began, rapper S. Castro summed up the main idea of the rally by singing a song with the lyrics ‘In Kiev we ignore the Hitler salute because our minds are banned’.

At the start of the rally, organiser Reiner Braun, a veteran of the German peace movement, called for an ‘end to the killing’ in Gaza and Lebanon.

Perhaps the most interesting moment of the rally came when SPD member of parliament Ralf Stegner took to the podium. The SPD is the largest member of Germany’s grand coalition and is seen as the party most responsible for the war policy in Ukraine. Although Stegner is considered a ‘dissident’ within his own party (which was the reason for his appearance at the rally), when he spoke about ‘Russia’s war of aggression’ and ‘Ukraine’s right to self-defence’ he was met with a storm of whistles and boos. Stegner claimed that Germany’s aid, including military aid, was ‘humanitarian’, but his speech was briefly interrupted by whistling. At this point the organising committee intervened and asked the crowd to let Stegner continue. Amid the jeers, the SPD politician claimed that his party remained part of the peace movement and called for a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine.

Stegner could be said to be torn between two mosques. Before the rally, when it was announced that he would also be a speaker, he was attacked by the Greens and the SPD. The SPD politician had said the day before that the issue of peace ‘should not be left to parties like the BSW and AfD’.

Another surprise at the rally was the Bavarian conservative politician Peter Gauweiler. Speaking from the podium, Gauweiler of the CSU said it was the first time in his life he had attended a peace rally. In a speech that at times drew laughter from the crowd, the CSU politician also greeted his ‘old friend Oskar Lafontaine’ and argued that when it comes to arms deliveries to Kiev, ‘you can’t put out a fire with petrol’.

The much-anticipated Wagenknecht, on the other hand, spoke with the confidence of someone who has become a leader of the peace movement. He said he had ‘great respect’ for the booing SPD Stegner, but stressed that the SPD leadership, Olaf Scholz and Boris Pistorius were no longer part of the peace movement. The Green Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock was ‘a security risk for Germany’ and people like her were dragging the country further and further into war.

Anyone who started a war for them was guilty, she said, adding: ‘But please, no double standards. If Putin is a criminal, what about the US politicians who have been responsible for so many wars in recent years? The BSW leader was also almost alone in criticising the planned deployment of American intermediate-range missiles in Germany.

At the end of her speech, Wagenknecht quoted the author Erich Maria Remarque: “I always thought that everyone was against the war, until I learned that there are those who are for it, especially those who don’t have to go”.

Wagenknecht’s quote refers to politicians from the ‘traffic light’ coalition, such as the Greens’ Anton Hofreiter and the FDP’s Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann. Wagenknecht points out that these are ‘warmongers’ who should form a battalion and prove themselves in battle.

And then the thicker and thicker strands of German politics are hit. Last year I wrote about the caution on the Palestinian issue. This year there were plenty of Palestinian and Lebanese flags in the crowd (and the odd Russian flag), but there was little difference in the political context.

On the Middle East, for example, Wagenknecht said it was ‘inhuman to applaud when Iran fires rockets at Israel’. However, he said the debate lacked empathy for the ‘Palestinian victims’, adding: “Terrorists cannot be stopped by terror and war”.

Some other BSW politicians, calling for a halt to German arms supplies to Israel and an immediate ceasefire, also feel the need to begin their remarks with ‘Hamas terror’.

For Germany, Israel is an absolute reality whose existence cannot even be questioned, justified by its role in the Holocaust. Israel exists as the child of German guilt, to the extent that for a German the possible destruction of Israel is more important than the possible destruction of Germany. In the words of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, support for Israel is declared to be Germany’s state mission, the wisdom of the German state, its raison d’être.

However, it should not be assumed that the participants in the rally were all on the same wavelength. For example, according to Deutsche Welle, ‘some isolated members of the demonstration’ carried banners accusing NATO of genocide in eastern Ukraine and Israel of genocide in Gaza. As the heavyweights left the rally after Wagenknecht and the crowd began to disperse, Salah Abdel-Shafi, the Palestinian Authority’s envoy to Vienna, took to the podium and said that Israel had been committing genocide for a year and that the world had remained silent.

Then Iris Hefets of Jewish Voice for a Just Peace in the Middle East, a supporter of the BDS movement, and activist Nadija Samour spoke together. Hefets said Israel was committing genocide in Palestine with the support of Germany.

Nevertheless, it can be said that the peace movement in Germany is gaining momentum and has shaken off some of its dead wood. Although no major cracks have yet appeared in mainstream politics, the politicians we spoke to believe that the outcome of September’s state elections in East Germany could change Berlin. The 3 October rally was well attended, and the fact that some people from the Left Party, even the SPD and CSU, joined the demonstration may be a small indication of this.

The prospect of early federal elections also depends in part on this. Before the budget for 2025 is presented to the Bundestag in November, we will know whether the death knell has been sounded for the SPD-Green coalition, which was soundly defeated in the state elections. Nevertheless, it is clear that Germany is entering a period in which at least ‘some things will change’ in order to ‘keep things the same’.

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Germany considers transferring Nord Stream 2 to US control

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In Germany, discussions are underway regarding the potential transfer of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to US control. The pipeline became unusable following sabotage in September 2022. The aim is to resume the flow of Russian gas to Europe.

According to a report by Bild newspaper, negotiations are ongoing to reach an agreement.

Meanwhile, some politicians from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, who was recently elected as prime minister, have suggested that natural gas imports from Russia could resume after the war in Ukraine ends.

CDU Member of Parliament Thomas Bareiss stated that Nord Stream 2 could be used for supplies, saying, “If peace is restored, relations normalize, and embargoes gradually ease, then, of course, gas could flow again, perhaps through a pipeline now under US control.”

Jan Heinisch, the deputy chairman of the CDU group in the North Rhine-Westphalia State Parliament, also stated that Germany should consider buying Russian gas again if a “fair and reliable” peace agreement is signed in Ukraine.

Heinisch added, “Whether this will be done by sea or via a pipeline remains to be seen.”

At the same time, Heinisch emphasized that Germany should not be dependent on a single supplier and should avoid situations where prices are “dictated.”

Heinisch is involved in developing the energy policy of the future ruling coalition consisting of the CDU, CSU, and SPD.

On the other hand, Free Democratic Party (FDP) Member of Parliament Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann claimed that the CDU is “already making efforts” to resume natural gas imports from Russia, undermining the country’s hard-won energy independence from Russia.

However, there are those within the CDU who do not want such cooperation to resume.

Party member Ruprecht Polenz said, “Vladimir Putin’s Russia can never be trusted again, and Donald Trump has shaken confidence in America. Therefore, the coalition agreement should rule out the reactivation of the Nord Stream pipeline.”

CDU foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter also criticized this step.

Kiesewetter said, “Those who have always opposed sanctions, those who want Nord Stream to work again and want to pounce on cheap Russian gas again, those who do not care about the genocide suffered by the Ukrainian people, each of them would be extremely pleased with such a rapprochement.”

In addition, SPD Member of Parliament Michael Roth stated that Bareiss’s proposal was an inappropriate signal at the wrong time, coming from someone who had “obviously learned nothing from recent history.”

The German Ministry of Economy, led by Robert Habeck of the Green Party, stated that Nord Stream 2 has not been approved and has not received legal approval, and “there is no question of operating it at the moment.”

The party itself described Bareiss’s statement as “scandalous,” saying, “If Germany starts buying gas from Russia again, it would mean rewarding President Vladimir Putin for his war of aggression.”

Sources speaking to Bild newspaper previously reported that Richard Grenell, the former US Ambassador to Berlin and currently Trump’s special envoy, had traveled unofficially to Switzerland a number of times to discuss the commissioning of Nord Stream 2.

The headquarters of Nord Stream 2 AG, the operator of the pipeline, is located in this country.

The sources claimed that the American side wanted to mediate the supply of Russian gas to Germany, but only at the level of private companies.

Prior to this, sources interviewed by the Financial Times had said that Matthias Warnig, the former CEO of Nord Stream 2 AG, was trying to reactivate Nord Stream 2 with the help of an American investor consortium that had drafted an agreement with Gazprom if sanctions were lifted.

A former senior US official familiar with the matter said, “The US will say, ‘Russia can be trusted now because there are reliable Americans involved.'”

The official added that if everything goes well, American investors will start making money “without doing anything.”

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Europe plans for US absence in NATO with 5-10 year strategy

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Europe’s major military powers are formulating plans to assume greater responsibility for the continent’s defense, reducing reliance on the United States.

According to a report in the Financial Times (FT), these discussions are driven by fears of a unilateral US withdrawal from NATO, exacerbated by repeated threats from former President Donald Trump to weaken or abandon the transatlantic alliance. The aim is to avoid the chaos that such a withdrawal could cause.

Four European officials familiar with the matter indicated that Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the Scandinavian countries are among those engaged in these informal discussions.

The FT reports that their objective is to devise a plan that shifts the financial and military burden towards European capitals. The intention is to present this plan to the US before NATO’s annual leaders’ summit in The Hague in June.

The proposal would include firm commitments from Europe to increase defense spending and enhance military capabilities, with the goal of persuading Trump to accept a gradual handover that would allow the US to focus more on Asia.

Since Trump’s election, countries such as Germany, France, and the UK have moved to increase defense spending or accelerate already planned increases. The EU has also launched initiatives to boost military investments among its member states.

Officials estimate that it would take approximately 5 to 10 years of increased spending to elevate Europe’s capabilities to a level where they could replace most US competencies, excluding US nuclear deterrence.

One source stated, “Increasing spending is our only leverage: burden-sharing and moving away from dependence on the US. We are beginning these discussions, but the task is so enormous that many are overwhelmed by its magnitude.”

While US diplomats have assured their European counterparts that Trump will remain committed to NATO membership and Article 5’s mutual defense clause, many European capitals worry that the White House might rapidly reduce troop or equipment deployments or withdraw from NATO’s joint missions.

Officials noted that some capitals are hesitant to participate in burden-sharing talks, fearing it might encourage the US to act more quickly, while others believe that despite Trump’s rhetoric, he does not intend to make significant changes to the US presence in Europe.

Others are skeptical that the Trump administration, given its unpredictable nature, would even agree to a structured process.

One official questioned, “You need an agreement with the Americans, and it’s not clear whether they will be willing to do that. Can you even trust that they would stick to an agreement?”

Officials highlight ongoing and regular discussions, led by France and Britain, about establishing a “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine in its war against Russia and to invest in European defense.

These discussions among more than ten European defense powers do not include the US.

When asked what a European pillar within NATO would mean and whether it is feasible, a senior Western official responded, “We are seeing it now: the UK and France are taking the initiative [on a guarantee force for Ukraine] without the Americans.”

NATO officials argue that maintaining the alliance with less or no US involvement is much simpler than creating a new structure, given the difficulty of recreating or renegotiating the existing military plans, capability targets, rules, command structure, and Article 5 for the continent’s defense.

Officials stated that for Europe’s core defense, the UK and other Atlantic maritime powers, the Scandinavian countries for the north of the continent, and Türkiye for the southeast defense will always be needed.

Marion Messmer, a research fellow in international security at Chatham House, noted, “Even without the US, NATO provides a structure for security cooperation in Europe. There are aspects that would need to be replaced if the US were to leave. But it provides a framework and infrastructure that Europeans are really familiar with. It does so much of the work that you would have to do from scratch if you were just setting up a different type of structure for just European members.”

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Scholz comments on İmamoğlu’s detention

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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made a statement regarding the detention of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.

According to DW Türkçe, Scholz, speaking at the beginning of the summit that brought EU leaders together in Brussels on Thursday, said, “Allow me to address an issue that is very important to me on a current occasion. In recent years, we have made great efforts to further develop relations between Europe and Türkiye. In this context, the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, a centrally important opposition politician, is a very, very bad sign.”

“This development is upsetting for Turkish democracy as well as for the relations between Europe and Türkiye,” Scholz said, calling on Türkiye to allow a policy where “the opposition and the government are in competition” and “the opposition is not held accountable in the judiciary.”

Scholz later shared these words in English on his personal social media account.

Yesterday, the German Foreign Ministry also stated about the detention of İmamoğlu and his colleagues, “It is a heavy blow to democracy in Türkiye. Protecting the rights of the people’s elected representatives is an important part of supporting the rule of law.”

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