Middle East
Behind the scenes of the Gaza bombings
The Netanyahu government, criticized for losing its deterrence due to anti-government protests and the normalization process with Iran, aims with the bombing of Gaza to improve its “image” and revive its coalition on the verge of disintegration before the critical budget vote.
Tensions are escalating following Israel’s airstrikes targeting three leaders of the Islamic Jihad Movement. Rockets are being fired from Gaza in response to Israeli attacks. Truce talks have not yet yielded a positive result. why did the Israeli government launch these attacks, which have lasted for two days and bring the risk of all-out war?
On Tuesday, Israel killed three prominent leaders of the Al-Quds Brigades, the military wing of the Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, along with their families. The Israeli military attacks on the Gaza Strip under blockade killed fifteen people, including children, and wounded 22 others. Islamic Jihad has threatened to target the Jewish settlement of Dotan in the occupied West Bank as retaliation for the assault. While the Israeli army continues attacking the Gaza Strip, Palestinian groups have been reacting to these attacks with rocket fire. The number of people killed in the Israeli attacks increased to 25, while 76 people were injured. In a statement made by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), it was stated that 333 of the 469 rockets launched from Gaza crossed into Israel and 107 of them fell short in the Gaza Strip. No information was shared about the remaining 29 rockets. It was reported that the air defense system intercepted 153 rockets, while some rockets hit settlements and caused material damage.
Targeted by Israeli attacks, the Islamic Jihad announced that if Israel continues to bomb houses in the region, retaliatory attacks will be organized in Tel Aviv and the interior of Israel. For its part, Hamas said that the rockets fired from the Gaza Strip into Israel were part of the resistance forces’ unified response to the Israeli attacks. In a written statement, Hamas spokesperson Abdullatif al-Qanoo said, “The joint attacks organized by the resistance forces are part of the process of responding to the massacre carried out by the occupation forces.” Emphasizing that Israel is responsible for the repercussions of its escalating attacks against the Palestinian people, Kanoo said that Israel will pay for its actions.
Why now?
The process that led Israel to these reckless attacks was triggered in early May. Following the death of Palestinian prisoner Khader Adnan on May 2 after 87 days of hunger strike in prison, more than 30 rockets targeting Israel were fired from the Gaza Strip. Israel retaliated by bombing Gaza. One Palestinian was killed and 5 Palestinians were injured in the attacks of Israeli warplanes. Immediately after the airstrikes, a truce was reached between Israel and armed groups in the Gaza Strip on May 3. Reached in one day, the ceasefire lit the criticism that “Israel has no deterrence” already existed in the country shaken by domestic political debates.
The argument that the nationwide protests over the Netanyahu-led government’s judicial reform emboldened Israel’s “enemies” was a critique that had been voiced since the anti-government protests began.
Moreover, Israel’s “sworn enemy” Iran’s normalization process with potential allies of Tel Aviv and the progress it has made in its nuclear program have set alarm bells ringing. Having been criticized for bringing the country to the brink of civil war as the “enemy” continued its advance, Netanyahu announced a ceasefire within 24 hours of the tension in early May, prompting criticism not only from the opposition but also from within the government and even from his own Likud party.
“In order to restore deterrence, we should have woken up this morning and heard how many terrorists were eliminated tonight in attacks,” Likud MP Danny Danon said on Twitter. Almog Cohen, a member of the far-right Israeli Jewish Power party, also posted on social media, “The excuses are over. Now is the time to strike hard at those who seek to harm us.” The Jewish Power Party, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, announced a boycott of the Israeli parliament sessions.
‘Israel’s deterrence capacity has eroded’
In an analysis published in early May, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), which reflects the views of Israel’s military bureaucracy, stated that “These operations against Israel, coupled with a series of prior incidents, have combined to erode Israel’s deterrence capabilities vis-à-vis Hezbollah, which is working tirelessly to improve the rules of the game within the framework of the deterrence equation that has evolved in the aftermath of the Second Lebanon War.” The following as indicators of this erosion is listed:
- Hezbollah’s claim that over the past two years, its activities have forced Israel to reduce its operations in Lebanese airspace
- Hezbollah operatives expanding their presence at observation posts along the border with Israel
- Clashes with Israeli forces along the border
- The signing of the maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon in October 2022, which Nasrallah claimed was a victory for Hezbollah
The analysis noted that Hezbollah – like the other members of the axis – sees the internal Israeli dispute over the constitutional crisis and the widespread protests against the Israeli government, as an expression of Israel’s inherent weakness, and that “the false narrative that Nasrallah has spun, especially over the past 12 months and that has come to the fore in his speeches, is, it seems, the reason for the excessive daring that he has displayed during recent events.”
The analysis offered the following thoughts on what Israel should do: “In any case, recent events indicate that Israel’s deterrence vis-à-vis Hezbollah and its partners in the axis of resistance is eroding. Under these circumstances, Israel’s political leadership must launch a deep and thorough discussion with the security establishment in order to formulate a strategy for bolstering deterrence with Hezbollah, which is the vanguard of the broader axis, and which currently poses the greatest conventional threat to Israeli security. It appears that a military operation against Hezbollah is necessary to make it absolutely clear to the organization that it will be made to pay a heavy price for continued provocation and to prevent a situation in which terror attacks from Lebanon, including rocket fire by Hamas, become routine. Israel faces a complex challenge: how to bolster its deterrence against Hezbollah and Hamas, without escalating the situation and risking all-out war. Israel has the scope to operate, and it must select its preferred course of action and timing – and must ready itself for potential ramifications.”
A move to save the coalition
Criticism from the opposition about the erosion of deterrence is an important reason for these latest attacks, but more critical for Netanyahu is the intra-coalition dispute. In particular, the announcement by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir that he will boycott parliamentary sessions due to the ceasefire is extremely significant since Netanyahu has to get the 2023-2024 budget passed by the end of this month. If the budget is not ratified by May 29, the government will automatically fall and early elections will be called. Therefore, Ben-Gvir’s announcement to boycott the parliamentary sessions is not a trump card that Netanyahu can ignore. And Ben-Gvir is not the only coalition partner using the budget vote as leverage. United Torah Judaism is pushing the government to take steps to exempt Haredis from conscription until the end of this month. The widespread attacks on Gaza have ended Ben-Gvir’s boycott of the Knesset, while also causing other far-right coalition partners to soften their demands and rally around Netanyahu against the enemy. In sum, ahead of the crucial budget vote, Netanyahu has repaired the cracks in his coalition thanks to the Gaza attacks.
Zvi Bar’el, a columnist for the left-wing Haaretz newspaper, one of Israel’s long-established publications, makes this observation in an article: “The deaths in Gaza brought Israel’s coalition back to life.”
An editorial in the same newspaper made the same observation. “The Gaza assassinations were all about Israeli politics,” the editorial reads, “…the government was severely criticized by some of the public and many politicians for its ‘weak response,’ ‘disgraceful policy of containment’ and failure to crush the ‘terrorist infrastructure’ when it had a chance. A right-wing government that tends toward extremes was suddenly seen as wretched and spineless, weaker than the “leftist” government that preceded it. The one who was the fastest to understand how serious the damage was to the government’s image was one of its most senior figures, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. He not only demanded that he be part of the security deliberations that he has not been invited to but also that the government act with more aggression to dispense with the awful policy of ‘restraint’ and strike the leaders of terror organizations.”
“Ben-Gvir was not content with using inflammatory rhetoric. He boycotted the cabinet and Knesset, threatening the coalition’s integrity and even risking the collapse of the government altogether, just as the Knesset vote on the budget is approaching. Ben-Gvir’s threats made it clear to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the last ‘round’ of fighting was in need of a correction. Accordingly, the Israel Defense Forces and the Shin Bet security service were asked to come up with some proposals, which resulted in a decision to assassinate three top Islamic Jihad officials.”
Hamas not a direct target
The fact that Israel has refrained from directly targeting Hamas reveals that it does not want an all-out war. Indeed, in his national address today, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu underscored the intensive attacks on Islamic Jihad targets in Gaza. However, he also said that the “military campaign is not over” and that they are continuing to attack Gaza vigorously. Netanyahu said that “new technological advances, operational skills and initiative have created a new balance” and that “they will choose when and where to attack the terrorists, and they have the priority to choose.”
Talks deadlocked
On the other hand, it was stated that the truce talks between Israel and Palestinian have stalled. According to AA, a Palestinian source close to the talks between Israeli and the Palestinian groups said that the Palestinian side asked Israel to stop its “assassination policy”, which Tel Aviv rejected. The source added that ceasefire talks continue through Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations (UN).
Middle East
Iran to receive hundreds of Chinese shoulder-fired missiles within weeks, sources say
Iran is expected to receive its first shipment of 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air defense missile systems within weeks as it seeks to rebuild its air defenses amid an ongoing war with the US.
Three sources with knowledge of the agreement disclosed the information to Reuters.
Valued at between $60 million and $70 million, the purchase represents one of Tehran’s largest known efforts to bolster its short-range air defense capabilities since the outbreak of hostilities with the US and Israel.
According to the sources, the contract covers between 300 and 400 man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, including Chinese-made QW-12 and FN-16 missiles.
The deal was signed with Hong Kong-based Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, which reportedly acted as an intermediary between the Iranian side and the Chinese supplier.
Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not yet responded to a request for comment from Reuters regarding the information provided by the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued the following statement:
“The relevant reports are completely baseless. China has consistently played a role in promoting peace and bringing an end to the conflict.”
Beijing-based Zhong Qing Bao Shang Group, the parent company of Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent on Tuesday.
Iran needs to rearm following months of conflict during which the US and Israel struck facilities tied to its missile, drone, and air defense programs. Tehran responded to those attacks with salvos of ballistic missiles and drones.
The fighting demonstrated the difficulty of defending static military and strategic installations against advanced fighter jets and precision-guided munitions.
Washington abruptly halted its two-week bombing campaign on Saturday. However, US President Donald Trump said attacks would resume if negotiations aimed at ending the five-month war—which has theoretically been under a ceasefire since April—fail.
The delivery of hundreds of MANPADS systems would significantly expand Iran’s inventory of short-range air defense weapons.
However, the sources cautioned that while the agreement has been signed, the delivery schedule, quantities, and other operational details remain subject to change.
Under the plan agreed upon by the parties, initial deliveries will be transported by air from the western Chinese city of Urumqi before being routed through Pakistan to Iran. The sources did not clarify whether transport following the transit through Pakistan would occur by air or land.
The Pakistani military’s public relations wing, ISPR, said in a statement:
“Allegations that Pakistan is playing a role in the supply of air defense weapons from China to Iran are completely fabricated and contrary to fact.”
Two Western intelligence sources and an Iranian official said Tehran is also exploring the option of using overland routes to transport Chinese-made military equipment and dual-use components more covertly, reducing the risk of shipments being intercepted.
The procurement process underscores how the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to rely on a combination of domestic arms production and foreign suppliers, despite years of sanctions and defense import restrictions.
Reuters previously reported, citing individuals familiar with the discussions, that Iran was close to concluding a separate deal to purchase anti-ship cruise missiles from China. Reuters was unable to confirm whether that agreement was finalized.
Middle East
Saudi crude exports from Yanbu plunge 40% as Yemeni strikes force reliance on costlier routes
Crude oil shipments from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast have dropped by 40% over the past few days.
According to data published on July 26 by maritime intelligence firm Vortexa, the Riyadh administration has begun utilizing the SUMED pipeline in Egypt and alternative transit routes in an effort to bypass the naval blockade declared by forces aligned with Sanaa.
The sharp decline in shipment volumes follows retaliatory operations and the enforcement of a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia by the Yemeni Armed Forces, operating under the Ansarallah movement.
Riyadh has maintained military strikes and blockade measures against Yemen for nearly 12 years.
A Sunday report by maritime intelligence firm Windward, drawing on Vortexa data, noted that Saudi Arabia has established a new logistical framework to maintain its export flows. “Saudi Arabia has created an alternative export route functioning via the SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope,” the report stated. The agency reported that this shift has driven up transportation costs by approximately $9 per barrel.
The market analysis report provided the following assessment regarding the operational mechanics of the transition:
“Saudi crude shipments have not stopped; they have been split into two distinct routes. Tankers berthing at Yanbu Port are now operating with their AIS signals completely turned off. Vessels are concealing their locations to avoid inclusion on Ansarallah’s target list. Saudi Arabia has established an alternative export route operating via the SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope. Although this route increases costs and transit times, it demonstrates that the market is capable of adapting to changing conditions.”
Saudi Arabia previously activated a similar alternative route via Yanbu during the initial phase of the US-Israel war, following Iran’s first blockade measures directed at the Strait of Hormuz.
At the time of the Windward report’s release, satellite imagery published by SoarAtlas revealed the ongoing situation at Saudi Aramco’s Jizan Oil Refinery. Massive fires triggered by attacks carried out by the Yemeni Armed Forces were shown to be persisting at the $12 billion facility. Images captured on Saturday documented dense black smoke continuing to billow from a giant oil storage tank at the site.
The Yemeni Armed Forces publicly announced their latest military operations against Saudi Arabia on July 25. They stated that the strikes were executed in response to the Saudi-led coalition resuming aerial bombardments against the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah.
An official statement issued by the Yemeni military under the Ansarallah-led administration provided the following details:
“In response to this overt and criminal aggression, the Yemeni Armed Forces carried out two specialized military operations. In the first operation, sensitive Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan were targeted with dozens of ballistic missiles and drones. In the second operation, sensitive Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu were struck using ballistic and cruise missiles alongside unmanned aerial vehicles.”
Spokespersons for the Yemeni military emphasized that the strikes were “precise” and “direct,” while residents in the city of Yanbu were reported to have heard explosions over the weekend. In the early hours of Saturday, Saudi airstrikes had targeted fuel storage facilities and telecommunications infrastructure in Hodeidah.
Mahdi al-Mashat, President of the Ansarallah Supreme Political Council, issued a warning to the Saudi Arabian leadership in a statement on July 27. “We say to the Saudi enemy that those offering you false hopes will be of no avail. Anything short of an end to the aggression and the complete lifting of the blockade is mere fantasy,” al-Mashat said.
In line with their naval blockade decision, the Yemeni Armed Forces have also targeted two Saudi oil tankers with missiles in recent days. The Sanaa administration officially initiated its maritime restrictions on July 20 under the stated principle of “a blockade for a blockade.”
This latest phase of heightened tension began in early July when Saudi Arabia launched an airstrike targeting Sanaa International Airport for the first time after a prolonged hiatus. Yemeni forces responded by striking Abha Airport in Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones. The attack marked the Yemeni military’s first direct retaliatory strike inside Saudi territory since 2021.
The Saudi-led coalition initially intervened in Yemen in 2015 after Ansarallah took control of the capital, Sanaa, and ousted the Riyadh-backed government. The United Arab Emirates joined as a principal coalition partner, while the UK, the US, and Israel provided logistical support.
During peace negotiations conducted between Saudi Arabia and Yemen in 2023, the parties came close to a final agreement before talks stalled. Nevertheless, those contacts effectively served to freeze large-scale combat operations for an extended period.
The air and sea blockade enforced by Saudi Arabia for over a decade has deepened the humanitarian crisis, particularly due to commercial flight restrictions imposed on Sanaa International Airport. These measures have prevented critically ill and injured civilians from traveling abroad for medical treatment, while the coalition’s military intervention has driven widespread famine and resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. Prior to Riyadh’s latest airstrikes, Yemeni forces had been conducting a general mobilization aimed at expelling coalition elements from the country.
Middle East
Pentagon faces severe budget crunch as Middle East operational costs drain key military funds
The US Department of Defense is facing a severe budgetary shortfall driven by the escalation of the war with Iran, according to current and former American officials cited by The Washington Post.
Officials noted that funding for several critical areas could be completely exhausted in the coming weeks. Budgets allocated for this year’s operations of the Navy and Air Force, which have deployed warships and aviation assets to the Middle East, are projected to run out by the end of July.
To cover the funding deficit expected before the start of fiscal year 2027 on October 1, the Pentagon is internally redirecting its budgetary resources. Under this approach, military exercises and training sessions designed to maintain troop combat readiness are being scaled back or canceled. Additionally, funds originally allocated for the maintenance and repair of military equipment and facilities are being transferred to operational expenses.
In recent weeks, the Department of Defense requested permission from Congress to shift $4.3 billion—initially allocated for personnel training and weapons procurement—to cover emergency requirements. However, no decision has yet been made regarding this request.
The White House has also requested that Congress allocate $67 billion in emergency supplemental funding to cover military expenditures. Despite this, the House of Representatives plans to begin a one-month recess on Thursday, which will delay any decision on the funding for at least several weeks.
“Everyone needs to look at this situation and shake off the complacency,” said Representative Pat Harrigan, a Republican from North Carolina, commenting on the development.
Pentagon Spokesperson Sean Parnell emphasized the critical importance of defense funding, stating that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will do everything necessary to maintain the combat readiness of the armed forces.
Secretary Hegseth and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, are scheduled to present the justification for the funding allocation at an upcoming hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. Russell Vought, the Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, is also among those scheduled to testify before the committee.
Vought stated last month that the cost of the war had reached approximately $30 billion. However, this White House calculation did not include the cost of rebuilding and repairing US bases damaged as a result of Iranian attacks in the Middle East.
Current and former officials warn that if Congress fails to act, military leadership will soon be forced to make even deeper compromises.
In closed-door discussions, Pentagon officials are expressing more profound anxieties. They emphasize that supplemental funding is urgently required to replenish munitions stockpiles, which are vital for deterring adversaries such as Russia and China.
The US defense budget for this year stands at approximately $1 trillion. This figure includes $150 billion in one-time funding approved by Congress last year for various priority goals, ranging from designing advanced weapons systems to stimulating the domestic defense industry. Meanwhile, the Donald Trump administration has requested a $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027.
Internal Pentagon assessments indicate that when accounting for base repairs, the replacement of destroyed aircraft, and the replenishment of munitions stockpiles, the total cost of the Iran war could rise to between $80 billion and $100 billion, according to reporting by NBC. Sources state that the repair costs for US military facilities in Bahrain alone could reach $1 billion.
Senators are expected to question Hegseth on the collapse of the ceasefire, rising war costs, and the American service members who lost their lives in Jordan, Bloomberg reported.
-
America2 weeks agoUS agricultural superpower status at risk as trade wars shift global markets to Brazil
-
America2 weeks agoUS controls $13 billion in Venezuelan oil revenues with little transparency, raising congressional concerns
-
Europe2 weeks agoUS secures multi-billion-dollar energy and AI deals at Three Seas summit in Dubrovnik
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoPalantir CEO Alex Karp says he would not vote for ‘pro-Russian’ AfD in Germany
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoWorld Bank warns US-Iran conflict could slash global growth to 1.3% as inflation looms
-
Middle East2 weeks agoPentagon faces severe budget crunch as Middle East operational costs drain key military funds
-
Europe2 weeks agoGermany accelerates African energy diplomatic push to secure natural gas and green hydrogen
-
America2 weeks agoAIPAC cuts online donation links for Democrats after Israel aid vote
