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Beyond a handful of oil

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As the American occupation of Venezuela approaches quite openly, we are once again living and breathing stories of oil seizures.

When we say “story,” it is not exactly a fairy tale: The name at the head of the occupation operation, Donald Trump, states with great clarity that besides excuses like drugs, he wants to seize Venezuela’s oil. By “seizing,” he doesn’t just mean confiscating production; he also wants to prevent Venezuela from selling oil to “US adversaries.”(1)

According to OPEC, Venezuela possesses approximately 17% of global reserves, or 303 billion barrels; this means it ranks ahead of OPEC leader Saudi Arabia. According to the US Department of Energy, these reserves consist mostly of heavy oil in the Orinoco belt in central Venezuela, which makes crude oil production expensive.(2)

The US has the infrastructure suitable for this. Despite being the world’s largest oil producer, the US still imports large quantities of crude oil. Heavy oil is critically important for American refineries, especially those around the Gulf of Mexico. About 70 percent of American crude oil imports are heavy oil, and 60 percent of this comes from Canada, which has a similar “heaviness” to Venezuela.

On the other hand, a meaningful recovery in Venezuela requires time, large-scale infrastructure reconstruction, billions of dollars in capital, and the sustained participation of international oil companies. Since oil monopolies prioritize more competitive and lower-risk projects elsewhere, obtaining this level of commitment is currently quite difficult.(3)

Indeed, energy giants like Exxon and ConocoPhillips, including Chevron which currently holds a license waiver, are hesitant to re-enter Venezuela. For this reason alone, some argue that help should be sought from companies of “allied” countries, such as Eni, which is already operating in Venezuela.

Moreover, American oil monopolies already have drilling projects available in the Americas that can be extracted more cheaply. For instance, both Exxon and Chevron operate in Guyana, where Venezuela has a territorial dispute, and it is estimated that Exxon can produce there at a cost below $35 per barrel (Venezuela produces at $49 in the Orinoco region). Chevron is expected to produce oil in the Permian region for $37 to $44. ConocoPhillips’ investments in Canada project a cost of $42 per barrel. Therefore, reintroducing Venezuelan oil to international markets is not currently capable of causing the kind of price drop Trump claims.

Furthermore, even if progress could be made in “upstream” operations, Venezuela has been stagnating for some time in “midstream” and “downstream” sectors such as refining, transport, and distribution. In the country where refining capacity has remained constant for many years, capacity utilization has also been weak.

So how is it assumed that investment will flow into Venezuela and the oil industry will get back on its feet? Javier Blas from Bloomberg points out that the issue is not just Venezuelan oil, but American hegemony over oil reserves in the entire “Western Hemisphere” via the “Monroe Doctrine,” which was highlighted in the latest National Security Strategy (NSS). According to this calculation, when Canada, Mexico, and all of Latin America are included, the US captures 40 percent of the world’s entire oil production, gaining an invaluable asset against its rivals. It also gains the ability to set prices, a power once held by Arab countries and now by OPEC.

Energy prices are quite important for the predatory capital faction clustered around Trump. Access to new energy sources, including nuclear, is critical for Silicon Valley technology capital, which is investing heavily in data centers that will grow artificial intelligence. In this context, while companies like Microsoft invest in nuclear energy, American oil monopolies known as supermajors have taken action to provide energy to data centers; because natural gas, oil, and coal are still the three raw materials with the largest share in US primary energy production.

In December 2024, executives from Exxon and Chevron separately announced that their companies were preparing to enter the electricity sector. Oil companies, which usually generate electricity only for their own operations, will enter the broader electricity market at a time when demand is rising rapidly.

Rest assured, all of this will be accompanied by the plundering of nickel deposits in Venezuela, which have been found to be quite rich. Indeed, Axios counts AI companies among the winners of the so-called regime change in Venezuela. Venezuela is the richest source of critical minerals used in semiconductors that power AI data centers. According to Axios, if the US can use Venezuela instead of being dependent on China for these materials, it could get a step ahead in the AI race.

In fact, on Sunday aboard Air Force One, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick touched upon “mining opportunities” in Venezuela and said, “You have steel, you have minerals, you have all the critical minerals. They have a great history of mining, but that history has rusted.”

On the other hand, there is a not-so-small problem here: Even if the US frees itself from China in the supply of rare earth elements, the refining processes for these materials are done almost entirely in China. The US does not have such expertise, and acquiring it will likely take many years.

But beyond this, the financialization of both its oil and Venezuela’s debts seems much more appetizing, and this is where the main significance of Trump’s thuggery lies. Indeed, it appears that Wall Street had its eye on the “wealth” opportunities that regime change would create even before Maduro was abducted. According to Bloomberg, weeks before the invasion, Citigroup analysts predicted gains of up to 60% in the country’s bonds if Maduro were removed from office. At crowded conferences and seminars, other strategists voiced their opinions on the potential profit the new regime could offer holders of the country’s $60 billion in bonds. As pressure on Maduro mounted, traders flocked to bonds, sparking a rally:

“Investors, including American energy and shipping tycoon Harry Sargeant III, lobbied the Trump administration to create a more favorable business environment in Venezuela, highlighting the advantages for the US. Paul Singer’s Elliott Investment Management, along with a consortium of other investors, had been fighting for years for Venezuela’s most valuable foreign asset.”

In public markets, bondholders made gains of about $4 billion in a single day and saw hope for a restructuring that would yield further profits. According to the report, for private equity firms and energy investors, Donald Trump promised an even bigger prize by “pledging that the US would spend billions of dollars to fix Venezuela’s broken oil infrastructure.”

Among these promises, of course, are the receivables of companies nationalized during the Chavez era. ConocoPhillips has been trying to get approximately $12 billion in compensation for its seized assets for years. Hedge funds are looking for ways to invest in billions of dollars of financial claims linked to Venezuela. Venezuela is also considered indebted to many major companies after nationalizing assets in 2007. Following the 2017 default, the prospect of the country’s long-delayed debt restructuring is making the palms of private equity firms that buy and sell debt itch. Although Venezuela’s sovereign bond market is relatively popular, the opening of receivables and arbitration claims to financial markets is significant for American capital. This capital faction, however, sees the possibility of reviving Venezuela’s oil industry as an opportunity to pressure Venezuela to pay the debts of those who are creditors, particularly of the state oil company PDVSA.(4) After years of fruitless efforts to extract cash from the Maduro government, many companies have sold these international arbitration cases to specialized investors, including hedge funds.

Ben Cleary, partner and director at the $4 billion Tribeca Investment Partners, is sending a team of investors to Caracas to meet with potential partners and examine potential assets. US-based advisory firm Signum Global Advisors, which took investors to Ukraine last year as part of reconstruction efforts, is also planning a trip to Venezuela at the end of March. The group will consist of about 20 participants, comprised of multinational corporations and money managers.

Indeed, Bloomberg points out how Wall Street and private equity have become intertwined to reshape Venezuela through Trump’s aggressive move based on the claim of oil seizure. For example, a fund manager suggests that everything in Venezuela will depend on what kind of investments are made in the oil sector.

I would also like to remind you that asset managers invest heavily in oil monopolies. Just as the oil commodity itself is a financial product, oil monopolies are intertwined with financial markets. While asset managers like Brookfield and Blackstone are already investing in energy assets, sovereign wealth funds like the Saudi Public Investment Fund and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority have been looking for ways to channel their billions of dollars of investments into South America for years.

The financialization of sovereign debt linked to oil seizure and the rush of private equity means the “Ukrainization” of Venezuela; that is, transforming it into a colony of transnational (but in this instance, American) capital. In any case, there really is an “oil excuse” at play. But it is not as it is assumed to be.


(1) Economists Asdrubal Oliveros and Juan Palacios, in their book Sanctions in Venezuela, found that from 2023 to 2024, exports to the US, Spain, and India increased at the expense of China and Malaysia. In 2023, the first group received 34% of Venezuelan crude oil exports, while the second group received 51.6%. In 2024, these ratios were nearly reversed, becoming 56.2% and 26.8%, respectively.

(2) According to Bloomberg’s analysis, most Venezuelan crude oil is high-sulfur and heavy, meaning it is costly and technically difficult to transport and refine compared to light and sweet quality oil. To facilitate the transport and processing of this type of crude oil, it usually needs to be mixed with a diluent (such as condensate or naphtha). Furthermore, special refining equipment is necessary to refine this type of crude oil. Consequently, such heavy and sour crude oil trades at a significant discount compared to international benchmark prices. Additionally, the production of naphtha used in transporting heavy oil is heavily dependent on Russia, and as long as sanctions persist, making progress in naphtha imports seems unlikely. Last December, a tanker carrying naphtha from Russia to Venezuela turned back due to the Trump blockade.

(3) According to POLITICO, Rystad Energy stated in a client note that “approximately $53 billion in oil and gas upstream and infrastructure investment is required over the next 15 years to keep Venezuela’s crude oil production steady at 1.1 million barrels per day”: “Going above the 1.4 million [barrels per day] level is possible, but this will require steady investment of $8-9 billion annually from 2026 to 2040, in addition to ‘maintenance’ capital requirements.”

(4) Defaulted bonds issued by Venezuela and the state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela continued their gains on Tuesday following an increase of up to 35% on Monday. According to data compiled by Bloomberg based on the latest investor filings, holders of these bonds include some of the world’s largest asset managers, such as Fidelity Investments, BlackRock, and T. Rowe Price Group.

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Israel looks to Latin America as Isaac Accords seek to expand regional partnerships

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As ties between Israel and Latin American countries continue to deepen, the newly launched Isaac Accords are emerging as a framework for expanding cooperation across the region.

The initiative formed the backdrop to a panel discussion on opportunities for Israel in the Western Hemisphere at the 2026 JNS International Policy Summit in Jerusalem on Monday.

The panel, titled “The Coming Isaac Accords: Israel and Latin America,” brought together diplomats and regional experts to discuss developments that could encourage participation in the Isaac Accords, the strategic framework announced in April by Argentine President Javier Milei and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during Milei’s visit to Israel.

Moderated by JNS correspondent Etgar Lefkovits, the discussion featured Panama’s Ambassador to Israel Ezra Cohen, former US Ambassador to Costa Rica Fitzgerald Haney, and Leah Soibel, founder and CEO of Fuente Latina, which provides Middle East news coverage to Spanish-language media outlets.

Soibel said:

“What we need to understand is that the Isaac Accords have an impact that extends far beyond diplomacy. Twenty percent of the US population is Hispanic. By 2050, that figure is expected to reach 30% of the population. This is the demographic group with the lowest levels of antisemitic sentiment.”

The panel also celebrated the victory of pro-US and pro-Israel candidate Abelardo De La Espriella, who defeated his left-wing rival in Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday.

De La Espriella had made the restoration of relations with Israel and the relocation of his country’s embassy to Jerusalem central elements of his campaign platform.

Cohen said that when he looks at a map of Latin America, only four countries are currently governed by left-wing, anti-Israel administrations.

Referring to an earlier panel discussing what participants described as a bleak future for Jews in Europe, Cohen remarked: “When one window closes, another opens. Come to Latin America.”

Haney argued that “Israel’s friends keep winning” and predicted that “we are going to see a lot more positive developments coming out of Latin America.”

He said a colleague in Colombia had sent him a text message promising: “On August 7 at 5 p.m., we will restore relations with Israel.”

Haney noted that this was the date and time when Colombia’s new president is scheduled to take office and predicted that another announcement regarding the relocation of Colombia’s embassy to Jerusalem would follow.

He described Colombia as the latest in a series of Latin American countries turning toward Israel in pursuit of “shared values, shared prosperity and shared security.”

Haney also said that the Israel Allies Foundation, a pro-Israel advocacy group that works with lawmakers, would bring together representatives from 11 legislative bodies across Latin America in Buenos Aires over the weekend to sign a joint declaration of principles.

He noted that the organisation had successfully worked with Brazil’s legislature despite the position of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whom he described as anti-Israel.

According to Haney, Brazil’s legislature has developed a plan to deepen relations with Israel over the next nine months.

Soibel said that 12 Latin American countries had renewed or strengthened their friendships with Israel and that interest in Israel among Spanish-language content creators, influencers and journalists continues to grow. Her organisation has brought 300 non-Jewish Hispanic journalists to Israel.

The panel also highlighted the launch of a Panama-based Spanish-language edition of JNS. Soibel said the work of pro-Israel organisations remains vital because so few such groups operate in the region, while, in her words, “Iran, Qatar and Hezbollah are conducting propaganda campaigns in Spanish throughout Latin America.”

She continued:

“You could probably count on one hand, perhaps two, the number of organisations and leaders operating across the Spanish-speaking world. That makes this work extraordinarily strategic. Its impact is enormous. Israel and the Jewish people should invest more. There is a large Hispanic-Israeli population in Israel, and many of them were victims of the October 7 attacks. We have stories to tell. What we need now is investment and distribution channels to spread those messages and information.”

The panel concluded on an optimistic note, with participants expressing confidence that Latin America will become an increasingly important pillar of Israel’s global diplomatic strategy in the years ahead.

Milei and Netanyahu launch new accord

Argentine President Javier Milei and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the launch of the Isaac Accords last Saturday.

The initiative establishes a new strategic framework aimed at strengthening cooperation among Argentina, Israel and like-minded partners across the Western Hemisphere, described as “the descendants of Isaac and nations rooted in the Judeo-Christian tradition,” in defence of freedom and democracy and in the fight against terrorism, antisemitism and drug trafficking.

Participating countries will seek to strengthen coordination against what the agreement describes as terrorist organisations, with particular emphasis on “Iran’s efforts to expand terrorist networks and operational presence throughout the Western Hemisphere.”

The initiative also seeks to promote coordination and alignment in international forums while creating a framework for expanded cooperation in innovation, technology, trade and economic openness.

Speaking alongside Netanyahu at a joint press conference, Milei said:

“We expressed our unwavering support for the United States and Israel in their struggle against terrorism and the Iranian regime, not only because it is the right thing to do, but also because our countries are united through shared suffering.”

Milei referred to the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires and the 1994 attack on the AMIA Jewish community centre.

Although Argentine courts have attributed both attacks to Iran, Tehran has consistently denied any involvement.

Netanyahu praised the Argentine leader for demonstrating what he called “moral clarity” by standing with Israel and said he hoped other Latin American governments would join the Isaac Accords, which both leaders described as being inspired by the Abraham Accords.

The Abraham Accords, brokered by Washington in 2020, triggered a wave of normalisation in Arab-Israeli diplomatic relations.

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee attended the signing ceremony and described Milei and Netanyahu as “President Trump’s two closest friends.”

Huckabee added: “I do not think there are two other world leaders whom our president respects as much and with whom he has such a personal relationship.”

During the visit, the two sides also announced the launch of the first direct commercial flights between Buenos Aires and Tel Aviv, scheduled to begin in November.

Milei said the new route would create an “unbreakable bond” between the two countries and reiterated his intention to relocate Argentina’s embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

“As soon as circumstances permit, we once again reaffirm our commitment to moving the Argentine embassy to Jerusalem,” he said.

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Iran team leaves thank-you message in Los Angeles locker room after World Cup draw

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Iran’s national football team left a message in its locker room at SoFi Stadium, thanking Los Angeles for its hospitality during the World Cup.

The players said they were leaving the city with honor after keeping their hopes of reaching the knockout stage alive with a 0-0 draw against Belgium.

In the handwritten note, published by the Iran Football Federation, the team wrote:

“From the ancient land of Persia thousands of years ago to the civilized Iran of today, the spirit of Iran remains alive and unshaken. Los Angeles, thank you for your hospitality. We arrived in Los Angeles with pride, competed with honor and leave with dignity.”

The note also thanked Iranian supporters who gave their “hearts, voices and souls” to the team throughout its two matches and concluded with a call for peace, respect and friendship among all nations.

Los Angeles hosted both of Iran’s Group G matches, while the team returned to its training base in Tijuana between games.

Iran has been based in Tijuana throughout the tournament and has had to travel back and forth to the United States for matches because of restrictions related to its stay in the country. Entry bans were also imposed on some members of the national team’s coaching staff and officials.

US authorities said the team’s travel arrangements remain under review, while discussions continue over the possible easing of some restrictions.

Iran head coach Emir Ghalenoei has repeatedly criticized the travel restrictions, saying his squad has faced challenges that no other team in the tournament has been required to endure.

After drawing 2-2 with New Zealand in its opening match at SoFi Stadium, Iran will play its final Group G match against Egypt in Seattle.

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Colombia’s de la Espriella claims narrow presidential victory in runoff election

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The first results from Colombia’s presidential runoff election showed that right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, backed by Donald Trump, had narrowly won the vote.

The victory of de la Espriella, who has no prior political experience, signals a fundamental shift in the government’s approach to tackling the country’s long-running internal armed conflict and rising violence.

Throughout the campaign, de la Espriella pledged to intensify military pressure on illegal armed groups, drug trafficking networks and criminal organizations. He succeeded in defeating left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda, a close ally of incumbent President Gustavo Petro.

Speaking after the initial results were released, de la Espriella said: “Today marks the beginning of a new era for our country. This era is built on the free and democratic will of millions of citizens who chose to believe in a great, secure, prosperous Colombia full of opportunities.”

Cepeda says he will await official results

According to the preliminary count, with more than 99% of ballots tallied in the runoff election, de la Espriella secured approximately 49.7% of the vote, while Cepeda received 48.7%.

Cepeda, who has not yet conceded defeat, said the preliminary results were neither official nor binding.

“When the official count is completed, the final results are known and the necessary verification procedures are finished, we will recognize the official outcome produced by that process,” Cepeda said.

Reuters reported that the verification process showed very little variation from the preliminary counts recorded during the first round of voting on May 31.

De la Espriella, who grew up in Colombia’s Caribbean region, drew particularly strong support from that part of the country. Addressing a large crowd gathered in the coastal city of Barranquilla after the first results emerged, de la Espriella, who has adopted the nickname “El Tigre” (The Tiger), declared: “Tonight is the beginning of a new story for the nation. Tonight a new era begins, a change of order begins.”

He said he would govern for all Colombians, including those who voted for his opponent, and pledged loyalty to and protection of Colombia’s 1991 constitution.

At celebrations in Barranquilla, supporters wore Colombia’s yellow national football jersey and waved Colombian flags.

With images of de la Espriella projected behind the stage, supporters chanted “Stand firm for the homeland” and “Petro out!” as fireworks lit the sky. Some supporters wore hats bearing the slogan “Make Colombia Great Again,” echoing those worn by supporters of US President Donald Trump.

Trump reacted to the results in a Truth Social post, writing: “BIG won!”

One supporter, Patricia, told reporters: “We are tired of the murders in this country and of this government’s bureaucracy. Now we finally have a president from the coastal region.”

Another supporter said: “We are proud of the Tiger. We hope he transforms the country and, above all, creates a new nation where we will have jobs and greater security.”

Supporters of Cepeda, who narrowly lost the election, also voiced concerns on the streets of Barranquilla.

Catalina La Grande, a student and activist who supports Cepeda, told the BBC: “There is a visible sense of unease in the air. Such a narrow margin worries us because it reflects how divided the country is and the enormous challenges we face in defending democracy, peace and human rights.”

Another young voter backing Cepeda, Maria, said the results showed a divided country but noted that the public had remained peaceful.

“Given the level of polarization we are experiencing, the absence of violence in the streets is a positive development,” she said.

The sharp divisions between the candidates have fueled concerns that unrest could emerge if some opposition groups refuse to accept the outcome.

Late on Sunday night, clashes were reported between protesters and police in Cali, Colombia’s third-largest city. Demonstrators reportedly burned US flags, while police used tear gas to disperse large crowds angered by de la Espriella’s victory.

President Gustavo Petro is also reported to be considering challenging the result. In a post on X, Petro said that based on the preliminary count, “no one can be declared president” and alleged that the security of some polling stations had been compromised. He called for an audit of the voting software but provided no evidence to support the claims.

Who is Abelardo de la Espriella?

De la Espriella, who has no political background, is a lawyer and businessman. During his legal career, he represented clients including Alex Saab, an ally of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro who has faced money laundering charges in the US, and David Murcia Guzman, one of Colombia’s most notorious fraudsters.

De la Espriella says he handled those cases in his capacity as a defense attorney.

Often compared to El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele because of his security policies and distinctive beard, de la Espriella and his supporters frequently wear Colombia’s national football jersey at rallies and on social media. Critics accuse him of politicizing the national team shirt.

He is also known for regularly addressing campaign crowds from behind bulletproof glass panels.

Colombia’s internal armed conflict has persisted for decades, but violence has intensified in recent years. Armed groups and criminal organizations, including dissident factions of the FARC, the ELN and the Clan del Golfo, have doubled their membership over the past five years.

Competition for control of lucrative cocaine trafficking routes and illegal mining operations has further escalated the violence. Fighting along the Colombia-Venezuela border last year displaced tens of thousands of people. Cocaine production in the world’s largest cocaine-producing country has reached record levels.

Critics of President Petro argue that his “total peace” strategy, which prioritizes negotiations with armed groups, has failed, claiming that such groups have used ceasefire arrangements to expand their territorial control and influence.

De la Espriella has pledged to cancel all negotiations with illegal armed groups and increase military pressure to restore order.

As part of that agenda, he has promised closer cooperation with the US, the construction of massive prisons in Colombia’s forests, a smaller state apparatus and reforms to the healthcare system.

Having lived and worked in Miami for many years, de la Espriella has held US citizenship since 2023. During the election campaign, he received support from Donald Trump, who said de la Espriella would “stop illegal migration, fight crime and drugs, and restore law and order.”

Before the election, Trump also said de la Espriella would feel “the full support and strength of the United States” behind him.

Although Colombia has historically been one of Washington’s closest allies in the region, relations have become strained in recent years due to sharp disagreements between President Trump and President Petro over migration policy, tariffs and military intervention in Latin America.

De la Espriella’s election also aligns with a broader trend across Latin America, where security concerns have pushed politics to the right. His victory was welcomed by other conservative leaders across the region.

Argentine President Javier Milei said Colombians had “chosen the path of economic freedom, prosperity and uncompromising security” and had declared that enough was enough to transnational organized crime and drug trafficking.

Chile’s José Antonio Kast said: “A new era of freedom is beginning for Colombia, one that will allow the country to regain security and prosperity.”

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