Middle East
Ceasefire talks deadlocked: Iran raises hand in retaliation
US and Israeli officials say indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire and prisoner swap deal are ‘on the verge of collapse’ and that there is no alternative agreement. Iran has upped the stakes by raising the possibility of a ground attack in retaliation against Israel, which it has suspended over the ceasefire talks.
According to the US daily Politico, two unnamed American and two Israeli officials said that negotiations brokered by the US, Qatar and Egypt had reached an impasse.
The officials said the current proposal was ‘the strongest deal yet’, tailored to the demands of both Hamas and Israel.
Noting that US President Joe Biden’s administration had been more optimistic about a deal ‘just a few weeks ago’, the officials said the American side was ‘increasingly concerned’ that the current proposal would fail, like its predecessors, because of disagreements between Hamas and Israel.
The New York Times (NYT) reports that some officials say US efforts to broker a ceasefire in Gaza have fallen short on key points.
According to the paper, “Israeli and Hamas officials” with knowledge of US “proposals” and negotiations for a ceasefire spoke to the NYT. Despite US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s claim that Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu had accepted his offer of a deal, the officials said key disagreements between Hamas and Israel remained unresolved.
The officials said the US initiatives had fallen short on key points and that the US proposal included the Israeli army remaining on Gaza’s border with Egypt.
Under the new US proposal, Israeli troops would continue to patrol part of this border area, albeit in reduced numbers, the officials said, adding that during the negotiations in the Qatari capital Doha, US officials asked for a delay in negotiations on Israel’s demand that displaced Palestinians returning to northern Gaza be subjected to ‘weapons checks’.
Negotiations between Israel and Hamas took place in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on 15-16 August, with the aim of reaching a prisoner exchange and a ceasefire in Gaza.
US Secretary of State Blinken, who arrived in Israel on 19 August to discuss the ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations in Gaza, told a press conference that ‘Israel accepted the ceasefire proposal that was on the table’, but declined to reveal the terms of the draft.
Blinken claimed that Netanyahu, who had announced that he would insist on preconditions for a deal, had ‘accepted the new proposal that closes the gaps’.
‘There is a possibility of an Iranian attack if there is no agreement’
Netanyahu’s insistence on adding new conditions to the draft ceasefire announced by US President Joe Biden on 27 May, claiming it was different from the Israeli proposal, is said to have put the deal in trouble.
Andrew Miller, who served as the US State Department’s assistant secretary of state for Israeli-Palestinian affairs until June, told Politico: “(The deal) seems to be at an impasse, but it’s one of those moments where it’s hard to think of a better strategy, even though it’s unlikely that we’ll get an agreement.
But if we don’t get the deal, there is a possibility that Iran will attack and this could turn into a full-scale conflict,’ an Israeli official said, adding that they did not yet know Hamas’ approach to the deal.
‘Gaza deal is a way out of conflict with Hezbollah’
Andrew Miller argues that ‘additional efforts are needed by both Hamas and Israel’ to reach a final agreement. It also states that the Biden administration believes that the Gaza agreement will be a ‘way out’ of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Officials note that the failure of the current negotiations for an agreement will escalate the conflict both in Gaza and with Hezbollah.
Iran: Our response to Israel can also be on land
Meanwhile, Iran’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations (UN) said that Tehran’s response to Israel over the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Heniyye would be ‘unexpected’ and ‘regrettable’ and could be by land.
According to the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA), Iran’s Permanent Mission to the UN was responding to a question about whether ‘Iran has deliberately delayed its response to Israel until the outcome of the ceasefire talks in Gaza is known’.
Iran’s response should have 2 clear consequences. First, it should punish the aggressor for ‘terrorism’ and ‘violation of Iran’s national sovereignty’. Second, it should strengthen Iran’s deterrent power and make Israel regret it in order to prevent any future attacks’.
The statement said that Iran’s response would include avoiding any negative impact on a possible ceasefire: ‘Iran’s response is likely to come at the time and under the conditions that Israel would least like. Perhaps at a time when they are ignoring the ground attack, when their eyes are in the sky and on the radar screen, or an attack consisting of both.
The deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Ali Fedawi, said in a statement yesterday: ‘We will determine when and how the revenge of the martyr Heniyye will be avenged, and it will definitely take place’, while the spokesman for the Revolutionary Guards, Ali Mohammad Naini, said: “Time is in our favour. Let the enemy wait for the time when he will be shot”.
Middle East
Iran to receive hundreds of Chinese shoulder-fired missiles within weeks, sources say
Iran is expected to receive its first shipment of 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air defense missile systems within weeks as it seeks to rebuild its air defenses amid an ongoing war with the US.
Three sources with knowledge of the agreement disclosed the information to Reuters.
Valued at between $60 million and $70 million, the purchase represents one of Tehran’s largest known efforts to bolster its short-range air defense capabilities since the outbreak of hostilities with the US and Israel.
According to the sources, the contract covers between 300 and 400 man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, including Chinese-made QW-12 and FN-16 missiles.
The deal was signed with Hong Kong-based Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, which reportedly acted as an intermediary between the Iranian side and the Chinese supplier.
Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not yet responded to a request for comment from Reuters regarding the information provided by the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued the following statement:
“The relevant reports are completely baseless. China has consistently played a role in promoting peace and bringing an end to the conflict.”
Beijing-based Zhong Qing Bao Shang Group, the parent company of Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent on Tuesday.
Iran needs to rearm following months of conflict during which the US and Israel struck facilities tied to its missile, drone, and air defense programs. Tehran responded to those attacks with salvos of ballistic missiles and drones.
The fighting demonstrated the difficulty of defending static military and strategic installations against advanced fighter jets and precision-guided munitions.
Washington abruptly halted its two-week bombing campaign on Saturday. However, US President Donald Trump said attacks would resume if negotiations aimed at ending the five-month war—which has theoretically been under a ceasefire since April—fail.
The delivery of hundreds of MANPADS systems would significantly expand Iran’s inventory of short-range air defense weapons.
However, the sources cautioned that while the agreement has been signed, the delivery schedule, quantities, and other operational details remain subject to change.
Under the plan agreed upon by the parties, initial deliveries will be transported by air from the western Chinese city of Urumqi before being routed through Pakistan to Iran. The sources did not clarify whether transport following the transit through Pakistan would occur by air or land.
The Pakistani military’s public relations wing, ISPR, said in a statement:
“Allegations that Pakistan is playing a role in the supply of air defense weapons from China to Iran are completely fabricated and contrary to fact.”
Two Western intelligence sources and an Iranian official said Tehran is also exploring the option of using overland routes to transport Chinese-made military equipment and dual-use components more covertly, reducing the risk of shipments being intercepted.
The procurement process underscores how the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to rely on a combination of domestic arms production and foreign suppliers, despite years of sanctions and defense import restrictions.
Reuters previously reported, citing individuals familiar with the discussions, that Iran was close to concluding a separate deal to purchase anti-ship cruise missiles from China. Reuters was unable to confirm whether that agreement was finalized.
Middle East
Saudi crude exports from Yanbu plunge 40% as Yemeni strikes force reliance on costlier routes
Crude oil shipments from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast have dropped by 40% over the past few days.
According to data published on July 26 by maritime intelligence firm Vortexa, the Riyadh administration has begun utilizing the SUMED pipeline in Egypt and alternative transit routes in an effort to bypass the naval blockade declared by forces aligned with Sanaa.
The sharp decline in shipment volumes follows retaliatory operations and the enforcement of a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia by the Yemeni Armed Forces, operating under the Ansarallah movement.
Riyadh has maintained military strikes and blockade measures against Yemen for nearly 12 years.
A Sunday report by maritime intelligence firm Windward, drawing on Vortexa data, noted that Saudi Arabia has established a new logistical framework to maintain its export flows. “Saudi Arabia has created an alternative export route functioning via the SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope,” the report stated. The agency reported that this shift has driven up transportation costs by approximately $9 per barrel.
The market analysis report provided the following assessment regarding the operational mechanics of the transition:
“Saudi crude shipments have not stopped; they have been split into two distinct routes. Tankers berthing at Yanbu Port are now operating with their AIS signals completely turned off. Vessels are concealing their locations to avoid inclusion on Ansarallah’s target list. Saudi Arabia has established an alternative export route operating via the SUMED pipeline and the Cape of Good Hope. Although this route increases costs and transit times, it demonstrates that the market is capable of adapting to changing conditions.”
Saudi Arabia previously activated a similar alternative route via Yanbu during the initial phase of the US-Israel war, following Iran’s first blockade measures directed at the Strait of Hormuz.
At the time of the Windward report’s release, satellite imagery published by SoarAtlas revealed the ongoing situation at Saudi Aramco’s Jizan Oil Refinery. Massive fires triggered by attacks carried out by the Yemeni Armed Forces were shown to be persisting at the $12 billion facility. Images captured on Saturday documented dense black smoke continuing to billow from a giant oil storage tank at the site.
The Yemeni Armed Forces publicly announced their latest military operations against Saudi Arabia on July 25. They stated that the strikes were executed in response to the Saudi-led coalition resuming aerial bombardments against the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah.
An official statement issued by the Yemeni military under the Ansarallah-led administration provided the following details:
“In response to this overt and criminal aggression, the Yemeni Armed Forces carried out two specialized military operations. In the first operation, sensitive Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan were targeted with dozens of ballistic missiles and drones. In the second operation, sensitive Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu were struck using ballistic and cruise missiles alongside unmanned aerial vehicles.”
Spokespersons for the Yemeni military emphasized that the strikes were “precise” and “direct,” while residents in the city of Yanbu were reported to have heard explosions over the weekend. In the early hours of Saturday, Saudi airstrikes had targeted fuel storage facilities and telecommunications infrastructure in Hodeidah.
Mahdi al-Mashat, President of the Ansarallah Supreme Political Council, issued a warning to the Saudi Arabian leadership in a statement on July 27. “We say to the Saudi enemy that those offering you false hopes will be of no avail. Anything short of an end to the aggression and the complete lifting of the blockade is mere fantasy,” al-Mashat said.
In line with their naval blockade decision, the Yemeni Armed Forces have also targeted two Saudi oil tankers with missiles in recent days. The Sanaa administration officially initiated its maritime restrictions on July 20 under the stated principle of “a blockade for a blockade.”
This latest phase of heightened tension began in early July when Saudi Arabia launched an airstrike targeting Sanaa International Airport for the first time after a prolonged hiatus. Yemeni forces responded by striking Abha Airport in Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones. The attack marked the Yemeni military’s first direct retaliatory strike inside Saudi territory since 2021.
The Saudi-led coalition initially intervened in Yemen in 2015 after Ansarallah took control of the capital, Sanaa, and ousted the Riyadh-backed government. The United Arab Emirates joined as a principal coalition partner, while the UK, the US, and Israel provided logistical support.
During peace negotiations conducted between Saudi Arabia and Yemen in 2023, the parties came close to a final agreement before talks stalled. Nevertheless, those contacts effectively served to freeze large-scale combat operations for an extended period.
The air and sea blockade enforced by Saudi Arabia for over a decade has deepened the humanitarian crisis, particularly due to commercial flight restrictions imposed on Sanaa International Airport. These measures have prevented critically ill and injured civilians from traveling abroad for medical treatment, while the coalition’s military intervention has driven widespread famine and resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. Prior to Riyadh’s latest airstrikes, Yemeni forces had been conducting a general mobilization aimed at expelling coalition elements from the country.
Middle East
Pentagon faces severe budget crunch as Middle East operational costs drain key military funds
The US Department of Defense is facing a severe budgetary shortfall driven by the escalation of the war with Iran, according to current and former American officials cited by The Washington Post.
Officials noted that funding for several critical areas could be completely exhausted in the coming weeks. Budgets allocated for this year’s operations of the Navy and Air Force, which have deployed warships and aviation assets to the Middle East, are projected to run out by the end of July.
To cover the funding deficit expected before the start of fiscal year 2027 on October 1, the Pentagon is internally redirecting its budgetary resources. Under this approach, military exercises and training sessions designed to maintain troop combat readiness are being scaled back or canceled. Additionally, funds originally allocated for the maintenance and repair of military equipment and facilities are being transferred to operational expenses.
In recent weeks, the Department of Defense requested permission from Congress to shift $4.3 billion—initially allocated for personnel training and weapons procurement—to cover emergency requirements. However, no decision has yet been made regarding this request.
The White House has also requested that Congress allocate $67 billion in emergency supplemental funding to cover military expenditures. Despite this, the House of Representatives plans to begin a one-month recess on Thursday, which will delay any decision on the funding for at least several weeks.
“Everyone needs to look at this situation and shake off the complacency,” said Representative Pat Harrigan, a Republican from North Carolina, commenting on the development.
Pentagon Spokesperson Sean Parnell emphasized the critical importance of defense funding, stating that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will do everything necessary to maintain the combat readiness of the armed forces.
Secretary Hegseth and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, are scheduled to present the justification for the funding allocation at an upcoming hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. Russell Vought, the Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, is also among those scheduled to testify before the committee.
Vought stated last month that the cost of the war had reached approximately $30 billion. However, this White House calculation did not include the cost of rebuilding and repairing US bases damaged as a result of Iranian attacks in the Middle East.
Current and former officials warn that if Congress fails to act, military leadership will soon be forced to make even deeper compromises.
In closed-door discussions, Pentagon officials are expressing more profound anxieties. They emphasize that supplemental funding is urgently required to replenish munitions stockpiles, which are vital for deterring adversaries such as Russia and China.
The US defense budget for this year stands at approximately $1 trillion. This figure includes $150 billion in one-time funding approved by Congress last year for various priority goals, ranging from designing advanced weapons systems to stimulating the domestic defense industry. Meanwhile, the Donald Trump administration has requested a $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027.
Internal Pentagon assessments indicate that when accounting for base repairs, the replacement of destroyed aircraft, and the replenishment of munitions stockpiles, the total cost of the Iran war could rise to between $80 billion and $100 billion, according to reporting by NBC. Sources state that the repair costs for US military facilities in Bahrain alone could reach $1 billion.
Senators are expected to question Hegseth on the collapse of the ceasefire, rising war costs, and the American service members who lost their lives in Jordan, Bloomberg reported.
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