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China economy starts 2026 on stronger footing despite rising geopolitical risks

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China’s economy opened the year on a firmer footing, with factory output accelerating and both retail sales and investment rebounding in the January-February period, offering policymakers an early measure of relief even as the US–Israel war with Iran injects fresh uncertainty into the growth outlook.

The resilience follows a surge in exports driven by booming demand for artificial intelligence-linked technologies, which has also buoyed the upstream manufacturing sector. Yet analysts caution that geopolitical tensions, fragile consumer confidence, and strains in global trade and energy markets continue to cloud the outlook.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed industrial output rose 6.3% year on year, up from 5.2% growth in December. The figure exceeded the 5% forecast in a Reuters poll and marked the fastest expansion since September last year.

“Despite rising risks to the outlook from geopolitical tensions and disruptions in global trade and energy markets, the latest data indicate that China has entered the year with a stronger growth foundation than previously expected,” said Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International.

Retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, rose 2.8%, accelerating from December’s 0.9% increase and marking the strongest growth since October last year. Analysts had expected a 2.5% rise.

Part of the momentum was driven by the country’s longest Lunar New Year holiday in February, with total tourism spending rising about 19% compared with the same holiday period last year, which was one day shorter.

However, spending per trip in domestic tourism fell 0.2%, suggesting consumers remain cautious.

For instance, data released last week showed domestic passenger vehicle sales dropped 26% in the first two months of the year.

China reports January and February data together to smooth distortions caused by the shifting timing of holiday periods.

Figures released on Monday also offered another encouraging signal for policymakers, as a surprise rise in investment helped offset some of the drag from the prolonged downturn in the critical property sector.

Fixed-asset investment, which includes property and infrastructure, rose 1.8% in the first two months of the year. The increase defied analysts’ expectations of a 2.1% decline and followed a 3.8% contraction in 2025, which marked the first annual drop in nearly three decades.

Infrastructure investment led the rebound, growing 11.4%, as policy support began to take effect, including a new financing tool for banks to fund key projects.

While the headline data point to pockets of strength, they also underscore a persistent gap between robust external demand and weak household consumption. Analysts warn that this imbalance could weigh on China’s long-term growth prospects.

“There is still a non-negligible risk that domestic demand data will remain under downward pressure in March,” said Zhaopeng Xing, senior China strategist at ANZ, adding that the overall data do not yet warrant an interest rate cut.

Credit data released last week also pointed to continued stagnation in household borrowing.

In a concerning signal for income generation, the surveyed nationwide unemployment rate edged up to 5.3% in the first two months of the year, from 5.1% in December.

Impact of war likely to be felt in coming months

At last week’s annual parliamentary meeting, policymakers set a growth target of 4.5%–5% for this year, below last year’s “around 5%” goal.

That target was achieved in 2025 largely on the back of a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus, a development that has unsettled China’s trading partners.

Analysts say China faces significant challenges as it seeks to secure more sustainable long-term growth.

Although the government has pledged a “significant” boost to household consumption, it has announced only limited measures pointing to aggressive demand-side reforms.

The conflict in the Middle East adds a new layer of uncertainty by pushing up energy prices and disrupting global trade, while raising the stakes for US President Donald Trump’s planned visit to Beijing at the end of March, where he is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping.

NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui told a press briefing on Monday that the war in the Middle East had triggered volatility in oil prices and unsettled markets, but said China’s overall energy supply could act as a buffer against external shocks. He added that the impact of the conflict on domestic prices required further study.

Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said: “The turmoil in the Middle East is expected to show its impact on the global economy in the coming months… I expect policymakers to respond through fiscal policy if necessary.”

“The market will focus on the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders. China will likely purchase more goods from the US to reduce the trade imbalance, but the war in the Middle East has made the meeting more complicated,” he added.

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China launches patrols east of Taiwan after Japan and Philippines open maritime boundary talks

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Beijing said it had conducted law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan in response to a decision by Japan and the Philippines to launch talks on maritime boundary delimitation.

According to a statement from the China Coast Guard, a flotilla led by the vessel Daishan carried out law enforcement patrols “in accordance with the law” on Monday.

China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said the operation was “a necessary action” in response to Japan and the Philippines “unilaterally announcing the start of negotiations on maritime delimitation in waters east of China’s Taiwan Island.”

“Such an announcement seriously infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and its maritime rights and interests,” Jiang said.

“We urge Japan and the Philippines to immediately cease all illegal actions that violate China’s sovereignty and rights,” he added.

Jiang also said the coast guard would continue strengthening its control and management of the relevant waters and that China would take concrete measures to “resolutely safeguard territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”

The United States and most of its allies, including Japan and the Philippines, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state and acknowledge it as part of China. The United Nations has also adopted resolutions reflecting this position. However, Washington continues to provide arms to Taiwan as part of its broader efforts to counter China and encourages its allies to do the same.

Following a summit in Tokyo between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the two countries said in a joint statement issued on Thursday that they had agreed to begin “formal negotiations” to delimit their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves.

Beijing condemned the planned talks as “completely illegal and invalid” and swiftly lodged formal diplomatic protests with both Tokyo and Manila.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday: “The so-called delimitation negotiations are entirely illegal, invalid and void. They will have no impact whatsoever on China’s claims or on China’s exercise of its legitimate rights in the area east of Taiwan Island.”

The latest escalation comes at a time when relations between Beijing and both Tokyo and Manila are already strained. Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of the United States, while China remains engaged in separate territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

As US attention and resources have increasingly shifted toward the war involving Iran, and as the White House has made the Western Hemisphere a strategic priority, Japan and the Philippines have stepped up diplomatic engagement in the region commonly referred to as the Indo-Pacific.

That effort has included building closer security and defence ties with other countries, prompting Beijing to accuse them of encouraging bloc confrontation in the region.

Japan and the Philippines do not share a maritime boundary. However, their seabed claims could overlap because both countries seek to extend their legal continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles, equivalent to 370 kilometres or 230 miles.

The overlapping area lies east of Taiwan, southwest of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and north of the Philippines’ Batanes Islands.

Yang Xiao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s highest-ranking state-affiliated think tank, said Taiwan’s EEZ and continental shelf are part of the area under discussion.

“These are China’s rights and are not something that the two sides can negotiate among themselves,” Yang said.

In an interview published on Sunday by Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, before the China Coast Guard announced the patrols, Yang said Beijing would take “historic and unprecedented” countermeasures against Tokyo and Manila.

“Since they are negotiating in a three-party overlapping zone, we can also take further steps to advance our jurisdiction in the waters east of Taiwan,” Yang said.

“If the other side insists on reckless and destructive actions, we will inevitably introduce new countermeasures.”

Yang described the waters east of Taiwan as a vital maritime area for the island’s economic activities.

“If these waters are divided between Japan and the Philippines, that would clearly harm the interests of the people living on Taiwan Island,” he added.

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SoftBank overtakes Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable company

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As artificial intelligence reshapes industrial structures in Japan and South Korea, stock market rankings are being redrawn. SoftBank Group has overtaken Toyota Motor to become Japan’s most valuable listed company.

SoftBank shares have surged as the global artificial intelligence rally gathers momentum, lifting the technology conglomerate’s market capitalisation above that of Toyota for the first time in more than two decades.

The shift reflects a broader reordering of Japan’s equity market. Automakers, alongside banks, steelmakers, energy companies and other traditional heavy industries, are losing ground to chipmakers and companies linked to artificial intelligence.

SoftBank shares jumped 14% on Monday, reaching a new record high. The company’s market value climbed to 48 trillion yen, or $301 billion, making it the most valuable company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Toyota had long held the top position, with a market capitalisation of approximately 45 trillion yen. The last time SoftBank surpassed Toyota was in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

SoftBank’s rapid rise has been driven by strong earnings performance and its substantial investment in ChatGPT developer OpenAI.

The Japanese company reported net profit of 1.82 trillion yen, or $11.4 billion, for the first three months of 2026, 3.5 times higher than in the same period a year earlier. The group is also increasing its investment in OpenAI, completing a $10 billion investment in April and committing to invest an additional $20 billion later this year. Total investment is expected to reach roughly $65 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI plans to file for an initial public offering and aims to list in the United States as early as September. Some media reports suggest the company could seek to raise $60 billion through the offering, potentially valuing it at more than $1 trillion. Such a transaction could become the largest initial public offering in history.

Investors expect the IPO to significantly boost SoftBank’s investment gains. Those expectations have helped drive the technology group’s share price higher. SoftBank shares have risen about 127% since early April.

The company is also planning to invest up to 14 trillion yen in the construction of data centres in France.

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China and Serbia agree to expand cooperation in emerging sectors

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Chinese President Xi Jinping met Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Beijing, where the two leaders discussed bilateral ties and oversaw the signing of multiple cooperation agreements. Xi also awarded Vucic the Friendship Medal of the People’s Republic of China.

The meeting between Xi Jinping and Aleksandar Vucic began with an official welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

The two leaders then proceeded to formal talks. Xi said China and Serbia had achieved “positive results” since jointly launching the construction of a “China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era” in 2024.

Xi said the partnership had not only benefited the two peoples but had also set an example for international relations.

The Chinese president described relations between China and Serbia as an “iron friendship” based on deep historical ties and mutual trust.

Calling on both sides to strengthen exchanges, deepen practical cooperation and continue supporting each other on issues concerning their core interests, Xi also said the two countries should align their development strategies and advance cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. In this context, he pointed to transport, energy and infrastructure projects.

Xi also called for expanding cooperation in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, the digital economy, green energy and advanced manufacturing.

Aleksandar Vucic congratulated China on the start of implementation of its 15th Five-Year Plan. Vucic also expressed confidence in China’s future development under Xi Jinping’s leadership.

The Serbian president said Belgrade attached great importance to relations with China and firmly supported Beijing on issues concerning China’s core interests.

Vucic thanked Chinese companies for their contributions to Serbia’s economic development and infrastructure construction.

Saying the two countries had made notable progress since establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership, Vucic added that cooperation had expanded across numerous sectors.

The Serbian president also praised China’s role in international affairs, saying Beijing approached smaller countries on the basis of equality and respect and defended international law.

Following the talks, the two leaders witnessed the signing of more than 20 cooperation agreements covering politics, trade, science and technology, education, legal affairs and culture.

The two sides also issued joint statements on steadily advancing the construction of a China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era and jointly supporting the implementation of four global initiatives.

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