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INTERVIEW

‘China’s breakthrough no miracle, but result of patient development strategy’

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Rémy Herrera, a researcher at the University of Panthéon-Sorbonne and the National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), the largest research centre in France and the largest basic research centre in Europe, assessed China’s development dynamics from the past to the present. 

A former consultant to the OECD and the World Bank, economist Rémy Herrera is also a former secretary of the World Forum for Alternatives (WFA) and a member of the International Crisis Observatory (OIC). 

One of France’s leading Marxist economists and one of the most important critics of neoclassical economics, Rémy Herrera analyses not only the financial and socio-economic causes of the crises of capitalism, but also the countries that have adopted different development models by choosing alternative political-economic approaches to capitalism. In his work, Herrera takes a historical perspective on economic developments in Asia and Latin America, particularly in China and Cuba, and challenges the Eurocentric approach of the neoliberal school in its economic analyses of developments in these countries.

Remy Herrera answered Ferhan Bayır’s questions on the Chinese economy.

Let’s start with your books on China. Based on your research and observations during your visits to China, how do you interpret the much-discussed Chinese miracle?

Many people who comment on the high growth rate of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) that has been observed for decades use the term “miracle” to describe this phenomenon. In my view, it is not a miracle, but rather the result of a development strategy that has been planned and patiently and effectively implemented by the state and senior officials in successive Communist Party-led governments in this country.

Almost everywhere, in academic circles and in the dominant mainstream media, we read and hear that the “rise” of the Chinese economy is due solely to its “opening up” to globalisation. I would like to add that such rapid growth was only possible thanks to the efforts and achievements of the Maoist era. This opening up to globalisation has been strictly and continuously controlled by the Chinese authorities. It is only under this condition (control) that the opening up to globalisation can be considered to have contributed to the country’s undeniable economic success. This opening to globalisation has been able to have such a positive impact on China in the long term because it has been fully consistent with a coherent development strategy and has been subject to the imperatives of meeting domestic objectives and domestic needs.

It must be clearly understood that without the development of such a development strategy, which was clearly the work of the Chinese Communist Party, and – it must not be forgotten – without the energy expended by the Chinese people in the revolutionary process of implementing this development strategy, if the Chinese Communist Party had integrated the country into the world capitalist system, it would inevitably have led to the complete destruction of its national economy, even of its own existence, as has happened in so many other countries of the South and East. We must remember one fundamental point: For more than a century before the victory of the revolution in October 1949, “opening up” for the Chinese people meant first and foremost capitulation, destruction, exploitation, humiliation, decadence and chaos.

How does China’s success differ from Western development models?

The success of the development strategy implemented by the Chinese government and the many positive effects it has brought to the people of this country stand in stark contrast to the failure of the neo-liberal economic policies implemented in Western countries, which have generally been economically, socially, culturally and even morally disastrous for workers in the countries of the North.

Let me give a concrete example. The strength of Chinese state-owned enterprises is that they are not managed like Western international companies. Listed on the stock exchange and operating according to the logic of shareholder value, share appreciation and rapid return on investment, which requires maximising dividends paid to owners, these Western companies operate by squeezing a chain of subcontractors, local or international. But Chinese state-owned groups do not behave in this way. If they did, they would be acting in a way that would harm local small and medium-sized enterprises and, more broadly, the entire national industrial fabric. The compass that guides the majority of China’s large state-owned enterprises to profit or become profitable is not the enrichment of private shareholders, but the prioritisation of productive investment and customer service. Ultimately, it does not matter to Chinese SOEs that their profits are lower than those of their Western competitors, as long as they serve higher, long-term or national strategic interests, including stimulating the rest of the local economy and looking beyond the immediate vision of profit generation.

Can this model be defined in terms of a neoclassical or neo-Marxist model?

First of all, I believe that the Chinese do not see their development strategy as a “model”, nor do they seek to impose or export their development strategy. They simply believe that there are certain lessons to be learnt by different peoples of the world, but that different peoples with their own specific historical, social and cultural conditions should determine the ends and means of their own development. This perspective is also very different from the Western vision, which wants its “model” to be followed by all the countries of the world.

Neoclassical models have no place in China. Allow me to add that neoclassical economics, which is the hegemonic current or mainstream in economics today, serves no other purpose than to provide a theoretical and pseudo-scientific justification for the implementation of neoliberal policies, an ideology that opposes the practice of social justice and the development of public services. In reality, neoclassical economics is not a science but a science fiction or, as I have argued in a recent book (Confronting Mainstream Economics for Overcoming Capitalism), an ideology that claims to be scientific.

On the other hand, I believe that Marxism has not yet been overcome scientifically. I do not think that Marxism has any serious competitors today. Marxism remains relevant, not least because we still live in a world where the capitalist system is globally dominant, although there have been significant changes, and where a careful explanation of these changes is needed. Despite the numerous attacks on Marxism since its emergence, and despite the repeated claims that it is obsolete – that it is dead – Marxism is enduring, resilient, I would say “indestructible”, and at the same time Marxism is the main theoretical reference point for those thinking about the ways and conditions for a better world. Despite its frequent dogmatisation and the disappearance of the USSR and the Soviet bloc, sometimes to its detriment, Marxism today retains its essence and remains an irreplaceable reference for those struggling for socialism. It is therefore not surprising that it remains an important theoretical reference for China.

Has China based the implementation of its economic model on theoretical foundations?

I would say that the Chinese development strategy, aimed at maintaining and deepening the socialist transition, is based on a theoretical combination of elements drawn from both the main philosophical currents of traditional Chinese thought (especially Confucianism and Taoism, but also various other currents) and a mixed Marxism reinterpreted and modernised in the Chinese style. But it must be understood that this theory is closely linked to the analysis of practical experience. All this (the aforementioned theoretical structure and the analysis of practical experience) has made it possible to provide answers and appropriate solutions to today’s challenges and, in particular, to the many contradictions arising from them.

The Chinese concept of “socialism of the new era” is patient, persistent, concrete, pragmatic and effective, and at the same time it is not Manichaean (evaluating situations and things in a dualism according to absolute principles of good and evil, without nuances and intermediate states); it knows the long term and is not afraid of confronting contradictions or oppositions (e.g. those related to individual initiative or entrepreneurship), which are seen as complementarities and potentials rather than exclusions and substitutes.

One of the lessons to be learnt from “Chinese Marxism” is the idea of seeking harmony between opposites, within man, between people, between man and nature. Chinese political discourse emphasises ‘social harmony’ and ‘stability’ as fundamental values, and the search for ‘compromise’ and ‘consensus’ as the means to achieve them.

There are many concepts in Chinese Marxism which differ from the concept of “class struggle” in Western Marxism, and which Western Marxism generally views with suspicion as characteristic of conservative regimes. To ignore these concepts is to forget their special meaning in Chinese thought as “reconciliation of opposites” and “positive dialectics”. These concepts mean, for example, that there is a dynamic balance between individual self-interest and social needs, between individual and collective interests, and between needs and moral demands. To simplify, we can say that since Mao, the Chinese have believed in a form of progress based on spiral development that tends to smooth out and mitigate contradictions. In this context, socialism ceases to be a project of perfection (a vision alien to Chinese thought, a vision that rebels against the absolute) and becomes a process of construction in motion.

How would you assess the similarities and differences between China’s economic model and that of the post-World War II Soviet Union and the countries of Eastern Europe or the Balkans?

For some years, the People’s Republic of China maintained a “Soviet-style economic model”, which was introduced immediately after the victory of the October Revolution in 1949. However, the PRC abandoned this model when it broke away from the USSR in the early 1960s. After joining the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA or COMECON) in 1950, China left in 1961 and decided to formulate its own development strategy, on its own and for itself. And, frankly, it did so much more effectively than the Soviet Union or the countries of Central and Eastern Europe.

Between 1978 and 1982, China faced a series of economic problems that reflected the difficulties of the post-Mao transition and the implementation of the so-called “opening-up” structural reforms. In particular, the period 1985-1986 saw the introduction of the 1984 tax reform, which was one of the turning points towards a market economy. Then, during the collapse of the USSR and the Soviet bloc, there was a very short-lived experiment that could be described as “neo-liberal”, which was quickly interrupted and abandoned, but the result of this experiment was a sudden and severe economic downturn in 1990-1991, accompanied by an explosion of corruption. It must be acknowledged that the Chinese central government has since fought corruption with great vigour and some success. Fortunately, China has rejected the neo-liberal option that has devastated so many economies around the world. And it has chosen to maintain socialism, which today provides a measure of prosperity for the vast majority of its population.

To what extent do Western Marxists who claim that China has adopted capitalist methods correctly assess China’s financial/wealth growth?

In debates among Western Marxist writers, the vast majority of authors argue that the Chinese economy is capitalist. David Harvey, for example, says that he sees the Chinese economy as “neoliberalism with Chinese characteristics”, where since the 1978 reforms there has been a kind of market economy with more and more neoliberal components, operating within a framework of centralised control that he describes as very authoritarian. I disagree with him. Panitch and Gindin analyse the consequences of China’s integration into the world economic system and see it less as an opportunity for China to redirect global capitalism than as a repetition, this time by China, of the “complementary” role previously played by Japan in providing the United States with the capital flows necessary to maintain its global hegemony, which in turn has led to a tendency in China to liberalise financial markets, eliminate instruments to control capital movements and weaken the foundations of the power of the Chinese Communist Party. I think these writers are wrong.

Other Marxists, Chinese or foreign, certainly fewer in number but no less important, continue to argue that the political-economic system currently in place in China, although comparable or close to “state capitalism”, leaves open a wider range of possible trajectories for the future. For my part, I take this idea so far as to argue that the Chinese system today still contains the essential elements of socialism. Once this has been said, the interpretation of the nature of this system becomes compatible with “market socialism”, which in my view still rests on pillars that clearly distinguish it from capitalism. For my part, I would say that although there are capitalists in China (and there are many billionaires), it is not possible to describe the Chinese system as capitalist. Of course there are elements of “state capitalism”, but I prefer to speak of the Chinese system as “market socialism”, or rather “socialism with the market”. I think we have to take the Chinese seriously when they talk about “socialism with Chinese colours”. This is not just propaganda; it is a reality, it is their reality.

At the monetary and financial level, for example, it is worth noting that the Chinese authorities have been able to cope with the power of the financial markets, but they have also been able to build a “great wall of money” by defending the national currency, the yuan. They have managed to put money at the service of development. Very powerful strategic planning, whose techniques have been made more flexible, modernised and adapted to today’s needs, and thus much more effective, is a distinctive feature of the socialist path. State control of the currency and of all the major banks is a sine qua non, as is close supervision of the activities of financial institutions and of the behaviour of foreign companies operating in the country. Once again, it is the state that controls capitalism in China, not the other way round. At least that has been the case so far.

What is the significance of Deng Xiaoping for China today? Is there a connection or disconnection between Xi Jinping’s political and economic decisions and those of Deng Xiaoping?

Deng Xiaoping’s definitive rise to the pinnacle of power began in August 1977 with the 11th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party and the subsequent push for deep economic reform that began in late 1978. Deng’s idea was not to abandon socialism, but to find ways to lift the vast majority of Chinese out of poverty and enable the country to achieve what the establishment called a “moderately prosperous” society. Since Xi Jinping, the development strategy has been reaffirmed as socialist, and the country’s overall policy orientation has been more in favour of the less affluent sections of the population and the less developed regions of the country.

The difficulty in understanding “Chinese socialism” stems from the refusal of its leaders to interpret it as the banalisation of scarcity or the “sharing of misery”. What the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party sought to do, and succeeded in doing, was to lift the great mass of the Chinese people out of poverty under Mao and up to the level of a “moderately prosperous” society under Deng Xiaoping. Since then, as a logical continuation of the revolution, their desire has been to pursue a socialist transition in which the vast majority of the population now has access to prosperity, especially a wide range of consumer goods, and can enjoy abundance. Wouldn’t that be killing two birds with one stone and proving that socialism can and must overcome capitalism?

Could you elaborate on China’s economic growth?

It is wrong to say, as we often hear, that the high growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the Chinese economy is due to the capitalism adopted since 1978. Quite the opposite. Economic growth has been high because the Chinese state, under the authority of the Communist Party, has managed to prevent capitalism from taking control of the country and, as a positive reflection of this, has redistributed wealth throughout society on a large scale. I should add that, even if we want to believe that the Chinese system is capitalist (which I do not), it would be wrong to claim that China’s high growth has only been observed since 1978. This is because the country’s economic growth was already very, very high under Mao, much higher than in any other country with a planned economy, and even higher than in many industrialised Western countries. Western leaders want to hide this fact because it is unbearable for them to admit that a socialist country can be successful, especially more successful than capitalist countries.

I have to say that the goal of the Chinese Communist Party is not to take over everything economically, but to maintain political control over everything. The two are not synonymous. Chinese leaders have repeatedly said that the coexistence of public and private activities, both encouraged within a mixed, hybrid system, is the chosen means to develop the country’s productive forces as much as possible and raise the level of development. The use of all means, including attracting foreign capital and importing advanced technologies, is not aimed at abandoning socialism, but at improving the living conditions of the population and deepening the process of socialist transition begun in 1949. Paradoxically, China remains a developing country, as evidenced by its still modest GDP per capita. This process will be long, difficult, full of contradictions and risks, and its course remains largely uncertain. However, I think it is worth stressing that this system still has many features that are clearly different from capitalism and which, in my opinion, are related to the realisation of a socialist project and the potential for its reactivation, which leads us to recommend taking the speeches of the country’s political leaders seriously.

Does China’s meeting with President Biden signal a shift from economic dominance to a more pronounced political presence in the international arena, especially in Africa, Latin America and the Middle East, and in its attitude towards Russia? Does China want to become the centre of a multipolar world?

China has no desire to replace the United States as the world’s dominant power. China has neither the will nor the mentality to do so. On the other hand, it is clear that China is trying to contribute to the construction of a multipolar world, as opposed to the unipolar world in which the United States has so far ruled unchallenged (and admittedly in a highly aggressive manner). China’s leaders seek universal peace and balance in international relations. But it is clear that they will defend their country’s sovereignty without submitting to foreign domination.

Regarding the “trade war” between the US and China, we have co-authored a paper with Chinese authors entitled “Turning One’s Loss Into a Win? The US Trade War With China in Perspective’, which we co-authored with Chinese authors, shows that the ratio of labour hours integrated into trade between the two countries since 1978, compared to the same amount of trade exchange, is higher in China than in the US, and that there is an unequal exchange of value between them in favour of the US and to the detriment of China. In other words, the fact that China has run an increasing bilateral trade surplus over the last decade should be seen in the light of the fact that (according to our calculations) it has benefited the United States in particular in terms of the labour hours included in exports.

In such a paradoxical context, the outbreak of the trade war against China in 2018 can be interpreted as an attempt by the US administration, then led by President Trump, to slow down the slow and steady deterioration of the US trade advantage vis-à-vis its main emerging rival, China.

How is China organising international economic relations for a multi-power world to counter US dominance? Given the examples of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the BRICS, can a global payment system be created in the near future to counterbalance the dominance of the US dollar?

China has realised that the two pillars of US domination of the world capitalist system are military and monetary. That is why it has actively participated in the creation of strategic alliance networks such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and economic alliance networks such as the BRICS grouping. He also realised that these two pillars are interdependent and therefore fragile. That is why he launched a number of innovative and bold initiatives.

I refer to some of them in another book (Money, published by Palgrave Mcmillan). For example, China is planning to challenge the prevailing order in the oil market, of which it is the world’s largest importer. Since 2018, China has decided to promote yuan-denominated oil futures contracts on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, which is accessible to foreign investors, in order to compete with references such as London Brent and New York West Texas Intermediate (which set the standard for defining crude oil prices and futures contracts for this commodity on Wall Street), which were undisputed in this field until this year.

In this context, China and Russia (already forming an economically dynamic – and militarily deterrent – alliance that could be a reliable counterweight to the United States) have decided to launch a new global alternative currency, called “petro-yuan-gold”, which could displace the dollar. Petro-yuan-gold is a global currency project based on oil, a basic commodity, and linked to gold, a feat no longer within Washington’s reach. Indeed, China’s advantage lies not only in its high GDP growth rate, but also in the fact that it is the world’s largest producer and buyer of gold, with Russia in third place, ahead of the United States. In 2018, Beijing took the initiative to promote a broad oil-yuan-gold trading facility on the global energy exchange. Then came the implementation of metal-yuan-gold. China offered to exchange the yuan it receives for gold for oil supplies and metal purchases. These events will have a significant impact on the global system.

Having persuaded Iran and Saudi Arabia to engage in diplomatic talks, can China achieve similar success in resolving the conflicts between Russia and the West, as well as the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

China has, of course, been playing an increasingly important and positive role in defusing existing international conflicts for a number of years. We saw this recently in the war in Ukraine between NATO and Russia, led by the United States, and then in the war between Israel and Palestine, supported by the United States and the European Union. Not long ago, we saw China speak out to prevent the outbreak of a conflict between Iran and Pakistan. We can think of China as the voice of many countries of the South that are seeking the path of development and not the path of war. That is why it is so important to analyse carefully what China wants and says.

China’s international strategy is based on five principles: 1) respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity; 2) mutual non-aggression; 3) non-interference in internal affairs; 4) equality and mutual benefit; 5) peaceful coexistence. One would have to be in bad faith not to recognise that China’s statements on preserving peace and promoting the peaceful resolution of existing conflicts are being respected. And it must be remembered that China has never in its modern history pursued an expansionist colonial policy. Today, it does not want to revive the climate of the “Cold War”, which is contrary to the concept of peace among nations. China opposes all military alliances and has never joined a military coalition, not even against ISIS. It has not established any military bases abroad, except for one in Djibouti, which it presents as a “simple logistical facility” in a sensitive maritime location. The contrast with the Western powers, especially the United States, which has a history of coups and military interventions, is striking. “Cooperation” is the keyword of Chinese policy, along with the priority given to development and the “win-win” principle.

Can China take a more proactive stance in promoting regional and global peace in the midst of the US war economy? How should the Belt and Road project be assessed in this situation?

The military-industrial complex plays a crucial role in the economy of the United States, but it has also reached an extremely worrying dimension, threatening what the West likes to call “democracy” (which it respects less and less at home and almost never beyond its borders). With more than half of the world’s military expenditure and more than 1150 military bases around the world (I calculated this in my article “Notes on US Bases and Military Staff Abroad”), the United States is in an economic crisis, in a difficult situation and is gradually pushing the whole world towards total war. They are more and more openly expressing their desire to shift the axis of new conflicts to the Far East, especially to Taiwan. China must resist this US provocation and push towards war, but at the same time it must defend its interests and territory. Taiwan is one of them. Reunification therefore remains a priority for Beijing. The US administration is fuelling the arms race that once brought the USSR to its knees. But the escalation of this dangerous race is no longer enough to influence a China in good economic health and armed with a sufficient deterrent.

More generally, it is important to understand that capitalism, trapped in a systemic crisis, can no longer find solutions to its problems through the logic of maximising immediate profits and is becoming more dangerous. Between company bankruptcies and mass unemployment, stock market crashes and banking instability, the likelihood of a worsening of the systemic crisis of capital is extremely high today. All the conditions are in place for the contradictions in the system to become even more pronounced, especially since very few reforms have been carried out since the 2008 crisis. The most urgent issue at the moment is to put an end to the “organisation” of the world system through war under the domination of the United States of America. The defence of peace is a priority. Consequently, we must pull the plug on the war machine operated by the financial oligopolies by subjecting it to public and democratic control.

This is where the great project of the Silk Road comes in, already partially implemented: land routes – the “Belt” – and sea routes – the “Road”. This cooperation is of particular interest to Asian countries, because China has neighbours, both near and far, such as in the Middle East, that do not have sufficient investment for their development, and also because China sees advantages that could stimulate the development of its own western provinces, which are lagging behind in terms of development compared to those on China’s eastern coast. African countries are also interested because they are the ones most affected by “underdevelopment” (as the West calls it). We cannot say that this cooperation is perfect, as it focuses more on the supply of raw materials, but it is very important for African countries that China provides infrastructure, builds hospitals and roads in exchange for the supply of raw materials.

The Silk Roads go all the way to Europe, which creates resentment because it comes from a strategic competitor. If the European economies are in principle capable of developing themselves and have sufficient investment, why do some of them welcome Chinese investment so much? The reason is obvious: the governments of European countries with economies in recession or even in decline, victims of neo-liberal austerity, debt reduction, spending cuts and privatisation imposed by the European Union, are ready to sell their assets to the highest bidder and see Chinese investment as a means to develop themselves. China has made many investments outside the European Union, particularly in the Balkans. It is therefore not surprising that 17 Eastern and Southern European countries, 11 of which are members of the European Union, have joined the Silk Road initiative.

The Silk Road does not stop at the Euro-Asian continent and Africa. Cooperation with the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean is already well advanced, especially with the poorest countries in the region. Development assistance is provided mainly through the Silk Road Fund (a sovereign wealth fund) and loans from public banks at favourable interest rates. However, China does not want to be the sole financier of this project and wants to involve all countries that are able to participate in these loans, and which, unlike the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund, do not impose politico-economic conditions on the countries they finance, in loans for infrastructure that will form the basis for rapid development.

This is what led to the creation of the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank, which today has almost a hundred members (France, Germany and the United Kingdom are members of the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank, but the United States of America, which, unlike the IMF and the World Bank, cannot control it, is obviously not a member; China, the bank’s largest shareholder, explicitly excludes its veto).

All in all, the Silk Road has grown enormously in just a few years: 124 countries, representing two-thirds of the world’s population, and 24 international organisations have signed agreements.

He should insist that it be made clear that this project is intended to exclude all political considerations. It is an initiative “open to all countries” with no other objective than common development. But there are also partnerships that focus on economic cooperation and the construction of multilateral trade zones, as in the case of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which will create the largest such zone in the world, with three billion inhabitants and 30% of world GDP. And in such partnerships, US hegemony will be challenged, especially as trade and investment will no longer be conducted in dollars but in national currencies.

Finally, we are realising that it is capitalism itself that has become unsustainable. It is obvious that this system, which is essentially dedicated to infinite and unlimited accumulation, is incompatible with a finite and finite planet. Capitalism destroys any kind of social harmony with the logic of creating ever greater inequalities. China claimed to achieve development by controlling these dynamics of capitalism. But now it is these dynamics that have to be limited. “Chinese” market socialism will have to gradually move away from capitalism if it is to realise a truly alternative path for humanity. This is the real goal; according to the Chinese authorities, and more explicitly today, certain features borrowed from capitalism are borrowed to be used “until the bridge is crossed”, they are not a long “detour” in the socialist transition on the road to communism.

Some of the author’s related works:

HERRERA, Rémy (2023), Dynamics of China’s Economy: Growth, Cycles, and Crises, (book’s coauthor with Zhiming Long), 375 p., December, Leiden/Boston: Brill. ISBN : 978-90-04-52402-6.

– (2023), Value, Money, Profit, and Capital Today, (book’s editor), 328 p., September, London: Emerald, ISBN : 978-1804-55-7518.

– (2023), La Chine est-elle impérialiste ?, (book’s editor), 192 p., February, Paris: Éditions Critiques, ISBN: 979-10-97331-45-0.

– (2023), « Turning One’s Loss Into a Win? The US Trade War With China in Perspective », (article’s coauthor with Zhiming Long, Zhixuan Feng and Bangxi Li) Research in Political Economy, n° 39, p. 31-50, London.

– (2023), « La Chine (vue de France), une inconnue ? Sur les contradictions, la dialectique, la morale et le socialisme », (article’s coauthor with Tony Andreani and Zhiming Long), Revue de Philosophie économique, vol. 24, n° 1, p. 167-189, Paris.

– (2022), Money – From the Power of Finance to the Sovereignty of the Peoples, (book’s author), 337 p., August, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, ISBN : 978-981-19-28475.

– (2022), Confronting Mainstream Economics for Overcoming Capitalism, (book’s author), 347 p., July, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, ISBN : 978-3-031-05850-9.

– (2021), Imperialism and Transitions to Socialism, (book’s editor), 272 p., September, London: Emerald, ISBN: 978-18-00437-05-0.

– (2021), « Guerre(s) et crise(s) globales : sur leurs relations systémiques », (article’s author), Marchés & Organisations, vol. 2021/2, n° 41, p. 139-155, Paris.

– (2021), « Is China Transforming the World? », (article’s coauthor with Tony Andreani and Zhiming Long), Monthly Review, vol. 73, n° 3, p. 21-30, New York.

– (2019), La Chine est-elle capitaliste ?, (book’s coauthor with Zhiming Long), 196 p., February, Paris: Éditions Critiques. ISBN : 9791097331139.

– (2013), “Notes on US Bases and Military Staff Abroad,” (article’s coauthor Joëlle Cicchini ), Journal of Innovation Economics & Management, 2013/3, n° 42, p. 147-173, Brussels.

INTERVIEW

‘Washington now has turned a new page in relations with Ankara’

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Matthew Bryza, Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, spoke to Harici: “Washington now has turned a new page in relations with Ankara and is working together more with Ankara on difficult issues in the Middle East where frankly Türkiye’s expertise is so deep and in many cases deeper than that of the United States.”

Ambassador Matthew Bryza has a twenty-three-year career as a US diplomat. His final assignment was as US ambassador to Azerbaijan from February 2011 to January 2012. From 2005 to 2009, Ambassador Bryza served as deputy assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia, with responsibility for the South Caucasus, Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, and Eurasian energy. Ambassador Bryza simultaneously served as the US co-chair of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk Group, mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and as US mediator of the Cyprus, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia conflicts.

Matthew Bryza answered our questions on the developments in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war and Türkiye-US relations.

Let’s start talking about the recent regional developments between Israel and Iran. The main question is now how Israel is going to answer Iran’s retaliation act.  What should we expect?

Right now, as we sit here, there’s a debate going on in the so-called war cabinet in Jerusalem about that very question. It seems a foregone conclusion that Israel will respond. It feels it must respond in some way so that it demonstrates to Iran that there’s a cost a price to be paid. You can’t just send over 300 projectiles toward Israel and not suffer any cost. So, I think that Netanyahu is not going to pay attention to President Biden’s advice which is to as Biden said “take the win”, “you suffered a humiliating blow to Iran by knocking out of the sky”. Over 99% of what was sent toward Israel reached there. “Take the win and move on and celebrate Passover and quiet things down”. Now, I think, across the political Spectrum in Israel, all Israelis even on the left, want Israel to respond.  But neither Netanyahu, nor I think, now the vast majority of the members of his cabinet want a regional war. They don’t want a war with Iran. So, I think they’ll look for a way to respond maybe against Iranian military in installations, not targeting the personnel but maybe the infrastructure, they could launch a cyber-attack, they’ve done it in the past. But I think it will be some sort of limited physical response most likely that from Israel’s perspective reduces the risk of a regional war or an all-out war between Israel and Iran.

Do you expect any assassination? Because this is actually a tradition of Israel when it comes to assassinate Iranian, sometimes politicians, sometimes academicians who are working on nuclear?

They did do that with the nuclear scientist although of course Israel denies it. I have no idea what they’re actually thinking about but I would be surprised at this point if they return to using assassinations as a tactic.  Because I think now that Iran has set a new precedent and sort of opened Pandora’s box by attacking Israeli territory from Iranian territory. I think, on the Israeli side, there has to be a calculation about frankly how much bigger might the Iranian response be this time.  You know, Iran sent one wave of attack granted; it was in three different components, there were drones and there were cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. But the targeting was limited and it doesn’t seem that the Iranians targeted civilian infrastructure. And the Iranians gave plenty of warning so that Israel’s friends and allies could be ready to help Israel shoot down the incoming missiles.  Next time who knows if that’s what’s going to happen; Iran could send a much bigger strike. And it could do it without any warning and could really inflict damage then on the civilian population of Israel. So, I think, the Israeli leadership is considering that and doesn’t want to do anything that would push Iran over the threshold to really go after Israel’s population. So, I would be surprised if assassinations were part of the response.

So, what do you expect as Israel’s response?

Well, as I was saying, I think they could launch limited missile strikes on Iranian military infrastructure. It could be on the infrastructure that was used to attack Israel and they could launch a cyber-attack as they reputedly have done in the past.

And what do you think, really, they postponed this response?

Well, I think they’re debating at the top level of the government and the war cabinet. You know it’s now been publicized that the most moderate member of the so-called war cabinet Benny Gantz initially wanted Israel to strike back right away against Iran and in a forceful physical way. And it was reportedly Netanyahu, the prime minister who said “no, let’s discuss, this let’s debate and figure out again how we can send a strong signal to deter Iran but without causing a wider war”. So, I think that either they’ve just been trying to figure out what to do or well trying to agree on what to do. And maybe be Passover is coming.

Türkiye was actually tracking these recent developments very closely. Nobody was on screen talking about what Iran should do or what Israel should do. After the incident, we heard that Ministry of Foreign Affairs was actually between two countries not to increase the tension. This has nothing to do with Iran’s retaliation but it is putting a position indeed. President Erdoğan also said that the thing has not started with Iran targeting Israeli soil. What happened in Damascus was that Israel targeted a diplomatic mission belonging to Iran. And international community did not raise its voice enough to condemn the violation of the Vienna Conventions.  This is one of the first points of President Erdoğan, followed by another statement. He was resembling Hamas to national forces of Türkiye which was fighting against the invader forces. And he said that “because of saying this, I will pay a price”. How do you think President Erdoğan’s definition of Israeli administration and Netanyahu as “bloodthirsty” and blaming them as the main responsible for the anxiety provoking tension on the night of April 13? And how do evaluate these statements?

My understanding is that Washington did ask Minister Fidan and Türkiye’s Foreign Ministry to deliver message to Iran before it launched the missile strike asking Iran not to respond in a dramatic way. And in fact, the Turkish government publicly said similar things.  So, I think Washington now has turned a new page in relations with Ankara and is working together more with Ankara on difficult issues in the Middle East where frankly Türkiye’s expertise is so deep and, in many cases, deeper than that of the United States.   It’s nothing new for President Erdoğan to speak positively about Hamas.  He’s done that since I was working way back when in the White House 2001 to 2004 and then when I was back at the state department in two between 2006-2009, he continuously spoke positively about Hamas as a liberation movement.

So, this is not something which is going to impact relations between Türkiye and the US.

No, and I’m making the argument quite the opposite. The relationship is improving between Türkiye and the United States now. So, Washington expects President Erdoğan to make those sorts of statements, doesn’t like them. But I think they respect President Erdoğan’s right to have whatever view he has. It’s been my view for a while that President Erdoğan would like Türkiye to be able to play not only a mediation role but maybe even be a guarantor of whatever political settlement comes out of this horrible war at some point, who knows when. And if you go back to the early weeks after the October 7th Hamas attack on Israelis, Hamas even said that Türkiye and president Erdoğan had played an important role in the freeing of some hostages from Thailand. So, clearly there’s a useful role that Türkiye can play. I think Washington is starting to appreciate that. So, no matter how harsh President Erdoğan’s rhetoric is as long as Türkiye wants to help bring about a ceasefire and then a lasting political settlement afterward.  I think Washington will value that.

You said that the relations are improving already. We have solved F-16 crisis so that’s number one thing for Türkiye. While Pentagon officials frequently emphasize the importance of Türkiye for NATO.  And one of the crisis, now, has been resolved.  However, Washington support for YPG continues. And that’s one of the main problems which is going to stay at the of the agenda for Ankara. Still messages are being given that bilateral relations have entered a new phase.  But nothing is changing regarding this terror issue. I mean the US doesn’t consider YPG as PKK’s Syrian branch as Ankara does. How does Washington position Ankara in the tension in the Middle East given that YPG is one of the problems actually in the Middle East, which is in Syria and directly producing problem for Türkiye, let’s say, in the border?

Well, one person’s terrorist group is another person’s liberation group.  As you mentioned before President Erdoğan calls Hamas a liberation force but it clearly committed terrorist atrocities against so many Israelis.  It has committed terrorist acts.  I personally believe that the YPG is a terrorist organization. It is the PKK.  It just happens to be in Syria. The United States has been violating its own policy of not working with one terrorist group against another one in a very disingenuous way. And I know for a fact that when the United States was first deciding in the Obama period to work with the YPG. They totally disingenuously decided to rename it as the Syrian Democratic forces, knowing the YPG is a terrorist organization.  So, that was an instance of really bad faith. So, why did that happen? The reason that happened is twofold. One is that the United States didn’t have anyone else willing to go on the ground and fight ISIS rather than US soldiers. And frankly if YPG or PKK terrorists or soldiers, whatever they want to call them, are willing to fight and die rather than American soldiers. That’s a good deal from Washington’s perspective. The other problem, though, is ignorance in Washington about Türkiye in general. As great and big and powerful a country as this one is, as Türkiye is, it’s not known very well in the United States. And it’s the realm of specialists basically rather than general experts on foreign affairs.  General experts on foreign affairs they all have an opinion about Russia, China, Middle East but not many of them know anything about Türkiye. So, the debate has been manipulated in the United States against Türkiye often by various diasporas present in Washington. And they’ve persuaded the foreign policy elites not inside the state department or White House but in think-tanks and journalism that Türkiye is targeting not a terrorist organization in terms of the YPG but all Syrian Kurds. It’s crazy how very educated smart people have been manipulated and they don’t differentiate between YPG and the peaceful Kurdish population in Syria. So, that problem is going to fester for a while but what is true is that both capitals have decided to improve relations. The F-16 issue we should keep in mind, it wasn’t sort of a crisis that came up on its own. It was an attempt by the United States to offer a way to deescalate the dispute which was a political crisis between Ankara and Washington over Türkiye’s purchase of S-400s the air defense system from Russia. And then the US is kicking out Türkiye of the F-35 fighter program.  So the idea was “okay, let’s find something that Türkiye already has.”  A very capable weapon system F-16s and get help Türkiye procure more of those and then use the money that had already spent on the F-35 program to buy something else it needs. That was a de-escalatory step by the United States.

Actually this wasn’t among my questions but you said that maybe the diplomats and the bureaucrats in the US  do not know enough about Türkiye.  Maybe, they do not know what is true what is false in the region. Intellectuals and journalists… What should Türkiye do about that? Because Türkiye is not just a Middle Eastern country. And it’s not Syria, it’s not Egypt or whatever. But the thing is, I mean Türkiye and the US are allies in NATO.  How comes this image or the true information, correct information were not being able to be imposed among your intellectuals and diplomats and state workers. What is the reason for that? And as a policy recommendation as finding you as a former diplomat I would like to ask you.  What would you recommend to Türkiye to come up with that?

Why is there not a high level of expertise on Türkiye in elite circles of foreign policy intellectual circles? It’s they’ve been focusing on other countries as important as Türkiye seems to us.  It doesn’t seem that way in Washington sometimes. And part of the reason why that’s the case is what I mentioned before about diaspora organizations who manipulate, feed distorted information into the debate. And that problem grew worse in recent years, especially, you remember back in 2020 in the summer.

You’re mainly referring to Armenian diaspora and FETÖ.

FETÖ, Armenian American diaspora and Greek American diaspora… And really FETÖ

has done a great job in cultivating members of Congress and even state legislature and bringing them on trips to Türkiye and feeding them and funding them… So, the debate got distorted and then as I was saying, will you go back to the summer of 2020 when there was such great tension in the Eastern Mediterranean, understandably Ankara said “enough is enough”.  “Nobody’s listening to us. We’re just going to flex our muscles in the Eastern Mediterranean and exercise our rights.” And then these organizations and then France, in particular President Macron used that Turkish exercising of the country’s rights to say this: “See, Türkiye is provocative. It’s ignoring international law, it’s violating international law”. And then that created a firestorm of misunderstanding to  President Erdoğan’s credit after Angela Merkel intervened in July or August of 2020, Ankara de-escalated in the Eastern Mediterranean. As you remember, it pulled out it’s oil and gas exploration ships and they haven’t come back to the Eastern Mediterranean. And then, since then Türkiye has launched a diplomatic campaign to improve relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE as we all know about.  And it is playing a constructive role in Azerbaijan with the membership in the peacekeeping Observation Center together with Russian forces which are withdrawing now by the way. So, what Türkiye needs to do, I think, is what it’s doing: be active and constructive and avoid putting itself in a position where Türkiye’s, let’s say, I don’t want to say enemies but foes, want to take advantage and manipulate the story to say that: “See, this proves that Türkiye is aggressive and untrustworthy.”  So, be constructive as Türkiye is doing now.

So, going back to Erdoğan’s statements regarding Hamas, he said that “I am telling all these, but I know that I’m going to pay a price.”  What do you think about the price he talking about? Is he referring to the reactions of the US or what?

I don’t know. I don’t know what was in his mind then. But I don’t think he has to worry about any reactions from the United States. I mean the Biden Administration is putting a lot of pressure on Netanyahu to stop murdering civilians in Gaza. So, strategically, I think at the moment, Türkiye and the US are on the same general page even if President Erdoğan’s rhetoric is very harsh against Israel or supportive of Hamas. So, I don’t think he’ll pay any a price. He may, I don’t know, what he maybe, he’s worried, he’s going to get criticized by the media in western countries. But he doesn’t really care about that.

Would you comment about Türkiye’s trade restrictions on Israel?

So, if we think back to the Mavi Marmara incident back in, I guess, it was June of 2010. That led to a real breakdown in relations between Türkiye and Israel.  But in the decade that followed, the level of trade between the two countries increased by over 200%, more than doubled. So, even though the diplomatic and political relations were terrible, the trade continued.  In fact, Israel imports much of its crude oil via the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline. So, there’s a vital continuing economic link between Türkiye and Israel. I think private business and state companies in Türkiye wanted to keep on profiting from trade with Israel.  But now, I guess it’s gotten to a point where the government here felt too much pressure from the opposition and internally and even from the MHP for example to be harder on Israel and not to allow for business as usual.  Meaning, letting the trade just continue as it always had been.  So, now, I mean already before Türkiye imposed this prohibition on, I think, 54 categories of products to Israel. Already since Israel’s attacks on Gaza, trade had decreased by like 20, 21, 21.5%. So, already going down. Now, the difference is private companies will not be able to export certain products to Israel. I don’t think that’s going to be that consequential for the Israeli economy because, I don’t have in my head what all the products area. But there’s jet fuel. There are other sources of that.  There’s marble and some other manufactured goods. So, you know Türkiye wasn’t a huge trading partner for Israel and vice versa.

Israel is a small trading partner for Türkiye but politically it’s a significant gesture by Türkiye.

I’ve got a few questions on NATO.  NATO plans to build a 10,000 strong base in Romania and a 5,000 strong base in Bulgaria. What are the risks of an increased alliance presence in the Black Sea?  How do you see Türkiye’s role in this?

I look at it the opposite way.  I think without that sort of us NATO military presence in the Black Sea the security of Türkiye and all the Black Sea countries and all of us will be much lower because of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. If Russia is able to continue and quote unquote “win” which means it’s able to hang on to Crimea, it’s able to hang on to Donbass and move beyond that to attack Odessa, it will keep going. It will go on to Moldova. It will move back in a bigger way into Georgia. And I am convinced it will move into one of the Baltic states.  I used to run a think tank in Tallinn, Estonia and after Russia’s previous invasion of Ukraine in 2014 we were very focused on how Russia might do something similar in a NATO member state as it did in in Crimea and Donbas, which is to say we’re not invading and we we’re just there’s some little green men that are occupying some administrative centers. It’s not the Russian military until Putin admitted it was the Russian military.  So, if he was able to do that in, let’s say, Eastern Estonia, he could take NATO territory under control, deny that Russia is doing it, and then later say, “yes, it is”, “it is we who are there”.  And then NATO has to decide “Do we want to have a nuclear war potentially with Russia over some small bit of territory in whatever Eastern Latvia?”   And in that case NATO’s Article 5, the collective security pledge is dead. So, then that will have a huge impact for all of NATO including Türkiye.  If Russia attacks and captures Odessa, the economy of Ukraine will be devastated. And if it goes on to Moldova, the security risks in this part of the world will be huge. So, the presence of US military forces in Romania and Bulgaria will send a powerful deterrent to Russia saying “If you keep going, we will come after you.”

Talking about Ukraine, the war fatigue has set in other Western countries. Is it time for negotiations, do you think or should we expect a new escalation of the war?

Well, Putin clearly doesn’t want a real negotiation. He wants to keep up the war and Zelensky doesn’t feel politically ready for it either.  He feels that it’s not what the Ukrainians want. So, the parties have to decide whether or not they want.

Do you think Zelensky is really deciding by himself? I don’t mean he is controlled but most of the time we observe that he’s directed by the US actually. I mean, what I’m asking is as long as the West is going to finance Ukraine, the war will continue, right?

Yes, I do, of course, he is. He is democratically elected. Who’s controlling him?  No, that’s ridiculous. That’s Russian propaganda. And as long as Russia continues to make its entire economy focused on invading a country and occupying it, the war will continue. Russia’s violating international law. Stop the Invasion.  It had no reason to invade Ukraine. There’s no reason at all. So, if it stops the Invasion, then everything will be fine. So, no, the United States as you said is not controlling Zelensky. It’s not urging them to go forward. It’s trying to respond to the Ukrainian people’s request and demand that the United States provides assistance. So that they can fight and not be exterminated which is what Putin has said he wants to do. He said he wants to exterminate Ukraine as a country. And we see the war crimes that Russia has committed already, abducting children.  Putin is indicted for war crimes, right? So, abducting children the horrible atrocities in the beginning of the war, north of Kiev in Bucha and elsewhere. So, I don’t know why anyone would expect that if Ukraine just said “okay, we stop fighting”, Russia would say “oh good, we want peace”. They will keep going.

Do you really think that this is a frozen war now or do you expect an escalation?

I expect that Russia will continue escalating and Ukraine once it gets I think it will get this assistance, it will then be able to stop the Russian escalation and will increase its attacks on Russian military targets.

Okay, let’s also talk about Russia and Türkiye relations mainly on energy.  Russia says that it may carry out joint studies from time to time to make Türkiye as an energy hub for Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated this several times. Especially considering the energy bottleneck that Europe faced after the Ukrainian War, wouldn’t Türkiye becoming an energy distribution center benefit the western conflict?

It would that’s long been a goal of US foreign policy. I worked on it beginning back in 1998 to help Türkiye diversify its suppliers. It helped Türkiye diversify away from its dependence on Russia. By the way, it was deep corruption in Türkiye in the government then that allowed the Blue Stream (Russia to Türkiye) pipeline agreement to happen. It was approved by a former minister of state without informing the foreign ministry of Türkiye or the General Staff because of corruption. And I know for a fact. I know the people involved they were getting paid huge amounts under the table by Russia to create this pipeline that perpetuated Türkiye’s dependence on Russian gas.  Same thing is happening now. So, for Türkiye, from my perspective, it would be great if it really was an energy transit and an energy trading hub whereby it was receiving natural gas from multiple directions from Azerbaijan, from Iran, liquid natural gas from anywhere, from the United States, from Qatar, from Nigeria, from Algeria and of course some Russian gas. And I think, that’s president Erdoğan’s vision. That’s not Putin’s vision. Putin’s vision is to make Türkiye a hub or a transit route for Russian natural gas. I’m on the board of the biggest private natural gas distribution company in Bulgaria. So, I watch Bulgarian politics very closely. Right now there is a huge political scandal in Bulgaria because the secret agreement was leaked whereby the Bulgarian government together with the government here agreed that Turk stream would be a way for Russia to expand its natural gas imports to Hungary and to Serbia looking ahead to when the EU has said it’s going to stop taking natural gas from Russia in 2027.  And so, Türkiye has to decide where does it want to be on this debate.  Does it want to be facilitating Russia through these secret and often corrupt agreements for bigger pipeline capacity? Or does it really want to be a trading hub where everybody gets to compete and not in a way that undermines the European Union’s own decisions on not taking more Russian gas. That’s a tough decision. It’s not for me to say. That’s Türkiye’s decision.

You’re talking about so many things which might be undisclosed for some other people.  Can you give more details on that?

Yes, I can send you articles. And right now about the debate happening in Bulgaria.  So just you can go online and look at the Bulgarian news services. Or there was just a major public hearing about the agreement between BOTAŞ on one side and then BulgarGaz and Bulgartransgaz. So, all state-owned monopolies which does what, which monopolizes the interconnection of natural gas pipelines between Türkiye and Bulgaria, and doesn’t allow any private sector competition to get into the movement of gas from essentially from Türkiye into the EU. For Türkiye, for BOTAŞ that’s good because it’s good business for BOTAŞ, it’s a state monopoly. For Russia, it’s essential. It’s the way Russia is going to have a back door to keep bringing natural gas into the EU after 2027. Because private companies like the one I work with we want to bring in non-Russian natural gas.  We want to have competitive trading or even there could be some Russian natural gas but there needs to be non-monopolistic use of all this infrastructure. So, you could look that up there was a there public hearing two weeks ago on this in Bulgaria by think-tanks and by journalists.  But the debate is Raging right now in Bulgarian politics. There’s a brand-new caretaker government and there’s a big argument over these arrangements right now.

You were the ambassador to Azerbaijan and you lived in Baku. So, I want to talk about Southern Caucuses and the tensions there. While the Armenian administration expands its relations with the EU and the USA and at the same time Azerbaijan continues to be a good partner for Europe especially in the field of energy, as we’re speaking now, considering  Russia and Iran as factors what is Washington’s basic plan in South Caususes?

I was also the US mediator between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the Karabakh conflict and oversaw our relations with the region for a long long time.  I think number one thing what Washington wants is peace, a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia. And it has publicly repeatedly said “we’re happy as Washington to play the role of a mediator or facilitator, we don’t have to, what matters to us is that somebody’s playing that role”. Charles Michel of course the European Council president has done a great job of that. So, the desire of the US is the peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia and then agreement to define their international border which they’ve never done since the Soviet Union collapsed. At the same time, as you said, the United States and EU are responding to Prime Minister Pashinyan and his Foreign Minister Mirzoyan statements recently:  Number one: Armenia doesn’t want to be in Russia’s military alliance anymore, the Collective Security Treaty Organization. It, I think, incorrectly believes that the Russian peacekeepers on the ground in Azerbaijan were obligated to come to Armenia’s defense during the Second Karabakh war in 2020 and then last September when Azerbaijan finally regained all of its territory that had been occupied by Armenia.  I actually don’t think Russian peacekeepers had any obligation to get involved. Nonetheless, politically it’s become the point that Pashinyan is saying we want to leave the Russian Military Alliance. Armenia is going to join the International Criminal Court which obligates it to arrest Vladimir Putin if he’s ever on the territory of Armenia. And Pashinyan and the Foreign Minister of Armenia have said we want to join the European Union.  If you remember back to the Maidan in Ukraine in 2014, it was Ukraine’s desire to join the European Union or 34:15 at least to sign an association agreement that kicked off all of this craziness two wars and two Russian invasions.  So, it’s a very risky thing that Armenia’s leadership is doing right now saying “we want to be with Europe, we don’t want to be with Russia”. A lot of people in Armenia hate that, Russia hates that, and so Russia responded in the last couple of days by saying “we’re going to remove our peacekeepers from Azerbaijan”.  “Armenia now you’re on your own”. So, Armenia’s leadership is making a strategic choice to be with quote unquote “the West”.

Azerbaijan’s leadership is more careful.  It was the leader for four or five years of the non-aligned movement. It does not aspire to join any or align with any block neither with Russia nor with Iran nor with the West.  And, so, I understand why in Azerbaijan, people are upset that the US and the EU are now saying “okay, Armenia, you can come our way but Azerbaijan has decided to stay on its own.”  So, it’s actually Azerbaijan is getting what it wants. It’s being respected as a good partner of the European Union as you said, 35:20 respected as an independent non-aligned country.  As long as it has a peace treaty with Armenia and Armenia can’t threaten militarily. As long as Armenia finally implements its pledges to open up all the transport corridors linking Armenia with Azerbaijan and Armenia with Türkiye, Azerbaijan should be happy. I think it will be once there’s a peace treaty and once there’s a border agreement defining the border.

One of the main things are now is Zengezur Corridor. Do you believe it’s going to happen? Because Armenia besides Iran, they are just resisting this not to happen.

Well, Pashinyan is not resisting it, but his political opponents are. He is opposed by the so-called Karabakh Clan, former leaders from Karabakh as well as nationalists and the Dashnaktsutyuns, so-call Armenian revolutionary front who want conflict with Azerbaijan. They benefit personally either through money or political support as long as the conflict with Azerbaijan is unresolved. Some of them want to recreate the medieval state of Greater Armenia which means taking territory from Eastern Türkiye, from Azerbaijan, from Iran.  I think that’s crazy but some of them really want to do that.  And some of them again are just opportunistic and they get money from emotional members of the diasporas whether it be in Russia or France or the United States who think “yes, we need to resurrect that great old medieval homeland of Armenia”.   Clearly those revanchist forces in Armenia are not gone, they’re still there but they’re weaker and weaker with every day.

The last question about Georgia. So, do you think the EU is opening doors to Georgia because now they were given the candidacy status? I talked to Toivo Claar, the special representative for South Caucasus and the Crisis in Georgia. He says that this is not really going to happen in near future. So, what is your take? Georgia is also in between between being a post-Soviet country and a European country.

So, Georgia was a vibrant democracy before 2012 and clearly had chosen the Western path. It wanted to be a member of NATO, it wanted to be a member of the European Union. And over 80,5% of the population of Georgia still wants those two things. But its current government does not want those things.  Its current government wants to have strong relations with Russia. It’s therefore canceled some big infrastructure projects that would have helped Georgia integrate with Europe whether it be the Anaklia port in Western Georgia or the Caucasus online internet service provider privatization.  Both projects would have helped Georgia again connect its economy in many different ways with that of the European Union. When a year or so ago, when Ukraine and Moldova were offered EU candidacy status Georgia was not. And that’s because of deep dysfunctionality in Georgia’s political system.  And then the Georgian government made some pledges to enact some reforms and then the European Union said “okay, now you can be a candidate”.  But now the main issue that the Georgian government agreed to accept which was not to have or not to move forward a Russia’s style of agent registration rule is back on the political agenda. So, now the Georgian government has said “we promised the EU we wouldn’t do this, we’re going to do it anyway.”   “We’re going to push forward this foreign agent registration act.” So, the European spokespersons have now come out even Charles Michel in recent days saying “Georgia can’t possibly be on a European path if it’s going to take steps like this.” So, I think it’s derailed again the Georgian aspirations which the population overwhelmingly wants to join the European Union is derailed for now. And there’s a political stalemate in Georgia.

As far as I guess, now Georgia is going to be going through the process where Türkiye is going through in the past, four decades now, just pending.

Pending but it’s different.  I mean, I think there are a lot of European leaders who don’t think Türkiye should ever be a member of the European Union because of their anti-Turkish feeling.  It was (Jacques Delors) former, leader of France who said famously in late 70s, early 80s, “European Union is a Judeo-Christian organization.” Georgia doesn’t have that problem right and Georgia is much less known. I think there is strong general support for Georgia to become closer to the European Union within the European Union.  What’s more controversial is Georgia’s membership in NATO with Germany having historically been opposed to that.  Because Germany’s afraid of Russia. Germany is such a double standard. They say “well, we don’t want a country that has a territorial dispute with Russia becoming a member of NATO because that could bring NATO into conflict with Russia”. But Germany itself had a territorial dispute with Russia when it became a NATO member. It was called East Germany which was occupied by Russian military forces.

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INTERVIEW

The West doesn’t have a project, we should build a platform of peace and solidarity

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From April 18 to 21, hundreds of organizations and social movements from Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia, the Middle East and Europe came together in Caracas, Venezuela, to discuss the problems, dangers, alternatives, struggles and most important issues that social organizations are facing today. In this framework, we had the opportunity to listen and learn from their collective experiences and from the great Indian intellectual Vijay Prashad, who gave us an overview of how the world is today and also the alternatives we have to confront what he calls “a decadent hyper-imperialism”.

Vijay Prashad and Venezuelan journalist Micaela Ovelar

Barbarism characterizes the world today: The Palestinian genocide

We live in a very barbaric world. It’s unimaginable, the barbarism that dominated the world today. The barbarism of apartheid Israel’s genocidal war on the Palestinian people. Now, 20 years ago, the barbarism of US imperialism against the Iraqi people, an illegal war, actually, a violation of the United Nations charter. Maybe 2 million people killed, displaced, injured. Not one Iraqi family was untouched by that war. Now, in Gaza, at least 300 families have been wiped out from history. 300 families their family names will not carry forward. That is the brutality of the Israeli bombing.

It’s actually quite stanning how brutal this bombing has been. It’s hard to explain to people who haven’t been into a war zone how ugly war is. War is loud. There’s a lot of noise. War in a modern period is ugly because a lot of toxic chemicals come out of buildings when they come down. And those chemicals poisoned generations of people. In Fallujah, In Ramadi, in Iraq, the United States used depleted uranium. Children are still born in Iraq with defects from that depleted uranium. That is the brutality, the barbarism of imperialism. That is the attitude of Monroism.

Monroism is barbaric. It’s brutal. Sometimes the word imperialism doesn’t capture emotionally how brutal imperialism actually is. How brutal, how barbaric, how inconsiderate it is towards the lives of ordinary people. 50,000 people have probably already been killed in Gaza. There are 7000 people missing, of them 5000 children. 15,000 children died in Gaza. A generation lost. That is the brutality, the callousness of imperialism.

The Israel’s war against Palestine and Iran

Well, Israel has been in the middle of a brutal genocidal war against the Palestinian people and people around the world have stood up to say Israel can’t do this to the Iranians. Some of those people, of course, have been the people of Iran, the people of other countries in the Middle East.

The Israelis, knowing that, attacked the Iranian embassy in Syria, in Damascus, and that’s the reason why Iran had to strike Israel militarily, because Israel first struck an Iranian embassy illegally in Syria.

I hope that the war between Israel doesn’t accelerate to include Syria and Iran in other countries, including Turkey, perhaps. I hope we are able to calm things down, have a cease fire, let the Palestinians recover. That’s the priority.

How to understand hyper-imperialism

We use the term hyper imperialism to capture some of that burtality of that barbarism. You see, the thing about hyper imperialism laid by the United States is that it is dangerous and it is decadent. It is both dangerous and decadent. I think it’s very important for us to recognize the danger and decadence of hyper imperialism. 75% of the share of global military spending is spent by the United States, its Nato allies, and its close Nato allies like Japan and South Korea.

75% of global military spending is spent by the United States and its allies.

I want you to think about that. When people say, well, China is a threat. When people say Russia is a threat. What are they talking about? China is a threat? That’s not a factual statement. China is responsible for 10% of world military spending. The United States and its allies are responsible for 75% of world militar spending. How is China a threat? How is Russia a threat? How is Venezuela threat? How is Cuba a threat?

The United States is the real threat

There is only one threat to the planet now, and that threat is hyper imperialism structure led by the United States and its close European allies. That’s the real threat. The only terrorist we have on the planet is the US government and its close allies, including Israel. That’s the terrorist. That’s the only terrorists. That’s the biggest threat to the planet that we face today.

But it’s worse than that. That’s dangerous, yes, but it’s worse than just being dangerous. It’s much worse than that. It’s also decadent. Look at the people who are leading the West: President Joe Biden (USA), Chancellor Olaf Scholz (Germany), Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (UK), President Emmanuel Macron (France), not one of these people has earned the respect of the people anywhere in the world. How is it possible that these countries with their immense wealth cannot produce even one intelligent world leader?

How is it possible that every single leader of the global North is mediocre? You see, it is no about Biden’s age. There are lots of people who are 80 years old, 90 years old, extremely lucid. It’s not about the age. It’s not about Donald Trump’s brutal manners. There are lots of brutal people in the world. They’re not all like Donald Trump.

It’s not about Olaf Scholz, who we don’t even see. When Olaf Scholz comes on a stage, it’s almost like he’s a shadow. He doesn’t even exist, at least, Angela Merkel has personality. Olaf Scholz doesn’t even have a personality. How is that France produced Emmanuel Macron? The country of the French Revolution. The country of the Paris Commune. The country of philosophers like Jean Paul Sartre.

Europe is not the solution either: They don’t have a project

Europe is not producing philosophers anymore. There is no Hegel in Germany today. There is no Sarte in France. There are no real intellectuals produced in the United States. The problem is in the age of Biden. The lack of personality of Schulz. The problem is that they don’t have a project. They don’t know what they’re doing. They don’t understand the dilemmas of humanity. They don’t understand how you need to transcend poverty.

They don’t understand what it means to have a real project to educate our children or helping the world. We saw the complete collapse of the global North during the COVID pandemic, but before the COVID pandemic, after the financial crisis of 2008, from which they have never recovered in that long term depression, we watched the global North struggle. With things like homelessness, with things like racism, homophobia and so on.

USA and Europe don’t have a project.

They don’t have any fresh ideas. In that sense, they are decadent. They’re not only dangerous, but they’re decadent. Hyper imperialism is dangerous. Yes. They don’t know how to build bridges anymore. They know how to blow them up. Hyper imperialism is dangerous, but it’s decadent as well. They can blow up the bridge. They don’t like building. They don’t have the money in public hands to build bridges. They don’t know how to build schools anymore. They don’t know what education is anymore. They don’t understand health care. The decadent aspect of hyper imperialism is very important for us.

It’s important for us because they are trying to convince the world because, they don’t have a project, that there’s no future. They’re trying to convince the world that what you have is what you have. What you have now is what you will have forever. Nothing can be improved. You should be lucky to have what you have now. Because it can get worse. They are decadent because they don’t have a future to offer for people.

Alternatives: Build a Platform of Peace and Solidarity

Those of us who believe in the people, those of us who believe in the possibility of a future, it’s not enough for us to just criticize imperialism. It’s not enough for us to just criticize the danger and decadence of the world leaders in the global North. It’s not enough to just criticize them.

We are very good at criticizing. We are the best anti-capitalist critics. We know how to say no. We know how to fight with them. We know how to say no to them. But if we want to build the biggest movement around the world, we have to have something through which people can say, yes, we need to have a project.

We need to have people build optimism. We need to be optimistic. I mean, you people to be optimistic not only for the future. But we need them to be all optimistic in our project. They need to believe that socialism is possible and necessary. It’s not enough to say another world is possible. We have to say socialism is necessary. Not only is socialism necessary, but socialism is possible.

It’s very important for people from around the world to come together on a platform of peace and a platform of development and reject war. We need to solve the problems of poverty, the problems of lack of education, problems of lack of health support. We need to solve those problems. We shouldn’t be wasting all our wealth on war. And that’s why it’s important for us to come together.

The Bolivarian Revolution and Hugo Chavez

Venezuela has been in the middle of a big struggle since 1998, when Hugo Chavez appeared to be a presidential candidate. Since that time, Venezuela has put a flag into the soil, insisting that the world can be different, that the problems we face now can be overcome. And so since 1998, Venezuela has been a place which has invited people from around the world to gather and think seriously about solving the world’s problems of the world.

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INTERVIEW

‘There is a migrant problem in Türkiye; if the situation in Afghanistan goes worse, it will be a serious problem’

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Amir Mohammad Ramin, Afghanistan’s ambassador to Ankara, spoke to Harici. Assessing the economic, social, security and political problems in Afghanistan, Ambassador Ramin pointed to the role of the United States, which “came to the country without notice” and then left without any commitment to the economy, stability and security.

Ambassador Amir Mohammad Ramin answered our questions on the current situation in Afghanistan, relations with regional countries, security issues, recognition negotiations and foreign investment.

The US withdrew from Afghanistan, but left a big economic crisis behind and at the same time, hunger, poverty, epidemic, diseases, and many other problems remain. How do you think Afghanistan will recover? 

Unfortunately, contrary to the expectations of the general public and the people in Afghanistan, the United States came to Afghanistan without any prior notice through, of course, a UN Security Council Resolution, but also left Afghanistan very abruptly without any sort of commitment for Afghanistan’s economic stability, future stability and development. In Afghanistan, the economic situation has died. People are in a difficult situation. And the reason is that we have the development situation in post-August 2021. The new de-facto authority has not been recognized. And there are no formal economic relations with Afghanistan right now. And in certain ways, Afghanistan remains under sanctions. For example, the SWIFT doesn’t work in Afghanistan. So for all these reasons, Afghanistan is going through a very difficult time. There’s no doubt. When it comes to the general public’s rights, human rights, it is a very dire situation. So what can be done that the situation in Afghanistan can get better? The best thing would be to look at this from two perspectives. One, domestic perspective. Domestic perspective, I think the de-facto authorities need to open up, engage with the public, try to create a rule-based system, try to create a constitution, try to define the rules, regulations and the rights of the people. Unless peoples are given their important rights and unless people are listened to, it will not be difficult to address the situation in Afghanistan. The issue of domestic legitimacy is very important. And that will only happen through a kind of mutual interaction and understanding between the people and these de-facto authorities. The second thing is that once domestic legitimacy is addressed, it comes to regional and international legitimacy. And that, I’m sure, will naturally come once the issue of Afghanistan internally happens. But given the dire situation in Afghanistan right now, it is very important that we do not forget the 35 million or 40 million people, we need to get to their humanitarian needs. And that’s why I continue to encourage all international actors to continue to address the humanitarian needs of people in Afghanistan. In this regard, Türkiye is doing well. I’m very grateful to the humanitarian assistance that Türkiye is sending to Afghanistan right now. More than 60 organizations are active in Afghanistan. Most of them are involved in two areas, humanitarian assistance as well as education, which both are very important. But in the short term, humanitarian assistance, in the long term, the issue of education are vital because education is a long-term investment for Afghanistan. So those are my views on how the situation could get better and go forward.

The US confiscated Afghanistan’s money, so to speak. It is obvious that Afghanistan needs this money very much right now. Will there be an international initiative regarding this? How do you evaluate this incident?

The continues to remain frozen. But my understanding is that there are ways to make sure that the money can get to the people. And their needs can be addressed. There has to be certain ways to be used. I myself am not directly involved in this, because I know that some of our diplomatic missions in New York and Geneva, they are following these developments. But I personally do not follow. But it is my wish that if there will be a way to make sure that the needs of the people are addressed to the money, it will be very good. But the long term and actual solution will be to make sure that the situation in Afghanistan gets better. It gets changed. 

Let’s talk about the recognition efforts of the Taliban government. Iran, Russia, China and Pakistan, they have good relations with these neighbors. But it doesn’t seem that there will be as an official recognition of Taliban government. Do you have information, what is the calendar of Taliban government about recognition? Which clues do you get from other governments? 

So, my understanding is that recognition is legitimacy, international legitimacy. So, unless the issue of domestic legitimacy is addressed, -and it’s in this 21st century, governments has to have the support and backing of the people- and there has to be some principles on how a government indicates that it has the backing of the people; you cannot simply say that I have the support of the people without any indicators. So, there has to be a way. 

What is that way for Afghanistan?

So, the best thing would be to make sure that there is a framework in which there is some degree of public participation regarding the issue of domestic legitimacy. Unless that is not addressed, it will be difficult to see that international recognition will happen anytime soon. At the same time, I don’t think it will happen formally or officially anytime soon. Unles some very substantial issues are addressed such as the issue of the Afghanistan people’s rights, women’s rights and the issue of women’s access to education, women’s participation in the workforce, women’s participation in the society. Unless these issues are addressed, there will be, I think, no immediate solution to the issue of recognition, in my opinion. So, we don’t have a timeline for it.

Can you comment on Russia’s initiative that Russia announced they will invite Taliban government to Islamic summit in Kazan?  What will that bring? What is Russia’s aim and what will that bring to Taliban government? 

I think, it’s, what will happen is that it is sort of something that has happened over the past few years. There has been participation in various events, but it has not led to anything substantial or any major breakthroughs. For example, in 2022, in March, the Taliban delegation came and participated in the Antalya Diplomacy Forum. But nothing substantial came out of it. So, Kazan and the participation in the Islamic World Conference will only be a participation. I don’t think it will bring anything other than participation. 

But what Russia wants to do is to put a stance for Taliban. Is it true?

So, in my understanding, Russia has security concerns about Afghanistan, specifically when it comes to Daesh, because recently there was a Daesh-Khorasan attack in Russia. So, for Russia, as well as other neighboring countries, such as, although Russia is not a neighboring country, but it is impacted by the situation. For Iran, for Pakistan, I think for them is to see how they can manage the situation to make sure that it does not get much more difficult or worse. For example, imagine if the security situation gets bad or worse in Afghanistan, these neighboring countries and regional countries, including Türkiye, will be the first to be impacted. And that’s why they maintain some degree of engagement to make sure that the situation is maintained. So, it will be a continuation of the status-quo. It will not be a major breakthrough.

What about the foreign investments into Afghanistan? China and Russia have several projects. There is a railway project between Russia and Afghanistan, which is also involving some Turkish companies. What do we know about these projects? Can you just enlighten us on that? 

So, yes, the Chinese have made investments. Iran has made some investments in Afghanistan. Russia has made some investments. Turkish companies have invested in certain sectors in Afghanistan. My understanding is that there are about 11 different companies who have invested in Afghanistan, Turkish companies. Construction, but also hydropower, solar power… So, these are some of the sectors that they have invested. The Russians and Chinese are interested in mines. They have also invested in the oil. The Iranians have also had some investment in mines. The Russians would like to see what they can do. They don’t have any major investments yet. 

Does Russia not have any major investments? 

Any major investments, no, but right now the investment that they have made on the railway is one of the first ones. It is signed. And they will gradually start to construct. This will be the railway connectivity from Afghanistan to Iran, western Afghanistan, Herat province. And this could also potentially in the future connect Afghanistan to Türkiye. Because it could potentially come all the way to Türkiye. 

How does it connect Russia and Afghanistan? 

Right now, the other parts to connect all the way to Russia has not started. Because this is only the part that connects Afghanistan to Iran. In the future, once the situation is better, then of course this will go all the way to the two other countries that it will connect to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. And then through Uzbekistan and Tajikistan it will potentially go all the way to both China and Russia. But that is not in an immediate plan. 

What is the calendar? 

Usually it’s quite difficult to talk about calendars in Afghanistan because the railway project that we are now discussing, this was discussed about 15 years ago. And because of the security incidents, it has always been delayed. Depending on the resources, investment and commitment by the companies and the security situation overall, I think, if the situation will be okay, the investment proceeds, the commitments for the investment proceeds, my understanding is that in the next five years there will be connectivity between Uzbekistan, Pakistan via Afghanistan, as well as way to Iran. And this will help to connect other countries such as Russia, China and India.

You have security problems regarding migrants in Pakistan? So, how do you evaluate this situation? And regarding the security of Afghanistan, is it actually very meaningful for the security of the whole region? This is what Ambassador Husrav Noziri, the Secretary General of Economic Cooperation Organization told me. He underlines that Afghanistan must be secure for the rest of the region to be secure. How will Afghanistan deal with these security problems? 

So, some part of the security problem is in Afghanistan. Another part is also regional, especially in Pakistan. In Pakistan they have ungoverned areas, like in Waziristan, federally administrative areas. The Pakistani army is not in full control of those areas. And that’s why those areas are now inside the Pakistani soil and territory has turned into a safe haven for some of the groups, including the TTP as well as the Daesh. I think also there are some areas in neighboring Iran that’s also the same. On April 4th, we had a terrorist attack in Iran by Jaysh al-Adl, which is called the Troops of Justice. So, there are some areas that are not strictly controlled by the three countries in the border areas and regions of the three countries. My understanding is that it will require close cooperation by the countries to make sure that the ungoverned areas are reduced. And these ungoverned areas are also inside Pakistan, because this is a very mountainous area like Waziristan and other places. But if the security situation in Afghanistan improves, it will have impacts on neighboring countries. If the security situation in neighboring countries such as Pakistan, improves, it will have an impact on the security situation in Afghanistan.

You were appointed as Ambassador to Ankara by the previous government. Have you been working with Taliban government?

We have 35 million citizens in Afghanistan. We need to help them. We need to be responsible for them. We do consular works, work for economic development and humanitarian assistance. Because of this, we work with the Taliban. I work for Afghanistan. Turkish mission in Kabul also work for people in Afghanistan very actively. Türkiye’s consulate is in Mazar-i-Sherif also works actively.

Do you have any diplomats appointed by the Taliban government in the Embassy?

We have two diplomats. One of them works in the field of law. For example, he works with the prisons and the law officers regarding the legal issues of Afghan citizens. The second one works in the economic field. He is focused on investments and humanitarian assistance. 

Decree of the first Turkish Ambassador appointed to Afghanistan, signed by Atatürk

How is the relation between Turkish government and Taliban government? How do you perceive a number of meetings held between two sides?

Türkiye works very pragmatically with Afghanistan. Because Türkiye sees the things like this: “I want to help them. I want to support them. At the same time, I want to improve the situation in Afghanistan. Because if the situation in Afghanistan improves, it will be a problem for Türkiye.” There is a migrant problem in Türkiye. If the situation in Afghanistan goes worse, it will be a serious problem for Türkiye. At the same time, the stability of the region is directly affected by Türkiye. Years ago, Türkiye’s economy was very good. There were different factors, of course, but main thing was that firstly, Syria, Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan were stable. Because Türkiye was directly affected positively by the stability of the region. But now there is an economic crisis because there is still a crisis in Afghanistan, there is a crisis in Pakistan, there is a crisis in Syria, there is a crisis in Iraq, there is a crisis in Libya. This have directly affected Türkiye. 

Do you say Türkiye experiences economic difficulties mainly because of migrants?

Not only the migrants. There are many Turkish companies that work in Afghanistan. They got big projects from NATO, the US and Afghanistan. They got projects, which were equal to billions of dollars. Türkiye is directly affected in a good way by the good economic situation in Afghanistan previously. Because of this, Türkiye is working very positively, very pragmatically in this region. Because of this, some people in Türkiye say, -and this message comes from our citizens sometimes – Türkiye needs to stop these relations. I think this is not very logical and at the same time it is of no use. Because it can cause the situation get worse. Therefore, I think Türkiye’s presence in Afghanistan is very important. Afghanistan can change the situation with diplomatic, political, and assistance coming from Türkiye. Türkiye is doing very good things in this region.

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