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Conflict among the leaders

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From the recent statements and positions of Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, it appears that he has now become the “nose hair” of the Taliban, especially the leader of this group. Since Stanekzai is also a senior member of the Taliban, his statements have become the headlines of the Afghan media and beyond.

From what Stanekzai says, nothing can be understood except that the Taliban group is not unified as it appears and suffers from internal strife. A conflict that may become more intense. A new and unconfirmed news that has leaked out indicates the escalation of the conflict – Stankzai has fled to Dubai.

It is said that he was sentenced to arrest by the Taliban leader because of his statements. But with the help of other officials of this group, he managed to leave. Of course, after the publication of this news, Stanikzai announced that he was going to rest for a few days without specifying his location. His resting place is not known: Dubai or Kabul?

Of course, talk about the fragmentation of the Taliban had also been raised before, especially after Khalil al-Rahman Haqqani, the former minister of refugee, was assassinated.

More importantly, the replacement of Maulvi Abdul Kabir instead of Haqqani, in which he is also not going to the Ministry of Migration while accepting this position has strengthened the speculations that the Taliban is not unified. But the thing that tore the veil of ambiguity and revealed more things and made the internal rivalry of the Taliban a matter of course in the eyes of many, is Stanekzai’s positions and what is going to happen to him.

There are some points need more considerations

First:

Stanekzai’s criticism of the Taliban leader is not new – with the difference that recently his tone has become more naked compared to the past, to the extent that he has provided many reasons for astonishment. Meanwhile, the mildness of the Taliban leader towards his statements is questionable. In the situation where the rest of the authorities of this group summarize the level of obedience to Mullah Hebatullah Akhundzadeh as “the obedience like a dead”.

So far, Stanekzai has not been arrested nor has any restrictions been placed on his work – rather, with a stronger presence than before in Taliban circles, he has criticized the behavior of his leader towards the education of girls.

Therefore, it is possible that the fight between Stanekzai and the leader is a fabrication as they want to show that there are different views within the Taliban regime, and that its owners have complete freedom in expressing their opinion and are not reprimanded for what they say.

Here, seducing the international community is the goal – it does not seem difficult. If not, considering the rigid and inflexible nature of the Taliban regime, criticism of its members against Mullah Hebatullah is apparently not possible, unless the critic wants to say goodbye to the regime or, in the most pessimistic case, to his life.

Second:

It can be the opposite of the first case – this means that the leader of the Taliban is not able to control Stanekzai. If so, then he is not alone and is definitely being led by a branch of the Taliban. It may benefit from the support of some countries, organizations and foreign personalities.

For example, every time Stanekzai has criticized his leader, Zalamy Khalilzad, the architect of the Doha agreement, has supported him by tweeting and calling it beneficial to remove the Taliban, who are called “pragmatic”. Now that Donald Trump is in the White House, Khalilzad’s statements are a “strong support” for those Taliban officials who were with him in Doha.

Therefore, when Stanekzai is not alone, it is difficult to take action to restrain him. If Mullah Hebatullah does not stop again, it will be inevitable that the tension between the Taliban will increase too much. Something that can sound the alarm of collapse.

Third:

If we look carefully, no factor can weaken the Taliban or shorten the life of this group’s regime as much as internal differences. For this reason, all Taliban officials in their speeches emphasize internal unity and unquestioning obedience to their emir (supreme leader), even Stankzai who is famous for criticizing his leader.

In his recent speech in Kandahar, Mullah Hebatullah warned Taliban members not to be afraid of foreign pressure but to avoid internal differences. Of course, when the Taliban authorities find out that criticizing their leader affects the survival of their regime, they will hold their tongues and do what the supreme leader says.

When the Taliban are caught in internal conflict, the countries that are walking with crutches in the face of this group will find a means to exert pressure. In the meantime, figures from the Taliban who are considered “practical” come to their work. Of course, the story of supporting the opposition forces of the Taliban, who call themselves democratic and alternative to this group, is not included – because in the past three years, they haven’t done even a minimum to restore their reputation and discredit their competitors.

If the internal conflict of the Taliban increases to such an extent that the disaffected members of this group leave Afghanistan willingly or by force, the work will be easier for the world – because the disaffected Taliban get a free platform abroad and regardless of internal pressure, they expose their leader to more pressure, which will have these two consequences: 1 – Mullah Hebatullah tries to obtain the satisfaction of the disaffected and facilitate their safe return to Afghanistan, which will lead to maintaining the internal unity of the Taliban, but with minimal adjustments in form and substance.

2- it does not value the disaffected, and the world paves the ground for dialogue between them and the opposing forces of the Taliban, and the space for the creation of an inclusive government opens up more than in the past. Of course, the second option seems out of reach for now, unless the number of disgruntled Taliban is added. Therefore, the Taliban will try their best to keep Stanekzai alone and not to become “nose hair”.

Fourth:

If we pay close attention, Stanekzai’s frank criticisms are out of goodwill for the Taliban. In the sense that the regime considers the life of this group to depend on Mullah Hebatullah’s change in behavior, not on his broadening the range of restrictions and prohibitions on women’s lives.

Stanekzai is not seeking to establish a comprehensive democratic government in which human rights, elections, inclusion of all ethnic groups, etc,,, are ensured, rather, it is only attached to the education of girls, because of the apparent sensitivity of Westerners on the issue. Stanekzai in his statement said that [only] banning girls from education caused the world to turn against the Taliban. That is, there is no challenge in other fields and the situation is completely as intended.

The result is that the internal conflict of the Taliban is not serious enough to make the leader of this group reconsider his behavior. More importantly, Stankzai will not do anything on his own, except to expose the conflict. In any case, we have to wait and see what the level and depth of the conflict is, what direction it will take, how much the countries are looking for profit and where the story of the Afghanistan case will reach.

ASIA

BYD sales surge 29% on robust hybrid demand in China

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Chinese electric vehicle champion BYD exceeded expectations with a 29% increase in full-year sales, driven by strong demand for plug-in hybrids in its domestic market.

The group’s revenue reached Rmb 777 billion ($107 billion), crossing the $100 billion threshold for the first time. Growing exports also contributed to the sales figures.

Net income rose by 34% to Rmb 40 billion, largely in line with analysts’ estimates of $5.5 billion, according to a Bloomberg survey.

With overseas sales exceeding 400,000 vehicles last year, the Chinese company recently raised approximately $6 billion to finance its expansion plans, setting its sights on further overseas growth.

BYD, which accounted for approximately 16% of cars exported from China in January and February, is building factories in Europe and South America.

The strong figures followed founder Wang Chuanfu’s introduction last week of a new battery charging system that will allow customers to charge electric vehicles in five minutes.

Since the beginning of the year, the Shenzhen-based company has introduced a range of EV technologies, including an advanced driving system called God’s Eye, to make its model lineup more attractive.

BYD’s Hong Kong-listed shares closed up 3% on Monday. The shares have risen more than 50% this year, in stark contrast to Tesla’s 34% decline.

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Sadiq Khan’s prompt trip to Kabul; Pakistan is really sidelined on Afghan front 

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Pakistan’s special envoy to Afghanistan Muhammad Sadiq Khan’s prompt or in “hurry” trip to Kabul could be seen as an act for “immediate” response to US acts ignoring Pakistan in recent developments of establishing direct links with Taliban governing Kabul for the second term since August 15 2021. Prior to Sadiq Khan’s comprehensive trip to Kabul, high powered US officials have made the first ever formal trip to Kabul and held detailed talks with Afghanistan’s foreign minister.

Ironically, both the developments took place soon after high power discussion on National Security issues in parliament, whereas apparently Prime Minister Shehaz Sharif was the most important figure but internally the whole session was dominated by Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Gen. Asim Muneer. First with help from its most trustworthy Qatar, a US team headed by Ambassador Adam Boehlar visited Kabul and got the release and air lifting of George Glezmann, an American airline mechanic to the United States via Qatar Doha. And on the next day, Sadiq Khan, considered most effective and popular in Afghanistan, landed in Kabul for a three day visit.

Though no further details of Sadiq Khan’s engagements in to Kabul is ascertained but a brief statement, is appearing in Rawalpindi-Islamabad controlled media which states, “Pakis­tan and Afghanistan on Saturday vowed to sustain their diplomatic engagement to address ongoing bilateral challenges, including trade, security and the status of Afghan refugees in Pakistan.” Through such statements, Pakistani officials confirmed only Ambassador Muhammad Sadiq’s meeting with Afghanistan’s Acting Foreign Minister, Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi.

Is there any discussion over the prolonged controversial issue of Durand Line

No one can deny the fact that since the return of Taliban into power in mid of August 2021, Pakistan is a head with a stock of confusions. On one hand like of Mullah Muhammad Omar Akhund, his successor Mullah Haibatullah is reluctant to change mind on prolonged controversial issue of Durand Line and on the other the policy makers in Rawalpindi-Islamabad corridors are going towards isolation as the major global players like US, China, Russian Federation and even European Community succeeded in establishing direct links with Kabul. Pakistan is no longer dependent on the global community in handling issues and matters with Kabul.

Soon after his first ever trip to Kabul after August 15th 2021, former US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad who was part of Ambassador Adam Boehlar has criticized the Pakistan Army. Through this latest statement, Khalilzad cautioned Pakistan’s government and military, emphasizing that time is running out to prevent further turmoil. It is his second criticism against Pakistan after May 9th 2023 whereas he had backed the deposed Prime Minister. Now the situation is very clear as Zalmay Khalilzad’s status in US society especially in the ruling Republic is very clear. Almost all Afghans, especially his (Khalilzad) long time friends and familiars are now very clear about his next assignments or agenda.

Another stressful issue is the Torkham crossing for trade in Central and South Asian countries

Besides soon after US team’s trip to Kabul, Pakistan has not only ordered reopening of Torkham border, considered most important corridor between the two neighbouring countries but Sadiq Khan in Kabul and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Governor Faisal Karim Kundi in Peshawar received joint delegations of traders involved in bilateral trade. A report from Kabul revealed, “officials of the Chamber of Commerce and Investment have met with Pakistan’s Special Envoy for Afghanistan Muhammad Sadiq and Obaidur Rahman Nizamani, the head of the Embassy of the country in Kabul and discussed bilateral trade relations and the problems in this area. According to the Chamber of Commerce and Investment Newsletter, Muhammad Younis Momand, Deputy Chief of the Chamber, stressed the importance of the Torkham route for trade in Central and South Asia, which route can connect with other countries in the region like Afghanistan and Pakistan. They have created an increase in grants and by the way, the lockdown can also cause a big loss to the economy of both countries.”

On certain issues, especially Afghans maltreatment, frequent closure of Torkham, imposition of taxes on transit and bilateral trade. Controversial Durand Line and others, Islamabad and Kabul are at loggerhead with each other. 

Though nothing in detail regarding Pakistan’s stance on the issue of terror during his talks with Foreign Minister Mutaqqi appeared in media but Governor Faisal Karim Kundi in his chat with traders repeated, “terrorists are incurring from Afghanistan into Pakistan. 

Afghanistan not only explored alternate trade routes but its sitting rulers made more friends and sympathizers like the US, China and Russian 

Compared to other civil-military officials, Sadiq Khan has long had a realistic approach towards issues with Afghanistan. He believes in talks and dialogues. Unfortunately, high ups occupying important offices in the Rawalpindi-Islamabad corridor are stuck to British colonial rulers’ inherited expansionism based policies towards Afghanistan. Unless and until honouring the importance of talks and consultations and remaining neutral in intra Afghan issues, it could be hard to earn the hearts of Afghans which is a must for tackling the situation that erupted with direct jumping of US and others in the region.

Compared to the past, the regional situation is different. Earlier Pakistan was dealing matters with Afghanistan like a landlocked and under developed country wholly solely depending on Karachi sea port. But now Afghanistan has not only explored alternate trade routes but its sitting rulers made more friends and sympathizers like the US, China and Russian Federation. After the empowerment of Donald Trump, now Washington is making ways and means for converting long time hostilities in friendship with Russia. Similarly growing influence of terror, especially presence of IS-Daesh militants in certain parts of the country, especially along the Pak Afghan border is also much more harmful to the very interests of Pakistan. Instead of remaining hostile to its failed “STRATEGIC Depth” policies inherited by successive military generals, Pakistan must follow the realist politico-diplomatic approaches towards Afghanistan and other neighboring countries.

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India shelves $23 billion plan to rival China’s factories

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According to four government officials, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has decided to suspend a $23 billion program aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing, just four years after launching an effort to lure companies away from China with US support.

Two of the officials, speaking to Reuters, said that the program would not be expanded beyond the 14 pilot sectors, and production timelines would not be extended, despite requests from some participating firms.

According to public records, approximately 750 companies, including Apple supplier Foxconn and Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries, enrolled in the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme.

These firms were promised cash payments if they met individual production targets and deadlines. The goal was to increase manufacturing’s share of the economy to 25% by 2025.

However, according to government documents and correspondence reviewed by Reuters, many firms participating in the program failed to begin production, while others that met production targets found that India was slow to pay the subsidies.

According to an undated analysis of the program compiled by the trade ministry, as of October 2024, participating firms had produced $151.93 billion worth of goods under the program, or 37% of Delhi’s target. The document stated that India had disbursed only $1.73 billion in incentives, less than 8% of the allocated funds.

Reuters was the first to report the news of the government’s decision not to extend the plan and the details regarding the delays in payments.

Modi’s office and the trade ministry, which oversees the program, did not respond to requests for comment. Since the plan was implemented, the manufacturing industry’s share of the economy has decreased from 15.4% to 14.3%.

Foxconn and Reliance, which currently employ thousands of contract workers in India, did not return requests for comment.

Two government officials told Reuters that the termination of the program does not mean that Delhi has abandoned its manufacturing goals, and that alternatives are being planned.

The government had defended the program last year, particularly highlighting its impact on boosting pharmaceutical and mobile phone production. Approximately $620 million, or 94%, of the incentives paid between April and October 2024 were directed to these two sectors.

According to the analysis, some food sector companies that applied for subsidies were not granted incentives due to factors such as “non-compliance with investment thresholds” and the companies’ “failure to achieve the projected minimum growth.” While the document did not provide details, it noted that production in the sector had exceeded targets.

One Indian official, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said that excessive bureaucracy and bureaucratic caution continue to hinder the program’s effectiveness.

Another official said that India is considering supporting specific sectors by partially reimbursing investments made to establish facilities, allowing firms to recover their costs more quickly rather than waiting for production and sales.

Biswajit Dhar, a trade expert at the Council for Social Development, a Delhi-based think tank, said that the country may have missed an opportunity.

Dhar emphasized that the incentive program was “probably the last chance we had to revitalize our manufacturing sector.” He questioned, “If this kind of mega program fails, do you have any expectation that anything will succeed?”

The halt in production coincides with a period when India was trying to navigate the trade war initiated by US President Donald Trump, who criticized Delhi’s protectionist policies.

Dhar said that Trump’s threat of reciprocal tariffs on countries with trade surpluses with the US, such as India, meant that the export sector was becoming increasingly strained. “There was some tariff protection… and all of that will be cut.”

The program was initially launched with US support during a period when China, which has been the world’s factory base for decades, was struggling to maintain production due to its zero-COVID policy.

As the US seeks to reduce its economic dependence on an increasingly assertive Beijing, it has pushed many multinational companies to diversify their production lines and supply chains.

With its large young population, low costs, and a government considered relatively friendly to the West, India seemed poised to benefit from this situation.

In recent years, India has become a global leader in pharmaceutical and mobile phone production.

According to government data, the country produced $49 billion worth of mobile phones in the 2023-24 fiscal year, a 63% increase compared to 2020-21. Industry leaders like Apple, which started with low-cost models, now aim to produce their latest and most sophisticated mobile phones in India as well.

Similarly, pharmaceutical exports nearly doubled in the 2023-24 period compared to a decade earlier, reaching $27.85 billion.

However, this success has not been replicated in other sectors, including steel, textiles, and solar panel production. In many of these areas, India faces fierce competition from rivals like China. According to experts, India currently lacks sufficient systemic and technical infrastructure and trained manpower to carry out this production, and this process may take decades.

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