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Conflict among the leaders

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From the recent statements and positions of Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, it appears that he has now become the “nose hair” of the Taliban, especially the leader of this group. Since Stanekzai is also a senior member of the Taliban, his statements have become the headlines of the Afghan media and beyond.

From what Stanekzai says, nothing can be understood except that the Taliban group is not unified as it appears and suffers from internal strife. A conflict that may become more intense. A new and unconfirmed news that has leaked out indicates the escalation of the conflict – Stankzai has fled to Dubai.

It is said that he was sentenced to arrest by the Taliban leader because of his statements. But with the help of other officials of this group, he managed to leave. Of course, after the publication of this news, Stanikzai announced that he was going to rest for a few days without specifying his location. His resting place is not known: Dubai or Kabul?

Of course, talk about the fragmentation of the Taliban had also been raised before, especially after Khalil al-Rahman Haqqani, the former minister of refugee, was assassinated.

More importantly, the replacement of Maulvi Abdul Kabir instead of Haqqani, in which he is also not going to the Ministry of Migration while accepting this position has strengthened the speculations that the Taliban is not unified. But the thing that tore the veil of ambiguity and revealed more things and made the internal rivalry of the Taliban a matter of course in the eyes of many, is Stanekzai’s positions and what is going to happen to him.

There are some points need more considerations

First:

Stanekzai’s criticism of the Taliban leader is not new – with the difference that recently his tone has become more naked compared to the past, to the extent that he has provided many reasons for astonishment. Meanwhile, the mildness of the Taliban leader towards his statements is questionable. In the situation where the rest of the authorities of this group summarize the level of obedience to Mullah Hebatullah Akhundzadeh as “the obedience like a dead”.

So far, Stanekzai has not been arrested nor has any restrictions been placed on his work – rather, with a stronger presence than before in Taliban circles, he has criticized the behavior of his leader towards the education of girls.

Therefore, it is possible that the fight between Stanekzai and the leader is a fabrication as they want to show that there are different views within the Taliban regime, and that its owners have complete freedom in expressing their opinion and are not reprimanded for what they say.

Here, seducing the international community is the goal – it does not seem difficult. If not, considering the rigid and inflexible nature of the Taliban regime, criticism of its members against Mullah Hebatullah is apparently not possible, unless the critic wants to say goodbye to the regime or, in the most pessimistic case, to his life.

Second:

It can be the opposite of the first case – this means that the leader of the Taliban is not able to control Stanekzai. If so, then he is not alone and is definitely being led by a branch of the Taliban. It may benefit from the support of some countries, organizations and foreign personalities.

For example, every time Stanekzai has criticized his leader, Zalamy Khalilzad, the architect of the Doha agreement, has supported him by tweeting and calling it beneficial to remove the Taliban, who are called “pragmatic”. Now that Donald Trump is in the White House, Khalilzad’s statements are a “strong support” for those Taliban officials who were with him in Doha.

Therefore, when Stanekzai is not alone, it is difficult to take action to restrain him. If Mullah Hebatullah does not stop again, it will be inevitable that the tension between the Taliban will increase too much. Something that can sound the alarm of collapse.

Third:

If we look carefully, no factor can weaken the Taliban or shorten the life of this group’s regime as much as internal differences. For this reason, all Taliban officials in their speeches emphasize internal unity and unquestioning obedience to their emir (supreme leader), even Stankzai who is famous for criticizing his leader.

In his recent speech in Kandahar, Mullah Hebatullah warned Taliban members not to be afraid of foreign pressure but to avoid internal differences. Of course, when the Taliban authorities find out that criticizing their leader affects the survival of their regime, they will hold their tongues and do what the supreme leader says.

When the Taliban are caught in internal conflict, the countries that are walking with crutches in the face of this group will find a means to exert pressure. In the meantime, figures from the Taliban who are considered “practical” come to their work. Of course, the story of supporting the opposition forces of the Taliban, who call themselves democratic and alternative to this group, is not included – because in the past three years, they haven’t done even a minimum to restore their reputation and discredit their competitors.

If the internal conflict of the Taliban increases to such an extent that the disaffected members of this group leave Afghanistan willingly or by force, the work will be easier for the world – because the disaffected Taliban get a free platform abroad and regardless of internal pressure, they expose their leader to more pressure, which will have these two consequences: 1 – Mullah Hebatullah tries to obtain the satisfaction of the disaffected and facilitate their safe return to Afghanistan, which will lead to maintaining the internal unity of the Taliban, but with minimal adjustments in form and substance.

2- it does not value the disaffected, and the world paves the ground for dialogue between them and the opposing forces of the Taliban, and the space for the creation of an inclusive government opens up more than in the past. Of course, the second option seems out of reach for now, unless the number of disgruntled Taliban is added. Therefore, the Taliban will try their best to keep Stanekzai alone and not to become “nose hair”.

Fourth:

If we pay close attention, Stanekzai’s frank criticisms are out of goodwill for the Taliban. In the sense that the regime considers the life of this group to depend on Mullah Hebatullah’s change in behavior, not on his broadening the range of restrictions and prohibitions on women’s lives.

Stanekzai is not seeking to establish a comprehensive democratic government in which human rights, elections, inclusion of all ethnic groups, etc,,, are ensured, rather, it is only attached to the education of girls, because of the apparent sensitivity of Westerners on the issue. Stanekzai in his statement said that [only] banning girls from education caused the world to turn against the Taliban. That is, there is no challenge in other fields and the situation is completely as intended.

The result is that the internal conflict of the Taliban is not serious enough to make the leader of this group reconsider his behavior. More importantly, Stankzai will not do anything on his own, except to expose the conflict. In any case, we have to wait and see what the level and depth of the conflict is, what direction it will take, how much the countries are looking for profit and where the story of the Afghanistan case will reach.

ASIA

Interest rates in Australia reduced for the first time since 2020

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The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years on Tuesday but warned it was too early to declare victory over inflation and was cautious about the possibility of further easing.

The rate cut will provide some relief to borrowers and will be good news for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who faces a tough election on May 17 at the latest. Speculation is growing that Albanese may use this opportunity to call for early elections.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which completed its February policy meeting, cut the cash rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.1%, the first cut since November 2020, when the pandemic crisis pushed interest rates to an all-time low of 0.1%.

Markets had largely bet on a quarter-point cut after core inflation surprised to the downside at 3.2% in the fourth quarter. Swaps pointed to only an 18% probability of the next cut in April, but a move in May is still almost fully priced in.

‘While today’s policy decision acknowledges the welcome progress in inflation, the Committee remains cautious about the prospects for further policy easing,’ the Committee said, noting that upside risks to inflation persist due to the strong labor market.

‘The Committee’s assessment is that monetary policy is restrictive and will remain so after this reduction in the cash rate.’

The Australian dollar fell 0.1 percent to $0.6352, while three-year bond futures fell 5 ticks to 96.08 as Governor Michele Bullock retracted market pricing of two more rate cuts this year at the press conference.

‘I want to be very clear that today’s decision does not mean that future rate cuts will come along the lines suggested by the market,’ said Bullock, who later described market pricing as “unrealistic.”

‘The Committee needs more data that inflation continues to fall before making decisions about the future,’ he added.

The board, which opened the door to a rate cut in December, warned that the decline in inflation could stall if monetary policy was loosened too much too soon.

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ASIA

Disagreement with supreme leader: Sirajuddin Haqqani yet to return Afghanistan

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Reliable sources have said that Taliban Interior Minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani has not returned to Afghanistan after about a month. This is while the spokesperson of the Taliban 14 days ago said that Haqqani has returned to the country after the end of his trip from UAE and Saudi Arabia.

The Taliban has not published any news about Sirajuddin Haqqani’s activities in the past few weeks.

Two sources told Harici that the reason for Haqqani’s return is “dissatisfaction with the unilateral decisions” of the Taliban leader.

The Taliban announced a month ago that Sirajuddin Haqqani went to the United Arab Emirates together with Abdul Haq Wasiq, the head of the group’s intelligence.

Abbas Stanekzai, the political deputy of the Taliban’s foreign ministry, was also forced to leave Afghanistan and seek refuge in the United Arab Emirates due to criticism of the Taliban supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada’s policies, especially regarding women’s education.

According to reports, Haqqani and Stanekzai are part of the pragmatic figures of the Taliban who are worried about the consequences of the Taliban leader’s decisions.

Haqqani is unhappy with Taliban leader’s decision on girls education and women’s work

A source told Harici that Haqqani is unhappy with the Taliban leader’s orders regarding the education of women and girls.

He added that Haqqani also considers the transfer of special forces, weapons and other military equipment to Kandahar as Akhundzada’s attempt to concentrate power and isolate influential figures of the Taliban.

In a new move, Akhundzada has ordered the transfer of the 313rd Badr Army Corps, which was under the influence of the Haqqani network, to Kandahar, which has increased the scope of disputes between Haqqani and Akhundzada.

It is said that Akhundzada removed Azizuddin, the former commander of Badr and the brother of the Minister of Interior, from the leadership of this unit after being summoned to Kandahar.

The Taliban leader has also dismissed Kandahar’s security commander, who was in charge of the interior minister’s responsibilities, in Haqqani’s absence, and appointed a new commander in his place.

By changing the positions under Sirajuddin Haqqani, Hebatullah Akhundzada has shown that he has the first and last word in determining the government of this group. Akhundzada recently appointed Maulvi Abdul Ahad Taleb, one of his trusted people, as the police commander of Kandahar. It seems that this designation has been made to protect the Taliban leader as much as possible against threats such as internal coups and ISIS attacks.

Haqqani and Stanekzai in Dubai, but Mullah Baradar in Doha

A credible source told Harici that Sirajuddin Haqqani lives in the United Arab Emirates with his mother, who is an Arab.

On his trip to Dubai, after meeting with the officials of this country, Haqqani went to Saudi Arabia to perform Umrah. He already went to Umran once but gong for the second time in one year could be described as an unusual decision.

On December 27, the UN Security Council announced that Mullah Baradar, the economic deputy of the Taliban prime minister, had traveled to Qatar for a one-month treatment.

The frequent and non-returning trips of senior Taliban officials in recent months have strengthened the speculations that the dissatisfaction in the Taliban group is increasing.

Earlier this year, the United Nations Security Council issued a travel ban waiver for three high-ranking Taliban officials to travel to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates for religious and diplomatic purposes.

In the meantime, the aforementioned committee approved the exemption of Sirajuddin Haqqani’s travel on the second day of this year and allowed him to travel to Saudi Arabia from the 3rd to the 14th of the month to perform Umrah.

The UN Security Council also approved Mullah Baradar’s travel exemption for one month and he left for Qatar. Mullah Baradar met with the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar in Doha last week.

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Afghan refugees: Between violence and misery from Iran to Pakistan

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Thousands of Afghan refugees in Pakistan and Iran are in misery and under the pressure of the violent behavior of the police of these countries. These asylum seekers, who have sought refuge in these two countries due to the fear of Taliban retaliation, increasing poverty and unemployment, and pursuing immigration cases to Western countries, are highly exposed to violence and forced deportation.

The police of Iran and Pakistan arrest, torture and deport hundreds of people every day and in this process, they blackmail them and ignore their rights to stay as a refugee in respective countries and humiliated their dignity.

The immigrants who have taken refuge in these two countries say that they do not have any kind of legal immunity and police forcefully and violently deport them whenever they want. Some refugees were deported even with the legal stay documents, and there is no accountable institution to hear their voices.

Some asylum seekers, who work in Iran, say that their employers sometimes do not pay their salaries and threaten to hand them over to the police if they demand their salaries.

After the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, thousands of Afghans, who have sought refuge in Iran and Pakistan due to the fear of Taliban revenge, increasing poverty and unemployment, and pursuing immigration cases in Western countries, are severely facing the violent behavior of the police of these two countries and say that their lives and property are not protected in these countries.

According to them, Afghan refugees in these two countries are severely discriminated, oppressed and misbehaved, and the police of Iran and Pakistan, despite extortion and blackmail, forcefully and violently deport them.

Pakistani police even mistreat even Afghans who have legal stay doucments 

Farkhunda, one of the Afghan refugees, said that the Pakistani government should treat the Afghans in Pakistan like citizens of other countries who travel to this country with visas and legal documents.

“We traveled to Pakistan with a visa,” she says. We experienced a lot of pain in our homeland and we came to Pakistan with hope. We are Muslims and Pakistanis are also Muslims, so we expect them to treat us as Muslims as Mulims are brother and sister to each other.”

Another Afghan refugee in Pakistan, Ajmal said that he is fed up with the pressure of the Pakistani police. He furthered: “All our words are about the Pakistani police. Women, men and children all talk about the police and think about them. Police behavior is inhumane.”

On the one hand, people’s spirits are ruined due to the suspension of their cases, and on the other hand, the police have made their times bitter. “They (police) all come around every day and now they go around in plain clothes, which makes the situation more complicated and makes it difficult to identify them. We don’t know what to do.”

Meanwhile, following the suspension of the US refugee program, Pakistan has intensified the pressure on Afghan refugees who have gone to this country to process their immigration cases.

Pakistan Prime Minister, Shahbaz Sharif has recently ordered that Afghan Identity Card (ACC) holders should immediately leave Islamabad and Rawalpindi and be deported to Afghanistan along with other undocumented migrants.

According to the order of Sharif, Afghan immigrants who have gone to this country for resettlement in third countries, must leave these two states by March 31, 2025.

Afghans working in different Iranian companies complain of not receiving their wages

Meanwhile, a number of Afghan refugees who work in different cities of Iran say that in addition to the discriminatory and violent behavior of the police, they also face abuse from their employers.

According to them, Iranian employers in some areas do not pay their wages at the end of the month and warn that if they ask for their salaries, they will be handed over to the police to be fired. These asylum seekers remain silent because of the fear to be deported back to Afghanistan.

One of the asylum seekers in Iran, who does not want to be named, says that more than 10 million Iranian money of his salary remained with his Iranian employer, which has not been paid to yet.

“Imagine a person with all the problems, leaving his/her homeland, and being away from his parents and children, going through countless sufferings, and after going through many dangers, such as a car overturning and passing through difficult obstacles, he arrives in Iran. Enduring all this suffering and working from eight in the morning to five in the evening, he sweats with pox-ridden hands in the scorching heat of summer and the cold of winter, but in the end, the Iranian employer does not even pay his meager salary,” he lamented.

On the other hand, Afghan refugees in Iran, in addition to forced deportation, are also prohibited from employment in many jobs in this country. Iranian authorities have ordered employers to refrain from hiring Afghan immigrant citizens in various jobs and only employ them in a few sectors such as construction and hard work.

Also, shops and restaurants that employ non-Iranian workers will be closed.

Earlier, the International Organization for Migration reported that from January to December 2024, more than 1.2 million migrants returned to Afghanistan, of which 67pc were deported. According to this organization, approximately four million Afghan citizens have sought refuge in Iran, but Iranian officials claim that the number of these migrants reaches eight million.

Afghan refugees in Pakistan and Iran face many problems. Many families do not have the ability to send their children to schools and universities and are not recruited in government institutions. According to the refugees, in the last three years, thousands of migrant children have been deprived of education and live in complete uncertainty. They expect that the western countries, especially the United States, will not leave them in this situation and take action to evacuate them in other countries.

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